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[bobnowhere]

Do we need to mention how the Terminator seems to have developed a serious bug?

Bill Shorten is very caring and very much in touch and Bill Shorten every single day is promoting our national economic plan for jobs and growth, which of course is exactly what Australia needs given the continued global economic headwinds

I hear the classic T-800 is more reliable in the field of politics.

No real movement in the polls for a while though Newspoll had something interesting, while it was still 51/49 to the ALP there had been a massive jump in the expectation of who would win the election:

Which party will win the election: L/NP 44 (-11) ALP 33 (+8)

Now this might just be a measure of how long ago they last asked this question but this along with the tanking of Turnbull's popularity and the slightly odd climb in Shorten's must be worrying the high-ups in the Coalition. This is going to be close.

 

[Arksy]

Nothing wrong with giving people their money back.

 

[Yagharek]

It was $900 ruddbucks wasn't it?

 

[Aarglefarg]

Anyone else watching the regional debate on ABC News 24, with Richard Di Natale, Barnaby Joyce and Joel Fitzgibbon?

 

[bobnowhere]

Anyone else watching the regional debate on ABC News 24, with Richard Di Natale, Barnaby Joyce and Joel Fitzgibbon?

Forgot it was on!

Ah... the National/Country Party, 96 years of poorer education outcomes, poorer healthcare, poorer employment opportunities, poorer infrastructure, poorer outcomes in almost any measure in their seats yet they're still around. Must be nice to still have your job after a 96 year legacy of absolute failure. The Liberal Party should have put them out of their misery in the 50/60s.

 

[bobnowhere]

Oh sheet!

Closing down the Live Animal Trade caused the boat invasion! Deep end, off you go Barnaby!

 

[Yagharek]

Stop the tomatoes

Spoiler

from inbreeding

 

[Elaugaufein]

Forgot it was on!

Ah... the National/Country Party, 96 years of poorer education outcomes, poorer healthcare, poorer employment opportunities, poorer infrastructure, poorer outcomes in almost any measure in their seats yet they're still around. Must be nice to still have your job after a 96 year legacy of absolute failure. The Liberal Party should have put them out of their misery in the 50/60s.

The Liberals couldn't have put them out of their misery , the Nationals owned Queensland from 1925 until at least Joh Bjelke-Petersen's departure (they still had the upperhand in Coalition seat terms until the LNP formed in 2008). So the Nationals are one more terrible thing Queensland is responsible for.

 

[elfinke]

Anyone else watching the regional debate on ABC News 24, with Richard Di Natale, Barnaby Joyce and Joel Fitzgibbon?

I'm at a community function with Tony Windsor (and others). BJ was supposed to attend but obviously was double booked, so we've been enjoying cheap shots at him all night.

Hopefully his debate is youtubable later on.

 

[Aarglefarg]

I'm at a community function with Tony Windsor (and others). BJ was supposed to attend but obviously was double booked, so we've been enjoying cheap shots at him all night.

Hopefully his debate is youtubable later on.

Tony Windsor's job probably got easier tonight, with Barnaby linking the live export ban with more asylum seeker boats coming to Australia.

I would expect it to come to YouTube but it would definitely be on iView.

 

[elfinke]

Tony Windsor's job probably got easier tonight, with Barnaby linking the live export ban with more asylum seeker boats coming to Australia.

I would expect it to come to YouTube but it would definitely be on iView.

Excellent at the second part. Wtf at the first.

Oh and yes, it's been soft balls all evening for the political attendees.

 

[Shaneus]

Tony Windsor's job probably got easier tonight, with Barnaby linking the live export ban with more asylum seeker boats coming to Australia.

I would expect it to come to YouTube but it would definitely be on iView.

I watched it live (missed the first 10 minutes) and sweet jesus Barnaby is just a car crash. Horrible at speaking off the cuff, and as soon as he tied in The Boats with live animal exports, I was almost literally floored. It had already made news in Jakarta by the time the debate even finished.

Windsor will cakewalk it in.

Interesting insight into RDN and his debating, too. Seemed to struggle a little more against illiterate, uneducated tomatoes like Bananaby. Did like him calling out the Labor guy's insult about public/private school education, though.

The audience member telling Barnaby to shut up so he could speak was fantastic, too.

 

[Yagharek]

So. Nova Peris is on TV this morning in tears as discussing her retirement from the senate, family reasons and serious indigenous struggles.

She's talking about people criticising her in public. Has there been a nasty campaign against her? I'm going to assume she's referring to News Ltd?

 

[Arksy]

So. Nova Peris is on TV this morning in tears as discussing her retirement from the senate, family reasons and serious indigenous struggles.

She's talking about people criticising her in public. Has there been a nasty campaign against her? I'm going to assume she's referring to News Ltd?

Not really, there hasn't been any real criticisms of her directly from anyone, they criticised Gillard for make her a captain's pick, replacing another Senator, which was also widely criticised by her own party...but that's nothing to do with her in general...Unless I'm missing something.

I'm going to assume she's talking about the absolutely disgusting torrent of violent, pornographic and threatening attacks she has received on social media. This might be because she's a woman in politics, but I'm willing to bet it's more because she's a successful indigenous woman in politics.

 

[Shaneus]

Not really, there hasn't been any real criticisms of her directly from anyone, they criticised Gillard for make her a captain's pick, replacing another Senator, which was also widely criticised by her own party...but that's nothing to do with her in general...Unless I'm missing something.

I'm going to assume she's talking about the absolutely disgusting torrent of violent, pornographic and threatening attacks she has received on social media. This might be because she's a woman in politics, but I'm willing to bet it's more because she's a successful indigenous woman in politics.

Bolt also criticised her, being at risk of going "walkabout". Those words.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Bolt also criticised her, being at risk of going "walkabout". Those words.

Are we sure Bolt isn't satire ?

 

[bobnowhere]

Are we sure Bolt isn't satire ?

Bolt's new late-night show averages just over 23k viewers, behind the likes of Dora the Explorer and the help channel.

 

[Arksy]

For some reason, I don't think she was referring to Bolt.

 

[Dryk]

Bolt also criticised her, being at risk of going "walkabout". Those words.

I need to make Firefox extension that substitutes his name with "convicted racist Andrew Bolt"

 

[Arksy]

I just saw her speech. Moving.

I'm willing to put money that if we had made a treaty like New Zealand and included exclusive members in the legislature for indigenous peoples, we wouldn't have nearly the same issues we have now with respect to the destitution of the indigenous people of this country.

This needs to bloody happen already.

 

[i_am_ben]

Didn't she have an affair and try to get her BF some plush job so he could come out here to visit?

 

[D.Lo]

She was still parachuted in to a guaranteed $200k job with no experience as a cynical ploy by Gillard.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

Good riddance to her.
Labor should have done some better investigation on her before giving her a job.
This and the Feeney example shows that due diligence is not something political parties like to worry about.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Good riddance to her.
Labor should have done some better investigation on her before giving her a job.
This and the Feeney example shows that due diligence is not something political parties like to worry about.

Honestly the quality of the candidates for the two major parties is almost totally irrelevant in Australian Politics. You vote the party line or else. It's only remotely relevant on issues where there's significant internal debate such that they could theoretically tilt the party room one way or another (and in cases where things are that close the parties will generally play it safe and favor the status quo anyway) or in cases where the balance of power is so close that party members going rogue can sink you.

Even conscience votes are largely for show. You can bet your bottom dollar that the whips know who's going to vote which way and the outcome before the vote happens, so if a party allows a conscience vote it's purely to provide cover with an interest group while getting an outcome they don't object to anyway.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

Honestly the quality of the candidates for the two major parties is almost totally irrelevant in Australian Politics.

Yet we spend years vetting asylum seekers to make sure they come from a the right parts of Iraq and Afghanistan because we don't think some parts are as dangerous as other parts.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Yet we spend years vetting asylum seekers to make sure they come from a the right parts of Iraq and Afghanistan because we don't think some parts are as dangerous as other parts.

I don't mean to say its a good thing. It's just the way party politics work here. For whatever reason we've historically had muuuch tighter party disciple than you get in say the US or the UK (party members in the Senate are less likely to go rogue than House of Lords members).

I'm not even sure *why* that's happened. There's not actually much historical need for it given that the Coalition strongly dominated federally from the early 1900s until the 1980s and Hawke and Keating then dominated from 1983 until 1996.

 

[r1chard]

Lambie talking about Bernardi is fun to watch (short clip).

 

[bobnowhere]

Lambie talking about Bernardi is fun to watch (short clip).

It does show how thoroughly unlikable Bernardi really is. They really should get along both being rampant islamaphobes and all.

 

[D.Lo]

Honestly the quality of the candidates for the two major parties is almost totally irrelevant in Australian Politics. You vote the party line or else. It's only remotely relevant on issues where there's significant internal debate such that they could theoretically tilt the party room one way or another (and in cases where things are that close the parties will generally play it safe and favor the status quo anyway) or in cases where the balance of power is so close that party members going rogue can sink you.

Good candidates are potential leaders and ministers though. Especially in safe seats and top Senate places.

Every parachuted-in hack is a spot wasted that could be used for a talented youngster who can gain the experience to be the next generation of leader.

Members are also in the party room to argue for positions, especially on local or state issues. It doesn't happen in parliament, but does happen in the party room. Eg Labor's position on gay marriage.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Good candidates are potential leaders and ministers though. Especially in safe seats and top Senate places.

Every parachuted-in hack is a spot wasted that could be used for a talented youngster who can gain the experience to be the next generation of leader.

Members are also in the party room to argue for positions, especially on local or state issues. It doesn't happen in parliament, but does happen in the party room. Eg Labor's position on gay marriage.

I'll pay the first two and I definitely acknowledge the third (may not have come across that way though).

But I don't think the first two apply to a huge number of candidates, a lot of them are just there to fill seats and be factional support and probably get tossed at the next election if they turn out better than that so much the better but I doubt the parties care.

I'd love it if they felt compelled to do more due diligence though, Feeney for example is just embarrassing considering he's clearly in a seat they feel is contested so their lack of it in such a case is baffling and disappointing.

 

[bobnowhere]

I'll pay the first two and I definitely acknowledge the third (may not have come across that way though).

But I don't think the first two apply to a huge number of candidates, a lot of them are just there to fill seats and be factional support and probably get tossed at the next election if they turn out better than that so much the better but I doubt the parties care.

I'd love it if they felt compelled to do more due diligence though, Feeney for example is just embarrassing considering he's clearly in a seat they feel is contested so their lack of it in such a case is baffling and disappointing.

Feeney is in a long term very safe Labor seat, the sort of seat someone in the know gets, someone who shook all the right palms gets and a seat where no campaigning or effort is needed. A reward for the apparatchik. Except all of a sudden he is facing an attack from the left and we see how ill-prepared he really is.

How do you fix it? Open up nominations to all members, 1 membership 1 vote and over time maybe better candidates will prevail though I'm sure people will find a way around it. No more captains calls or calls from head office. The Labor party is probably further down this process than the other 2 but there is still work to go.

 

[Arksy]

I don't mean to say its a good thing. It's just the way party politics work here. For whatever reason we've historically had muuuch tighter party disciple than you get in say the US or the UK (party members in the Senate are less likely to go rogue than House of Lords members).

I'm not even sure *why* that's happened. There's not actually much historical need for it given that the Coalition strongly dominated federally from the early 1900s until the 1980s and Hawke and Keating then dominated from 1983 until 1996.

Actually the reason is really fucking simple. There are salary implications. The UK House of Representatives has 650 members and therefore has a huge contingent of backbenchers who don't have to court favour for a ministerial or secretarial role. In Australia there are like 80 members of the executive (cabinet + greater ministry), in a parliament that has 150 members and 80 Senators. The chances of getting one of those parlsec jobs with a huge salary increase is a lot greater so you see a large number of backbenchers toe the line.

Also the ALP just blatantly kicks anyone out who disagrees.

 

[D.Lo]

I'll pay the first two and I definitely acknowledge the third (may not have come across that way though).

But I don't think the first two apply to a huge number of candidates, a lot of them are just there to fill seats and be factional support and probably get tossed at the next election if they turn out better than that so much the better but I doubt the parties care.

For sure, it doesn't get used that way very well.

Peris also gave me the shits because every time she was on TV she would force in a way to say "as the first Aboriginal woman elected to Australian parliament" as if it was a personal achievement and as if those votes were directly for her. Despite being parachuted into #1 Labor position the NT senate which is a guaranteed win (NT only has two senate spots, so they go one each to the major parties).

She actually received the lowest number of below the line votes of any #1 Senate position candidate in the 2013 election (semi meaningless since NT is so small in population, but still she personally received only a tiny number of votes)

Labor needs to nurture some actual members who are indigenous, not fly in some sports person 'star'.

Feeney is in a long term very safe Labor seat, the sort of seat someone in the know gets, someone who shook all the right palms gets and a seat where no campaigning or effort is needed. A reward for the apparatchik. Except all of a sudden he is facing an attack from the left and we see how ill-prepared he really is.

Lol yep.

 

[bobnowhere]

Reachtel gone 52/48 Labor while Turnbull and Shorten's sat/dissat are almost identical, Turnbull's on the way down, Shorten on the way up. Though in Corangamite, the LNP are well ahead even up on the last election by 0.1!

I don't know enough about that area but the Coalition must be carpet bombing the place for this to be even remotely accurate.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Reachtel gone 52/48 Labor while Turnbull and Shorten's sat/dissat are almost identical, Turnbull's on the way down, Shorten on the way up. Though in Corangamite, the LNP are well ahead even up on the last election by 0.1!

I don't know enough about that area but the Coalition must be carpet bombing the place for this to be even remotely accurate.

That's not impossible naturally. All sorts of confounding variables come into play once you drill down from general population to specific electorates, like did the state Labor party do something negative to that electorate ? Is some issue one of the parties are campaigning on particularly important to that electorate ? etc .

Especially since polls have a natural error margine of >1% so a single poll being 1% more up for Labor doesn't mean much. .

 

[Candescence]

We'll see if Reachtel's poll is part of a trend, but slipping another point below previous polls must be causing Coalition MPs and strategists to panic.

 

[bomma_man]

Iirc it has extra significance because it's the first time that the coalition has been behind since Turnbull took over.

 

[PhantomZone]

We'll see if Reachtel's poll is part of a trend, but slipping another point below previous polls must be causing Coalition MPs and strategists to panic.

Bring back Tony!

 

[bobnowhere]

Yeah every poll measure is moving away from The Coalition atm. They might be successfully carpet bombing some marginals but they must be losing big in seats we don't even know about. Obviously polls have margins and sampling has it's limits but when every polling organisation is reporting almost the same thing and polls are only going one way it must be getting close to [boat/union] panic stations at Coalition headquarters!

Bring back Tony!

The problem is that they did, they just slapped a top-hat on him and hoped no one would notice and no one is buying it.

 

[CrazedProfessional]

I would need to see another QLD poll to make up my mind but I still maintain that the ALP swings appear to be in all the wrong places.

LNP is still ahead in QLD from the last Galaxy poll.

 

[CrazedProfessional]

Any holds in QLD the ALP would have to find elsewhere and I don't see it coming from WA or NSW.

 

[D.Lo]

Turnbull has been atrocious. Keating was right 'a bit of fizz but then nothing'.

I can't blame just him, Morrison and Corman and Joyce and Cash have been beyond terrible.

Who knows if they can win yet, but it really feels like this entire election turned at the point Labor introduced the negative gearing and CGT changes policy, and Turnbull went full Abbott at them.

 

[Shaneus]

Reachtel gone 52/48 Labor while Turnbull and Shorten's sat/dissat are almost identical, Turnbull's on the way down, Shorten on the way up. Though in Corangamite, the LNP are well ahead even up on the last election by 0.1!

I don't know enough about that area but the Coalition must be carpet bombing the place for this to be even remotely accurate.

It's not my electorate specifically, but being it's neighbour, I apologise

 

[bobnowhere]

Amazing car crash interview from the Coalition Candidate in McEwan today, a marginal Labor seat though it should be pretty safe this time around.

Turned up at a Shorten event with signs and the like and couldn't answer policy questions posed by the media, promptly declared he hated journos then took his toys and went home. Shorten even nailed him with a zinger on the way in!

Mr Shorten shook his hand on his way in, joking that at least he was getting to see one leader this election.

 

[darkace]

I like Shortens zingers and anyone who has an opinion otherwise is factually incorrect.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

Amazing car crash interview from the Coalition Candidate in McEwan today, a marginal Labor seat though it should be pretty safe this time around.

Turned up at a Shorten event with signs and the like and couldn't answer policy questions posed by the media, promptly declared he hated journos then took his toys and went home. Shorten even nailed him with a zinger on the way in!

As I said before due diligence is not something political parties are keen on.
This guy shouldn't be allowed to drive a car let alone run for office.

 

[Dastardly Jerks]

Lambie talking about Bernardi is fun to watch (short clip).

 

[bobnowhere]

As I said before due diligence is not something political parties are keen on.
This guy shouldn't be allowed to drive a car let alone run for office.

It's hard finding good candidates to run in seats they have no real hope of winning. A decent candidate will wait for a safe or marginal at an expected win, running a certain loser is harder. It's mostly good honest members who work hard but no one really thinks that much of them so they give them a story to tell their grandkids.

Though sometimes this strategy backfires and you win so well, like in Newman's Queensland, that all these poor candidates get in they they cause havoc. Dentists that are frightened of fluoride, people who think leaving the LNP and joining Palmer is a good idea etc... Part of the problem Newman had and he had many was he had to placate these idiots even with his huge margin.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

There's 80,000 members of the liberal party. 50,000 in the alp. They couldn't get a minimal amount of competency out of 0.2% of their membership? It's ridiculous that we allow organisations such as this to run our government.

 

[bobnowhere]

Alrighty debate drinking game. Drink when you hear Jobs and Growth, Innovation, It's an exciting time to be..., budget black hole, boats, boats, boats, Health + Education, House prices, cost of living, I'm very concerned about... and finally UNIONS!

If your still standing by the halfway point you have the constitution of a horse.