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[jellies_two]

To be fair his donation doesn't seem to have bought him any influence even inside the Liberal Party

He filled out the investor risk appetite questionnaire to get the "high risk high return" choices unlocked, and promptly lost his shirt. I think he is better at banking than people. Hmm, sounds a bit like Baird.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Oh, its official. Cullerton was never validly elected so its back to a recount which means its One Nation Nut Number 2 (aka his Brother in Law). The interesting thing here is that Hanson and Cullerton seem to have vastly different opinions on how this is going to go, Cullerton thinks he'll back as the BiL's Chief of Staff, Hanson thinks the BiL will be a Senator Upgrade (aka actually tow the line).

 

[Candescence]

So now a bunch of Lib moderates are planning to try and force the party into a free vote on SMM, to remove it from the agenda once and for all. The right-wingers are naturally mortified, of course, partly because they're now terrified of Pauline Hanson's Bigot Brigade, and they're trying to argue that changing policy is a bad idea because 1) "we took the plebiscite to the election and won, therefore a free vote would be a broken promise!" (except a bare minimum majority is not a mandate nor a sign of approval, and it's a bit late to complain about broken promises when you've already broken about a billion of them since 2013) and 2) "the plebiscite is part of this term Coalition agreement, breaking it essentially betraying the Nats and will destroy the government".

Nice to see the moderates finally getting some backbone and putting their foot down.

 

[Elaugaufein]

So now a bunch of Lib moderates are planning to try and force the party into a free vote on SMM, to remove it from the agenda once and for all. The right-wingers are naturally mortified, of course, partly because they're now terrified of Pauline Hanson's Bigot Brigade, and they're trying to argue that changing policy is a bad idea because 1) "we took the plebiscite to the election and won, therefore a free vote would be a broken promise!" (except a bare minimum majority is not a mandate nor a sign of approval, and it's a bit late to complain about broken promises when you've already broken about a billion of them since 2013) and 2) "the plebiscite is part of this term Coalition agreement, breaking it essentially betraying the Nats and will destroy the government".

Nice to see the moderates finally getting some backbone and putting their foot down.

I suspect its let backbone and more personal survival and some political nous. Doing what the right wing has said has basically tanked their poll ratings and they are smart enough to realize that a) they can't out-One Nation One Nation, it'll just move right in response and b) it'd be a stupid idea for many of them anyway, the capital cities (which are a fair chunk of the federal lower house and the population in the Senate) put the boot in, last time they tried that (they lost more city seats to Labor, than they and One Nation combined took from it in the less urban areas).

 

[bobnowhere]

Malcolm Trumble made it to SNL overnight, got his hair and mannerisms spot on!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95z3NpmJdhI

 

[bobnowhere]

Newspoll 54/46 to Labor. Looks like all the bleed went to ONP. Now the moderates are talking about SSM again, the RWNJs are going to explode, again. Big Trumble in little Canberra.

Also, ONP tried to include a clause for candidates that if they leave the party after being elected they owed the party $250k. Legal advice said it was nonsense.

 

[TheWasTheJoke]

Barnett proposed mandatory sentencing for Meth dealing and raising the max sentence to Life. Sad to see labour instantly default and accept such a harmful and idiotic policy.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Barnett proposed mandatory sentencing for Meth dealing and raising the max sentence to Life. Sad to see labour instantly default and accept such a harmful and idiotic policy.

Tough on crime is popular even if the proposed toughness is idiocy that will lead to higher crime.

 

[Candescence]

And apparently Andrew Bolt is saying Bernadi is gonna be splitting from the Libs quite soon and starting his own Conservative Party, bankrolled by Gina. I want to see him do it, partly because it'll make the government's situation in the senate even worse, it'll destroy the government's majority immediately if at least two MPs follow him, it'll tear the government to shreds, and Bernadi is going to get an incredible reality check at the next election.

Also, Newspoll is falling in line with recent other polls at 46/54 2PP towards Labor, and the government's federal primary vote has collapsed (L/NP 35 (-4) ALP 36 (0) GRN 10 (0) ON 8) to levels not seen since Abbott's worst days. And this is the period when people are normally ignoring politics.

 

[Elaugaufein]

And apparently Andrew Bolt is saying Bernadi is gonna be splitting from the Libs quite soon and starting his own Conservative Party, bankrolled by Gina. I want to see him do it, partly because it'll make the government's situation in the senate even worse, it'll destroy the government's majority immediately if at least two MPs follow him, it'll tear the government to shreds, and Bernadi is going to get an incredible reality check at the next election.

Also, Newspoll is falling in line with recent other polls at 46/54 2PP towards Labor, and the government's federal primary vote has collapsed (L/NP 35 (-4) ALP 36 (0) GRN 10 (0) ON 8) to levels not seen since Abbott's worst days. And this is the period when people are normally ignoring politics.

Their Primary vote is kind of meaningless for the same reason Labor's was 12 months ago: we have a preference system and there's another party occupying a section of the spectrum closer to them then their opponent, the primary will only matter when PHON approaches it.

Its the 2PP that is the stuff of nightmares for them.

 

[danm999]

More outlets reporting Bernardi is going to leave the LNP.

Gonna be interesting if he takes anyone from the House with him.

 

[Shaneus]

More outlets reporting Bernardi is going to leave the LNP.

Gonna be interesting if he takes anyone from the House with him.

What does that mean for their majority, given it was so slim?

 

[danm999]

What does that mean for their majority, given it was so slim?

I guess they're down to 29 seats if only he defects in the Senate.

Fairfax is saying he won't block supply but the government was already in a pretty tough position getting anything passed.

As for the House who knows. I'd imagine he'd want a deal similar to what the Nats have?

 

[Quasar]

More outlets reporting Bernardi is going to leave the LNP.

Gonna be interesting if he takes anyone from the House with him.

Fingers crossed. Would be nice to see the likes of Christensen and Abetz go with him.

 

[Candescence]

Even the ABC is reporting the news.

thisgonbegud.jpg

 

[bobnowhere]

Christensen says he has nothing to do with it but still threatened Turnbull in the process.

I think Bernardi is severely overestimating his own popularity.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Christensen says he has nothing to do with it but still threatened Turnbull in the process.

I think Bernardi is severely overestimating his own popularity.

This might have been doable with a little luck (for Bernardi) if PHON / Family First didn't currently have such high profiles but since they do this is pretty stupid.

 

[danm999]

Yeah unless he joins PHON it's difficult to see what voter Bernardi will be servicing here.

Also means he'd have to spend a bunch of time distinguishing himself as the true face of conservatism which just means more infighting on the right.

 

[bobnowhere]

With the loss of Bob Day and also being from SA, there's a good chance he'll hoover up a lot of the local Family First Support but apart from that, you're right, it's a little too late for him.

PHON will likely win one or two lower house seats in WA and due to the upperhouse gerrymander might even hold the balance of power in the Legislative Council. They are a big chance in QLD and pretty much everywhere the Nats have used and abused their seats.

There is some speculation that this is all a ruse to drive PHON preferences to the Libs through him as an intermediary but I'm not sure PHON voters are that easy to wrangle. They broke 50/50 at the last election and usually prefference against the incumbent.

The numbers also suggest Lambie is a dead political force, hardly surprising with Pauline on the floor and Xenophon might have lost some ground and has no influence outside of SA.

 

[Elaugaufein]

With the loss of Bob Day and also being from SA, there's a good chance he'll hoover up a lot of the local Family First Support but apart from that, you're right, it's a little too late for him.

PHON will likely win one or two lower house seats in WA and due to the upperhouse gerrymander might even hold the balance of power in the Legislative Council. They are a big chance in QLD and pretty much everywhere the Nats have used and abused their seats.

There is some speculation that this is all a ruse to drive PHON preferences to the Libs through him as an intermediary but I'm not sure PHON voters are that easy to wrangle. They broke 50/50 at the last election and usually prefference against the incumbent.

The numbers also suggest Lambie is a dead political force, hardly surprising with Pauline on the floor and Xenophon might have lost some ground and has no influence outside of SA.

They don't poll* NXT or JLN outside of state level in SA / TAS respectively because their support is tiny on a national level (due to their small populations). But Jacquie's not up for re-election so JLN won't do squat at a standard Senate election.

Xenophon is pretty clearly having problems walking the tight rope while having a distinct identity, especially with Hinch around who's sucking up the wild card centrist oxygen with his higher level stunts (Xenophon's never deliberately used parliamentary privilege to escape contempt of court) and the media loving him as one of their own.

(*They only ask you which of the "big" parties you'd vote for then maybe drill down if you say other. Which tends to overpoll the big ones).

I'm also not sure if Bernardi will benefit much from FF , their vote comes from tight intervote flows between the "Christian minor parties" and I dunno if they'll view Bernardi as one of their own enough or if he'll get enough primary on his own to not get Katamari'd (Day only managed it due to his high profile and the DD).

 

[jellies_two]

"The trumpification iof the conservatice right"
Good article in smh

Disturbing comments though it's amazing how many agents Putin has putting in he work, strong leader, blah blah
It's like a dirty small cracked mirror of the_donald of a month ago.

 

[Elaugaufein]

"The trumpification iof the conservatice right"
Good article in smh

Disturbing comments though it's amazing how many agents Putin has putting in he work, strong leader, blah blah
It's like a dirty small cracked mirror of the_donald of a month ago.

I think imagining that all support for Trump and Trump-alikes is coming from agents is wishful thinking. They aren't supposed to be one person comment sections, there purpose is to agitate and direct, ie stir up people likely to have that sort of response with links and such. If you go visit small rural towns in Queensland and NSW particularly as you get away from the east coast, that sort of feeling becomes more and more popular.

 

[jellies_two]

I think imagining that all support for Trump and Trump-alikes is coming from agents is wishful thinking. They aren't supposed to be one person comment sections, there purpose is to agitate and direct, ie stir up people likely to have that sort of response with links and such. If you go visit small rural towns in Queensland and NSW particularly as you get away from the east coast, that sort of feeling becomes more and more popular.

Agreed
But I suspect the framing of the message is directed by some people who may not be entirely unpaid.. they seed the best lines, and they get regurgitated verbatim there isn't much variation it's always the same simple message.

 

[TheWasTheJoke]

Holy fuck QA is impossibly idiotic, I'm tearing my hair out, it's painful.

Why are both Daisy Cousens and Helen Andrews on the panel? Especially the former, being a part of a 'research centre' doesnt make you qualified.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Holy fuck QA is impossibly idiotic, I'm tearing my hair out, it's painful.

Why are both Daisy Cousens and Helen Andrews on the panel? Especially the former, being a part of a 'research centre' doesnt make you qualified.

Helen Andrews actually just put down a pretty excellent analysis of Bernardi especially since it wasn't pro-Trump.

 

[Elaugaufein]

That was bizarre. Taking shots at Labor's energy policy on prices and then wanting public ownership of energy utilities. PHON supporter ?

 

[bobnowhere]

If Cory turns up tomorrow with his MAGA hat on you'll know he's completely disappeared up his own arse.

 

[Elaugaufein]

If Cory turns up tomorrow with his MAGA hat on you'll know he's completely disappeared up his own arse.

I knew that shortly after Turnbull knifed Abbott. Or do you mean that this isn't even his final form ?

 

[Elaugaufein]

Bernadi followed through. Well I'll be. So how many Nats / Abbotistas do you think he'll be able to recruit away from the Coalition ?

 

[Quasar]

Bernadi followed through. Well I'll be. So how many Nats / Abbotistas do you think he'll be able to recruit away from the Coalition ?

I half expect there to be none given how its played out. I kind of expected him to have a wingman with the new party.

 

[danm999]

Bernadi followed through. Well I'll be. So how many Nats / Abbotistas do you think he'll be able to recruit away from the Coalition ?

Zero.

 

[Quasar]

Zero.

Which disappoints me greatly. I had hoped for Christensen at least.

 

[danm999]

Which disappoints me greatly. I had hoped for Christensen at least.

Yeah it'd be great, but I think even Georgy Boy understands how futile Cory's actions are.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Which disappoints me greatly. I had hoped for Christensen at least.

I'm pretty sure Turnbull's fever dreams included that happening and like 3 of the more economically conservative Labor members defecting to the LNP.

 

[bobnowhere]

There's probably a few fence sitters that will snipe from the backbench but are waiting to see if Bernardi sinks or swims first. Haven't seen what he said in the Senate but I suppose it will come down to whether it's all just a vanity project for Cory or a genuine attempt backed by Gina Rineheart to make a 3rd or maybe 4th or 5th or even 6th force.

There is only a certain amount of Media coverage out there, the Government and the opposition get a say and then usually the loudest of the rest so Cory has going to make a hell of an effort to out yell/crazy ONP. I suspect he'll slowly sink without trace.

Though I don't for a second believe Cory hasn't been planning this for years.

 

[legend166]

I don't know whether to respect him for going his own way when it was clear (he believed) the party's values no longer lined up with his own (whatever you think of those values), or laugh at his ego that he thinks he can form his own party and have it be a force.

I mean, it does take balls to give up what is basically a guaranteed Senate position for as long as he wanted it. Or delusion. Balls or delusion.

 

[Elaugaufein]

There's probably a few fence sitters that will snipe from the backbench but are waiting to see if Bernardi sinks or swims first. Haven't seen what he said in the Senate but I suppose it will come down to whether it's all just a vanity project for Cory or a genuine attempt backed by Gina Rineheart to make a 3rd or maybe 4th or 5th or even 6th force.

There is only a certain amount of Media coverage out there, the Government and the opposition get a say and then usually the loudest of the rest so Cory has going to make a hell of an effort to out yell/crazy ONP. I suspect he'll slowly sink without trace.

Though I don't for a second believe Cory hasn't been planning this for years.

Yeah, but I don't know how much of a it was "Serious" and how much of it was "Leverage'.

Given that he didn't have a good enough reading of the situation to jump during the PUP / PHON waves* when he might have gotten some oxygen and vacuumed up some of their supporters, I suspect it was largely intended as leverage until he convinced himself this was a thing that people wanted.

*And he really really should have tried for the Palmer wave frankly. Bernadi's economics means Xenophon will likely take him to the cleaners roughly 3 times a day in South Australia now that he's established. Bernadi's the kind of conservative who was in vague from the early 80s through to mid 90s in the UK / US and who have never done well in Australia (Howard's Bane (aka Work Choices) would be right up Bernadi's alley). He's either got to pick up the entire Family First vote (unlikely without Day's influence the party is likely to be a lot less economically dry and a lot of the voters are there for the morality not the economics) or move state and I don't really see anywhere where his policies would be particularly appealing.

 

[danm999]

I dunno between One Nation and Family First and Jacqui Lambie and David Leyonhelm and Derryn Hinch it seems awfully difficult to me to stand out in the Senate as a right wing populist.

Even running as a party focused on local issues in South Australia would be difficult for Bernardi, that's sort of Xenophon's thing.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I dunno between One Nation and Family First and Jacqui Lambie and David Leyonhelm and Derryn Hinch it seems awfully difficult to me to stand out in the Senate as a right wing populist.

Even running as a party focused on local issues in South Australia would be difficult for Bernardi, that's sort of Xenophon's thing.

Bernadi's not a populist though. He's an economic dry. Which just makes this even weirder. There's literally no indication at all that anyone is looking for a hyper conservative (Social + Economic) outlet.

Nor are Hinch or Family First right-wing populists though for different reasons. Family First isn't populist (at least at the moment, it could certainly make a go of it in the Catholic tradition though, now that Day's losing influence) and Hinch is all over the place on a wide variety of issues (he's not really what you'd call consistently left, right or center) but he certainly is a populist.

Jacquie Lambie is sort of though, using traditional values social conservatism and leftist economics.

One Nation absolutely is.

Xenophon is basically the living avatar of Centrist populism and he's damn good at it,.

 

[danm999]

Bernadi's not a populist though. He's an economic dry. Which just makes this even weirder. There's literally no indication at all that anyone is looking for a hyper conservative (Social + Economic) outlet.

Agreed. Xenophon has already called him out as a big business, pro free-trade stooge so all his talk of representing things as an outsider is just to flat effect.

I guess he's just going to bash Muslims and gays but even Trump pulled his punches with the latter group.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Agreed. Xenophon has already called him out as a big business, pro free-trade stooge so all his talk of representing things as an outsider is just to flat effect.

I guess he's just going to bash Muslims and gays but even Trump pulled his punches with the latter group.

Yes, and you'd be even more wise to do so in Australia. Gay rights are considerably less controversial here than the US in terms of public opinion, the Libs as a group are more in favour of marriage equality than US Republicans, you can even find LNP (from what were Nat Seats) / Nationals who aren't opposed. But Cory can't help himself.

 

[bomma_man]

Cory is Ted Cruz, and not even the Republican base like him that much, and they're fucking crazy.

 

[bobnowhere]

Cory is Ted Cruz, and not even the Republican base like him that much, and they're fucking crazy.

Cory's Dad killed Harold Holt. It's all clear now.

 

[Quasar]

Bernadi's not a populist though. He's an economic dry. Which just makes this even weirder. There's literally no indication at all that anyone is looking for a hyper conservative (Social + Economic) outlet.

Though frankly, its not economics when I think of Cory its his outspoken social conservatism that I think of. Maybe thats due to me not living in SA or not paying attention to his blatherings very much.

Which of course if he's leaving alone its kind of weird that he didn't just join up with an existing group like ON or FF. Except the talk that he does not play well with others.

I guess given his Trump fanboyism I would have expected him to be anti free trade. Or a least anti TPP.

 

[bomma_man]

He has no idea why trump was popular, except for the racism.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Though frankly, its not economics when I think of Cory its his outspoken social conservatism that I think of. Maybe thats due to me not living in SA or not paying attention to his blatherings very much.

Which of course if he's leaving alone its kind of weird that he didn't just join up with an existing group like ON or FF. Except the talk that he does not play well with others.

I guess given his Trump fanboyism I would have expected him to be anti free trade. Or a least anti TPP.

ON is going for the Trump style nationalism / protectionist thing which isn't Cory's thing.

FF may have been an option when Day was riding high, but his absence means the party is having an internal war between the original Social Conservative Christians and the dust dry economics ( that Day demanded for his cash and the like-minded Liberal defectors) , so Cory is probably unwelcome (also frankly FF seems a lot less xenophobic than Bernardi would prefer)

No one else has much chance in SA for him to join (if he thinks the Libs are too left he ain't going near NXT).

 

[bomma_man]

PH's opposition to child care payments amounts to nothing more than fuck you got mine.

"It is a lot of money to be handing out... when I was rearing my children we got $8 per week".

Because it was shit for you it has to be shit for everyone else. This attitude infruriates me, not just because it's stupid, but because it's so remarkably self centered - apparently the world began with Pauline and everything else should be measured against her experiences. I imagine that her great grandmother from the 19th century would find $8 a week remarkably indulgent but nope, When I Had A Child is Year Zero.

 

[Quasar]

PH's opposition to child care payments amounts to nothing more than fuck you got mine.

"It is a lot of money to be handing out... when I was rearing my children we got $8 per week".

Because it was shit for you it has to be shit for everyone else. This attitude infruriates me, not just because it's stupid, but because it's so remarkably self centered - apparently the world began with Pauline and everything else should be measured against her experiences. I imagine that her great grandmother from the 19th century would find $8 a week remarkably indulgent but nope, When I Had A Child is Year Zero.

Surprised she doesn't talk about bootstraps.

 

[Elaugaufein]

PH's opposition to child care payments amounts to nothing more than fuck you got mine.

"It is a lot of money to be handing out... when I was rearing my children we got $8 per week".

Because it was shit for you it has to be shit for everyone else. This attitude infruriates me, not just because it's stupid, but because it's so remarkably self centered - apparently the world began with Pauline and everything else should be measured against her experiences. I imagine that her great grandmother from the 19th century would find $8 a week remarkably indulgent but nope, When I Had A Child is Year Zero.

Or "Inflation, How does it work ?"

 

[danm999]

Unsurprising Hanson has a retrograde view here. She wants to abolish the Family Court and thinks women make frivolous domestic violence allegations because their partners criticise the colour of their dress.

A true loon.