Antiwhippy
the holder of the trombone
I don't see how the liberals being in a worse position than they were is a victory for them.
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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened
- Thread starter Bernbaum
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Shorten will bide his time just like Abbott did after the 2010 election.
To clarify the AEC isn't "wrong" rather that it only concerns votes which have been counted. The Antony Green is factoring in that later counting tends to flow to the Coalition (which it always does). It's more likely that Labor will get about 70-71 seats while the Coalition gets 74-75.
They actually aren't that different from Green's so don't be getting too worried about a Coalition majority, but don't rule it out either. Having said that you probably should rule out a Labor minority since it very very unlikely.
Also the only people who could possibly want Shorten gone are people who just plain don't like him or have lost their minds. After a defeat of the scale of 2013 going on to very likely take away the governments majority is an amazing feet.
Get used to the idea that Shorten will be the leader of Labor.
They actually aren't that different from Green's so don't be getting too worried about a Coalition majority, but don't rule it out either. Having said that you probably should rule out a Labor minority since it very very unlikely.
Also the only people who could possibly want Shorten gone are people who just plain don't like him or have lost their minds. After a defeat of the scale of 2013 going on to very likely take away the governments majority is an amazing feet.
Get used to the idea that Shorten will be the leader of Labor.
D.Lo
Member
I don't see how Labor being in opposition can be seen as a 'good' result, just a 'better' result than expected.
Comparing results, literal actual electoral results, the Libs did better than Labor.
IMO both parties Bradburied this election. Both were on the nose with the electorate. Labor Bradburied it but still came second.
For sure. I'm just saying it's not like Labor did so incredibly well either.
Still among the best result a first term opposition has ever achieved in Australian history.
Which cross bencher feels comfortable dealing with the Libs ATM?
Katter out of principle is the only cross bencher they can count on.
If Libs finish on 74 it's total game on
McGowan and Xenophon are both ex-Libs.
My guess is that the incumbent Malcolm Turnbull will get the first opportunity to form government and neither McGowan, Wilkie or the NXT member (who I CBF looking up the name of) will sign up to a deal with Labor.
D.Lo
Member
They gained seats (not enough to actually win) but their actual votes/first preferences went down from last election.
The ALP hasn't given a shit about first preference votes since the 90s.
Hell they kept Beazley on after 1998 and in seat terms Shorten did better than he did.
And yet despite that the LNP failed to win either. Woeful effort, and seeing Morrison on Saturday evening reminding everyone of that fact was hilarious given that they were doing just as bad.
It's like, congratulations, youre a better swimmer than Harold Holt.
Bernardi's 7:30 Report interview was...confusing.
He seemed to think they lost majority government because they lost millions of votes to One Nation and the CDP in the Senate but like, that's the Senate Cory. You lost majority government because you got kicked in the teeth hard in marginal seats across NSW and Tas.
It left me wondering why he even bothered doing the interview since it didn't appear to say or achieve much or anything.
He seemed to think they lost majority government because they lost millions of votes to One Nation and the CDP in the Senate but like, that's the Senate Cory. You lost majority government because you got kicked in the teeth hard in marginal seats across NSW and Tas.
It left me wondering why he even bothered doing the interview since it didn't appear to say or achieve much or anything.
NXT has just formed an alliance with Jay Weatherill (SA Labor leader) at state level here in SA. It's all in the media. NXT is about SA jobs and manufacturing initiative packages.
He's going Labor if he can IMO
D.Lo
Member
WTF no? Beazley gained 18 seats!
Beazley did much much better against a much stronger, more united Coallition. He had a massive massive swing, won 2PP by two points, Labor's primary bounced back massively.
And he still lost the next election anyway.
Elaugaufein
Member
I believe Bandt, NXT, Gowan and Wilke
are Labor's most likely potential allies and all but Bandt could go the other way easily (Gowan's from a traditionally Liberal seat, Wilke got burned by Labor last time). Katter is a possibility for the ALP but SSM may be a deal breaker. That means Labor needs at least 71 seats (to have any chance at all) and probably 73 and potential Senate Control (only realistic with NXT + Greens) which is the only thing like to overcome the Coalition's larger seat count in the House in terms of wheeling and dealing.
My understanding is that in SA the Libs can't form government anyway.
If the seats were reversed federally Labor would easily form government likely with NXT support but I really don't think that Labor gets 71 seats and all of the crossbench MPs support them.
Sure his seat gains were better but Labor is in a far stronger position now than in '98. We've got the opportunity to actually pass legislation through a hung parliament even if Turnbull forms government.
Elaugaufein
Member
No, nor do I. I think Labor needs 73 (as well as being able to offer Senate control) which is likely to get NXT's attention. At that point they just need 1 independent. 72 is an outside. 71 is pretty much no.
Also order to form government doesn't really matter these days , deals will be done over the phone/net long before anyone gets a chance and only one can have the numbers.
D.Lo
Member
You said seats. That was factually incorrect.
And I'm talking about their own results, not the position. Labor's only in a better position because of a zany cross bench (and starting not as far behind as they were in 96)
By every metric Beazley did far better in 98 than Shorten has done now - seats, Primary, 2PP, 2PP swing, primary swing.
The incumbent Tony Smith maybe?
Though he might want a promotion given that the junior ministry has some vacancies.
Elaugaufein
Member
Hmmm. Likely a NXTer if they get the 2nd Seat (everyone else is going to want to be on the Floor). In other cases someone's gotta take it and it's probably going to be a pot sweetener for not Greens / NXT / Major (give up legislative influence for higher pay cheque and status).
In electorare early votes are already counted. Outanding votes are postal (Coalition) , absent on polling day (skews young , probably flows to Labor eventually (apart from where it's a Labor / Greens contest) and out of electorate pre-poll (null overall).
D.Lo
Member
Yeah I expect an NXT or independent even if they get a majority.
Basically only old people postal vote.
Elaugaufein
Member
Old People + extreme rural which is generally reliably Nat / CLP / LNP.
Composition of the senate is brutal for Libs. No claim of stability or productive governance can be made with the composition from how I understand it. HoR cross benchers will know this.
i dare say the composition of the senate was what this election was about and who ever can navigate the senate deserves to from government.
It looks near impossible for the Libs to navigate.
D.Lo
Member
Totally true, but not what the constitution says unfortunately.
What this means is maybe another DD in a year, I think.
Antiwhippy
the holder of the trombone
Hey he's my local member.
Don't really know much about him though ever since he became speaker.
Elaugaufein
Member
On current likely composition Labor / Greens / NXT can pass motions (and thus easily block). Libs will need NXT + One Nation (lol) and all but one Crossbench if Labor / Greens block. Having to suck up to One Nation is the best bit I think.
Fair enough I guess Beazley was dealing with a pretty bad position.
But a 15-16 seat swing is still damn good and Labor is still in a strong position stronger than it has ever been after one term of Conservative government. Lets not forget that Malcolm Turnbull's popularity was sky high just a few months ago. Shorten has delivered a result better than many were expecting, certainly better than I thought would happen.
D.Lo
Member
Absolutely, I assumed Turnbull would get a significantly reduced but clear majority.
I think of this like the Howard/Abbott situation though - Howard didn't win, Keating lost. Abbott didn't win, Labor lost (through self inflicted wounds). Of course even Abbott inflicted some wounds on Labor, but I don't think Shorten inflicted any wounds on the Libs, they did it all themselves.
I feel like all Labor's gains here were because of Bowen. He completely neutralised any LNP potential scare campaign. All they had was the NG policy scare.
Given the style of "memorable" politicians this past decade I'd prefer a grey man or woman than a character.
roosters93
Member
I wonder if it's even fair anymore to try and compare say the results in isolation of Shorten's Labor Party now with Beazley's in the 1998 election. I say that because of the significant disparity (I imagine), between voter loyalty of 18 years ago and of now.
Plus, while I am bit too young to recall (and too lazy to look up now), I imagine the political party landscape was also a little less bountiful compared to the numerous parties popping up in the HoR now too.
Plus, while I am bit too young to recall (and too lazy to look up now), I imagine the political party landscape was also a little less bountiful compared to the numerous parties popping up in the HoR now too.
There was at least ON and the Democrats for a while I guess hey
Elaugaufein
Member
That's generally more in Beazley's favor than against. The Democrats positioned themselves to take seats from both majors far more than the Greens (and theres only 1 lower house Green now). By contrast most of the current independents are either ex-Coalition or more right than them. So Shorten has an easier time catching Coalition totals than Beazely did.
30yearsofhurt
Member
Not a hope in hell that happens. it'll be offered but no cross-bencher will take it. They're not that vain or stupid.
EatChildren
Currently polling second in Australia's federal election (first in the Gold Coast), this feral may one day be your Bogan King.
At least we got some One Nation reps in the senate to stop those pesky Muslims and their Halal Sharia.
Antiwhippy
the holder of the trombone
At least if they try to get rid of halal snack packs we might see voters turn on them in record time.
Watch her go all in on the chinese as well
Elaugaufein
Member
And the Coalition need them to get legislation through the Senate , going to be great. Only good side is that NXT doesn't seem likely to go along with that stupidity and they are needed too. If it wasn't for that it'd be tragic rather than funny.
I once saw a Muslim woman at the shops with her three children. Three! We may as well be a Muslim majority country! Also, also! She pushed her trolley really slowly. Prolly wunna them terrorist types.
30yearsofhurt
Member
Fixed that for you.
Candescence
Member
Yep. Labor would have a much easier time with the senate if in government, because since they and the Greens basically vote in tandem, they'd need only a few extra votes, and NXT would fit the bill and would generally be fine with Labor's policies, though apparently Xenophon isn't keen on Labor's negative gearing fixes for some reason.
Turnbull, on the other hand, has to worry about the hard-right of his own party, who themselves publicly consider One Nation repugnant, and a crossbench who vary between centrist and conservative. And judging by possible senate numbers, he might need about 7-9 votes to get anything that isn't sensible past Labor and the Greens. No matter who wins, Turnbull loses.
bobnowhere
Member
Self interest, Nick's a property baron. 11+ and counting.
Last few days have been fun, there's nothing quite as spectacular as Tories spurned by the electorate throwing their toys out of the pram when their born to rule terms end.
So on the proviso that the close seat margins generally hold after the bulk of the pre-/postal count, it'll be 72-72 even, with 6 others. Granted, Forde could easily fall to LNP (literally less than a quarter of a percent separates them) but likewise so could Chisholm fall back to ALP (only 70% counted and the swing to LNP seems oddly inconsistent).
Anyway, assuming (hoping against hope maybe) that Labor comes out of this with the 72-72 split, then we know Katter and Bandt will make it effectively 73-73, and it sounds like Wilkie will bat for Labor, making it 73-74. Now because McGowan says (for what it's worth) that she's not making any deals, that leaves Xenophon with two seats who can decide to either form majority with Labor (76) or form no government at all (LNP could get to 75, tops).
I can easily see Xenophon relishing in the spotlight as a diplomatic figure, rescuing the government from chaos, and cutting a reasonable deal of some sort with Labor.
But I guess this is all moot because in a few hours LNP is going to easily make it to 76, aren't they? =(
Anyway, assuming (hoping against hope maybe) that Labor comes out of this with the 72-72 split, then we know Katter and Bandt will make it effectively 73-73, and it sounds like Wilkie will bat for Labor, making it 73-74. Now because McGowan says (for what it's worth) that she's not making any deals, that leaves Xenophon with two seats who can decide to either form majority with Labor (76) or form no government at all (LNP could get to 75, tops).
I can easily see Xenophon relishing in the spotlight as a diplomatic figure, rescuing the government from chaos, and cutting a reasonable deal of some sort with Labor.
But I guess this is all moot because in a few hours LNP is going to easily make it to 76, aren't they? =(
Marky Mark
Member
AB, not halal snack pack.
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