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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened

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as an Australian who only intermittently gets to visit Australia, Sydney is the best city. Obviously I don't have to actually live there, but I'd far rather spend a week in Sydney than Melbourne.
When was the last time you visited.
Most Sydney friends now prefer Melbourne. Not for climate or beaches, but for food music transport and arts as well as a local government that appears to actually be somewhat interested in what the existing citizens want, not a state government intent on building new transport links to new casinos for rich Chinese and rezoning everything for mirvac to flip then blaming new freeway construction on the resulting extra congestion. It really is starting to suck, hard. I know Sydney sat on its arse after the olympics watching reruns, but now it's spending billions on the wrong stuff and privatizing everything. No more public good public infrastructure, it's all about user pays through the nose.
 

danm999

Member
Sydney is a NIMBY paradise. Not really built for anyone under 40.

The few areas that held much interest for the young the State government is working hard to take a sledgehammer to.
 
as an Australian who only intermittently gets to visit Australia, Sydney is the best city. Obviously I don't have to actually live there, but I'd far rather spend a week in Sydney than Melbourne.

Sydney is a broken piece of shit. Melbourne is a much better place to visit or live. And I'm a league supporter too.
 

r1chard

Member
LU0FJUy.jpg

What the hell is he thinking? The papers are running hot with this story and it does not look good at all...


Maybe his account was hacked?!
 

Arksy

Member
As if you wouldn't get Shorten to help with renovations, he'd mobilise the entire union!

So it'll be done unsafely, over budget, slow..oh wait. :p
 

Arksy

Member
As an aside watching the leadership debate was really god damn painful, we saw glimpses of the leaders these two could be but in the end they seemed to resort to American style talking points and redirection.
 

Yagharek

Member
Prime Minister debates should all be held only after they both reach a blood alcohol level of at least 0.10 so we can hear what they really think.
 

Maximo

Member
as an Australian who only intermittently gets to visit Australia, Sydney is the best city. Obviously I don't have to actually live there, but I'd far rather spend a week in Sydney than Melbourne.

Ehhh as someone who lives in Sydney I would give it to Melbourne.
 
Yeah much prefer Melbourne. Even as a league fan I support the storm anyway and it's awful attending games in Sydney. Not that it's really relevant to the topic of this thread but it is more interesting.
 

bomma_man

Member
Finally got round to starting the killing season: man the competence of Rudd's first year feels so distant and foreign.

Can you fucking imagine if these clowns were in charge during the GFC? The coalition's economic cache is so unearned.

Edit: as an Australian Melbourne shits on sydney, but I can see why people from overseas would prefer sydney, it's far more unique.
 

darkace

Banned
Can you fucking imagine if these clowns were in charge during the GFC? The coalition's economic cache is so unearned.

Rudd's first stimulus was bi-partisan. There's no chance it wouldn't have been implemented by a prospective Howard government.

Rudd was acting on advice from Treasury, which would have been the same given to Howard. And it's not as if Howard was a stranger to spending.
 

darkace

Banned
In Australia we gave money to the people, in the rest of the world they gave money to the big banks. GG.

We did both. The banks would absolutely have received public money if necessary. IIRC Macquarie did take a line of credit from the Fed.

It's a complex situation. Obama summed it up by saying (paraphrasing) 'it's not an easy choice, the thing that helps the people the most is the choice that makes us look like we're in bed with the banks'.

Plus the US made a profit on its actions in the GFC. They were loans given out.
 

bomma_man

Member
Rudd's first stimulus was bi-partisan. There's no chance it wouldn't have been implemented by a prospective Howard government.

Rudd was acting on advice from Treasury, which would have been the same given to Howard. And it's not as if Howard was a stranger to spending.

Oh I have no doubt that Howard and Costello would've. Abbott and hockey though?

And yes, while they were receiving advice from treasury they still had to make a bunch of politically unpalatable calls, and they made them fast, ours being the first stimulus package in the world iirc. Ken Henry says that Rudd had better intuition than him on stuff like this - he could see the impending disaster long before anyone else.
 

darkace

Banned
Oh I have no doubt that Howard and Costello would've. Abbott and hockey though?

Fair enough. I'd hope Abbott wouldn't have been enough of an idiot to not go forward with at least some guidance from the government in the economy while confidence was tanking. But he was Abbott.


The amount of advice both parties ignore from Treasury says that this was far from a given.

The amount of advice our political class does take from Treasury is pretty damn good when we compare it to other countries.

Can you imagine being in the US and being part of the technocratic economic elite? It'd be mind-numbing.
 
Growth of 3.1%, better than expected, although disposable income dropped by 1.1%.

A couple of days ago someone in the know came out and said they expected a good result, solely based on vast mining sales but whatever only the number will make headlines. Then all of a sudden ScoMo comes out and talks it down, blaming Labor for a potentially bad result. Now he's all smiles with a good result. Methinks it was a pretty transparent attempt to talk down the result when he knew the basic number would be good so he could look like a financial wizard!

More talk Colin Barnett could be replaced very soon in WA. Probably a desperate last attempt to regain the state next year and limit the bleed over federally as there are still rumblings the Labor party could get a very strong result in WA July 2.
 
Enrolment is up 2% relative to the last election, I wonder what effect, if any, that has on polling?

Its probably minorly favourable to Labor in that the groups most likely to not be enrolled are statistically more likely to vote Labor (2PP). Probably no real effect in terms of lower house seats though in that they also tend to be concentrated in solid red electorates anyway.

Might have some effect on the Senate but the outcomes there are all unknown with a few best guesses there anyway except the guaranteed ~3-4 seats per state to each of the majors and the territories nearly always going 1 each way.
 

darkace

Banned
Enrolment is up 2% relative to the last election, I wonder what effect, if any, that has on polling?

+ to ALP and GRN I'd imagine. It'd be younger people like myself.

I can't imagine it'd flip any HOR seats, but it might impact a few Senate seats.
 

Shandy

Member
More talk Colin Barnett could be replaced very soon in WA. Probably a desperate last attempt to regain the state next year and limit the bleed over federally as there are still rumblings the Labor party could get a very strong result in WA July 2.

Hell, it'd probably work. The perception I get is that everyone thinks the problems are his fault and his fault alone. Federal Lib's But The Future Refused To Change leadership shuffling doesn't seem to have clued people in to the fact that replacing Colin won't change shit with that party.
 
Hell, it'd probably work. The perception I get is that everyone thinks the problems are his fault and his fault alone. Federal Lib's But The Future Refused To Change leadership shuffling doesn't seem to have clued people in to the fact that replacing Colin won't change shit with that party.

Hey the future did change in that it looks likely they'll win at the moment. If they'd kept Abbott at this stage Shorten would either a) already being regarded as next prime minister or b) knifed by someone ambitious who wants the leadership now that it looks like less of a poison chalice.
 
Not election related, but you guys need to read the transcript for this trainwreck press conference from Queensland's shadow attorney-general. Gobsmacking stuff.

There's a few going around at the moment. Yesterday Julie Bishop had a train-wreck interview all about superannuation, then this morning Sarah Hanson-Young had a train-wreck interview about super and this afternoon everyone's favourite buffoon Arthur Sinodinas has a train-wreck interview about, you guessed it, superannuation. If there is anyone in Parliament that actually understands super I'd be surprised.
 

darkace

Banned
Trainwreck interviews happen all the time. It's really only problematic when they occur on a cabinet members portfolio. You can't be expected to be abreast every single legislative area in Australia.
 

elfinke

Member
Not election related, but you guys need to read the transcript for this trainwreck press conference from Queensland's shadow attorney-general. Gobsmacking stuff.

Good grief. At one point I quickly scrolled down to jump ahead in the transcript. The reporter and Mr Walker were still discussing separation of powers and that it was a police investigation... I had to double check that my phone hadn't just broken down and rendered the page thrice over or something.
 

i_am_ben

running_here_and_there
Trainwreck interviews happen all the time. It's really only problematic when they occur on a cabinet members portfolio. You can't be expected to be abreast every single legislative area in Australia.

well to be fair, Bishop is the Deputy Leader of the Liberals and as such should be held to a higher standard.


As if you wouldn't get Shorten to help with renovations, he'd mobilise the entire union!

So it'll be done unsafely, over budget, slow..oh wait. :p

I'd personally get Gillard's help. She knows how to fund some reservations....
 

munchie64

Member
Didn't know Mad as Hell was back so I watched them all before tonight's one. Still damn good. The bit about the papers tonight was amazing.

Good to see Chaser coming back too. At least these are some good parts of the long cycle.
 

darkace

Banned
well to be fair, Bishop is the Deputy Leader of the Liberals and as such should be held to a higher standard.

Didn't Bishop also get kicked out of the shadow Treasury role for comments regarding GST or inflation or something? I think she's not very good at staying abreast of things, tbh.
 

Yagharek

Member
Looks like there will be boats of refugees coming from Japan soon.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-02/japan-cattle-exports-ban-bovine-johnes/7471506

The Australian Livestock Exporters Council has confirmed Japanese officials have temporarily suspended live cattle imports from Australia.

A consignment of cattle that tested negative for the muscle wasting disease bovine Johne's in Australia went on to test positive upon arrival in Japan, prompting the ban.

Alison Penfold from the Livestock Exporters Council said Japan was a small but significant market, particularly for Wagyu breeders.

"Japan has advised the Department of Agriculture in Canberra that it has put a suspension in place," she said.
 

Yagharek

Member
I got called by ReachTel last night.

Questions were age, sex, first preference party (Lab, Lib, Grn, Nats, NXT, Other minor, Unsure), second preference i.e. which major party would you prefer, as well as which issues you rate most important (health, education, mental health, jobs, law/security).
 
I got called by ReachTel last night.

Questions were age, sex, first preference party (Lab, Lib, Grn, Nats, NXT, Other minor, Unsure), second preference i.e. which major party would you prefer, as well as which issues you rate most important (health, education, mental health, jobs, law/security).

Reachtel seem to be doing a lot of specific seat polling atm. They just released a poll from Longman, Wyatt Roy's seat and it shows a 6.9% swing to Labor making it 50/50. They also did Nikolic's seat in Tasmania, Bass, and it's now 51/49 to Labor.
 
Its really starting to look like the net result of this may be to put Turnbull in a worse position than he was before the Double Dissolution: a less tractable Senate , combined with losing a larger proportion of the Coalition MPs who support him than those who oppose him.
 
Unfortunately for the Coalition, there's literally nobody else capable of replacing Malcom who won't immediately alienate the broader electorate except maybe Julie Bishop, but any attempt to veer back towards the right is political suicide, and yet the delcons are hampering any attempt to actually be 'moderate'. There's simply no win for them, it's only a matter of when they eventually lose, it's either lose government this election or self-destruct after retaking government with a slim majority.

Edit: And Fairfax has tipped. Welp, expect the Coalition become more desperate.
 

Yagharek

Member
Reachtel seem to be doing a lot of specific seat polling atm. They just released a poll from Longman, Wyatt Roy's seat and it shows a 6.9% swing to Labor making it 50/50. They also did Nikolic's seat in Tasmania, Bass, and it's now 51/49 to Labor.

Interesting. My electorate is Durack which I thought was a safe Liberal seat.
 
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