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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened

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S

Spinifex

Member
LOL That smile after blowing the gunsmoke, Australia's version of:

OpazaDr.gif
 
C

CrazedProfessional

Member
Elaugaufein said:
My breakdown of Queensland Senate Parties (by ballot order)

Disclaimer: I lean left and have a fairly large anti-authoritarian streak. YMMV.
Click to expand...

I would actually argue that the KAP are Protectionist Socialists given that their policies seem to be basically nationalizing agriculture and removing Free Trade.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
CrazedProfessional said:
I would actually argue that the KAP are Protectionist Socialists given that their policies seem to be basically nationalizing agriculture and removing Free Trade.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree at all. So are the Nationals at their core. They are Socialists for Farmers/Graziers/Rural Communities that the above require and they didn't much care about the rest. There are reasons beyond their social conservatism that rural electorates were so loyal to the Nationals historically, they really did take care of their constituency.

Their alliance with the Libs has made them into NeoLibs for the rest of Australia and added a big helping of conflict of influence in terms of Coal / Natural Gas interests vs agricultural land that they've handled poorly.

Bernbaum said:
We had our Trump moment in the nineties with Pauline Hanson. Her channeling of xenophobia, populism and disenchantment with the establishment is a microcosm of what Trump is doing in the US. Perhaps he cribbed notes on the rise of One Nation for his own strategy.
Click to expand...

I'm going to disagree a bit, if only because Clive Palmer's rise is also very reminiscent (playing on his own Brand and pretending to be a Maverick/Outsider). Hanson for all of her (many many) faults, really was an outsider and almost certainly believed her own spiel.
 
B

Bernbaum

Member
Elaugaufein said:
I'm going to disagree a bit, if only because Clive Palmer's rise is also very reminiscent (playing on his own Brand and pretending to be a Maverick/Outsider). Hanson for all of her (many many) faults, really was an outsider and almost certainly believed her own spiel.
Click to expand...
My point is that parallels between the mechanisms for success can be drawn between Trump and Hanson, if not their convictions or motivation. Trump's usage of the Southern strategy may not be sincere but one of the most recent examples of its success in the Anglosphere can be found in late 90's Australia.

Good write up by the way.
 
R

RelaxedOtter

Member
Elaugaufein said:
Family First - Non-indicative name alert. Anti-LGBT Christian hard right nutjobs. (Poorly) Pretends to be a secular Anti-LGBT party.
Click to expand...

I saw this name on the pamphlet and immediately made the asumption that they were a religious hate group, glad to see my assumption to never vote for any party with "Family" in their name is correct.

Thanks for the post, good to get some info on a couple of the parties here.
 
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elfinke

Member
Omikron said:
While you are on that topic....


https://twitter.com/RealBobKatter/status/742906309192744960
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The Betoota Advocate statement about that video is pretty great. They're doing pretty good work.

One point we would like to make is, that, with 166 mass shootings having happened already in America this year, there is literally no way that Katter’s Australian Party could have shared this video without being accused of showing insensitivity towards lives that have been lost as a result of America’s gun epidemic.
Click to expand...
 
Y

Yagharek

Member
Bob Katter is a piece of shit.

JJJ Hack interview attempt with him made reference to his pleas about farmer suicides, but as soon as gay suicides were mentioned he walked away from the interviewer.
 
M

Mr_Moogle

Member
Bernbaum said:
We had our Trump moment in the nineties with Pauline Hanson. Her channeling of xenophobia, populism and disenchantment with the establishment is a microcosm of what Trump is doing in the US. Perhaps he cribbed notes on the rise of One Nation for his own strategy.
Click to expand...

I remember when I was a kid, my step mother's father handing me one of her racist pamphlets. It was all the usual anti-immigration bullshit. The weird thing was the old man immigrated to Australia in the 1940's after leaving Europe. He was as fresh off the boat as you could get. The truth was he wasn't really anti-immigration. He just didn't like anybody with dark skin.
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
Mr_Moogle said:
I remember when I was a kid, my step mother's father handing me one of her racist pamphlets. It was all the usual anti-immigration bullshit. The weird thing was the old man immigrated to Australia in the 1940's after leaving Europe. He was as fresh off the boat as you could get. The truth was he wasn't really anti-immigration. He just didn't like anybody with dark skin.
Click to expand...

'Fresh off the boat" refers to having just arrived (like within the past decade tops), 50 years ago isn't fresh of the boat. Sadly it's not uncommon for immigrants to arrive , integrate and then become vocally anti-immigrant, especially if their culture group ends up being counted "one of us" by the dominant paradigm. My family had German immigrants, who anglicized their surname post War (because of the distrust Germans faced), but many of them are anti-immigration now.
 
Y

Yagharek

Member
The defence debate on the press council today with marise Payne and the shadow minister Stephen conroy is in stark contrast to any other debate this election campaign. It is patient, respectful and explained clearly.

Obviously this is a function of the need to appear bipartisan in this portfolio but it is a remarkable contrast to the carnival of stupid in every other portfolio.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
I bet they have all the ciggies they need, xboxs and live the life of luxury on a tropical island while getting more money per week than pensioners and disability combined! The Government must be getting a little desperate to roll this one out.

Anyway, the final Debate is on in about 40mins on myspace or something. If no one watches a debate did it really happen? Will both sides claim victory anyway?
 
A

Aarglefarg

Member
bobnowhere said:
I bet they have all the ciggies they need, xboxs and live the life of luxury on a tropical island while getting more money per week than pensioners and disability combined! The Government must be getting a little desperate to roll this one out.

Anyway, the final Debate is on in about 40mins on myspace or something. If no one watches a debate did it really happen? Will both sides claim victory anyway?
Click to expand...
The debate will be on ABC News 24 too. :)

Wow Shorten is off to an amazing start and Turnbull is off to an awful start.
On a question about trust, Turnbull said he's against changing Prime Ministers. Clunk.
Shorten: Who do you trust to help first homeowners, hold banks to account etc.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Ipsos: 51(0)/49(0) ALP/Lib 2pp

Lib -> 39(-3) Lab -> 33(-3)!

I smell a minority government of Don't Know and Someone Else in the making.


Also, Shut up Joe!

Bill needs to work out how to sit in his chair, looks uncomfortable.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Interesting perspective from Barry Cassidy suggesting it isn't a fait accompli. Internal ALP polling puts the the ALP line-ball or ahead in 18 marginals instead of the 8-12 that Newspoll suggests. Apparently the ALP polling takes into account current preferences while commercial polls only assign automatically from the last elections results.

e.g. Newspoll puts Robertson at 51/49 to the Libs while internal polling points to 53/47 Lab. Might be a more interesting night than it seems atm.


Someone didn't get an invite to the launch!

1466301741106.jpg
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
Interesting perspective from Barry Cassidy suggesting it isn't a fait accompli. Internal ALP polling puts the the ALP line-ball or ahead in 18 marginals instead of the 8-12 that Newspoll suggests. Apparently the ALP polling takes into account current preferences while commercial polls only assign automatically from the last elections results.

e.g. Newspoll puts Robertson at 51/49 to the Libs while internal polling points to 53/47 Lab. Might be a more interesting night than it seems atm.
Click to expand...

You always have to be careful of internal polling though even given a genuine interest in accurate results the same kind of bias to favourable results that tends to eventuate in commerce from the possibility of repeat business can still occur.
 
R

Rubixcuba

Banned
Didnt the UK General Election last year show that polls can be very, very, very wrong?

Rudd is in Russia at the moment, was given a shout out by Shorten.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Turnbull's voice is sounding rough on ABC24 atm! It's going, going...

Rubixcuba said:
Didnt the UK General Election last year show that polls can be very, very, very wrong?
Click to expand...

I think a part of that had to do with voluntary voting.

They never picked the last QLD state result though Newman was universally disliked, Turnbull is just disappointing, people aren't going into the voting booth to give him a kicking.
 
M

Marky Mark

Member
RelaxedOtter said:
I saw this name on the pamphlet and immediately made the asumption that they were a religious hate group, glad to see my assumption to never vote for any party with "Family" in their name is correct.

Thanks for the post, good to get some info on a couple of the parties here.
Click to expand...
My sister voted for them a few elections ago based on name alone I think. I told her later and she regretted her decision.
 
D

darkace

Banned
Betting agencies are less than 1.15 for the LNP. It's practically a shoe-in for the LNP at this stage. Which is fine, I don't have a problem with a small-l led LNP government holding power without the senate.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Looks like Zed Seselja had his own Jeb Bush moment at his launch today.

"At this point you can clap if you want," he said, after making a declaration about personal freedom ("the best person to be in charge of your future is you").
Click to expand...

Couldn't happen to a nicer chap.

Lots of Zed advertising in Canberra, the Greens must be getting close again to pinching the Liberal senate seat.
 
Y

Yagharek

Member
darkace said:
Betting agencies are less than 1.15 for the LNP. It's practically a shoe-in for the LNP at this stage. Which is fine, I don't have a problem with a small-l led LNP government holding power without the senate.
Click to expand...

What's going to be the LNP tantrum theme for the next 3 years if they win gov't but with a reduced majority in the house of reps and a senate with a lab/grn/nxt majority necessitating negotiation?

God help them if they have a reps majority of +1 and have to parachute someone in (from a helicopter) for the speakers chair.
 
C

Candescence

Member
Of course, both major parties have declared that they'll govern in their own right or not at all, because of some perceived belief that any association with the Gillard minority government is bad. Someone's gonna have to break that vow.
 
Z

zorlaczerohero

Banned
Aarglefarg said:
77% GRN
63% ALP
38% LNP

On the rating of the trustworthiness and competency of the leaders, I started thinking about how bad the last 8 months have been for Turnbull. I knew he would be a disappointment for a lot of people, thinking that people would realise he didn't line up ideologically with whatever people projected onto him. But I expected him to be more competent.
Click to expand...

Almost identical to my results. But not eligible to apply for citizenship for a few months, then have to take the test and the ceremony etc. I'll sit this one out so I can act superior and blame everyone else until the next election!
 
H

hidys

Member
bobnowhere said:
They never picked the last QLD state result though Newman was universally disliked, Turnbull is just disappointing, people aren't going into the voting booth to give him a kicking.
Click to expand...

Something that concerns me at the moment is that I've just learnt that Labor received a record number of preferences from minor parties in 2013, meaning that the polls might be overestimating Labor's chances since I would bet that they won't receive the same level of preferences this time.
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
hidys said:
Something that concerns me at the moment is that I've just learnt that Labor received a record number of preferences from minor parties in 2013, meaning that the polls might be overestimating Labor's chances since I would bet that they won't receive the same level of preferences this time.
Click to expand...

They're (the Unions) are still running put the Libs Last at the polling places (which may accidentally elect a One Nationer in the Senate and / or Rural Queensland).

The Senate preference flow may go even more strongly to Labor partly as vengeance for the Senate Reform on the LNP and Greens and mostly because given 6 numbers you'd have to be a bit of a plonker to not put your preferred Major in at 6 if nothing else.
 
H

hidys

Member
Elaugaufein said:
They're (the Unions) are still running put the Libs Last at the polling places (which may accidentally elect a One Nationer in the Senate and / or Rural Queensland).

The Senate preference flow may go even more strongly to Labor partly as vengeance for the Senate Reform on the LNP and Greens and mostly because given 6 numbers you'd have to be a bit of a plonker to not put your preferred Major in at 6 if nothing else.
Click to expand...

I'd predict that Pauline Hanson will win a Senate seat anyway but I doubt that the Put the Liberals Last campaign will elect any One Nation Candidate in the House of Reps.

I hope you are right but I think it is fair to say that in the last few elections (including 2013) the polls have been pretty unreliable when it comes to minor party preferences.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
hidys said:
I'd predict that Pauline Hanson will win a Senate seat anyway but I doubt that the Put the Liberals Last campaign will elect any One Nation Candidate in the House of Reps.

I hope you are right but I think it is fair to say that in the last few elections (including 2013) the polls have been pretty unreliable when it comes to minor party preferences.
Click to expand...

One Nation almost won a seat at the election that tossed Newman because of it. Never underestimate how much regional Queensland likes Pauline Hanson.

Yes, but I expect that over the next 15 years the data will stabilize , with the new Senate system there's far less to gain from trying to play Senate roulette so the bizarre and unpredictable flow on from ever changing GTs should settle. This year is a big bag of nobody knows since we don't know how well people will follow the parties recommendations without GTs forcing it.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
This might be the best unintentionally bad political ad I've ever seen!

Fake Tradie

Whoever did this must be a plant

Stick with the current mob for a while - Glowing endorsement that one.
 
A

Antiwhippy

the holder of the trombone
Things are bad but we might as well stick with it!

Yeah, saw this on TV and I couldn't believe that they approved it.
 
i_am_ben

i_am_ben

running_here_and_there
darkace said:
He's been formulating actual policy. It takes time.
Click to expand...

His policy development in his first 9 months was Ruddesq at best.

Remember his State income tax policy which lasted a day before being shot down, and almost derailed COAG? That was an honest to god clusterfuck.
 
L

legend166

Member
bobnowhere said:
This might be the best unintentionally bad political ad I've ever seen!

Fake Tradie

Whoever did this must be a plant

Stick with the current mob for a while - Glowing endorsement that one.
Click to expand...

I've been in Europe for the last three weeks. I turned on the TV yesterday and that was the first ad I'd seen for the election. Gave me a good laugh.

Also I don't understand the "he's formulating policy" line. Turnbull is a guy who seems to have been coveting the PM job for decades.
 
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