Maybe. Maybe not. If its so clear cut whats going to happen in economics and the markets you would've shorted the pound right? Did you? Are you posting from your mega yacht off the coast of Monaco right now?
I'm not even going to dignify this with a response.
Maybe the UK will make new trade deals?
Let's assume for a second that the UK government has as much pull as the unified EU market when making trade deals. Let's also assume that they have the required technical expertise in their public service for making these deals as of today, or in the foreseeable future. Neither of these are true, but lets assume they are.
First off, when the UK leaves it has no trade treaties with any other country in the world. This means all British goods will incur new or higher tariffs in all trading partner countries, British goods become more expensive when compared to comparable goods produced elsewhere. There is not a magic button here, it typically takes decades to either create new treaties or join an existing one. This will see the purchasing power of the British lower classes plummet.
Furthermore, London is the financial centre of the EU because the UK is both in the EU and is relatively friendly to financial services. Absent the UK having a regulatory treaty with the EU (which they can't without being part of the EU) financial services will be forced to move to the mainland. Even prior the vote there was work underway on this, the first movements will begin to occur in a couple of weeks. Several other sectors are similarly at risk. The financial sector is the single largest employer in the UK, and the London financial industry is the largest in the world. This would be utterly devastating to the British economy.
Thirdly, absent the EU treaties the UK no longer has visa free access to EU states and the same is true of the EU to the UK. There are enormous numbers of British ex-pats who live on the continent and enormous numbers of non-UK EU citizens who live in the UK. Even if the UK & EU manage to push through a very hasty set of reforms allowing those who have lived there for n years to remain we are still talking about pretty significant labour displacement & disruption.
The UK might make new treaties. But the time lapse, lack of economic pull and the severe disruption that is already underway will mean outcomes will be bad for the foreseeable future. I'd say on the worse side of IMF/BoE projections. And there is a serious chance this lack of economic pull would mean their ability to negotiate new treaties would be seriously compromised.
Maybe they'll be more easily able to control their monetary policy in the future?
The Bank of England is currently struggling just above the ZLB, and the likely response to the Brexit is either significant deflation or stagflation, and a recession starting within 18 months. The BoE doesn't have the ammunition to fight any of these in current global conditions.
Maybe they'll be able to introduce their own legislation and regulations to improve their productivity and innovation?
If the UK decides it wants access to the single market it also needs to adopt single market rules, effectively accepting all EU regulation but without having any voice in that regulation. That's assuming France & Germany don't just block UK access to the single market out of spite.
Nobody fucking knows. To me it just sounds like your spouting the same scare tactics that the 'experts' who needed to get tax payer bailouts have been spouting.
Sure thing.
