Dunno what you're saying in this word salad.
The issue with leaving the European Union is that the United Kingdom's main trade partner is the European Union itself. Unless the United Kingdom is a really special nation with a significant amount of leverage, more so than the European Union, you have to be nuts to think they are going to get a better deal than Norway, who doesn't get a vote yet still has to abide by EU regulations and pay contributions to enter the EEA, or Switzerland, who has bilateral deals and access to the single market yet also has to take part of regulations and pay contributions. And unlike those two countries, the United Kingdom isn't mostly self-sufficient like Norway (natural resources) or geographically in the center of the whole of Europe (Switzerland).
Overnight, we saw the European Union (or Germany I guess) argue that they're not going to give the United Kingdom preferred access to the single market. You don't leave something like the European Union like this and go along as if nothing has happened or you haven't impacted the political stability of the region.
No, I'm not Nostradamus. But its common sense to assume that the United Kingdom isn't the British Empire anymore. Time (two years) isn't on their side and they don't have the economic or cultural pull to get a single market the size of the European Union or the United States to give them preferential treaties.
No one saw a Brexit actually happening because it seemed like it was completely against British economic interests to do so. Stock markets don't behave rationally when there's uncertainty and this is peak uncertainty when you basically say that in two years time that you're going to leave the union that give you access to the single market that makes up 50% of your exports and imports.
So really instead of posting memes and one sentence zingers, maybe you'd like to engage with our discussion and educate us. As an Australian outside looking in, I'm not seeing any long term advantages to exiting the European Union so it'd be somewhat appreciated if you're willing to tell us why you're so optimistic.
I'm not overly optimistic on the global economy. But tbh, your entire argument relies on the EU being incredibly spiteful and not wanting to do business with, until yesterday, the worlds 4th largest economy and the 2nd largest in Europe. It doesn't benefit anyone to do that. And honestly, isn't that a good argument to not want to be a part of a system that could do something so emotional and spiteful? You're suggesting mutually assured economic destruction. I just think thats far fetched and hysterical.
The OP asked whats going to happen. I said nobody knows. We're all just armchair experts. Sure some of us have degrees in economics and finance from shit tier universities and spend far too much time being inflammatory on video game message boards and generally being dickheads. But even they don't know whats going to happen. Honestly, the people who say they have all the answers are usually the ones that know the least. Economics is a soft science, full of opinions and feelings and ideology. And its often wrong. You dont have the answers, Sway. Noone does.
All that we really know is that we're currently watching a few rich cunts win and lose 'money' while the rest of us watch. For the first time in a long time though, the people got to speak and they have given a big fuck you to the politicians and the financial industry.
The reasons I am pessimistic on the EU are:
the way they handled the Eurozone Crisis; their lack of response to the Ukraine conflict;
the way they have become corrupt to big business (VW scandal); and the way they have 'dealt' with migrant crisis. The UK are making a gamble. Trading short term pain for hopefully long term sovereignty and not having to deal with the EUs shit.
Honestly, the way the eurozone crisis was handled is what makes me the most pessimistic. Everyone is talking about how we should just listen to the economists. But these are the same economists that forced non-keynesian austerity measures on PIGS which i think we can all agree has been a complete fucking failure. I mean I don't know how much you want me to go into it or not. But honestly, the result was that the mistakes of the banks (aka the experts) have gotten passed down on to the people. Its fucking bullshit. And its what the people of the UK have voted to try and avoid.
Imagine if the economy in Australia tanks because some bank cunts fuck up and then we have to rely on Indonesia to lend us money at insane rates to keep the country going because we basically can't use monetary policy to try and help stimulate it; our currency cant be devalued so we cant sell our cheap shit to other countries; and at the same time, some Indonesian dude in a suit is telling OUR government that they have to make all these cuts to the budget otherwise no money. Unemployment grows to 30%. A whole bunch of immigrants are flooding in through our borders cause we can't afford to deal with it. Tax receipts are down so we are unable to service our new debts. And the shit just spirals out of control and theres nothing we can do about it because we have no sovereignty on the way our country is run. You can try and internally devalue your currency (aka cut wages) but you'll NEVER be able to compete with China or India so you're fucked. And all at the same time some cunts in New Zealand are telling Indonesia to be even harsher to us because we've of long standing political and cultural reasons (see: spitefulness).
The above happened to Greece. I'm not speculating on some sky is falling doomsday mutually assured economic destruction scenario. I'm basing my pessimism on the EU of how they handled an economic crisis a few years ago. If I had a chance to get out of that system before losing all sovereignty I would.
A lot of my friends that are pro-EU are anti-austerity. Isn't that weird?
A lot of my friends that are pro-EU are anti-TPP. Isn't that weird?
Its almost like they don't know what they're talking about. ~shrugs~
