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August 2008 NPD Results
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
B-Rad Lascelle
Banned
Okay, let's run with this.Private Hoffman said:
First off, here are the software sales numbers from last October's NPD:
1. Halo 3 (Xbox 360) -- 433,800
2. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock w/ guitar (Xbox 360) -- 383,200
3. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock w/ guitar (Wii) -- 286,300
4. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock w/ guitar (PlayStation 2) -- 271,100
5. The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (Nintendo DS) -- 262,800
6. Wii Play w/ remote (Wii) -- 239,700
7. The Orange Box (Xbox 360) -- 238,400
8. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock w/o guitar (PlayStation 2) -- 231,700
9. FIFA Soccer 08 (PlayStation 2) -- 129,700
10. Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day (Nintendo DS) -- 116,900
So yeah, not only do we have the combined Guitar Hero World Tour / Rock Band 2 juggernaut to deal with, we've also got the lovely reality of MULTIPLE SKUs for each of these games to further fragment the Top 10.
For instance, Guitar Hero: World Tour has TWELVE SKUs hitting retails shelves in October. You've got the standalone, the guitar kit and the band kit.
Meanwhile, Rock Band 2 will have special edition bundles with all the gear for both Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3... plus standalone sales for the PS3 and September holdover standalone sales for X360 (no Wii or PS2 until November).
So let's plug in the DEFINITES for October and see what spaces remain for Top 10 consideration:
Fable II (Xbox 360)
Guitar Hero: World Tour w/ guitar (Wii)
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (Wii)
Wii Music (Wii)
Wii Play w/ remote (Wii)
Now this is even going with your assumption that Mario Kart & Wii Fit fall off the 300K+ map during the Christmas rush for some inexplicable reason. You've got 5 slots left to squeeze in all of those extra Rock Band / Guitar Hero SKUs. Then you've gotta factor in all of the other big releases for the month including Dead Space, Saints Row 2, a week's worth of Fallout 3, the LEGO Batman holdover, a potential surprise from Midnight Club Los Angeles, Sonic Chronicles: Dark Brotherhood... it's going to be tough. The fragmentation of the band games might just help some titles break through.
The people who purchase Madden in the first month (2 weeks) are not the casual crowd. Madden IS a very well-known casual game, but it also has a very strong hardcore following. The casual market is what caused the PS2 Madden 08 to outsell the 360 version overall last year, despite being beat in August. The casual market will buy this game in mass, but it will be spread out over several months.KuwabaraTheMan said:
The only people who have to worry about Madden sales are those at EA. Year over year, sales are almost stagnate. Sales hardly changed at all within the hardware families...360's raise was offset by no Xbox version, PS2 and PS3 swapped with the PSP gutting almost all the increase they would have seen, and Wii sales stayed the same but with no GCN to pad it. The Madden franchise has been declining each year for several years, considering the extra push they gave the 20th Anniversary, there is no way they can be happy with a measly 40k gain.
As far was Madden and the Wii is concerned... again its all EA's fault for its sales. They've deliberately segregated the game from the other version. They should be happy it sold this much. The people who buy this game now don't want a toned down game or see Favre laughing at them every time they look at it. If...IF... IF this All-Play scheme eventually works for them, it won't happen until Christmas.
Barbacoatl
Banned
Expected numbers. Unexpected images. GAF as usual.
SIP YEK NOD
Banned
B-Rad Lascelle said:
OR help us see a guitar hero top 10
1. GHIV wii /w guitar
2. GHIV 360 /w guitar
3. GHIV ps3 /w guitar
4. GHIV ps2 /w guitar
4. GHIV wii standalone
5. GHIV 360 standalone
6. GHIV ps3 standalone
7. GHIV ps2 standalone
8. GHIV Wii band kit
9. GHIV 360 band kit
10. GHIV ps3 band kit
Private Hoffman
Banned
B-Rad Lascelle said:
You forget one thing though: I think games like GH/RockBand, etc. are great Christmas gifts, so they don't necessarily set the world on fire in October. They start doing massive numbers in November/December.
Just look at last year's October NPD; the SKU splintering effect provided 200-400k per SKU, and that was at the top of the list.
I'm not expecting WiiFit/Mario Kart to fall off the map at all, but I also don't expect it to start selling ridiculously more than it is now until November/December(ish).
Bottom line: I'm not saying it won't be difficult, but if LBP does 300-400k, it should make the top ten. If not, it'll have a tough time being there.
SIP YEK NOD
Banned
Private Hoffman said:
With hardware/software shortages we have seen, i am sure we will see both the band kit and guitar kit sold out through christmas with parents jumping on it early to ensure their kids get it.
AFreak said:
EDIT: Until I'm warned, more pics will have to be posted.
What an interesting NPD. First few Pics I was meh. But seeing her in the bikini yeah I would totally hit that.
You're a brave one AFreak.:lol
Private Hoffman said:
Wouldn't surprise me to see LBP hit 500k it's first month. Sony just needs to keep advertising the game so the casuals know it's coming out.
mr_bishiuk
Banned
So from now on there is a proper price disparity between the 360 and the PS3, so from what's happened so far this year we can tell that blu ray and MGS 4 were worth approx an additional 280k units for sony over the course of 2008 to date?
Private Hoffman
Banned
mr_bishiuk said:
That's a wrong assumption to make. You're comparing it to what the 360 is selling and not what the PS3 WAS selling in 2007.
The increase is much more substantial.
domokunrox
Banned
Private Hoffman said:
Private Hoffman, you of all people should know that bishiuk and icebreezy are the ultimate 360 biased NPD spin doctors. Its a whole lot easier to just point and laugh at them because they keep posting, people keep correcting them, and they keep doing it. Its like they NEED mob mentality slandering. Logic doesn't compute in their brains.
titiklabingapat
Member
Fit will depend entirely on supply and Kart will depend entirely on Wii supply, and Nintendo starts ramping up the supply in October. I can see Kart and Fit doing 450k and 600k each respectively.Private Hoffman said:
mr_bishiuk
Banned
Private Hoffman said:
Not really the figures have roughly been comparable since christmas after the post christmas rush and all the holiday games twisting the figures in the 360's favour, prior to the holiday period 2007 the PS3 was well above the $399 price point.
From January they have been on a fairly even footing on games, apart from the pS3 that had MGS4 and blu ray winning the HD media war, the 360 didn't have any comparable "wins" for the year so far.
CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
Basically, yes.mr_bishiuk said:
Lips is the sort of game that will sell purely on the back of its marketing. And so far, MS hasn't proved to be good at marketing casual games. Their Scene It advert last year was atrocious. Although given Mattrick's background at EA, and now they've got rid of the Bell, we may see an improvement this year. This year's E3 Scene It Box Office Smash advert was a huge improvement. But given that they haven't be arsed to advertise Viva Pinata: TiP at all, I doubt it.B-Rad Lascelle said:Do you also "somehow" envision the PS3 outselling the Xbox 360 in October and November like your compadre earlier in this thread?
BTW, fellas... I've got more NPD sales data for you.
NCAA Football 09 {X360} - 62,400 (YTD total given = 460,000)
NCAA X360 > PS3+Wii
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 09 {X360} - 56,000 (August 26th-30th)
Tiger X360 > Tiger Anything Else
http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/17557/August-2008-NPD-Microsofts-Take/
The interesting quote to take away is this one...
Beginning last month with Madden NFL 09, Xbox 360 has a string of blockbuster titles, each expected to sell at least a million units, launching in the coming months including Gears of War 2, Fable II, Guitar Hero IV, Rock Band 2, Fallout 3 and Lips.
Lips is predicted to be a million-seller? Really?
Should we kick off a Lips vs. LBP sales challenge?
mr_bishiuk
Banned
domokunrox said:
Jesus wept...What ever helps you sleep at night..
CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
There is definitely a market for a game like Lips, especially as Sony haven't managed to grab the NA market with SingStar thus far.pswii60 said:
They're making a big deal of the fact you can use your own songs, but are forgetting that Apple locks out mass storage capabilities from its newest iPod firmwares.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
domokunrox said:
"The price reduction we announced yesterday is not a system price reduction; I want to be really clear about that because I don't want people to accuse us of doing something that we didn't do." -Shane Kim
Private Hoffman
Banned
mr_bishiuk said:
...
The numbers where nowhere near "comparable" DURING "Christimas" (assuming the November/December months during the Holiday rush). The Blu-Ray victory happened in January.
Please, explain to me how 'comparable' these numbers are:
November 2007:
PS3: 466k
360: 770k
December 2007:
PS3: 797k
360: 1,260k
The PS3 was selling ~40% less than the 360 before January hit.
In order for the PS3 to do what it has done so far for 2008, it had to not only make up that 40% gap, but it also had to do an additional 15% OVER what the 360 has sold (accounting for the PS3 sales % over what the 360 has sold in 2008)....that 15% (300k or so by volume) is what you're accounting for, but you're completely neglecting the much larger gap the 360 had over the PS3 in the previous months prior to the Blu-Ray announcement where the gap was 40%.
domokunrox
Banned
OldJadedGamer said:
This is true, however people still knew about it, anyone who could have been on the fence for buying one could have jumped in this month on this model clearance
Let me take a mr bishiuk spin on this.
If the sales were not good this month, the next month will CERTAINLY be better
...or not...nobody knows. For what game? Nobody knows. People just buy game systems in major spikes just randomly without any major game releases, right?
I don't expect any large significant spike for Sept NPD. The pricecut could be good for for 25-50k sales and nothing more.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
TITTIES?!
IN MY NPD?!
fake edit: on topic: More or less an expected month. 360 barely edges out PS3, and Wii still doubles them.
Not too much to say really.
IN MY NPD?!
fake edit: on topic: More or less an expected month. 360 barely edges out PS3, and Wii still doubles them.
Not too much to say really.
Rocksteady33
Junior Member
Can we seriously fucking stop with the half naked girl pics already? I come to NPD threads for analysis not ass - especially not some hoodtat with a biker tattoo on her back and freckles that resemble a third degree burn.
Wowie at Karts staying power though.
Wowie at Karts staying power though.
Although I suppose you'll be able to use your ripped custom soundtracks from your 360 too in Lips? That way people who don't have MP3 Players can join the party too.cjelly said:
Personally, I'm surprised that Sony hasn't pushed Singstar in Japan. Japan is the capital of karoke, after all.
domokunrox
Banned
pswii60 said:
Really? I would argue Karoke is bigger with the Filipino and Vietnamese crowd.
mr_bishiuk
Banned
Private Hoffman said:
Read my post again, FROM JANUARY ONWARDS, November and December were completely not comparable because of the exclusives that came out in those months particularly on 360.
Its clear to me at least that the PS3's pre holiday 07 price cut to basically the same price as the 360 premium ($50 difference I know) raised its base line sales for normal months to that similar to the 360s,
Basically what your are saying is that MGS4 and the blu ray victory turned the deficit from the holiday into a positive from January onwards and that they should be attributed with that turnaround as well as the 280k lead for the year, while i'm saying it was the pre holiday price cut that bought them as equals and that blu ray and MGS4 the differentiators in 2008 were the factors that gave the pS3 its ~280k lead for the year.
The reason why I disagree with you is that MGS4 would not have had an effect too much nearer to release and the blu ray win did not effect the PS3's NPDs much in the month of the announcement of Warner's decision and not really until HDDVD'd abdication later in the year.
Like I originally said and still believe that MGS4 and blu ray (and a whole lot of $ loss on hardware btw) were worth a grand total of 280k additional unit sales over 360 spread over 8 months, next month will see the 360 catch most of that up imo.
mr_bishiuk
Banned
domokunrox said:
Ban bet?
domokunrox said:
Japan invented it, its a Japanese word! Thats pretty much common knowledge tbh..
Private Hoffman
Banned
mr_bishiuk said:
You made a post that said "so, from January onwards, Blu-Ray and MGS4 has only made a 300k diference?"
Which, somewhat suggests that this difference wasn't significant, and likely you're suggesting that the blu-ray bump/mgs4 bump were minor.
I'm here to tell you that your reasoning is flawed because of what the ps3 was TYPICALLY selling BEORE January 2008, since January 2008 represented a certain change of events given the Blu-Ray victory. The Playstation 3 had an absolutely awful 2007, and January marked the change. That 300k difference, in reality, is much greater if we take into account what the PS3 probably SHOULD have sold without the Blu-Ray or MGS4 bumps...Blu-Ray being the more significant of the two.
Actually, it's quite clear that the price cut DIDN'T do that initially, given that the PS3 was still being outsold significantly. It certainly helped, but it by no means provided for the substantial changing of the tides that we saw in 2008.
Here's what you don't understand: All of those factors contributed to it. The price cut. Blu-Ray's victory, and to a much lesser extent (a bump for only about a month or so) MGS4.
The price cut itself wasn't enough; and likely, Blu-Ray's victory without a price cut from 600 to 400 wouldn't be enough on its own.
It was only when those two factors came together and were resolved that we saw a substantial changing of the tides. The price cut put the PS3 on people's radar; the Blu-Ray victory allowed people to purchase the PS3 without the fear that they were spending 400 dollars on a potentially failed format.
I'm trying to wrap my head around what argument you're trying to make, and for the life of me I still can't understand it completely.
(1) MGS4 was a large bump for the month, but I'm not saying it was the main factor that changed the tides; honestly, it wasn't.
(2) Blu-Ray's victory in January showed immediate results and a spike in sales for the PS3. Warner made the announcement, and while "not official", the media had essentially declared HD-DVD dead. PS3 sold 270k in the month of January, projecting far greater than what it should have based upon December's 797k figures. The suggestion that Warner's decision didn't appear to have immediate effects is false.
And that's not the case at all, as I've explained in thorough detail in this post. Hopefully that settles things.
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
Holy Crap, I went to this thread to check in.
What the hell is this???
What the hell is this???
domokunrox
Banned
mr_bishiuk said:
The introduction of the 40GB model manufactures at the cost of roughly $400 (the retail price of the unit). Being that the 80GB unit was almost non existant in many places up until the MGS4 in June, I wouldn't say that Sony lost much money this year so far. Especially since parts get cheaper all the time.
mr_bishiuk
Banned
Private Hoffman said:
Not really i'm afraid, we'll just have to agree to disagree
mr_bishiuk
Banned
domokunrox said:
Shipping, transport, retail margins, advertising, warrenty returns I could go on...
domokunrox
Banned
mr_bishiuk said:
All 3 console companies deal with Shipping, Transportation, Retail margins on consoles (which don't exist. Obviously you've never worked retail), advertising, and warrenty returns. I can go on with RROD and the oh....1 Billion dollars they sunk in the hole due to their hardware problem.
Who lost more money this year? Sony or MS? Cause I know Nintendo didn't. You're just dull. Not your fault.
CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
The butthurt Sony fans are really coming out of the woodwork, huh? I guess they need to think of a new spin now the 300k lead YTD is going to be demolished over the next 3 months.
SIP YEK NOD
Banned
According to their financial statements during fiscal 07 which ended march 08, the game division was at an operating loss of 124.5 billion yen. The entire division, the ps3 is eating anything they make on the ps2.domokunrox said:
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/ar/2008/qfhh7c00000htnrh-att/SonyAR08-08.pdf
In the first fiscal quarter of 08 which ended june 30th, the entire playstation division recorded a 5.4 billion yen profit
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/08q1_sony.pdf
All the profit made from the ps2/psp + all game licensing barely erased the ps3s losses.