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[Aarglefarg]

Bill Shorten is on now with a green tie, saying regardless if you voted Labor, a minor party/independent or the Liberals, he works for you.

Shorten: "Turnbull should quit" due to the instability he's caused. "He's brexited himself"? "David Cameron of the Southern Hemisphere".

 

[HowZatOZ]

Bill Shorten is on now with a green tie, saying regardless if you voted Labor, a minor party/independent or the Liberals, he works for you.

Shorten: "Turnbull should quit" due to the instability he's caused. "He's brexited himself"? "David Cameron of the Southern Hemisphere".

Well he isn't lying. Turnbull called a double dissolution on the pretext that a minority government wasn't letting him pass legislation, yet we are now in that exact same situation again. He's got egg all over his face and Shorten is eating it off with a big smile on his face, a well-deserved one at that.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Bill Shorten is on now with a green tie, saying regardless if you voted Labor, a minor party/independent or the Liberals, he works for you.

Shorten: "Turnbull should quit" due to the instability he's caused. "He's brexited himself"? "David Cameron of the Southern Hemisphere".

If the Senate projections I've heard are accurate then Shorten has an interesting ace up his sleeve ALP/Greens/NXT would control the Senate which means that Nick's pretty much guaranteed to get what he wants if he sides with them, whereas Turnbull would have to wrangle 6/7 of the Crossbench. So if Labor can pick up 73 seats they can probably make the most appealing offer (they'd only need one of the other 3 independents to make 76 in that case since Bandt will back them).

We may well and up with no government until the Senate results are clear as a result, since it has a major effect on what can be promised.

 

[danm999]

Yeah if Shorten is smart he'll point out Turnbull called the DD simply because he couldn't negotiate with eight senatorial cross benchers. Now he has to negotiate with at least 13, assuming he gets the House behind him.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Pauline Hanson
Bob Katter
Clive Palmer
Joh Bjelke-Peterson

You're welcome

Its bizarre because the only thing these people have in common is populism and some kind of right wing stance (but that's iffy since Palmer was economic right and Katter is social). You could argue authoritarianism but Palmer really didn't run much that way at all.

We just seem to like people who say 'common wisdom' with confidence even when it's idiocy.

 

[darkace]

Government with NXT holding BOP is my dream scenario. Although I'd prefer it to be the LNP in this situation, as it'd mean the loony-right would be neutered. Good stuff.

Although if the Greens have BOP I imagine it would mean a redo of the carbon tax rather than an ETS, which is definitely a good thing.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Government with NXT holding BOP is my dream scenario. Although I'd prefer it to be the LNP in this situation. Good stuff.

Although if the Greens have BOP I imagine it would mean a redo of the carbon tax rather than an ETS, which is definitely a good thing.

Greens will be part of balance of power if Labor just out of necessity. Conversely LNP will only turn to them if can't negotiate with the (mostly conservative) independents or Labor.

One Nation poses a considerable problem too, only a handful of the LNP will want to be seen dealing with them (some because it tars them with racism, some because it splits the conservative vote, even Abbot's backers won't want to deal with them since Abbott loathed them.) Going to be in for interesting times.

 

[HowZatOZ]

Its bizarre because the only thing these people have in common is populism and some kind of right wing stance (but that's iffy since Palmer was economic right and Katter is social). You could argue authoritarianism but Palmer really didn't run much that way at all.

We just seem to like people who say 'common wisdom' with confidence even when it's idiocy.

We have a bias towards popular figures. Its why the average voter just votes for whoever they think looks nice leading the party and not the actual party.

 

[Antiwhippy]

People look at pualine hanson and clive palmer and think that they look nice?

 

[Candescence]

Greens will be part of balance of power if Labor just out of necessity. Conversely LNP will only turn to them if can't negotiate with the (mostly conservative) independents or Labor.

One Nation poses a considerable problem too, only a handful of the LNP will want to be seen dealing with them (some because it tars them with racism, some because it splits the conservative vote, even Abbot's backers won't want to deal with them since Abbott loathed them.) Going to be in for interesting times.

Speaking of One Nation, back in the day, didn't Howard assign Abbot with the task of essentially destroying One Nation's popular support to prevent further erosion of Coalition votes?

 

[danm999]

Speaking of One Nation, back in the day, didn't Howard assign Abbot with the task of essentially destroying One Nation's popular support to prevent further erosion of Coalition votes?

Did he? Yet another piece in his long legacy of failure.

 

[Omikron]

This is *wonderful* from Nikolic.

https://www.facebook.com/AndrewNikolic4Bass/posts/1049667678435077

 

[bomma_man]

Speaking of One Nation, back in the day, didn't Howard assign Abbot with the task of essentially destroying One Nation's popular support to prevent further erosion of Coalition votes?

Yep, and Pauline's now taking credit for Howard's refugee policy.

 

[Bernbaum]

Did he? Yet another piece in his long legacy of failure.

Well, he did have a hand in her jail sentence.

 

[r1chard]

Well he isn't lying. Turnbull called a double dissolution on the pretext that a minority government wasn't letting him pass legislation, yet we are now in that exact same situation again. He's got egg all over his face and Shorten is eating it off with a big smile on his face, a well-deserved one at that.

Also he rolled Abbott because he was more popular and was going to win an election betterer (and no other reason, certainly not policy). Now that he didn't do that he has zero going for him in the party. It's hard to see how his political career is not dead.

 

[JC Sera]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=459x66E_vmo
watching this and it is so eerie how much of it is still relevant today about pauline hanson

 

[Elaugaufein]

Also he rolled Abbott because he was more popular and was going to win an election betterer (and no other reason, certainly not policy). Now that he didn't do that he has zero going for him in the party. It's hard to see how his political career is not dead.

TBF to Turnbull even this disaster is better than Abbott was polling at time he was rolled. Between the extra 8 months Abbott would have has to potentially dig deeper and that the Coalition has underperfomed the polls due to how the swing was distributed he probably did win betterer in the sense it wasn't a decisive loss. Also Abbott's awful numbers were against a Shorten who's entire strategy seemed to be keeping a low profile and was widely viewed as lacking anything resembling charisma or leadership ability , he's visibly improved on that over the course of the campaign.

 

[Aarglefarg]

Well, he did have a hand in her jail sentence.

I thought at the time that people were thinking of her as a more sympathetic character from going to prison and being strip searched or whatever. Then came Dancing With The Stars.

 

[Antiwhippy]

TBF to Turnbull even this disaster is better than Abbott was polling at time he was rolled. Between the extra 8 months Abbott would have has to potentially dig deeper and that the Coalition has underperfomed the polls due to how the swing was distributed he probably did win betterer in the sense it wasn't a decisive loss. Also Abbott's awful numbers were against a Shorten who's entire strategy seemed to be keeping a low profile and was widely viewed as lacking anything resembling charisma or leadership ability , he's visibly improved on that over the course of the campaign.

You could argue that he was forced to improve.

 

[hidys]

I predict Turnbull will form a minority government and will remain as Liberal leader for the full 3 years.

I really don't see any alternative to him as leader. Anybody else would see the party achieve disastrous results in 2019.

 

[JC Sera]

I thought at the time that people were thinking of her as a more sympathetic character from going to prison and being strip searched or whatever. Then came Dancing With The Stars.

relevant

 

[r1chard]

Yeah, but Turnbull's whole platform was "I'm more popular, I'll win an election better" as been soundly proven false, so he has no platform. He can't shape party policies, he has no other power in the party. All of this is entirely of his own making and he's gonna go.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I predict Turnbull will form a minority government and will remain as Liberal leader for the full 3 years.

I really don't see any alternative to him as leader. Anybody else would see the party achieve disastrous results in 2019.

Turnbull's problem here is that the Coalition, Liberal Party Room and their Media Support Engine (AM Radio , Bolt, Murdoch) are packed with people who think Abbott was doing great and would have swept to a decisive victory. They might well reinstate him based on that. I'm pretty sure Shorten has been feverishly hoping it happens since he saw the results start to come in.

 

[Antiwhippy]

Yeah, but Turnbull's whole platform was "I'm more popular, I'll win an election better" as been soundly proven false, so he has no platform. He can't shape party policies, he has no other power in the party. All of this is entirely of his own making and he's gonna go.

On the premise that he's more popular than tony fucking abbott, he's not wrong. Probably still is.

 

[Shandy]

He's got egg all over his face and Shorten is eating it off with a big smile on his face, a well-deserved one at that.

Turnbull called the DD simply because he couldn't negotiate with eight senatorial cross benchers. Now he has to negotiate with at least 13

Also he rolled Abbott because he was more popular and was going to win an election betterer (and no other reason, certainly not policy). Now that he didn't do that he has zero going for him in the party. It's hard to see how his political career is not dead.

Turnbull's whole platform was "I'm more popular, I'll win an election better" as been soundly proven false

I feel that, regardless of how things turn out, I'm right enough to say that Antony Green ain't got shit on me.

 

[Jintor]

god if the liberal response is to backstab turnbull and put abbott back in they're even stupider than man could even conceive of

 

[darkace]

If they put Abbott back in then I'm renouncing politics in this country forever. We can't have three parties dedicated to fundamentally unworkable economic ideals.

 

[Arksy]

god if the liberal response is to backstab turnbull and put abbott back in they're even stupider than man could even conceive of

You ain't seen nothing yet!

 

[hidys]

Turnbull's problem here is that the Coalition, Liberal Party Room and their Media Support Engine (AM Radio , Bolt, Murdoch) are packed with people who think Abbott was doing great and would have swept to a decisive victory. They might well reinstate him based on that. I'm pretty sure Shorten has been feverishly hoping it happens since he saw the results start to come in.

Oh the next years are going to be glorious.

But unless the Liberals reach a point where they really don't care about 2019 they won't change leaders.

And if they really do decide to change it'll probably be Scott Morrison.

EDIT: Also I don't know if anyone is looking at the electoral commission site but you probably shouldn't be. Antony Green believes they giving seats to Labor that they shouldn't be. He also says that the Coalition will end up with 73-76 seats which means that a minority Coalition government is likely.

 

[HowZatOZ]

I don't understand Green's basis there, its the AEC, they won't just give seats away like candy.

Honestly if Turnbull does get knifed it is going to mean a definite loss in 2019 to Liberal and maybe onwards from that election. No one outside of Turnbull and Bishop is actually likable enough to lead the liberal party, and certainly putting Abbott back in the spot won't at all help them despite the right-wing thinking its Jesus' second coming.

But I kind of do want Abbott to knife Turnbull, just for the hilarity.

 

[danm999]

Yeah the AEC seems like they're going to be super fucking careful about jumping the gun this time around since they stuffed up a bit last time. If they're giving Labor the seats I have to imagine they have reason to believe the results are solid since they know such a thing can impact negotiations going on presently.

 

[hidys]

I don't understand Green's basis there, its the AEC, they won't just give seats away like candy.

Honestly if Turnbull does get knifed it is going to mean a definite loss in 2019 to Liberal and maybe onwards from that election. No one outside of Turnbull and Bishop is actually likable enough to lead the liberal party, and certainly putting Abbott back in the spot won't at all help them despite the right-wing thinking its Jesus' second coming.

But I kind of do want Abbott to knife Turnbull, just for the hilarity.

Yeah the AEC seems like they're going to be super fucking careful about jumping the gun this time around since they stuffed up a bit last time. If they're giving Labor the seats I have to imagine they have reason to believe the results are solid since they know such a thing can impact negotiations going on presently.

When it comes to seat counting has Antony Green ever been wrong?

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

Liberals are gonna implode

 

[Marky Mark]

Some guy on mmm this morning in Adelaide came on under the premise of insider information about being a ballot worker and then out of nowhere started claiming that one nation votes were being thrown in the bin because they weren't favourable to the majors. That would've been OK of her was willing to go on some form of record before he started cheering Pauline Hanson as a voice for the silent majority and basically claiming some conspiracy theory against her and that thousands of every day Australians will be disadvantages because she won't have more seats as a result. The hosts didn't know what to say and it was really awkward. Also shoot me for listening to mmm.

On mobile apologies for grammar and formatting

 

[danm999]

Cory Bernardi going on 7:30 report to talk about Malcolm's leadership.

https://mobile.twitter.com/leighsales/status/749867865457602560

Hohohohohoho.

 

[hidys]

Apparently 7.30 tonight will have Albo and Bernardi. Looking forward to Albo putting to rest his leadership ambitions and Bernardi going hard on Turnbull.

 

[bobnowhere]

Apparently 7.30 tonight will have Albo and Bernardi. Looking forward to Albo putting to rest his leadership ambitions and Bernardi going hard on Turnbull.

The Albo leadership thing screams muckraking to me. First thing Sunday morning "Sky News" reports the challenge was on. What a load.

 

[Aarglefarg]

Oh the next years are going to be glorious.

But unless the Liberals reach a point where they really don't care about 2019 they won't change leaders.

And if they really do decide to change it'll probably be Scott Morrison.

EDIT: Also I don't know if anyone is looking at the electoral commission site but you probably shouldn't be. Antony Green believes they giving seats to Labor that they shouldn't be. He also says that the Coalition will end up with 73-76 seats which means that a minority Coalition government is likely.

Yeah, I saw this live on ABC News 24, I trust Antony Green about it. Disappointing AEC but they will get it right in the end of course.

 

[danm999]

When it comes to seat counting has Antony Green ever been wrong?

Don't think he has. Just guessing maybe the AEC would be more careful this time around.

 

[hidys]

The Albo leadership thing screams muckraking to me. First thing Sunday morning "Sky News" reports the challenge was on. What a load.

I certainly think if Labor had a disappointing result then Albo would be gunning for the job, but there is no way he could challenge after this result.

 

[Rubixcuba]

The Albo leadership thing screams muckraking to me. First thing Sunday morning "Sky News" reports the challenge was on. What a load.

I love Albo as much as everyone here, but there just isn't going to be a challenge. Shorten has taken us to the brink of leadership, and unified the party. Why change?

 

[bomma_man]

Not even Labor is that needlessly self destructive.

 

[Antiwhippy]

Which would people prefer though? Majority liberal for now paving the way for albo or minority liberal keeping shorten safe?

 

[hidys]

Which would people prefer though? Majority liberal for now paving the way for albo or minority liberal keeping shorten safe?

Keep in mind that a minority Liberal government offers excellent opportunities for Labor.

For example a Royal Commission into the banks is (I believe) supported by all of the crossbenches in the lower house. That's just one area where the Labor party could in a sense govern from opposition.

So definitely the later of the two.

 

[D.Lo]

The Albo leadership thing screams muckraking to me. First thing Sunday morning "Sky News" reports the challenge was on. What a load.

Yep, no way Albo will challenge right now. He cars more about getting stuff right than his own ambitions, he has proven it by fighting hard for Shorten.

It's a real shame, I would have preferred Turnbull was weakened but not this much, so Albo would have been the natural choice right now. Shorten has generally done very poorly for the last three years, he doesn't deserve to have been seen as successful now. And in fact isn't - Labor lost.

Turnbull's done badly but this election was also largely a repudiation of the LNP right. The mediscare campaign was only possible because of the GP Co-payment and related policies from Abbott and Hockey.

We so often end up with pretty crappy leaders because they are lucky enough be the one standing when the opposition falls - see Howard, Abbott.

 

[HowZatOZ]

I just don't see how AEC can be wrong, they are the ones counting and Green is just using predictions that can be wrong. I'll take those who are handling the counting than someone on the sidelines (I know his history but it still doesn't mean he's 100% right).

Also it would be utterly stupid of Labor to change leaders. They know it doesn't work and Shorten has lead them to this amazing election result. Sure it isn't yet known whether its a victory or not, but it definitely is a lot better than what the Liberal party is facing. Now that is a shit show if I've ever seen one.

 

[D.Lo]

I just don't see how AEC can be wrong, they are the ones counting and Green is just using predictions that can be wrong. I'll take those who are handling the counting than someone on the sidelines (I know his history but it still doesn't mean he's 100% right).

Green says the AEC is counting some seats that are not won but ahead by X number of votes for Labor too early, and that postals will most likely flip 3-4 of them.

Also it would be utterly stupid of Labor to change leaders. They know it doesn't work and Shorten has lead them to this amazing election result. Sure it isn't yet known whether its a victory or not, but it definitely is a lot better than what the Liberal party is facing. Now that is a shit show if I've ever seen one

No?

LNP will end up with maybe up to 7-9 seats more than Labor.

It's a better than expected result for Labor, but a clear loss, certainly not 'amazing'.

Libs are in a worse unity position than Labor, but not number of seats.

 

[HowZatOZ]

Green says the AEC is counting some seats that are not won but ahead by X number of votes for Labor too early, and that postals will most likely flip 3-4 of them.

No?

LNP will end up with maybe up to 7-9 seats more than Labor.

It's a better than expected result for Labor, but a clear loss, certainly not 'amazing'.

Libs are in a worse unity position than Labor, but not number of seats.

I don't see how its not a good position for Labor. We knew they weren't going to win this election but the comeback is pretty strong, and especially in the face of a government that pulled a double dissolution because of hung parliament that is right back at square one with even worse odds of passing laws.

I will say though that having a Liberal minority government could actually help us. Get the sensible legislation passed through with support from Labor in opposition but keep out the crazy legislation like GP co-payment or uni deregulation. Whatever the case, it is going to be an interesting three years.

 

[Bernbaum]

Fuck the hung parliament, Pauline Hanson back in Canberra is the real fucking disaster.

A complete embarrassment.

 

[DaMan121]

Green says the AEC is counting some seats that are not won but ahead by X number of votes for Labor too early, and that postals will most likely flip 3-4 of them.

No?

LNP will end up with maybe up to 7-9 seats more than Labor.

It's a better than expected result for Labor, but a clear loss, certainly not 'amazing'.

Libs are in a worse unity position than Labor, but not number of seats.

Lol, did you forget why we had an election?