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[fennec fox]

Nikkei via Video-fenky

"The size of Japan's video game industry went down 11 percent to 446 billion yen in 2003, according to a report from the Computer Entertainment Software Association (CESA). This is the third year of decline, and is approximately 40 percent off from the industry's peak in 1997.

Shipments of hardware and software, as recorded by the CESA, were both stagnant. Hardware shipments went down 16.7 percent to 137.2 billion yen, largely due to audience saturation of the four-year-old PlayStation 2 from Sony Computer Entertainment. Nintendo's portable game system is among the consoles that fared better, but not well enough to stem the tide. Software shipments dipped 8.2 percent to 309.1 billion yen; audience loss, accompanied by the increasing complexity of games, has become a serious problem.

Total shipments, including imports, added up to 1.13 trillion yen, down 10.1 percent from last year."

For sake of comparison, total game software shipments in America were around $3 billion in 1982, $3.2 billion in 1983, $2 billion in 1984, and $800 million in 1985. In 2003 the figure was $7 billion (according to the ESA's site) and has been rising almost constantly since 1995, with a small dip in 2000.

 

[AniHawk]

Well 1997 had 3 big systems going at the same time too: Saturn, PSX, and N64.

 

[Miburou]

Adding imports more than doubles the market?

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Hmmm...looks like more reason for Japan's publishers and developers to more openly embrace the global market to me. Japan's console video game market looks like it going to be screwed...for now.

I think there should be a more concerted effort to bring Western games to Japan. It might bring some interesting variety to a market oversaturated with just Japanese games. Hmmm...if only the average Japanese gamer gave a shit about non-Japanese games.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

lol
You're serious?

 

[SolidSnakex]

"Hmmm...if only the average Japanese gamer gave a shit about non-Japanese games."

They do as shown by GTA. It just has to be marketed like other games there. As much as some complain about American games not selling there, it's not like we know how much marketing they get there. We all know the chances of a game selling here without marketed are very low.

But GTA's shown that with marketing that even Western games can sell in Japan. Even before that it was shown with Sony's platformers like Crash, Jak, Ratchet ect.

 

[Kobun Heat]

I think there should be a more concerted effort to bring Western games to Japan.

That's not exactly the solution.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Well, they need some Western lovin'. I can see myself getting sick of games too if all I had to play was Japanese games...not to sound strange about it, but really. The rest of the world video game market is pretty healthy as it has far more open variety of game design from all over the world...not just games from their own country.

 

[Kobun Heat]

Well, they need some Western lovin'. I can see myself getting sick of games too if all I had to play was Japanese games...not to sound strange about it, but really. The rest of the world video game market is pretty healthy as it has far more open variety of game design from all over the world...not just games from their own country.

True, but you're ignoring the fact that they don't want them.

If the market was booming and supply of games vastly exceeded demand, you'd be on to something. But right now they can't even sell their own homegrown product, which is their bread and butter. And as bad as Japanese games are selling, Western ones are selling far worse.

The hype over GTA:Vice City, plus the fact that Capcom evidently took a great deal of care in its marketing, equaled okay sales, which is interesting. But they're still low compared to sales of Japanese-designed PS2 games like FFX-2 and such.

Japan needs right now to fall back on what works best, not go wildly experimenting with games that are bound to fail in hopes that one of them will be the magic bullet.

 

[Mashing]

Maybe they should open their eyes and realize there are two other systems out there besides Sony's. THey don't have anything to blame but themselves with their closemindedness.

I guess it doesn't help that they are in a recession either.

 

[SolidSnakex]

I don't think the lack of Western games is the problem. It's just the industry has begun to lean toward story driven gaming only. To alot of people that's a turn off since they just want a game they can pick up and play for maybe 30 or so minutes and then go and do what they might have to do. With some games now by doing that you'll just be getting through the opening scenes. They've got to get more balance into the industry with more pick up and play type games. There's obviously an appeal there as shown by the success of GTA, Wario Ware and the GBA NES classics.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

I'm not suggesting that it would be an instant cure-all...no, no, no. The problem with trying to push non-Japanese games there is that the consumer-base is so wired into the long-standing way of Japan's market and the products they receive...very jingoistic, IMO. I'm not saying that they average consumer conciously thinks about the nation of origin when considering a purchase, but rather that the strength of the Japanese name brand has never been contested there with enough effort, money, and time. I'd think that if it weren't for Capcom's name as publisher for the GTAs there, even given the same exact marketing, they wouldn't have sold even half of what they have so far. That first wall needs to be broken through.

 

[Kobun Heat]

It's just the industry has begun to lean toward story driven gaming only.

Are you sure about that?

Industry // Media Create Software Sales 14 - 20 Jun 18:39
platform title publisher this week total
1 PS2 Silent Hill 4: The Room Konami 41,014
2 PS2 Jissen Pachislot: Fist of the North Star Sammy 39,890 585,620
3 GBA Mario vs Donkey Kong Nintendo 27,584 79,590
4 GBA Famicom Mini 20: Ganbare Goemon Nintendo 19,567 100,070*
5 GC Pikmin 2 Nintendo 18,746 367,430
6 PS2 Gunslinger Girl vol.2 Marvellous 17,265
7 PS2 Slotter Up Core 3 Dorado 12,395
8 PS2 Super Robot Wars MX Banpresto 12,131 482,130
9 PS2 Grand Theft Auto Vice City Capcom 11,410 376,250
10 PS2 Espgaluda Arika 9,785

I agree that pick-up-and-play games are really important and have been neglected... but I'd say Japan has never been the problem where that's concerned.

 

[Jumpman]

Forty percent is just devastating. No wonder Iwata is always ranting. Hopefully with the release of the DS, both developers and consumers will gain a renewed interest in games. I don't personally feel that a handheld will be responsible for a complete turnaround of the Japanese videogame industry, but maybe it will be a start.

 

[pilonv1]

Are you sure about that?

Drag up the yearly sales, I think they'll show a different picture than the weekly ones.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Last years stop 10 was like this:

1.) Final Fantasy X-2
2.) Shin Sangoku Musou 3
3.) Pokemon Sapphire
4.) Pokemon Ruby
5.) Dragon Ball Z Budokai
6.) Dragon Quest Monters: Caravan Heart
7.) Super Robot Taisen Alpha
8.) Star Ocean 3
9.) Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
10.) Devil May Cry 2

Basically dominated by slow paced games.

 

[sonycowboy]

For those of you that want to blame somebody, blame the Japanese economy, Nintendo, Sega, & Microsoft. You cannot blame Sony.

In 1997, there were only 10 million PSOne's in Japan. For the calendar year, they sold 5 million units.

In 2003, there were 16 million PS2's in Japan. For the calendar year, they sold 3.5 million units.

While, it's true that Sony sold less hardware units in year-to-year comparisons, the installed based is 60% higher. However, Nintendo has tanked as the N64 was a relative success in 1997 as was the Saturn which had tremendous support and the relative installed bases of comparable systems other than Sony's is MUCH lower (N64-> GCN, Saturn -> Xbox).

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Maybe they should open their eyes and realize there are two other systems out there besides Sony's. THey don't have anything to blame but themselves with their closemindedness.

I guess it doesn't help that they are in a recession either.

Well, if the problem is, in large part, due to recession, it is a somewhat unique thing to Japan then. The US and many other countries, while still in the middle of recession and generally poor times have shown that the video game market is hardly, if at all, affected by it -- it's seemingly impervious to factors that affect even mainstay entertainment secotrs, such as theatrical releases.

 

[SolidSnakex]

For those of you that want to blame somebody, blame the Japanese economy, Nintendo, Sega, & Microsoft. You cannot blame Sony.

In 1997, there were only 10 million PSOne's in Japan. For the calendar year, they sold 5 million units.

In 2003, there were 16 million PS2's in Japan. For the calendar year, they sold 3.5 million units.

While, it's true that Sony sold less hardware units in year-to-year comparisons, the installed based is 60% higher. However, Nintendo has tanked as the N64 was a relative success in 1997 as was the Saturn which had tremendous support and the relative installed bases of comparable systems other than Sony's is MUCH lower (N64-> GCN, Saturn -> Xbox).

It's like the DC era all over again. Anytime something bad happens it's all Sony's fault. No one ever points the finger at the people who's actually making the bad business decisions (Nintendo, MS) it's always Sony's fault. Sony's been doing what they do best and that's selling products, it's not their fault that the competition can't seem to do that.

 

[Kobun Heat]

Ah, but the yearly top ten shows the individual games that racked up the biggest sales, not the overall diversity of genres on the market.

Simply by their nature, there's going to be a much bigger selection of simple games versus big-budget lengthy adventures, so each individual title is going to sell less.

 

[Mashing]

Well, if the problem is, in large part, due to recession, it is a somewhat unique thing to Japan then. The US and many other countries, while still in the middle of recession and generally poor times have shown that the video game market is hardly, if at all, affected by it -- it's seemingly impervious to factors that affect even mainstay entertainment secotrs, such as theatrical releases.

While this is hardly scrientific fact, just my observation, I think that is due to the behavior of Americans to spend more money on entertainment when times are hard. I think the Japanese probaly have their priorities more in order than Americans do. The American market is based on impulse buys, but that doesn't seem to be the case in Japan, another reason for the decline.

 

[Ozchin]

"Hmmm...if only the average Japanese gamer gave a shit about non-Japanese games."

If only. Unfortunately, they don't, which is why bringing Western games will do nothing.

People here in Japan are spending their money on other things... not games. Game developers and publishers are not tailoring games to entice the average gamer but are continuing to make games that THEY want to play or games that THEY think are cool, which only a shrinking minority of hardcore Japanese gamers will buy.

A good handful of developers/publishers have clued in on the importance of the Western market... most don't know or even care.

 

[JackFrost2012]

People here in Japan are spending their money on other things... not games. Game developers and publishers are not tailoring games to entice the average gamer but are continuing to make games that THEY want to play or games that THEY think are cool, which only a shrinking minority of hardcore Japanese gamers will buy.

I know that my gaming habits have changed significantly over the past few years, and I doubt I'm the only one. Nowadays, I want to play short, immersive games where I am actually constantly doing or playing something, not just watching. I want pick-up-and-play games. It's not necessarily that I'm gaming fewer hours than I used to ... it's just that I want a game which I can play for 30 minutes or 5 hours, not one I HAVE to play for 5 hours. The freedom of being able to start and stop when I want is what's missing from most demanding Japanese titles.

 

[AssMan]

To alot of people that's a turn off since they just want a game they can pick up and play for maybe 30 or so minutes and then go and do what they might have to do.

Action games?

 

[SolidSnakex]

Action games?

Depends on the type of action game. Contra, Gradius, Radiant Silvergun would work. Stuff like DMC really wouldn't. Games you'd normally see in an arcade really. Time limit based games for example.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

So, since '97 was the peak of the Japanese game market, can we agree that cinema-soaked, non-interactive stuff like MGS, FFVII, and others helped to kickstart the age of far-less interactive video-'games' and resulting market decline thanks to games being less about playing and more about watching?

Seriously, though, it's most likely the competiton from cheap and easy cell-phones and the cute little games you can play on them.

 

[SolidSnakex]

"So, since '97 was the peak of the Japanese game market, can we agree that cinema-soaked, non-interactive stuff like MGS, FFVII, and others helped to kickstart the age of far-less interactive video-'games'"

Those games you mentioned are incredibly popular. The problem is that there's no balance. It's heavily leaning toward story oriented games and you don't have enough games that you just pick up and start playing without any real tutorials or story sequences (like Contra for example where you're just dumped right into the action without any real set up). Developers need to form a balance between those 2 types of games. There's a market for games that do want to tell a story, but there's also a market for those that don't have a story to tell. Thats the one thats being ignored right now.

I won't comment on the non interactive issue as that's a highly annoying topic in its own. And not because I don't like them (because they're my favorite type of game), but because alot of people don't seem to understand them.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

I was joking...it's the cell-phones, man.

edit: However, I will say that, personally, I dislike the overuse of cinemas in video games. I prefer interactive storytelling to passive storytelling in games. Your actions should propel the events of the story...and not some random point in the game where a trigger kicks off a 20-minute melodrama/action flick.

 

[JackFrost2012]

I won't comment on the non interactive issue as that's a highly annoying topic in its own. And not because I don't like them (because they're my favorite type of game), but because alot of people don't seem to understand them.

Imagine if Hollywood stopped making 2-hour movies and only made 18-hour TV series. Even if you really, really like extended-form TV drama, a diet of nothing but would be quite demanding of your schedule. Moreover, even most of the people who really LIKE movies would be unable to continue watching and purchasing in this new format.

It's like eating nothing but cherry pie.

 

[ge-man]

It seems like this more of matter of developers and publishers having to find better ways of competing with different media. So the solution is going to have focus on several things such as emphasising things that you can only do in a video game and adjusting software prices to compete with media like DVD, which has really exploded from being at impulse buy levels. There's no magic bullet to the problem, and thinking that thereis one is why the Japanese developers and publishers are struggling.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Imagine if Hollywood stopped making 2-hour movies and only made 18-hour TV series. Even if you really, really like extended-form TV drama, a diet of nothing but would be quite demanding of your schedule. Moreover, even most of the people who really LIKE movies would be unable to continue watching and purchasing in this new format.

It's like eating nothing but cherry pie.

That's true. Which is why there needs to be some kind of balance to this. Where you don't have a focus on just one style of game. But as some pointed out earlier, some Japanese developers seem to be giving more focus toward US audiences. And in the US cinematic styled games are incredibly popular. So it's really them that are going to have to bring more balance.

With the success of the pick up and play type of games i'm surprised that alot of developers haven't noticed how popular they could be. And it'd seem to be a smart financial move to give a bit of focus to them as they can't be more time/money consuming to developer as a story oriented game would be.

 

[ravingloon]

It's like the DC era all over again. Anytime something bad happens it's all Sony's fault. No one ever points the finger at the people who's actually making the bad business decisions (Nintendo, MS) it's always Sony's fault. Sony's been doing what they do best and that's selling products, it's not their fault that the competition can't seem to do that.

Well I personally blame the Japanese for this and their fixation on only owning one console. I've been playing games for a while and I remember after about 1 year of the Genesis being my only console. I literally was on the verge of quiting gaming forever. The games were boring, mechanical, and completely devoid of fun. Thought I'd completely outgrown them. The purchase of the SNES brought two things to light for me: 1.) Maybe Nintendo wasn't as evil as I made them out to be (Owned an NES, but they really sucked with the way they manipulated things) 2.) All games were not created equal. It finially dawned on me that I needed to pay attention to who made the games I really liked... because there was definetly a pattern. Now I'm not saying Nintendo hasn't made some terrible decisions, but if I hadn't been playing their games all these years and was getting my fix soley from the PS (which, I'm sorry, does tend to be pretty generic... occasional gem excluded), I'd probably abandon gaming like many of the Japanese are too. Gaming truly is better than it's ever been, but if you're stuck on one platform (ANY platform), it's not as diverse as it was in the heyday.

 

[CrimsonSkies]

Is Tecmo showing growth or are they in decline too?

 

[AniHawk]

It's like the DC era all over again. Anytime something bad happens it's all Sony's fault. No one ever points the finger at the people who's actually making the bad business decisions (Nintendo, MS) it's always Sony's fault. Sony's been doing what they do best and that's selling products, it's not their fault that the competition can't seem to do that.

Well the blame IS partly Sony's during the DC era. Not that the DC went belly-up and Sega went third-party, but that there was nothing for the system for about 6-12 months, had two controller ports, no online support, and people bought it anyway. Not to mention at the time the DC wasn't actually looking that much worse than the PS2, and that the PS2 was hard to develop for at first. If the GC or Xbox was the leading console (with at least one huge hit game at launch, four controller ports, OL ready [Xbox only of course], easy to develop for, and even better looking than the DC), then you can bet that certain people like myself wouldn't have been as confused as to how the hell the system was taking off like it was.

 

[sonycowboy]

Well the blame IS partly Sony's during the DC era. Not that the DC went belly-up and Sega went third-party, but that there was nothing for the system for about 6-12 months, had two controller ports, no online support, and people bought it anyway. Not to mention at the time the DC wasn't actually looking that much worse than the PS2, and that the PS2 was hard to develop for at first. If the GC or Xbox was the leading console (with at least one huge hit game at launch, four controller ports, OL ready [Xbox only of course], easy to develop for, and even better looking than the DC), then you can bet that certain people like myself wouldn't have been as confused as to how the hell the system was taking off like it was.

??? Can you translate this anti-Sony rant into an actual argument or point?

 

[Mr_Furious]

Don't forget that along with the PS1 hitting the market, a whole crapload of small developers popped up like mushrooms. Since then Japan's market has reverted back to the larger publishers. I know I have a bunch of "1 hit wonders" sitting on my shelf from the PS1 era. Same can't really be said about the PS2. I'm not saying that this is the main factor but I sure believe it's relevant.

 

[Deg]

The Japanese market needs to find new stuff. Experiment around here and there. I think the market is changing and people want different stuff besides other problems.

Hmmm...looks like more reason for Japan's publishers and developers to more openly embrace the global market to me.

For all the comments here about how Japanese developers need to be more international. They already are the most international and put plenty of effort in making sure Western audiences will also play their games unlike Western developers for the Asian market. You just dont see Western games sell a million in Asia. The Japanese are looking out further already and at the same time are also not going to want to let the Japan market shrink. I am sure you all have noticed how many Japanese developers have been talking lately.

 

[AniHawk]

??? Can you translate this anti-Sony rant into an actual argument or point?

Sony shouldn't have had the support it had at the beginning due to its limitations, especially when a superior system in terms of hardware options and library was already available.

I'm sorry if you're one of the people who bought a $299.99 PS2 at launch (I got mine before the $100 price drop). I just don't think the system was worthwhile at that price with the games available until at least Fall 2001. To this day I can't believe people supported it the way they did at launch.

 

[sonycowboy]

Sony shouldn't have had the support it had at the beginning due to its limitations, especially when a superior system in terms of hardware options and library was already available.

OK. First, the PS2 is clearly superior hardware to the DC, much as the Xbox is clearly superior to the PS2. Second, that's the case with any new system launch. Existing platforms have the library advantage. The same was true when the DC was launched. It only launched with like 3 games in Japan.

I'm sorry if you're one of the people who bought a $299.99 PS2 at launch (I got mine before the $100 price drop). I just don't think the system was worthwhile at that price with the games available until at least Fall 2001. To this day I can't believe people supported it the way they did at launch.

I'm not sorry one bit. I enjoyed the system thoroughly with SSX, Madden 2001, Summoner, Midnight Club Racing, NBA Live 2002(or 2001), ATV Offroad Fury, Dark Cloud, Twisted Metal Black, & GT3 before Fall 2001. Clearly you didn't see a need to get it before you did, but that certainly doesn't automatically invalidate the system. Tons of people got it and tons of people enjoyed it. It was slow for the first 9 months, but that has been true of every system ever released.

 

[AniHawk]

OK. First, the PS2 is clearly superior hardware to the DC, much as the Xbox is clearly superior to the PS2. Second, that's the case with any new system launch. Existing platforms have the library advantage. The same was true when the DC was launched. It only launched with like 3 games in Japan.

No, I said hardware options. I meant that the DC was OL out of the box and had four controller ports.

I'm not sorry one bit. I enjoyed the system thoroughly with SSX, Madden 2001, Summoner, Midnight Club Racing, NBA Live 2002(or 2001), ATV Offroad Fury, Dark Cloud, Twisted Metal Black, & GT3 before Fall 2001. Clearly you didn't see a need to get it before you did, but that certainly doesn't automatically invalidate the system. Tons of people got it and tons of people enjoyed it. It was slow for the first 9 months, but that has been true of every system ever released.

Yet still it didn't have that huge, huge hit until TMB or GT3 (forgot which came first). The GC had it with SSBM. The Xbox had it with Halo. The DC had it with Soul Calibur. The only system I'd compare the PS2 to would be the GBA. They were both released with good games, but nothing which really stood heads and shoulders above the competition until later.

I'm not saying that the PS2 shouldn't have sold at all. I'm just saying that if Sega, Microsoft, or Nintendo pulled a similar move with their consoles, people wouldn't have bought 18 million of them in a year.

 

[sonycowboy]

Yet still it didn't have that huge, huge hit until TMB or GT3 (forgot which came first). The GC had it with SSBM. The Xbox had it with Halo. The DC had it with Soul Calibur. The only system I'd compare the PS2 to would be the GBA. They were both released with good games, but nothing which really stood heads and shoulders above the competition until later.

I know this will fall right into your argument, but I do believe it. Sony KNEW that their system would be sold out everywhere it was sold. So, the pressure for them to deliver their own AAA lineup of games right out of the shoot was not there. GT2000 was supposed to be a launch title, but they decided to hold it back until the need was there to launch it. Basically, till sales slowed down and/or until they needed to ramp up the releases leading up to the 2001 holiday season when other systems were launching.

Think about it. GT3 sold a butt load of systems, including when it was a bundle. It's not easy to get a parent (or even an adult on a budget) to green light another hardware purchase 4 months after buying the PS2 @ $299. You might call it a lackluster launch, I'd call it planning. Who knows. Just a conspirital thought.

 

[Mooreberg]

I'm sorry if you're one of the people who bought a $299.99 PS2 at launch

Considering it didn't drop to $199.99 until May of 2002, you didn't really get ripped of it you got it at launch. If I hadn't gotten the system in December 2000, I would have ended up getting in November 2001 for MGS2, GTA3, all the other games from that season, and games like GT3 and TMB that came out months before then.

I think paying $299.99 for an Xbox in Fall 2001 / Winter 2002 only for the price to drop $100 in six months (May 2002) would have had me ripping my hair out.

 

[AniHawk]

Considering it didn't drop to $199.99 until May of 2002, you didn't really get ripped of it you got it at launch. If I hadn't gotten the system in December 2000, I would have ended up getting in November 2001 for MGS2, GTA3, all the other games from that season, and games like GT3 and TMB that came out months before then.

I think paying $299.99 for an Xbox in Fall 2001 / Winter 2002 only for the price to drop $100 in six months (May 2002) would have had me ripping my hair out.

Well I got it in February 2002 for $299.99, but I'd never owned a PSX before, and several of the first games I got for it were not at full price (like Klonoa 2, Virtua Fighter 4, Dark Cloud), so it worked out to somewhat of an advantage.

 

[Mooreberg]

I'd say if it you bought it three months before a $100 price drop, you got ripped off more than the people who bought it 18 months before the $100 price drop and got to play games on it all along.

If PS2 had dropped to $199 at E3 2001 I would have been pissed and regretted getting it in 2000. But since the price didn't drop until 2002 it was worth the extra $100. 300 bucks is 300 bucks unless you're importing and dealing with exchange rates.

 

[AniHawk]

Yeah, I still feel ripped off by getting it at full price, but like I said, I'd never had a PSX before (or played any of the games except the first Crash), so I got to experience all of those as well as all the games which came out 6 months before on the PS2. I played FFX for a month, GTA 3 for three months, and then until Kingdom Hearts and GTAVC, I played FFVIII, FFIX, FFT, Grandia, CC, and bought other RPGs I still haven't finished (which reminds me, I need to go back and start Parasite Eve and/or Vagrant Story someday).

 

[Tabris]

1997 was the year of Final Fantasy VII.

 

[Link316]

I'm just saying that if Sega, Microsoft, or Nintendo pulled a similar move with their consoles, people wouldn't have bought 18 million of them in a year.

that's cause their consoles don't have any guarantee for a strong lineup of software like the PS2 does, people could buy the PS2 at launch and not worry about it because they knew the PS2 had lots of support and that the games were eventually gonna come even if the launch titles weren't that stellar

 

[AniHawk]

that's cause their consoles don't have any guarantee for a strong lineup of software like the PS2 does, people could buy the PS2 at launch and not worry about it because they knew the PS2 had lots of support and that the games were eventually gonna come even if the launch titles weren't that stellar

Are you the same Link316 from GameFAQs?

 

[Link316]

yup

 

[cvxfreak]

1997 was the year of Final Fantasy VII.

And Pokemon in Japan