Mr. Pointy
Member
Labor need to sneak in a free vote on SSM into some bill that the government won't pick up on. Shit would be high-larious.
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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened
- Thread starter Bernbaum
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Elaugaufein
Member
You can't sneak votes into legislation (because they are part of standing orders), only outcomes, so you could stick legislation to amend the Marriage Act anywhere you liked*, but you can't schedule a free vote on SSM without one of the following:
1) An absolute majority to overturn standing orders and schedule a vote..
2) A majority if you have scheduled you will attempt to overturn standing orders in the days business (if someone allows this they'd either be set on (probably metaphorical) fire and deserve it or have been told to let whatever it was pass, without needing to officially attach their votes)
*However sneaking such an amendment would be pointless, the House can reconvene and pass a disallowance/reversal motion since the Government still has an absolute majority.
Elaugaufein
Member
Fun is allowed, I just want to make sure that people don't get wrong information about AusPol from this thread.
bobnowhere
Member
I believe it was an amendment to a Government bill and in the end Labor agreed to help to have it removed as the Government would never have sent it to the Senate as is and the whole process would have to have been restarted wasting time. It was mostly just a procedural stuff-up and more 'unstable Government ' fodder for the press and insiders tomorrow.
Elaugaufein
Member
Its not unstable (on this, given the number of MPs who keep threatening to defect it's unstable in other ways) it's incompetent. An important distinction.
Candescence
Member
At the least, it's an incredibly amusing fuckup on the government's part.
Also, I regret even looking at the comments section of Gavin McInnes's (Rebel Media) video about Waleed Aly's editorial on Trump on The Project. Gavin's video itself is horrific and rife with ad hominem attacks (seriously, fuck that guy), but the comments are the worst I've seen on Youtube ever, and that's saying a lot. Ugh.
Also, I regret even looking at the comments section of Gavin McInnes's (Rebel Media) video about Waleed Aly's editorial on Trump on The Project. Gavin's video itself is horrific and rife with ad hominem attacks (seriously, fuck that guy), but the comments are the worst I've seen on Youtube ever, and that's saying a lot. Ugh.
bobnowhere
Member
I can't believe there hasn't been a single poll for the election tomorrow, not even The Canberra Times seems to give a crap. If the town wasn't coated in core-flute you wouldn't even know there was an election on.
What will happen? I have know idea. Potential outcomes in order (Lab/Lib/Grn/Ind):
Labor has 10 Green 1 and Liberal 11 right now. The 5th seat is up for grabs in 3 electorates.
What will happen? I have know idea. Potential outcomes in order (Lab/Lib/Grn/Ind):
- 11-12-2-0 Lab-Grn government
- 12-12-1-0 Lab-Grn Government
- 10-12-1-1 Probable Libs
- 10-13-1-0 Lib Government
Labor has 10 Green 1 and Liberal 11 right now. The 5th seat is up for grabs in 3 electorates.
- Murumbidgee: Most likely to go green for the 5th, Lib outside but need to win it for government.
- Ginninderra: Anyone could win the 5th. Most Labor area of Canberra so most likely but heaps of indies running there farming towards the libs.
- Yerrabi: 2nd best Lib area but is the focal point of the tram and they love the tram.
Elaugaufein
Member
ETA- Anything worth looking at in Vic Local Gov next week ?
The variance in number of Greens predicted is ridiculous (1-4 with the most likely being 3 is Antony Green's take) and is well above the margin of change in a PR system with five 5 member electorates.
To be fair the uncertainty is due to the new structure which the majors passed to try and kneecap the Greens (it seems to be something of a hobby in PR states when Labor gets nervous enough).
I'm surprised by the lack of polling given that it's close but I suspect that no one wants to risk reputation on prediction with the new electorates.
The variance in number of Greens predicted is ridiculous (1-4 with the most likely being 3 is Antony Green's take) and is well above the margin of change in a PR system with five 5 member electorates.
To be fair the uncertainty is due to the new structure which the majors passed to try and kneecap the Greens (it seems to be something of a hobby in PR states when Labor gets nervous enough).
I'm surprised by the lack of polling given that it's close but I suspect that no one wants to risk reputation on prediction with the new electorates.
Candescence
Member
Pauline Hanson is being sensible about the NBN...?! There's just something wrong about actually agreeing with her on something.
Though I'm not sure download speeds affect online gaming ping all that much. Yes, it helps, but you also need to take into account the speed of light through fibre, which is about 60% of the true speed of light in a vacuum. Even if fibre connections could move light at maximum possible speed, there is a maximum of half a second/500ms of latency from the client to the server, and technically a full second for a message for a full round trip.
Really, once we reach that speed limit, I imagine the only potential way to exceed it is essentially to use miniature portals as a means of reducing the actual distance the light travels. But now I'm kinda going off-topic, really.
Though I'm not sure download speeds affect online gaming ping all that much. Yes, it helps, but you also need to take into account the speed of light through fibre, which is about 60% of the true speed of light in a vacuum. Even if fibre connections could move light at maximum possible speed, there is a maximum of half a second/500ms of latency from the client to the server, and technically a full second for a message for a full round trip.
Really, once we reach that speed limit, I imagine the only potential way to exceed it is essentially to use miniature portals as a means of reducing the actual distance the light travels. But now I'm kinda going off-topic, really.
bobnowhere
Member
The Greens think they are going to win the 5th in each seat, no chance.
While the greens are popular in Canberra, their vote is very concentrated. The central seat, Kurrajong has both the greenest area of Canberra (The Lentil Belt where I live) the area north of the lake and the bluest area of Canberra, those suburbs south of the lake concentrated around New Parliament House. As you get further away from the centre suburbs Green support dries up.
It will take a big swing for the Libs to pick up 2 of the 5th places and overcome Labor+Green totals. It's not out of the question but I don't sense the bats are out for the Labor party. There is disappointment and probably the love has left the relationship but they should crawl across the line in coalition with the Greens.
Elaugaufein
Member
ETA - This discussion inspired me to check the electoral position of where I'm moving in December (Teneriffe in Brisbane). My Vote actually matters, that's creepy. Not going to elect a Green anywhere but Local Gov maybe but the LNP/ALP race is generally tight, though the sitting Federal LNP member is elefof the few who got a swing to in the last Fed election, I suspect a redistribution but I'll check.
ETA2 - Did some checking. There was a redistribution that favoured the LNP in 2010 that allowed Teressa Gambino to win in that landslide (the seats notionally weakly Labor (+2%) and the 2016 election swing is a little misleading (the Greens Vote was up more than Labor was down), the primary source of the LNP surge was acquiring nearly the entire PUP vote. Still given the sophomore surge this is likely a fairly safe LNP seat to the next distribution/retirement (will settle in around +6-8% , I think), still the weakest LNP fed seat I've ever been in (which is sad).
Ha, yes.
Though what the Greens say they expect while campaigning and what they actually expect are usually different (due to the way public funding and PR/AV works it's almost never a good idea to run dead if you can make the threshold for money, especially in the ACT now that the elimination of Group Tickets means they aren't going to bump the Libs of for the Senate any time soon, so they need that sweet sweet cash).
The distribution of the Greens Vote is nearly always awful everywhere. Probably a result of redistribution focussing on 2PP.
ETA2 - Did some checking. There was a redistribution that favoured the LNP in 2010 that allowed Teressa Gambino to win in that landslide (the seats notionally weakly Labor (+2%) and the 2016 election swing is a little misleading (the Greens Vote was up more than Labor was down), the primary source of the LNP surge was acquiring nearly the entire PUP vote. Still given the sophomore surge this is likely a fairly safe LNP seat to the next distribution/retirement (will settle in around +6-8% , I think), still the weakest LNP fed seat I've ever been in (which is sad).
Ha, yes.
Though what the Greens say they expect while campaigning and what they actually expect are usually different (due to the way public funding and PR/AV works it's almost never a good idea to run dead if you can make the threshold for money, especially in the ACT now that the elimination of Group Tickets means they aren't going to bump the Libs of for the Senate any time soon, so they need that sweet sweet cash).
The distribution of the Greens Vote is nearly always awful everywhere. Probably a result of redistribution focussing on 2PP.
Elaugaufein
Member
Very early results for ACT.
Libs seem to be doing well but it's swingy as hell (difference between prepoll inside and outside an electorate, evoting and on the day).
They don't seem to have done well enough to get a majority though so far.
So far it looks like it'll be the end of next week to get a final result.
ETA - Antony's Tech just rebelled. So that's normal.
Libs seem to be doing well but it's swingy as hell (difference between prepoll inside and outside an electorate, evoting and on the day).
They don't seem to have done well enough to get a majority though so far.
So far it looks like it'll be the end of next week to get a final result.
ETA - Antony's Tech just rebelled. So that's normal.
bobnowhere
Member
Will come down to Yerrabi and those albeit very early numbers are very good for Labor/Green. No independent is getting elected so the Libs will need to win a 3rd in Brindabella which they have, a 3rd in Murumbidge which is very possible and a 3rd in Yerrabi which is looking very very unlikely.
Tram time!!!!
Elaugaufein
Member
Labor jumped significantly as I was posting, yeah. The Libs have trended down as more votes come in, with one exception where Labor was briefly ahead 2 seats.
ETA:Signs Libs are probably doomed Business Chamber sucking up to Labor.
bobnowhere
Member
Antony Green just Mic dropped Zed Seselja, I though Zed might cry.
Didn't see a swing however small to Labor.
The business council have always been pretty fair here and while they were maybe neither here nor there on the Tram they were dead against ripping up the contract at a penalty of 250mil+ due to the massive sovereign risk element it puts on Canberra for the future.
Didn't see a swing however small to Labor.
The business council have always been pretty fair here and while they were maybe neither here nor there on the Tram they were dead against ripping up the contract at a penalty of 250mil+ due to the massive sovereign risk element it puts on Canberra for the future.
Elaugaufein
Member
It's interesting hearing Shane Rattenbury speak. He looked sort of nervous all night but he can actually speak really well.
ETA -
May yet get a Sex Party Member up in Brindabella as well. That would be hilarious.
ETA2 -
May yet get 2 Greens (Shane + Murrambidgee) and a Sex Party Member. I don't know who that would piss off the most.
ETA -
May yet get a Sex Party Member up in Brindabella as well. That would be hilarious.
ETA2 -
May yet get 2 Greens (Shane + Murrambidgee) and a Sex Party Member. I don't know who that would piss off the most.
bobnowhere
Member
Yeah, the vote is really starting to fall off in Brindabella for the Libs and even in Kurrajong.
Didn't predict this yesterday and I don't think anyone else did.
Didn't predict this yesterday and I don't think anyone else did.
Elaugaufein
Member
No, I don't think so either. This was supposed to be close. It's more of a ROFLstomp. Some of the media said Labor may only get 5 seats (those people are morons but that they could make the claim with anything approaching credibility says something).
ETA - Calling the Canberra Libs the most conservative is rather overstating it. I'm a Queenslander,,and frankly your conservatives are light weights. The most progressive LNP State Premier we had in decades was setting up a police state.
Kinda interesting reading up on the two parties policies in the ACT, their platforms are just about identical. The Canberra Liberal party are running a platform of 100% renewables by 2020 and funding for multicultural activities.
All you're really voting for at that point is how the government prioritises its relationship between business and labour. And the rhetoric.
All you're really voting for at that point is how the government prioritises its relationship between business and labour. And the rhetoric.
bobnowhere
Member
People say strange things when there is no polling. The last one I could find was from January and that suggested the status quo. I was phone polled during the Federal election but that was never published so I assume it was private, sounded like it was from Labor by the tone of the questions.
Yeah that's nonsense. The Canberra Libs would poll at about 3% if they were that conservative. They are well left of pretty much all other versions of the Liberal Party. The Libs ran a standard Labor campaign outside of the Tram promising massive health and education spending. While one of Labor's big policies is tax reform and the removal of Stamp Duty at the cost of rates increases, a very Liberal move.
Edit: Apparently Turnbull was speaking at an Urban Infrastructure conference last night and he praised the ACT light rail plan. Cold.
Elaugaufein
Member
Antony Green has been looking at preferences (comparing the ones from the initial release early in the evening to changes later).
Labor has 12 , Greens 2 , Lib 10 , with a fight between the Libs and Sex Party for the final seat (slightly favouring the Libs currently but for some bizarre reason the Sex Party seem to be doing better in booth voting than electronic so they might manage it yet) .
There's a lesson for the Canberra Libs there: if Labor comes to you with a redistribution that is bad for Minor Parties you should probably not pretend you have a fair chance of forming majority government, and actually try for a system where forming a coalition with say the Lib Dems is possible
Labor has 12 , Greens 2 , Lib 10 , with a fight between the Libs and Sex Party for the final seat (slightly favouring the Libs currently but for some bizarre reason the Sex Party seem to be doing better in booth voting than electronic so they might manage it yet) .
There's a lesson for the Canberra Libs there: if Labor comes to you with a redistribution that is bad for Minor Parties you should probably not pretend you have a fair chance of forming majority government, and actually try for a system where forming a coalition with say the Lib Dems is possible
bobnowhere
Member
It looks like the Sex Party must have run a pretty decent local campaign concentrating solely on the 2 southern electorates as being in the Central one, I had no idea they were even running!
Even when the Libs were in Power in the 90's at max they only had 7/17 of the seats and had to rely on friendly independent conservatives to form government. At the last election they managed 8 and it looks like 38-39% might be their high water mark. I think it would take massive maleficence on the behalf of the ALP or a very high profile and very moderate star leader to overcome the left wing nature of Canberra. One of the things that the Canberra Libs try very hard to hide is that while they are quite wet economically a lot of them are quite far right socially and that just doesn't play around here. The Likes of Coe, probable next leader and world class dribbler, Guilia Jones, Dozpot etc... are vehemently ant-SSM but it's really hard to get them to admit publicly to that.
It was clear that the Libs tried to create some friendly independents but instead of taking votes from Labor/Green and moving them to the indies it looks more like their own vote went to the indies and with vote exhaustion probably won't come back.
Even when the Libs were in Power in the 90's at max they only had 7/17 of the seats and had to rely on friendly independent conservatives to form government. At the last election they managed 8 and it looks like 38-39% might be their high water mark. I think it would take massive maleficence on the behalf of the ALP or a very high profile and very moderate star leader to overcome the left wing nature of Canberra. One of the things that the Canberra Libs try very hard to hide is that while they are quite wet economically a lot of them are quite far right socially and that just doesn't play around here. The Likes of Coe, probable next leader and world class dribbler, Guilia Jones, Dozpot etc... are vehemently ant-SSM but it's really hard to get them to admit publicly to that.
It was clear that the Libs tried to create some friendly independents but instead of taking votes from Labor/Green and moving them to the indies it looks more like their own vote went to the indies and with vote exhaustion probably won't come back.
Elaugaufein
Member
Independent conservatives don't really work with 5 member seats, since Hare-Clark means you need ~16.6% of the vote to not get frozen out and that's an epic performance for a new comer with OPV set at the size of a party's ticket.
The Greens ~10% of the vote is barely going to get them 2 seats when PR would suggest 2-3 and that's largely due to high concentration in 2 seats. This was of course part of the point and why the ALP did the distribution with the Libs. But anything bad for the Greens is murder on Independent/Minor conservatives in Canberra. It's likely to see the Sex Party off too for that matter. If the Libs need independent conservative they really need to try for a redistribution of something like 3 x 9/11 member seats (honestly they probably really need something more like 19 members seat(s) but that seems unrealistic given Hare-Clark's dependance on personal brand and Population size but 9 at least gives them a chance)
(Also lol at the ALA candidate running as an independent in Labor heartland, got beaten by informal votes and had an epic meltdown).
ETA- There's a small chance Labor could get the last seat in Brindabella and get 13 in their own right, which would make the chamber 15/10 left / right aka this distribution was a huge fuckup for the Libs.
bobnowhere
Member
Bob day is Quitting the Senate presumably to try and save his businesses.
Looks like Lucy Gighuhi will replace him as the 2nd Family First candidate.
Looks like Lucy Gighuhi will replace him as the 2nd Family First candidate.
Aarglefarg
Member
Is there any speculation on if this means any real change?
Dastardly Jerks
Banned
I guess he's off to put his.... family... first
bobnowhere
Member
I think he might be off to put his creditors first!
Hard to tell, FF can appoint anyone really Lucy was just his running mate. Their party really seems like a mish-mash of ideas with the only real commom element being religion. Day was very close to the LIbs, ex-perennial Lib candidate and an IPA member. The next person may not be as easy a win for the Coalition in the Senate.
Elaugaufein
Member
Current scuttlebut going around is it's going to be his staffer rather than his former running mate, that also greatly reduces the chance for any meaningful change (not that there was much chance for change from Family First, at best you'd have got someone who was just as appalling socially but maybe less so economically ).
Elaugaufein
Member
Oh if you've been hearing that One Nation support has soared since the Federal election, it hasn't (it's risen slightly) what has soared is the Australian's inability to make accurate comparisons (and by soared I mean remained similar to always at ~0%).
They are comparing House of Reps results at the election to current polling. One Nation didn't even run in many HoR seats.
Using their Senate vote (more accurate for a minor party) in Queensland they polled at 9.2% at the election and are now at 10%.
The Australian performed similar idiocy in other states , starting with One Nation at base results that wouldn't have resulted in them having Senators elected in NSW and WA.
The Australian does note the actual correct numbers in the last sentence of each paragraph, where people aren't paying attention.
The actual One Nation vote is up ~1 - 2% in each state. Not exactly a doubling or quadrupling .
They are comparing House of Reps results at the election to current polling. One Nation didn't even run in many HoR seats.
Using their Senate vote (more accurate for a minor party) in Queensland they polled at 9.2% at the election and are now at 10%.
The Australian performed similar idiocy in other states , starting with One Nation at base results that wouldn't have resulted in them having Senators elected in NSW and WA.
The Australian does note the actual correct numbers in the last sentence of each paragraph, where people aren't paying attention.
The actual One Nation vote is up ~1 - 2% in each state. Not exactly a doubling or quadrupling .
Elaugaufein
Member
The Australian big on doing PHON's press releases for them too now
Set for 10 Seat Haul in Queensland*
*By which we mean there are 10 Seats in which their are several booths where they got over 20% of the vote. Which of course doesn't actually translate to 10 Seats. getting 20% of the vote only helps you if you beat a party that's directing preferences to you. And the current distribution has 7 of those seats being LNP held: ie they are more likely to overtake Labor and then lose on ALP preferences to the LNP. Apparently a 10 Seat Haul actually means 5 seats if things go really well.
Set for 10 Seat Haul in Queensland*
*By which we mean there are 10 Seats in which their are several booths where they got over 20% of the vote. Which of course doesn't actually translate to 10 Seats. getting 20% of the vote only helps you if you beat a party that's directing preferences to you. And the current distribution has 7 of those seats being LNP held: ie they are more likely to overtake Labor and then lose on ALP preferences to the LNP. Apparently a 10 Seat Haul actually means 5 seats if things go really well.
bobnowhere
Member
David Leyonhjelm has a serious case of Hurt feelings going on at the moment.
Looks like before the last election they banned the Adler lever action shotgun, a gun that is solely designed to evade Australia's gun laws, and told Leyonhjelm that there would be a 1 year sunset clause on the ban. Now the government are all like sorry you believed us sucker? We though you wouldn't get reelected.
Now the government are trying to get him back on the table by making noise the Adler might be made legal if he votes for the ABCC and even Abbott is unhappy about it. Abbott is totally remaining firm to his beliefs and not at all sniping, undermining or destablising!
Edit: Latest Essential is pretty brutal reading for the government not just it's current standing, 53/47 to Labor, in the electorate but it's also it's program for the future.
Looks like before the last election they banned the Adler lever action shotgun, a gun that is solely designed to evade Australia's gun laws, and told Leyonhjelm that there would be a 1 year sunset clause on the ban. Now the government are all like sorry you believed us sucker? We though you wouldn't get reelected.
Now the government are trying to get him back on the table by making noise the Adler might be made legal if he votes for the ABCC and even Abbott is unhappy about it. Abbott is totally remaining firm to his beliefs and not at all sniping, undermining or destablising!
Edit: Latest Essential is pretty brutal reading for the government not just it's current standing, 53/47 to Labor, in the electorate but it's also it's program for the future.
bobnowhere
Member
And today the 3 defence ministers can't seem to work out who is responsible for what and who outranks who.
Edit: Now Cullerton, the crazy criminal ONP guy from WA wants the Adler Shotgun in exchange for the ABCC. It's all coming up Milhouse for Malcolm 'DD' Turnbull! There is no way in a million years he can walk back the ban without completely destroying his PM'ship.
Candescence
Member
The government is digging itself deeper with the lever action shotgun ban. While Turnbull reasonably noted that his government never made a commitment to repealing the ban in exchange for Leyonhjelm's vote, Abbot tried making the same claim... Except Leyonhjelm produced evidence of an agreement with the Abbot Government. Whoops.
Malcom should've nipped this issue in the bud the moment it came up. Instead, he dithered, and it landed him in hot water.
Malcom should've nipped this issue in the bud the moment it came up. Instead, he dithered, and it landed him in hot water.
Elaugaufein
Member
Nationals and PHON voters don't necessarily agree though. This is one of those things where Howard actually took a political hut to do what he thought he was right.
Elaugaufein
Member
Just FTR Abetz does that every year without fail. Despite an endless parade of carefully stacked enquiries failong to find bias. I'm pretty sure Abetz considers anything to the left of Andrew Bolt as Communism. Even the right wing Heads, that the Coalition arrange by stacking the Board with people still working for Murodch, tell him he's wrong (which he and the Murodch Press inevitably rack up as them going native*)
* If that actually happens I recommend appointing Bolt ASAP.
Indeed, and that's one of the few things Howard should be commended for.
In other news, MiniTruth Dutton has described ABC 4 Corners report as doubleplusungood.
Elaugaufein
Member
Plebiscite just passed the House. Off to be put out of its misery by the Senate. Actually given the numbers there's an excellent chance it comes back to the House as calling for a free vote (an amendment Shorten tried but failed to get through in the House) , the pro-SSM free vote block in the Senate is enough to amend legislation to anything they want* and pass it back to the House.
*Personally I'm hoping for a motion that the ACL sit and spin.
*Personally I'm hoping for a motion that the ACL sit and spin.
bobnowhere
Member
So apparently Turnbull threw Abbott under a bus in QT by backing his ministers, Keenan and Dutton's version of the deal with Leyonhjelm. So Abbott stood up after QT and threw Turnbull back under the same bus presenting evidence of his version of events.
Good times.
Good times.
This has all the hallmarks of a challenge in twelve months. Really seems like the cracks behind the wallpaper are starting to appear all over again.
I honestly can't imagine this going to full term either. Even Albanese is starting to chirp again so who knows, maybe he will be the next labor pm.
CrazedProfessional
Member
Shorten should be PM, the problem is polls still have no idea who the fuck he is.
PPM sitting at 28 percent last I checked.
Means people are still willing to listen to Turnbull, but not listen to the larger LNP.
PPM sitting at 28 percent last I checked.
Means people are still willing to listen to Turnbull, but not listen to the larger LNP.
Elaugaufein
Member
I don't see any path by which Albanese can be the next Labor PM, short of Shorten losing the next election or suddenly dieing / retiring from politics / disappearing. Knifing him is to likely to undermine the current lead, Shorten isn't epically unpopular like Abbott was.
Candescence
Member
Dutton is also screaming his head off about Four Corners, accusing the ABC of being on a crusade against the government's border protection policy.
Once again, the Coalition is a complete fucking shambles.
Once again, the Coalition is a complete fucking shambles.
D.Lo
Member
He could do it on the basis of 'We need to win and I can inspire and cut through much better' which I think is pretty much objectively true. Shorten is a damp squib who just happens to have been in while the Libs implode, he's a mild negative for Labor but that's still a negative.
The problem is that Albo isn't enough of a prick to destabilise short term for long term gain for the party.
Pure speculation here, but if the ALP polling isnt substantially higher than the Christensen's Rightwing Australia Party (CRAP) bu mid-late 2018 I wouldn't be surprised if they switched leaders.
The way they do it though is what will be different. It wont be knives out, it will be a silent step down after bickering behind closed doors, with the appearance of a personal decision. It's not about Shorten or any other potential leader - it's because of Rudd's rules that the ALP has a mechanism in place now to keep internal leadership fites out of the public eye. If they want to.
The way they do it though is what will be different. It wont be knives out, it will be a silent step down after bickering behind closed doors, with the appearance of a personal decision. It's not about Shorten or any other potential leader - it's because of Rudd's rules that the ALP has a mechanism in place now to keep internal leadership fites out of the public eye. If they want to.
Elaugaufein
Member
They are already like 53-47 2PP and PHON is mildly worse for the Coalition than the Greens for Labor in the electoral sense because the overlap of Nat / PHON support is higher than Labor / Green and the Nats reliance on natural gerrymander seats (large conservative rural areas it's completely impractical for the AEC to make close) which means PHON is equally concentrated and thus capable of winning seats (unlike the Green vote which is still too diffuse to win anything but a handful of inner city and coastal seats in the next decade). It would be hard for a United and Disciplined government with bags of cash for middle class welfare to overcome the current situation and the Coalition is none of that at the moment.
As far as I can tell Labor also has a mild Senatorial advantage too both in terms of fairly safe Greens support and largely easier negotiations with NXT.
Basically if Labor doesn't continue to poll winning numbers until the next election it will be a serious indictment of Shorten.
Elaugaufein
Member
Turnbull could prove them wrong. I could also become an anarcho-capitlist.
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