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[Arkos]

May I ask why power roles aren't revealed (just the fact that they exist or not)? I was under the impression, as someone else mentioned, that we would at least know what at least some power roles were (even if not all of them or how many). Can somebody (I) just make up a power role and say I have it? How do we know who to believe if someone claims a power role?

In aware this isn't totally on topic but it's something I've been wondering about the overall scheme of things.

As for who to lynch, I'll get back to you on that once I get in front of a computer (mobile now). I do think it's worth pointing out that if someone like squidyj or Mazre or Palmer (the experienced, talkative players) is mafia, it's not like they're going to just suddenly be quiet. I think for these players especially their talkativeness isn't necessarily indicative of anything.

 

[roytheone]

Are people irritated that it's first come first serve? Or that they they're in the wrong timezone to have easily taken advantage of first come first serve?

I'm not intending to sabotage any attempts at organization. I just think efforts to regulate it will be harmful to Town in the long run. There's very little info today to base any decisions on, but we should have more tomorrow. If we use some arbitrary system instead, it will just stifle potentially useful arguments and probably detract from the most important voting: who to lynch.

The main reason why I wanted to change the system is that with first come first serve, the KGB will have a relatively easy time to get a mole in every mission. Especially when people don't give reasons why they did volunteer and nobody challenges the claims. By implementing a system of sort, I hope to force people to explain WHY they want to go on a mission, and give everyone the chance to challenge those reasons. That way, a KGB member would have to go into open discussion if they want to infiltrate a mission, which will give us more information to go on.

But I do agree that our time in day 1 is slowly ticking away, so I think we should keep discussion it until we are at the 2 days left mark, and after that we focus purely on the lynch vote.

 

[Palmer_v1]

May I ask why power roles aren't revealed (just the fact that they exist or not)? I was under the impression, as someone else mentioned, that we would at least know what at least some power roles were (even if not all of them or how many). Can somebody (I) just make up a power role and say I have it? How do we know who to believe if someone claims a power role?

In aware this isn't totally on topic but it's something I've been wondering about the overall scheme of things.

As for who to lynch, I'll get back to you on that once I get in front of a computer (mobile now). I do think it's worth pointing out that if someone like squidyj or Mazre or Palmer (the experienced, talkative players) is mafia, it's not like they're going to just suddenly be quiet. I think for these players especially their talkativeness isn't necessarily indicative of anything.

Basically, once you get to a certain number of players, you could just have everyone claim their role, forcing the Mafia to counter claim a few roles. Then you kill the duplicates until you win. Not announcing roles or even number of Mafia dodges this issue.

So yes, people can make up any kind of role they want. It's usually best to use an actual role as your fake claim, but you can theoretically do whatever you want.

You will not always know if you can trust a role claim, which is why you should watch their overall behavior to see if they seem to have been helping town or not. Sometimes they'll slip up and claim something that someone else knows is wrong as well.

You're also correct that a good Mafia player is going to try not to act noticeably different from game to game. I was stressed out in Star Wars game because while my overall posting frequency stayed fairly consistent, I was mostly just reacting to other people's posts instead of actually trying to hunt down other player's inconsistencies.

As for my vote for today, I think one of the 4 volunteers are likely to be Mafia, and I can't resist odds that good this early in the game.

Vote: Mazre

I feel like Arkos, Tiger, and Mazre have posted similarly, but Arkos and Tiger both came out of the gate with fundamental misunderstandings of how the missions work. I don't think a Mafia player who has had two days to coordinate would have done that. It could just be a ploy, but I doubt it. That leaves Mazre and myself. I obviously won't vote for myself, but I strongly urge everyone to consider the 4 of us carefully, and Mazre and myself especially.

 

[Palmer_v1]

The main reason why I wanted to change the system is that with first come first serve, the KGB will have a relatively easy time to get a mole in every mission. Especially when people don't give reasons why they did volunteer and nobody challenges the claims. By implementing a system of sort, I hope to force people to explain WHY they want to go on a mission, and give everyone the chance to challenge those reasons. That way, a KGB member would have to go into open discussion if they want to infiltrate a mission, which will give us more information to go on.

But I do agree that our time in day 1 is slowly ticking away, so I think we should keep discussion it until we are at the 2 days left mark, and after that we focus purely on the lynch vote.

I might have missed it, but do you agree with my specific reason for wanting to volunteer? I think I'm the only one that has actually put forth any actual justification, valid or not.

 

[Razmos]

I think voting for someone inactive is a better idea than voting for a volunteer at this point. We should see how the first mission works and just let it happen.

If something happens on the mission then we have something to go on and can act accordingly on later days, until then we should go for a safe lynch as if we were playing a normal game.

 

[Zubz]

XD I saw your post wanting to make "GAFia" happens <33333333

Wait, other people are trying to make GAFia happen? I thought I was being original there! I'm on board for that, though.

Vote: Mazre

I feel like Arkos, Tiger, and Mazre have posted similarly, but Arkos and Tiger both came out of the gate with fundamental misunderstandings of how the missions work. I don't think a Mafia player who has had two days to coordinate would have done that. It could just be a ploy, but I doubt it. That leaves Mazre and myself. I obviously won't vote for myself, but I strongly urge everyone to consider the 4 of us carefully, and Mazre and myself especially.

Yeah. No offense, but out of those 4, your skills actually have me more suspicious of you than the other 3. But I guess I don't want to go after you merely because you're a "high value target," as it were. Plus, you can't be on the Evil team every time, right? ... Right? I appreciate your honestly in acknowledging your suspiciousness here, too, despite having a valid reason.

I picked Tiger over the other 3 early bird volunteers because of the reasons listed above, because people seemed to be going after Mazre before Palmer even voted, and because Arkos seems a bit confused, so I doubt he has KGB buddies to fill him in on everything in their pre-game thread. ... Which could be a ruse, and he's a seasoned Mafia/Werewolf player just hustling us.

But again, it's Day 1. We have considerably more than we would on Day 1 than, like, almost any other game of Mafia/Werewolf due to the volunteer system and how people approached it, yet at the end of the day, it's still relatively insignificant.

 

[roytheone]

I might have missed it, but do you agree with my specific reason for wanting to volunteer? I think I'm the only one that has actually put forth any actual justification, valid or not.

You mean your reason that you think the KGB side sees you as a strong player, so they would want to night kill you, and being on a mission gives some defense against that? It isn't the worst reason, and would be a good way to help defend our most active/helpful players, those are most likely to be targeted first. Anyway, with the lack of information about missions and roles currently I can't think of many more concrete reasons to volunteer for the first mission right now. Still, I would love to hear from the other volunteers what their reasons are for volunteering.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

I think I saw some people talking about having a Power Role go on a mission would restrict their ability. It is true but there is an advantage. It would provide a little protection from the KGB. Once we find an investigative type role and we can have him take one on one missions with members to clear them. Assuming we can clear the investigator from being a Francomp situation.

 

[roytheone]

Yeah. No offense, but out of those 4, your skills actually have me more suspicious of you than the other 3. But I guess I don't want to go after you merely because you're a "high value target," as it were. Plus, you can't be on the Evil team every time, right? ... Right? I appreciate your honestly in acknowledging your suspiciousness here, too, despite having a valid reason.

Actually, the fact that palmer_v1 has a lot of experience with this game is one of the reasons I am currently very hesitant to vote for him, even though he is high on my suspect list currently. A day 1 vote will always be based on flimsy evidence and hunches, we simply don't have a lot to go on. Therefore, I tend to want to avoid voting on a high profile player simply because the chance we are wrong and accidentally kill a very useful town player is to big. When there is more concrete evidence against a high profile player I will consider it, but I will not risk it based on the lack of information we have on day 1. I rather lower the risk by voting on a player that is of less potential use to the town.

 

[Mike_Hawk689]

To be honest, I haven't really had much time to look over this thread and actively participate to due constraints that I have in life. Even if I didn't participate, I feel that most of the conversation is going around how we pick the volunteers for the mission. So here's my take in the missions. As this give a small twist, I kinda like it since it resembles Avalon, but also since you get better chances at finding the KGB. For example, if two or more mafia are in the missions, at least one will unvolunteer to lower the chances of being read/caught by any power role.
Going to my first assumptions in my few posts, I still believe one mafia/KGB is one of the first four. Why? Again, due to the fact that Ouro gave them a couple of days to strategize. I believe they probably had more insight on these missions that we currently due. They probably understood the whole concept way before us and where able to stagger their volunteering to make sure to be in every mission they can to keep an eye on everyone. I'm sure most people remember that the gossip chats in AC had many role claims. (Though I don't know if they were completely true because I didnt read the side chats.)
Keeping in mind that missions were understood by mafia/KGB, they knew who to volunteer and when. Meaning that any people who are asking for a complete change of the volunteering process are good in my book, since this flushes the strategy the mafia/KGB probably set up before Malory quickly fired the trigger to the start of this game.
I do find it pretty suspicious that Mazre was insanely fast to volunteer. Did he get a notice before all of us in their private chat? Or was he just lucky with the timing?

TLDR: Mafia had time to plan to volunteer. 1 mafia should be in the top 4 volunteer when the game started. People who are opting to change the volunteering process should be townies/drones as they are trashing mafia's plan. + *suspiciously looking at Mazre*

 

[Mike_Hawk689]

I think I saw some people talking about having a Power Role go on a mission would restrict their ability. It is true but there is an advantage. It would provide a little protection from the KGB. Once we find an investigative type role and we can have him take one on one missions with members to clear them. Assuming we can clear the investigator from being a Francomp situation.

Can you explain the Francomp situation?

The thing is if everyone know who the investigating role is that means mafia knows it too. Unless a doctor follows that role to the mission, I wouldn't role claim as an investigator.
What I would do as an investigating role would to go into the mission and find the mafia (1/3 odds) and report back the next day, we all vote to lynch and during the night the doctor saves that person (assuming both are not in missions)

 

[Razmos]

Can you explain the Francomp situation?

The thing is if everyone know who the investigating role is that means mafia knows it too. Unless a doctor follows that role to the mission, I wouldn't role claim as an investigator.
What I would do as an investigating role would to go into the mission and find the mafia (1/3 odds) and report back the next day, we all vote to lynch and during the night the doctor saves that person (assuming both are not in missions)

Francorp was the investigator in the Animal Crossing game, and also a dirty mafia scum. He didn't get lynched until quite late on because of reasons.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Can you explain the Francomp situation?

Mafia with investigative role. People always found him suspicious but he could confirm people's roles so that bought him some legitimacy. We evicted him and saw he was mafia and had to go thru whether or not that reads he gave on ppl were him telling the truth or covering for him mafia buddies.

 

[Mike_Hawk689]

Francorp was the investigator in the Animal Crossing game, and also a dirty mafia scum. He didn't get lynched until quite late on because of reasons.

Ah I see, I didn't know you could be an investigator role and also be mafia...
I've only have experience with Werewolves format (IRL) D:
Sorry for my newbness

 

[Palmer_v1]

Thanks for the reply, Roy.

The little timers are blocked for me at work, can someone tell me how many hours we have left in this Day?

I really think everyone needs to have a vote in by the 48 hour mark, and ideally, always have a vote in play for the rest of the game. I don't agree with No Lynch votes, but can see the arguments. Not voting at all is simply unacceptable.

 

[Arkos]

Basically, once you get to a certain number of players, you could just have everyone claim their role, forcing the Mafia to counter claim a few roles. Then you kill the duplicates until you win. Not announcing roles or even number of Mafia dodges this issue.

Ok, I understand that.

So yes, people can make up any kind of role they want. It's usually best to use an actual role as your fake claim, but you can theoretically do whatever you want.

Alright then, in that case I claim the power of ANTS, whereby I can create in another player the sensation that wretched, horrible ants are crawling all over their body. For example,

ANTS: Mazre

The name of my power role? Ant Man

Spoiler

I'm sorry

Francorp was the investigator in the Animal Crossing game, and also a dirty mafia scum. He didn't get lynched until quite late on because of reasons.

So he was a mafia and an investigator? In that case did the town also have an investigator? That seems messed up for the only investigator to also be mafia.

 

[Mike_Hawk689]

Night 1 Starts at:

2 days , 4 hours, 3 minutes left.
End August 6th 5pm EST

 

[Palmer_v1]

Ok, I understand that.



Alright then, in that case I claim the power of ANTS, whereby I can create in another player the sensation that wretched, horrible ants are crawling all over their body. For example,

ANTS: Mazre

The name of my power role? Ant Man

Spoiler

I'm sorry

So he was a mafia and an investigator? In that case did the town also have an investigator? That seems messed up for the only investigator to also be mafia.

Town had Watchers or Trackers instead. He was also hampered by being in a Condo with another player, and thus an easy eviction choice.

 

[Razmos]

So he was a mafia and an investigator? In that case did the town also have an investigator? That seems messed up for the only investigator to also be mafia.

We didn't, no.
I mean we won regardless so it didn't give the mafia too much of an advantage.

I'm gonna toss out a random VOTE: Burbeting because his experience scares me.

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

I'll be honest I am leaning toward Mazre if going by the theory one of the four in the mission is KGB. The only thing that makes me hesitant is KGB had two days to coordinate and they could have predicted us going this way. So, instead they could be pushing us to lynch someone in the mission group in order to Have town lynch an innocent person and then also get one of their KGB into the Mission group. But, I dunno I could be overthinking this.

 

[roytheone]

I'll be honest I am leaning toward Mazre if going by the theory one of the four in the mission is KGB. The only thing that makes me hesitant is KGB had two days to coordinate and they could have predicted us going this way. So, instead they could be pushing us to lynch someone in the mission group in order to Have town lynch an innocent person and then also get one of their KGB into the Mission group. But, I dunno I could be overthinking this.

So with this logic Haly would be the KGB member? I think this is kinda reaching, because it would mean that the KGB would need to get someone to claim volunteer as the fifth person, that is quite hard to do and a big risk to take.

 

[Palmer_v1]

So with this logic Haly would be the KGB member? I think this is kinda reaching, because it would mean that the KGB would need to get someone to claim volunteer as the fifth person, that is quite hard to do and a big risk to take.

To me, Tiger's comment read like a Mafia realizing they might be in a more dangerous position than expected, and jumping on the Mazre bandwagon to keep votes off himself.

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

To me, Tiger's comment read like a Mafia realizing they might be in a more dangerous position than expected, and jumping on the Mazre bandwagon to keep votes off himself.

While, true I feel like if I was mafia I would do that if I was getting a lot of heat on me and as it stands I only have one vote. And people really haven't been putting any heat on me besides really you, zubs, and squid.

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

Also, if I KGB and was "hopping onto the Mazre bandwagon" I feel like I wouldn't even present a second theory that would help Mazre. I would go on the all-attack and try to get people to vote Mazre to ensure my safety. As it stands now, with your earlier assessment, I honestly agree with your earlier assessment about voting for people with fluff and inactivity.

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

So, with that I vote
VOTE: Septimus Prime/highlight]
because bedsides maybe catching Palmer slip he's mafia. Really hasn't done anything.

 

[roytheone]

slightly unrelated question: does somebody know an easy way to check all the post a person has made in this thread? It is such a drag to manually search every page. Also, tiger, you should fix your tags before Ourobolus yells at you.

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

So, with that I vote
VOTE: Septimus Prime/highlight]
because bedsides maybe catching Palmer slip he's mafia. Really hasn't done anything.

gosh dangit
Vote: Septimus Prime

 

[Ourobolus]

He's lucky I'm on vacation.

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

slightly unrelated question: does somebody know an easy way to check all the post a person has made in this thread? It is such a drag to manually search every page. Also, tiger, you should fix your tags before Ourobolus yells at you.

If your on the computer there should be a search button right next to the subscribe button click advanced and then you can search by user.

Also yeah fixed

 

[Hobohodo]

As I'm going to be heading out for the night and I want to get a vote thrown out there I am going to go ahead and...

VOTE: Great LordTiger

I've been having a funny feeling about him from the off due to the misunderstanding of clear rules and he is in the group of initial volunteers. I may have limited mobile access to keep up with the game but not really going to be able to post a whole bunch, hence I wanna chuck up a vote now.

 

[Palmer_v1]

slightly unrelated question: does somebody know an easy way to check all the post a person has made in this thread? It is such a drag to manually search every page. Also, tiger, you should fix your tags before Ourobolus yells at you.

The way I do it is via the actual Community sub-forum. When you see the Archer thread in there(you might have to scroll), you'll see on the right the number of posts in the thread, which is actually a hyperlink. Click it and you'll get a list of posters and how many posts they have, which is another hyperlink that opens all of their posts from the thread, starting with most recent.

There is probably a better way via just using the search this thread function.

 

[QuantumBro]

slightly unrelated question: does somebody know an easy way to check all the post a person has made in this thread? It is such a drag to manually search every page. Also, tiger, you should fix your tags before Ourobolus yells at you.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=1085504

Click on the name of the person who's post you want to view.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

slightly unrelated question: does somebody know an easy way to check all the post a person has made in this thread? It is such a drag to manually search every page. Also, tiger, you should fix your tags before Ourobolus yells at you.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=1085504
click number in the last column to be taken to their posts.

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

The way I do it is via the actual Community sub-forum. When you see the Archer thread in there(you might have to scroll), you'll see on the right the number of posts in the thread, which is actually a hyperlink. Click it and you'll get a list of posters and how many posts they have, which is another hyperlink that opens all of their posts from the thread, starting with most recent.

There is probably a better way via just using the search this thread function.

Thanks Palmer that is a way better way than mine.

 

[Zubz]

So, with that I vote
VOTE: Septimus Prime/highlight]
because bedsides maybe catching Palmer slip he's mafia. Really hasn't done anything.

Yeah, but after Star Wars Mafia, he may have made a Mafia claim to hide the fact he had a power role. It worked very well for our Seer/Cop and Armorer last time!

Spoiler

That's a joke. It did not. Well, it was a hoot-and-a-half, but it led to our two strongest roles dying early.

Also, my opinion on Tiger still stands. Entirely on one leg, wobbly, on a mountain top. But it stands.

 

[roytheone]

The way I do it is via the actual Community sub-forum. When you see the Archer thread in there(you might have to scroll), you'll see on the right the number of posts in the thread, which is actually a hyperlink. Click it and you'll get a list of posters and how many posts they have, which is another hyperlink that opens all of their posts from the thread, starting with most recent.

There is probably a better way via just using the search this thread function.

Huh, i just get this message:

This forum requires that you wait 30 seconds between searches. Please try again in 30 seconds.

Over and over again.

 

[Palmer_v1]

Huh, i just get this message:

This forum requires that you wait 30 seconds between searches. Please try again in 30 seconds.

Over and over again.

Oh, you can't do it more than once every 60 seconds, i think. Like I went through the volunteers earlier, but only opened their posts one at a time.

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

Yeah, but after Star Wars Mafia, he may have made a Mafia claim to hide the fact he had a power role. It worked very well for our Seer/Cop and Armorer last time!

Spoiler

That's a joke. It did not. Well, it was a hoot-and-a-half, but it led to our two strongest roles dying early.

Also, my opinion on Tiger still stands. Entirely on one leg, wobbly, on a mountain top. But it stands.

If that's how you feel its how you feel, with there being so little info,being day 1, me getting into the mission group, and being a newb its hard to have a really good convincing argument on why I'm not KGB.

gosh dangit
Vote: Septimus Prime

Also, for a guy that recently graduated Highschool

Vote: Septimus Prime

I need to learn how to read.

 

[squidyj]

I think mafia are voting in the 4, I think they either know that there isn't a mafia in that group or are confident that they can get us to lynch the wrong one. I think we need to look outside that group for today's lynch. I was hoping someone would comment on my Razmos vote and argument but it seems like discussion swept away from that. hunh.

 

[squidyj]

Oh right, Haly, if palmer didn't comply with the rules we established for volunteering I'd brutally murder him. That's part of the point of implementing a system that controls mission members, If we go first come first serve or whatever we simply turn a blind eye to the fox in the henhouse. You also characterized it as what I want, which it is but I want it because I believe it is better for town to have a system of control than chaos so I'm not willing to give up the game to mafia because someone doesn't like it.

 

[QuantumBro]

I think mafia are voting in the 4, I think they either know that there isn't a mafia in that group or are confident that they can get us to lynch the wrong one. I think we need to look outside that group for today's lynch. I was hoping someone would comment on my Razmos vote and argument but it seems like discussion swept away from that. hunh.

If there's not a mafia member in the first four, then I'm guessing there's at least one among the 8 or so players that volunteered in the first hour of the game. Seems unlikely that they wouldn't at least try to put one ace in that hole.

 

[roytheone]

Alright, because my own set deadline of discussing the volunteer system is approaching, this is the way I think we should go:

We will use the "moving down the list" method from day 2 onward, until we have a better sense how missions work and of each other, then we switch over to the "top town/ bottom scum" method.

I think this is a good combination to give the KGB as little power as possible to manipulate missions, but also prevent way to long discussions that will draw attention away from what really matters.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

VOTE: Cooljeanius

Already explained earlier. Posts but seems mostly filler.

 

[Septimus Prime]

Hello!

Vote: GreatLord Tiger

I was aiming for a no-lynch first day, but...now it's Tit for Tat.

 

[GreatLord Tiger]

Hello!

Vote: GreatLord Tiger

I was aiming for a no-lynch first day, but...now it's Tit for Tat.

That's fair. Any particular reason you were aiming for no-lynch.

 

[squidyj]

If there's not a mafia member in the first four, then I'm guessing there's at least one among the 8 or so players that volunteered in the first hour of the game. Seems unlikely that they wouldn't at least try to put one ace in that hole.

there's at least one among 8 people? pick 8 people at random and the expected value of mafia should be about 2.

 

[squidyj]

In fact if you believe that mafia orchestrated putting exactly one person in the mission then you should consider that your best odds for finding a mafia is to lynch outside of that group of 8 because it would have 1 mafia in it, pushing the odds of finding mafia in the other group up.

22 - 8 = 14 and lets say we started with 5 mafia so 4 / 14 as mafia?

almost 30% chance picking at random from the remaining 14 (unless you're one of the volunteers then the odds are slightly worse, 4/15, ~27%)

 

[Ourobolus]

Depending on whether I can get wifi or not, I'll try to get an updated vote count posted in a few hours.

 

[Burbeting]

We didn't, no.
I mean we won regardless so it didn't give the mafia too much of an advantage.

I'm gonna toss out a random VOTE: Burbeting because his experience scares me.

Can't kinda say anything to those accusations, I guess, other than that this is my first gaf-mafia game, so I'd guess that would balance things out (different set of rules etc.).

I think mafia are voting in the 4, I think they either know that there isn't a mafia in that group or are confident that they can get us to lynch the wrong one. I think we need to look outside that group for today's lynch. I was hoping someone would comment on my Razmos vote and argument but it seems like discussion swept away from that. hunh.

Worst case scenario wil be if there is no mafia in the four volunteers, and the mafia manipulates us to spend four days just killing all of them with ideas like "hey if it wasn't that first guy, it must be second one!". On the other-hand if there is mafia in there, it would be foolish not to try to kill them off. Hmmh.

We will use the "moving down the list" method from day 2 onward, until we have a better sense how missions work and of each other, then we switch over to the "top town/ bottom scum" method.

This is the official way to go now huh? The discussion has been going bit back-and-forth with it, but if we start with that, it might be good to spell it out with bold and underlined text or something so that everyone will notice for sure.

----

Out of the four volunteers, I feel like Palmer and GreatLord Tiger are the most suspicious. Palmer was somehow really defensive when people questioned him of volunteering so quick, which is kind of weird. I understand the argument about not wanting to die during the night because of being a well-known player at now, but being so defensive when questioned about it feels kind of... iffy to me. Also I have to disagree with roytheone that you shouldn't stop voting someone just because that person has more experience, since if someone is really suspect to you, you shouldn't hesitate voting him/her for reasons that happened outside the game (reason here being Palmer got more experience from the other games).

At the same time, GreatLord Tiger does give some scum-vibes for the reasons others too have mentioned, like the misunderstanding of rules, and as Palmer mentioned, trying to shift heat to Mazre as soon as few others mentioned him. When Palmer asked about this, Tiger answered pretty quickly with three seperate posts (although there was some time between them).

I'm still pretty torn between these two, but since Palmer said that it would be good for everyone to vote at 48 hour mark, I'll vote

VOTE: GreatLord Tiger

Because I feel that if Palmer is as experienced as others say (I haven't read all earlier GAF games throughly) he wouldn't get aggressive if he was a mafia member, but he would be more careful with his words. With that said, it might be that he simply is mafia member who turned bit over-aggressive, but in day 1 you have to go with what you get.

 

[QuantumBro]

there's at least one among 8 people? pick 8 people at random and the expected value of mafia should be about 2.

In fact if you believe that mafia orchestrated putting exactly one person in the mission then you should consider that your best odds for finding a mafia is to lynch outside of that group of 8 because it would have 1 mafia in it, pushing the odds of finding mafia in the other group up.

22 - 8 = 14 and lets say we started with 5 mafia so 4 / 14 as mafia?

almost 30% chance picking at random from the remaining 14 (unless you're one of the volunteers then the odds are slightly worse, 4/15, ~27%)

Hmm, didn't think of it that way. I was thinking of voting for someone in the mission, but now I might have to reconsider.