No, it is the way I think is the best. However, I think we should table the discussion for now and focus on lynch voting.
Archer [Mafia] |OT| Wait, I Had Something For This
- Thread starter Ourobolus
- Start date
No, it is the way I think is the best. However, I think we should table the discussion for now and focus on lynch voting.
Arkos
Nose how to spell and rede to
Is this post serious? Nobody else mentioned it. Also, he says "you" rather than phrasing it in a way that includes himself in town, which seems kind of shady. This is all shady. I don't trust any of you.
I agree with the bolded.
I actually did a similar calculation a couple of posts back and my result was that both percentages are pretty close, which is why I now think the best course of action is to lynch an relatively inactive person so that if he turns out to be town, we at least don't lose a great player and have some damage control. It is a little unfair against new, inexperienced players though.
Alright, fair enough. We do need to make some real decisions about it soon, or we'll be stuck talking about it back in the beginning of day 2.
QuantumBro
Banned
I wasn't really suspicious of Palmer till this post...
I don't like that he's trying to convince us that he's not KGB by putting himself up as an option for voting.
Now I'm not entirely convinced he's mafia, but his actions make me think he has allegiances beyond ISIS. I was going to vote for him until squidy's points earlier made me reconsider.
To clarify: if palmer_v1 was my primary suspect, I will still have voted for him. However, having a clear prime suspect day one is hard, so I currently have around five main suspects, and Palmer is one of them. When I have to pick which one of the five gets my vote, i take in account the risk of losing a potential great town member and rather vote for one of the other four.
One person saying it doesn't make it official by any means.
I didn't mean to come across aggressively. It was mostly posting in a rush via mobile and my concern early was that people were already making comments about lynching people because they had been dangerous/sneaky/whatever in previous games.
Thanks for voting, though! I really feel like we'll have more to work with if everyone is more active about voting.
Sorry Quantum, it's just how I post. It would be disingenuous(and yes, suspicious) to leave myself out of a discussion when I meet the exact same conditions I'm accusing someone else of. I almost always play a devil's advocate to see if there are any major holes in someone's train of thought.
To really blow your mind and encourage everyone to think critically about the 4 of us, consider that if I was Mafia, I'm probably the most logical person to send on the mission, because I've been investigated multiple times in the previous games and this is an ideal way for me to try and dodge that for a few nights.
The reality is I have no special role this time, and I'm probably doomed anyway, so I'll risk getting lynched early for what I believe is a decent chance at the Mafia.
Current Votes!
squidyj (1)
Mazre
Haly (1)
Seath
EzekelRAGE (0)
cabbeh
roytheone (1)
Haly
El Topo
cabbeh (0)
Squidyj
Mazre (3)
Palmer_v1
YesNOnoNOYes
Enker
The Goddamn (0)
Palmer_v1
Razmos (1)
Squidyj
GreatLord Tiger (4)
Burbeting
Hobohodo
Septimus Prime
Zubz
Burbeting (1)
Razmos
cooljeanius (1)
EzekelRAGE
Mike_Hawk689 (2)
Roytheone
Cabbeh
VOLUNTEERS
Mazre
Palmer_v1
Arkos
GreatLord Tiger
===BACKUP===
Haly
Squidyj
El Topo
YesNOnoNOYes
Night 1 Starts at:
Hopefully that's correct. Doing this on mobile BLOWS. SEE, I LOVE YOU GUYS.
squidyj (1)
Mazre
Haly (1)
Seath
EzekelRAGE (0)
roytheone (1)
El Topo
cabbeh (0)
Mazre (3)
Palmer_v1
YesNOnoNOYes
Enker
The Goddamn (0)
Razmos (1)
Squidyj
GreatLord Tiger (4)
Burbeting
Hobohodo
Septimus Prime
Zubz
Burbeting (1)
Razmos
cooljeanius (1)
EzekelRAGE
Mike_Hawk689 (2)
Roytheone
Cabbeh
VOLUNTEERS
Mazre
Palmer_v1
Arkos
GreatLord Tiger
===BACKUP===
Haly
Squidyj
El Topo
YesNOnoNOYes
Night 1 Starts at:
Hopefully that's correct. Doing this on mobile BLOWS. SEE, I LOVE YOU GUYS.
QuantumBro
Banned
No worries, you're just automatically on my watch list since we've been in the same games. I feel kinda left out amongst all of these villagers from the last game.
Though I must ask, if you have no special power, why are you taking up a spot in the mission when it could potentially protect someone with one? You said earlier that you had a reason for being apart of the mission, but I must have glossed over it; what was it again?
Septimus Prime
Member
This math falls apart if more than one KGB volunteers, though (and if they can collude, why wouldn't they?), and a large percentage of their team would end up being effectively immune from lynching.
Why would the KGB orchestrate to put exactly one member into the mission? Why not load it up and try to keep multiple teammates from being lynched? That's what I would do if I were KGB.
cooljeanius
Member
Not analogous. Posting a lot can actually be part of a mafia member's strategy to avoid detection, whereas our usernames were all chosen before the game even started, and thus have no bearing on our alignment.
I'm still not really sure why that would make me mafia...
Well, to be fair, if someone has a special power they shouldn't reveal it yet, that would just get them night killed.
You think i'm the best lynch because I'm an easy target.
I already defended myself, and none of your accusations hold any ground at all.
Not active enough? I've been really busy and my timezone sucks for this game.
Not enough substance? It's day one and I'm sorry if I'm not coming out with grand theories or attacking random people for no reason.
You even said that i'm not posting that much which is bullshit, I am nowhere near the bottom of the rankings for posts.
Just admit it, you think I'm a bad player and an easy target and you want an easy lynch on the first day. It would make more sense than all the stupid accusations you are throwing my way, and that's probably why nobody is taking your bait.
QuantumBro
Banned
Well yeah, you shouldn't reveal anything about your role today, which has me confused about why Palmer is admitting he's a drone. It's basically allowing the Mafia one less possible target to go after.
I'm not sold on Tiger yet, he seems to come off as a little inexperienced and just wants to ride out the early stages without being killed.
Admittedly, it's not pro-town to only be thinking of saving your own hide, but again I think he just wants to stay in the game, excitement and all that.
Razmos' reaction to squidy voting for him is interesting though. Seems a bit dramatic for a single vote. Nothing else I can see there, so I'll just follow him with interest.
Admittedly, it's not pro-town to only be thinking of saving your own hide, but again I think he just wants to stay in the game, excitement and all that.
Razmos' reaction to squidy voting for him is interesting though. Seems a bit dramatic for a single vote. Nothing else I can see there, so I'll just follow him with interest.
Septimus Prime
Member
Also, if I were Mafia, I'd start the game accusing each other. Sure, one person might end up lynched, but it would really defer suspicion.
Well if you're posting fluff you're deflecting away from the ultimate goal of scumhunting. it's a behaviour of distraction. Use your noggin, man!
It's not just a single vote though when this is the.. 3rd post of him trying to start a bandwagon.
My first post reply was defending myself, my second reply was annoyance that he seemed to ignore my first post.
Seems like a valid response to an aggressive playstyle, as I said I don't see anything else that makes me suspicious of you
He could have reasons for that if he is town, but I really think we should avoid this conversation about roles and powers right now, it will only help the Mafia.
I just noticed Mazre cast a vote a mere minute after the game began. He stated he didn't want a no lynch, but a bloody minute seems odd.
It was also random. Why even do a random vote in the first place? I'd say on day 1 you use your vote as a prod to people you want to interact with. That, the insta-volunteer and endorsing RNG for missions are decisions that don't help our beloved agency.
I'll end my night with switching the vote. I'll read the responses to that in the morning.
VOTE: Mazre
It was also random. Why even do a random vote in the first place? I'd say on day 1 you use your vote as a prod to people you want to interact with. That, the insta-volunteer and endorsing RNG for missions are decisions that don't help our beloved agency.
I'll end my night with switching the vote. I'll read the responses to that in the morning.
VOTE: Mazre
Thank you for agreeing with me, I was beginning to think I was nuts. I think day 1 KGB putting all 4 in the mission gives them the best odds because of the randomness of the day, the littlest thing can get someone lynched.
This is not to say they did that successfully of course, there is no way to know what the odds are, but lynching in the group of 4 is probably better odds then the town proper.
So you think that before the game started a group of at least 4 people made a decision based on a misunderstanding of a game mechanic and not one of them bothered to seek out clarification when they even had a day or two with their own communication platform?
I'm a bit of a wreck right now after finishing A Little Life so I just skimmed the last few pages. I wanted to follow up with the post I made this morning concerning the volunteers.
Here, they're ranked in order of decreasing townness.
Palmer_v1 - Genuine, town-y reason to want to be on the mission even if it's a little self centered.
Squidyj - Pro-town behavior overall and discussion generation.
YesNOnoNOYes - Roleplaying a lot but mixes in real insight
El Topo - While he did take the initiative to vote roy, it seemed kind of haphazard and there was no follow through at all
Mazre - Maintained a measured tone somewhere between neutral and town even if he's not active
GreatLord Tiger - Enthusiastic about the game but did get confused due to inexperience
Arkos - Like Tiger but he's been less active
I'm actually going to give Tiger and Arkos the benefit of the doubt. I don't see either of them as natural manipulators like some people were last game *cough*. That leaves Mazre and El Topo up next. There's enough people voting for Mazre to provoke a response from him whenever he sees he's near the front so I will:
VOTE: El Topo
What up bruh? Are you still intent on roy even as he's picked up his responses?
I can't agree with killing people for not getting in line, figuratively or literally. If I had to leave my morals outside of it, I'd say no Mafia would risk standing as the one against the many.
Here, they're ranked in order of decreasing townness.
Palmer_v1 - Genuine, town-y reason to want to be on the mission even if it's a little self centered.
Squidyj - Pro-town behavior overall and discussion generation.
YesNOnoNOYes - Roleplaying a lot but mixes in real insight
El Topo - While he did take the initiative to vote roy, it seemed kind of haphazard and there was no follow through at all
Mazre - Maintained a measured tone somewhere between neutral and town even if he's not active
GreatLord Tiger - Enthusiastic about the game but did get confused due to inexperience
Arkos - Like Tiger but he's been less active
I'm actually going to give Tiger and Arkos the benefit of the doubt. I don't see either of them as natural manipulators like some people were last game *cough*. That leaves Mazre and El Topo up next. There's enough people voting for Mazre to provoke a response from him whenever he sees he's near the front so I will:
VOTE: El Topo
What up bruh? Are you still intent on roy even as he's picked up his responses?
I can't agree with killing people for not getting in line, figuratively or literally. If I had to leave my morals outside of it, I'd say no Mafia would risk standing as the one against the many.
I don't think mafia would fall in line unless they risked being brutally murdered for stepping out of it. Otherwise they would see an opportunity to gain some sort of advantage by bucking the system and they would take it and we would sit and twiddle our thumbs saying "oh you really shouldn't have done that"
Fluff: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=173875716&highlight=#post173875716
Didn't really get the mission mechanic and started his beef with you: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=173885520&highlight=#post173885520
Correction on that misunderstanding: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=173886054&highlight=#post173886054
More beef with you: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173886807&postcount=350
Thinking too hard about everything: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173971215&postcount=424
He's even seeking confirmation of basic Mafia theory: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=174095175&highlight=#post174095175
Again, here, either he's playing the novice (possible, but unlikely and I'll explain why) or he's just genuinely confused: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=174100026&highlight=#post174100026
Fluff and jokes: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=174114501&highlight=#post174114501
Kind of flailing here: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=174151758&highlight=#post174151758
This doesn't read as "scum" to me. Perhaps it doesn't read as "town", but I don't expect novices to know how to look town. Looking town is a skill that's invaluable for both town AND mafia. Being scummy at Day 1 doesn't mean they're necessarily scum (although the odds are tad higher), it means they're not very good at presenting town. If you've been keeping up with the other games even in passing, you'd see this effect as well.
As for why I don't think he's playing the novice: Ouro said the mafia chat was opened 2 days before this thread was opened. This means they had the chance to sync up and prestragtegize. I don't think he would have to ask so many questions if he had coaches on Quicktopic. Crab once told me, when discussing the HHA players, that the best persona to assume is the one that comes most naturally to you, a.k.a, yourself. I would personally not send in a novice and tell them to play up their virgin game confusion.
Didn't really get the mission mechanic and started his beef with you: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=173885520&highlight=#post173885520
Correction on that misunderstanding: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=173886054&highlight=#post173886054
More beef with you: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173886807&postcount=350
Thinking too hard about everything: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173971215&postcount=424
He's even seeking confirmation of basic Mafia theory: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=174095175&highlight=#post174095175
Again, here, either he's playing the novice (possible, but unlikely and I'll explain why) or he's just genuinely confused: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=174100026&highlight=#post174100026
Fluff and jokes: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=174114501&highlight=#post174114501
Kind of flailing here: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=174151758&highlight=#post174151758
This doesn't read as "scum" to me. Perhaps it doesn't read as "town", but I don't expect novices to know how to look town. Looking town is a skill that's invaluable for both town AND mafia. Being scummy at Day 1 doesn't mean they're necessarily scum (although the odds are tad higher), it means they're not very good at presenting town. If you've been keeping up with the other games even in passing, you'd see this effect as well.
As for why I don't think he's playing the novice: Ouro said the mafia chat was opened 2 days before this thread was opened. This means they had the chance to sync up and prestragtegize. I don't think he would have to ask so many questions if he had coaches on Quicktopic. Crab once told me, when discussing the HHA players, that the best persona to assume is the one that comes most naturally to you, a.k.a, yourself. I would personally not send in a novice and tell them to play up their virgin game confusion.
My conviction that roy is mafia is stronger than ever, although I must admit I haven't read any of his posts since my accusation. Unless he's presented convincing evidence to the contrary they wouldn't change much anyway.
I'll follow my gut feeling this game.
Septimus Prime
Member
What evidence would there even be to show you are Town?
I had a long post typed up but then I reread this and realized what it really meant. Yes, I agree. But I felt like that was a tacit part of any scheme to control volunteering. That if a player steps out of established bounds, they put the spotlight on themselves, and so Mafia would never risk it.
That doesn't matter, however, if we can't establish a system in the first place because we don't have the cooperation of all involved. Unless you really mean to just forget about Palmer and go ahead with your voting scheme, and then browbeat him into getting in line with the threat of lynch.
Exactly. He can't even present evidence that he is innocent. I rest my case.
Joking aside, we will have no evidence whatsoever on the first day that someone is town or mafia, no matter how hard one tries to interpret the behavior or posts of other players. What you can do however is continuously challenge people, so that days later one can go back and analyze the behavior/posts.
There is always the option of revealing your role, but that is a very dangerous thing to do. In addition there is little way to tell (at this point) whether a role is true or not.
Very true, and AC game had 4, and 23 players as well.
Not a bad play, but I don't intend to un-volunteer based on threat of assassination.
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
Morning, gang! 
Looks like there's been more posts and votes during my sleep hours! WOW I LOVE YOU GUYS~ I will read and nom on them promptly~
This is what we need to encourage so we can get better reads at people once they are under pressure! ... Unless they like to be choked.... o___o;;;
Anyway, with Day 1 rolling past its halfway mark, I do think we would benefit from more discussions on everyone's thought processes !
I like this response. Very cool and based on personal experience, easy to relate and quite understandable to why you came up with 4. For now, you are back on the Office Party Invite list.
Unvote: Mazre
Looks like there's been more posts and votes during my sleep hours! WOW I LOVE YOU GUYS~ I will read and nom on them promptly~
This is what we need to encourage so we can get better reads at people once they are under pressure! ... Unless they like to be choked.... o___o;;;
Anyway, with Day 1 rolling past its halfway mark, I do think we would benefit from more discussions on everyone's thought processes !
I like this response. Very cool and based on personal experience, easy to relate and quite understandable to why you came up with 4. For now, you are back on the Office Party Invite list.
Unvote: Mazre
Not a lot for me to argue here. If one is of the opinion that a KGB is in the early volunteers (whether first four or first 10 minutes) this play is perfectly sound. The biggest flaw I can find is questioning whether KGB would risk the exposure that comes with volunteering.
Gotta start somewhere, and it did generate a response from squidyj. Votes are pretty elastic so there's absolutely no harm in doing so early, think of it as a formal declaration of intent to vote anything other than 'No Kill'. I had considered changing it last night but it was late and tired posting is rarely productive. I anticipate casting a new vote this evening as squidyj is always at least useful as a foil for an argument.
I like RNG cause it's fun and unbiased, it's also day 1 so we have even less than usual to go on.
Arkos
Nose how to spell and rede to
See I don't trust this squidyj, not least of all because he suspects me. As unflattering as it is Haly seems to have a pretty good read on me. I would think his read is obvious to a supposedly seasoned player. But squidyj suspects me -- because I suspect him? I want to like you squidyj. But you have a squid face.
cooljeanius
Member
Well, in my defense, day 1 is hard when there's not much info to go on. I do generally agree that increasing the noise portion of the signal-to-noise ratio is mafia-like behavior, but if you look at how much I've been posting overall, the amount of noise I've added to the conversation is really not much. On the other hand, someone like squidyj who's been posting A LOT? Sure, a good portion of it has been signal, but, in purely absolute terms, a large amount of it has also been noise... Hence my suspicions.
Arkos
Nose how to spell and rede to
I thought you thought I was smarter than that
This is not a good look for you.
- You mean you don't suspect me?
- I don't get it why.
Some slightly cooler (less hot) actual reads now that we have some actual words to go on.
Septimus Prime
Burbeting
cabbeh
Zubz
Hobohodo
I kinda wish I had posted this last night, it was certainly a surprise to see so many of that list clustered around voting for GLT, but no, that's not why this group is catching my attention.
With the exception of Septimus, everyone in this group stated an active disinterest in participating in the missions. cabbeh and burbe somewhat less so than Zubz and Hobo but it still stuck out to me.
To be clear, my gut feels strongly that there is a decent possibility of 1 KGB among this group. I very all or even a plurality of them are at this point.
So why did I bring up Septimus? Unfortunately, he reminds me a lot of nin1000. He's most likely agency but my gut makes me suspect that throughout the game he will be difficult to read and generally create more noise than signal. I hope to be proven wrong, as it's still very early in this game.
Still considering my vote.
Septimus Prime
Burbeting
cabbeh
Zubz
Hobohodo
I kinda wish I had posted this last night, it was certainly a surprise to see so many of that list clustered around voting for GLT, but no, that's not why this group is catching my attention.
With the exception of Septimus, everyone in this group stated an active disinterest in participating in the missions. cabbeh and burbe somewhat less so than Zubz and Hobo but it still stuck out to me.
To be clear, my gut feels strongly that there is a decent possibility of 1 KGB among this group. I very all or even a plurality of them are at this point.
So why did I bring up Septimus? Unfortunately, he reminds me a lot of nin1000. He's most likely agency but my gut makes me suspect that throughout the game he will be difficult to read and generally create more noise than signal. I hope to be proven wrong, as it's still very early in this game.
Still considering my vote.
no i mean that you suggest that the reason I'm suspecting you is because you suspected me a little bit? really? that's your argument and all you can think of?
Let me ask you another question, why aren't you soaked right now?
Arkos
Nose how to spell and rede to
Well nobody else has really voiced a suspicion of you, so yeah I guess? That's all I can think of for why you would suspect me, not all I can think of for suspecting you
Now you're just throwing words together I don't understand this. Soaked?
it's raining on the people who made it on the mission, and everyone but you is getting soaked.
have some more mimosa.