Rezbit said:
Economics is scary. Especially for an ignoramus such as myself. How shit in the US affects our business over here and makes our dollar lose 10c to the US dollar is crazy. No doubt Choc can shed some light on the issue.
Not sure if serious but its globalization.
US is seen as the number 1 economy in the world and so investment in US Treasury Bonds is seen as a secure investment. As Bernake said the other day, the US will never default. We will just print more money to pay the bills.
So by investing in US Treasury Bonds which have a yield rate of 2.5% despite being low, it still remains a very secure investment.
The Australian dollar is a very volatile currency. When the going gets good, AU Dollar does well and we have been helped by the fact our interest rates have been sky high compared to the rest of the developed world.
Also we are a very resource driven economy. If people aren't building things, then resources are not needed and thus the price on the market of resources drops and our economy becomes less attractive.
The big problem about this new GFC if it happens is that its Governments. 2008 was business that the Governments bailed out however the Governments are now in trouble BECAUSE they bailed out the businesses and went into massive debt to do so. So who saves the Governments? No one can and that is the issue.
If we let the 'too big to fail' companies fail we would have had huge pain for a period of time, but the Governments of the world including the Eurozone wouldn't be as fucked as they are now. But we didn't let them fail and now the EU and US are paying the price.
The big problem with Europe is the Euro. The Eurozone has allowed nations with high debt and weak economies join the currency and now the strong economies including Germany are paying the price.
The reason the Swiss and UK are not fucked is because they didn't take the Euro. They are screwed just not as much, and will be ok through this. Germany on the other hand is screwed, and from what I hear want to bring the Deutsche mark back asap. The Euro as a currency is a failure, because the EU let nations they probably shouldn't have in to the currency when their economies were on unstable ground.
Thats how i read it, but i am no economist, just read the fin review and read a bit of market analysis.