I do talk to my villagers. I've played every day since the US launch last year. My schedule's been a bit off the last few days and I've been playing a couple hours before this villager even wakes up. The others didn't mention any moving rumors and it didn't occur to me that I was due for a mover until it was too late.
I definitely understand those who support the idea that players should be punished by villagers moving out unexpectedly but I've come around to the other side. I was there every day, talking to everyone, running errands, and earning yet more duplicate pictures, but I got unlucky that moving rumors didn't come up. I'd developed a false sense of security after playing the game without incident for such a long time. I'll be much more careful going forward.
It still seems a shame though that I don't have the option to change the mind of a villager who's still technically a resident in my town.