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[soldat7]

Yes, PS3 is much better hardware and value. But no a lot of people in US still understand that.
Mainly people see it as a game machine and it is priced higher. More high profile games --> more sales.
If It takes 3 years for a new format to start gaining traction -- then it's 2009 for PS3, when blu-ray will really matter.

Situation is very much different in Europe though. Everybody you ask at least knows what blu-ray is, HD penetration is high and a lot of people actually USE it -- i.e. HDMI or component cables not composite )


PS3 will lose this holiday, but thanks to 80 Gb and 160 Gb + Little Big Planet + Resistance 2 + Motorstorm 2 by low margin. This will be the last christmas they will ever lose to 360 in the US.

It's not that cut and dry and no one has a crystal ball. It was once said that 2008 was the year of the PS3...

My out-of-my-rear prediction (because that's all any of us can really do) is that both the 360 and PS3 are in it for the long haul and will eventually come to an equilibrium at about a 50/50 split of the HD market.

 

[WrikaWrek]

Well, in 2007 people were saying that 2008 would be better... and it has (shock). What's to say 2009 won't improve on 2008?

I didn't say the Ps3 wouldn't do better (shock).

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I don't understand how the PS3 isn't selling better. There is a lot of value in that box. Even if you add in the fact that it's a great DVD player and one of the best (is it still the best?) BD player I expected it to sell a lot more. Even if we ignore the gaming point of view I don't understand why it's not selling better.
Do people looking for a BD player discount it as a game machine.. and vis versa?

I almost fell for it, almost did.

 

[funkmastergeneral]

It's not that cut and dry and no one has a crystal ball. It was once said that 2008 was the year of the PS3...

My out-of-my-rear prediction (because that's all any of us can really do) is that both the 360 and PS3 are in it for the long haul and will eventually come to an equilibrium at about a 50/50 split of the HD market.

For a 50/50 split the PS3 would have to DESTROY the 360 for the next few years, and considering how close the NPDs have been lately thats a ton of ground to cover.

 

[Zombie James]

Actually, I believe the rhetoric was that 2008 would be "The Year of the PS3"... and it has, so long as we discount the competition, I suppose.

No need to discount anything. IMHO, taking into account third-party, first-party, and online offerings, i'd say the PS3 is right up there with the 360 in terms of quality releases this year, and both platforms are stacked this holiday. The PS3 doesn't have the extra year of quality releases the 360 had so cumulatively the 360 is still ahead, obviously, but I think it's competing well.

 

[Philthy]

Well, in 2007 people were saying that 2008 would be better... and it has (shock). What's to say 2009 won't improve on 2008?

I think the real issue, and I'm sad to see it turned out this way, was that Microsoft got a whole hell of a lot more out of launching a year earlier. It continuously feels like I'm a year behind with my PS3, and not in its prime yet as the game selection is just sparse. On my 360 it feels like it's been in its prime for quite some time now, and my game library proves it so far. I've made the decision to start buying PS3 games over 360, but I've got about 20 to go before I even come close to matching it. I can't imagine what 20 games I would even want right now. I see around half a dozen by the end of the year, after that? I have no idea..

 

[Davidion]

Well, in 2007 people were saying that 2008 would be better... and it has (shock). What's to say 2009 won't improve on 2008?

Always nice to see the claims of complete domination on all fronts and firing on all cylinders get shortened to "better".

 

[Zombie James]

Always nice to see the claims of complete domination on all fronts and firing on all cylinders get shortened to "better".

Who said that? Definitely not me.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

This part is gold:

But the Wii's real problem is that it is much more a Japanese cultural device than a worldwide one. The Japanese tend to like loud gadgets, things like motion controllers and step exercise things sell like hot cakes. Less important are quality graphics and sound. Generally it has to be loud and colourful.

This makes the Wii great for Japan but is less interesting in Europe and the US.

 

[Kagari]

As for LBP being a big system seller - I just don't see it in the North American Market. LBP will sell well to existing PS3 owners but I just can't see it driving hardware sales. GT5 and MGS4 I can see - LBP not so much.

I don't think LBP will be a system seller either. Too many people clinging to that idea. Maybe it will happen in Europe, but not in the US.

 

[Davidion]

Who said that? Definitely not me.

Oh, take a guess. :lol

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

No need to discount anything. IMHO, taking into account third-party, first-party, and online offerings, i'd say the PS3 is right up there with the 360 in terms of quality releases this year, and both platforms are stacked this holiday. The PS3 doesn't have the extra year of quality releases the 360 had so cumulatively the 360 is still ahead, obviously, but I think it's competing well.

Being competitive with the second-place competition is far from what I would consider worthy of the "Year of..." moniker. The PS3 stopped being completely out of the race in 08, but if 2008 is The Year of the PS3, then what was it for the Wii? The DS? The PSP?

 

[gtj1092]

Hyperbole reigns supreme on GAF:lol

 

[Davidion]

I don't think LBP will be a system seller either. Too many people clinging to that idea. Maybe it will happen in Europe, but not in the US.

It'll be done if Sony doesn't step off the marketing.

The game has a better chance of pushing "next-gen" gaming better than anything in recent memory.

 

[pr0cs]

I almost fell for it, almost did.

You don't need to fall for anything. For actual value the PS3 should be selling a lot more than it is. I have a difficult time recommending the 360 to anyone other than core gamers. If the person has even a remote interest in things other than games the PS3 seems like an easy choice, but that isn't reflected in the sales numbers.

Of course you would think there is some agenda though, aren't you the person who is "waiting on revision X before buying?"

 

[Zombie James]

Being competitive with the second-place competition is far from what I would consider worthy of the "Year of..." moniker. The PS3 stopped being completely out of the race in 08, but if 2008 is The Year of the PS3, then what was it for the Wii? The DS? The PSP?

Well, I was talking about game releases and game quality. I don't think anyone who ever said "YEAR OF THE PS3" was seriously thinking it would outsell the Wii.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

You don't need to fall for anything. For actual value the PS3 should be selling a lot more than it is. I have a difficult time recommending the 360 to anyone other than core gamers. If the person has even a remote interest in things other than games the PS3 seems like an easy choice, but that isn't reflected in the sales numbers.

Of course you would think there is some agenda though, aren't you the person who is "waiting on revision X before buying?"

No, I am talking about your sly trolling of the PS3.

I don't understand how the PS3 isn't selling better. There is a lot of value in that box. Even if you add in the fact that it's a great DVD player and one of the best (is it still the best?) BD player I expected it to sell a lot more. Even if we ignore the gaming point of view I don't understand why it's not selling better.
Do people looking for a BD player discount it as a game machine.. and vis versa?

You made your post look like it was pro-PS3, then you add in a blatant troll in the middle of the post.

Good job.

Edit: I am waiting for a certain revision of a console, but it also happens to be a console that needs revisions to take care so some poor design choices.

 

[Opiate]

In fairness, the PS3 is still up nearly 100% YoY, and that really is an impressive feat for a 3rd place console. Historically, third place consoles are on a downward sales trend 2.5-3 years in to a generational lifecycle, but that isn't happening this time.

On the other hand, I suspect that 100% YoY increase will be very to maintain for the remainder of the year, largely because last year they had a price drop. At a time when a 100% increase in sales would be especially and particularly meaningful, I'm not sure Sony could possibly do more than a 40% increase, at best. Still good, but the "year over year improvement" statistic is likely to stop favoring Sony so much in the near future.

I also think people try to insist, in any month the PS3 outsells the 360, that this shows a clear trend and that as time goes on the 360 will falter and the PS3 will rocket forward. Then, these people are confounded when the 360 outsells the PS3 again, or chalk it up to a special one time occurance (price drop, exclusive games or content), or simply don't enter the thread at all. What a large data pool likely suggests is that the 360 and PS3 are at parity in the US now, and that's likely to continue for the forseeable future (please don't talk about years from now).

 

[Digital-Hero]

Hardware LTD:
WII: 11.860.000
360: 10.895.000
PS3: 5.262.000

Hardware YTD:
WII: 4.491.000
PS3: 2.019.000
360: 1.741.000

Interesting. That is about to be shaken as fall and holiday season arrives.

 

[Opiate]

Well, I was talking about game releases and game quality. I don't think anyone who ever said "YEAR OF THE PS3" was seriously thinking it would outsell the Wii.

At the end of 07/beginning of 08 when "the year of the PS3" was just starting, there definitely were people who thought that. I think those hopes died when GTA4 came out in April. While a few people caught on quickly to the Wii's dominance, general acceptance of the Wii as something that isn't a fad and will not fade seems to have occured in the last 4 months.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

At the end of 07/beginning of 08 when "the year of the PS3" was just starting, there definitely were people who thought that. I think those hopes died when GTA4 came out in April. While a few people caught on quickly to the Wii's dominance, general acceptance of the Wii as something that isn't a fad and will not fade seems to have occured in the last 4 months.

Yeah, the general tone of NPD threads changed when Nintendo fans realized that the Wii is the PS2 this generation and that Sony fans realized that the PS3 is not the PS2 of last generation.

 

[Kilrogg]

Precisely . On the other hand, the 360, as everyone knows, sells in every territory, am I right?

In fairness, the PS3 is still up nearly 100% YoY, and that really is an impressive feat for a 3rd place console. Historically, third place consoles are on a downward sales trend 2.5-3 years in to a generational lifecycle, but that isn't happening this time.

Yup. Also, anecdotally, I checked back last year's August data a while ago, and to my surprise, only the PS2 and the 360 sold less this year if I'm not mistaken. Every other piece of hardware (minus the GBA, because we're not given any numbers any more) sold more YoY.

On the other hand, I suspect that 100% YoY increase will be very to maintain for the remainder of the year, largely because last year they had a price drop. At a time when a 100% increase in sales would be especially and particularly meaningful, I'm not sure Sony could possibly do more than a 40% increase, at best. Still good, but the "year over year improvement" statistic is likely to stop favoring Sony so much in the near future.

I also think people try to insist, in any month the PS3 outsells the 360, that this shows a clear trend and that as time goes on the 360 will falter and the PS3 will rocket forward. Then, these people are confounded when the 360 outsells the PS3 again, or chalk it up to a special one time occurance (price drop, exclusive games or content), or simply don't enter the thread at all. What a large data pool likely suggests is that the 360 and PS3 are at parity in the US now, and that's likely to continue for the forseeable future (please don't talk about years from now).

This too. What I believe is that, in the short, maybe mid term, the PS3 and the 360 will sell about as much, giving the 360 an edge only in that it came out a year earlier than the PS3. In 2 or 3 years from now, I don't know.

 

[Opiate]

Yeah, the general tone of NPD threads changed when Nintendo fans realized that the Wii is the PS2 this generation and that Sony fans realized that the PS3 is not the PS2 of last generation.

I mentioned this last month, but it seems very clear to me that GTA4 month was the one that broke the back of the console war beast. That month had 90+ pages of responses, just as most months had for some time running; but by June, we were down to 40 pages, and now this NPD thread will be lucky to push 30.

I suspect these threads will largely remain quiet for the next 2-3 years, until murmurs of the Playstation 4 coronation or Xbox 720 triumph begin to surface.

 

[pr0cs]

You made your post look like it was pro-PS3, then you add in a blatant troll in the middle of the post.

Care to elaborate how it was a troll? Even if you ignore gaming (which you get as a side effect of owning a PS3) the PS3 should be selling a lot more than it is. It's arguably the best BD player, offers a lot of value outside of BD (web browser, great DVD playback, media extension, etc). It should be selling a lot more than it is.

Edit: I am waiting for a certain revision of a console, but it also happens to be a console that needs revisions to take care so some poor design choices.

Yeah right, not like I haven't heard that from other single console owners.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Care to elaborate how it was a troll? Even if you ignore gaming (which you get as a side effect of owning a PS3) the PS3 should be selling a lot more than it is. It's arguably the best BD player, offers a lot of value outside of BD (web browser, great DVD playback, media extension, etc). It should be selling a lot more than it is.

Yeah right, not like I haven't heard that from other single console owners.

Brilliant, you are a trolling machine.

Who said I was a single console owner, I love my PSP and DS as much as my PS3

 

[Kagari]

Care to elaborate how it was a troll? Even if you ignore gaming (which you get as a side effect of owning a PS3) the PS3 should be selling a lot more than it is. It's arguably the best BD player, offers a lot of value outside of BD (web browser, great DVD playback, media extension, etc). It should be selling a lot more than it is.


Yeah right, not like I haven't heard that from other single console owners.

A. There's cheaper BD players on the market so the PS3 is no longer the "best" option especially when people look at price.

B. Hcoregamer00 really is waiting on the new chipset to buy in. He's not trolling.

 

[jax (old)]

No, I am talking about your sly trolling of the PS3.



You made your post look like it was pro-PS3, then you add in a blatant troll in the middle of the post.

Good job.

Edit: I am waiting for a certain revision of a console, but it also happens to be a console that needs revisions to take care so some poor design choices.

why is it a troll? Consumers could have bought it for a cheapish bluray player. That's what he meant. Just because you lack reading comprehension doesn't make him a troll

 

[sphinx]

Hardware LTD:
WII: 11.860.000
360: 10.895.000
PS3: 5.262.000

Hardware YTD:
WII: 4.491.000
PS3: 2.019.000
360: 1.741.000.

is there an estimate about when will the Wii surpass 360&PS3 combined?

I'd say January 2010

 

[AstroLad]

Brilliant, you are a trolling machine.

Who said I was a single console owner, I love my PSP and DS as much as my PS3

portable gaming systems are more "toys" than "consoles" though technically (pejoratively speaking, of course)

 

[pr0cs]

A. There's cheaper BD players on the market so the PS3 is no longer the "best" option especially when people look at price.

There are cheaper but no where near as reliable. Heck some of those models won't even play all of the BD titles and to do you they have to wait for firmware updates (which may never come, certainly not as often as PS3 updates).

B. Hcoregamer00 really is waiting on the new chipset to buy in. He's not trolling.

He's been saying that for the last year, he's full of it.

 

[Opiate]

Speaking of "breaking the back of the console war beast," I'd been meaning to note this for some time, but didn't want to give it it's own thread because it felt like it would do nothing but spark insipid argumentation. That's all an NPD thread is anyways, so here goes.

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/sep2008/tc2008093_970320.htm

This is an interesting article all around, and I've posted it in part before. The part I wanted to highlight is where Billy Pidgeon, IDC analyst, states that he believes the 360 will just edge out the PS3 this generation:

Billy Pidgeon doesn't think it will be enough for Sony to overtake Microsoft: "I expect the 360 to remain in second place this generation. But it's going to be close."

I don't highlight this because of the PS3/360 war, but rather, because this marks a dramatic shift of position for Mr. Pidgeon. This was the analyst who, earlier this year, put together a chart for iSupply which showed the PS3 passing the Wii in some far distant, impossible-to-analyze date like 2012, with 360 sales basically dying within by Christmas of this year.

In other words, the stalwart analysts have changed their tune, and pretty much everyone agrees that the war is over now.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

portable gaming systems are more "toys" than "consoles" though technically (pejoratively speaking, of course)

That's probably why they're more fun, then.

 

[mre]

Who is this and what movie is it from?

 

[Hcoregamer00]

why is it a troll? Consumers could have bought it for a cheapish bluray player. That's what he meant. Just because you lack reading comprehension doesn't make him a troll

His followup post shows his point of view, I pointed out that it was a sly way to take shots at the PS3.

portable gaming systems are more "toys" than "consoles" though technically (pejoratively speaking, of course)

I disagree, especially because they provide more console-like experiences compared to previous generations.

He's been saying that for the last year, he's full of it.

I am flattered that you follow my words, but I assure you that I am going 360 once the new chipset is released.

My special edition of Tales of Vesperia is waiting to be played.

Unlike some people, I play games rather than focus on console loyalty.

 

[jax (old)]

His followup post shows his point of view, I pointed out that it was a sly way to take shots at the PS3.



I disagree, especially because they provide more console like experiences compared to previous generations.



I am flattered that you follow my words, but I assure you that I am going 360 once the new chipset is released.

My special edition of Tales of Vesperia is waiting to be played.

you see what you want to see and you're reading too much into it. I like my PS3 and I don't have issues with his comment.

 

[titiklabingapat]

is there an estimate about when will the Wii surpass 360&PS3 combined?

I'd say January 2010

Earleir than that. I'd say Mid to late 2009.

 

[pr0cs]

you see what you want to see and you're reading too much into it. I like my PS3 and I don't have issues with his comment.

It's a great device, I just think Sony totally dropped the ball in marketing and consumer awareness. They keep trying to compete head to head against Microsoft in gaming when they should be spending more time getting consumers more aware that the machine does a lot more than the 360.
By continuing to equate the PS3 point for point against the 360 they end up losing due to price when they need to educate consumers that it does a lot more than the 360 out of the box.
Maybe it's too late at this point, they've already gone down that path.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

you see what you want to see and you're reading too much into it. I like my PS3 and I don't have issues with his comment.

You can argue that everybody colors their perception with personal bias.

Does it really shock you that a person with a Selvaria avatar is a teeny bit offended when someone points out that being a PS3 owner means you have to have less of a focus on games?

I agree with his viewpoint that Sony did drop the ball on the PS3, and his arguments make sense. My problem is that I don't want someone putting a wayward comment in what is essentially a good point.

It's a great device, I just think Sony totally dropped the ball in marketing and consumer awareness. They keep trying to compete head to head against Microsoft in gaming when they should be spending more time getting consumers more aware that the machine does a lot more than the 360.
By continuing to equate the PS3 point for point against the 360 they end up losing due to price when they need to educate consumers that it does a lot more than the 360 out of the box.
Maybe it's too late at this point, they've already gone down that path.

A poster pointed out interestingly enough that Sony is trying to go after the Microsoft userbase by having more western games in its lineup while Microsoft is going after the Sony userbase by having more Japanese games in its lineup. I agree with this sentiment, and Microsoft is winning the perception battle because they are getting both Japanese and Western games.

On the other hand, Sony is floundering because while they changed focus to more Western games, they forgot about the Playstation fans that prefer Japanese games. The Japanese lineup is weak and it is a front that they continue to lose, especially since they lost Final Fantasy 13 as an exclusive.

 

[jax (old)]

You can argue that everybody colors their perception with personal bias.

Does it really shock you that a person with a Selvaria avatar is a teeny bit offended when someone points out that being a PS3 owner means you have to have less of a focus on games?

I agree with his viewpoint that Sony did drop the ball on the PS3, and his arguments make sense. My problem is that I don't want someone putting a wayward comment in what is essentially a good point.

that's not what he was saying. You're a bit dense. whatever.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

that's not what he was saying. You're a bit dense. whatever.

Whatever indeed, I can't understand how you can like the PS3 console and read this statement.

"Even if you ignore gaming (which you get as a side effect of owning a PS3)"

Without being somewhat offended. My PS3 is a game machine and blu rays are a bonus, not the other way around.

 

[jax (old)]

Whatever indeed, I can't understand how you can like the PS3 console and read this statement.

"Even if you ignore gaming (which you get as a side effect of owning a PS3)"

Without being somewhat offended. My PS3 is a game machine and blu rays are a bonus, not the other way around.

because I have a life.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

PS3's path is determined already. I've always said that a system's future is determined in its first 18 months. Even with price drops, being the choice HD media, PS3 sales are still slow overall. Any chance of it exploding or exceeding the 360 base is pretty much nil. Its still 5 million behind and sales of the PS3 are not high enough to overtake the 360 anytime soon. Maybe in 3-4 years but anytime soon? Hardly. If the 360 gets a huge sales boost from the price drop, change that 3-4 years to never.

Saying "Wait for LBP" is a joke. Sounds like the Game Cube defense force.

"Wait for Mario Sunshine!" "Wait for Wind Waker!" You get the point.

This isn't some PS3 troll and it is hilarious how Sony fans treat anything less than worship of the PS3 to be trolling and to have some ulterior motive. Not everyone is so radically anti Sony that they have this agenda to topple a pile of plastic and silicon. It is just that not everyone is wowed by its software selection or its performance. Not every "jab at PS3" is from a 360 or a Wii owner either.

 

[sykoex]

The worst part about these threads is the damage control. At the end of the day any one can make the numbers say anything they want.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Oh shit, Jax just laid down the Royal Flush of internet argument tools.

 

[WrikaWrek]

because I have a life.

 

[Phife Dawg]

...
Situation is very much different in Europe though. Everybody you ask at least knows what blu-ray is, HD penetration is high and a lot of people actually USE it -- i.e. HDMI or component cables not composite )
...

HD penetration is actually the lowest in all three major markets by far. And unless Europe gets HD feeds on a broad level that isn't about to change any time soon.

Sure you can pretty much only get HD capable Tv sets nowadays but unless your old set breaks down or you're a high fidelity type of person there's no need to upgrade. I would've gotten a good SDTV or a CRT HDTV if there would be any decent ones available after my set broke down. Watching SD DVBT on an LCD, even if your scaler is of good quality is not really the most pleasant thing to do.

 

[charlequin]

In fairness, the PS3 is still up nearly 100% YoY, and that really is an impressive feat for a 3rd place console. Historically, third place consoles are on a downward sales trend 2.5-3 years in to a generational lifecycle, but that isn't happening this time.

The high launch prices of the PS3 and 360, in combination with the disruptive strategy of the Wii, has put this generation on a much longer cycle than previous generations. There's no reason for either Sony or MS to rush into a new cycle when their current systems are moving further into profitability and there's no reason for Nintendo to do so because they're winning. I would expect the earliest one of the current systems would be replaced to be 2012, which would mean 6-7 year "primary" lifespans, and I think there's a possibility they'll slip back a year from there even.

What a large data pool likely suggests is that the 360 and PS3 are at parity in the US now, and that's likely to continue for the forseeable future (please don't talk about years from now).

Pretty much. (Even if this pricedrop results in an overall boost for 360, which I kind of think it will, the PS3 will see a comparable boost sometime in 2009 when they perform a similar pricedrop.)

 

[Walshicus]

Who is this and what movie is it from?

Seriously, who is she?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Seriously, who is she?

You don't know Scarlett when you see her?

 

[Hcoregamer00]

because I have a life.

I don't believe your lies.