I'm going to make a call that if Dutton becomes PM, the party will fracture. There are too many on my side of the party that won't stand for a megalomaniac racist autocrat former cop that doesn't know what the word 'constitution' means. I'm not even joking here...there's a likelihood that if Dutton becomes party leader or PM, some MPs might even defect to the ALP giving Shorten the numbers. :/
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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened
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I'm going to make a call that if Dutton becomes PM, the party will fracture. There are too many on my side of the party that won't stand for a megalomaniac racist autocrat former cop that doesn't know what the word 'constitution' means. I'm not even joking here...there's a likelihood that if Dutton becomes party leader or PM, some MPs might even defect to the ALP giving Shorten the numbers. :/
Elaugaufein
Member
This is going to seem weird but I've never heard Dutton described as megalomaniac before, so it jumped out at me, is that just your personal take or something that's been going around ?
Elaugaufein
Member
Sure, but generally speaking you want someone who isn't going to lead your party to an electoral bloodbath. Abbott was genuinely good at being Opposition Leader, he led them back into Government , he just turned out be genuinely bad at being Prime Minister.
TheWasTheJoke
Member
I wouldn't mind ScoMo replacing Turnbull but only due to very esoteric reasons
Elaugaufein
Member
You want the Coalition to be internally fragmented AND electorally unpopular ?
bobnowhere
Member
Sounds like a plan!
It has to be someone from the "conservative" wing at this point. The RWNJs have shown they would rather destroy the joint than play nice with the moderates so another moderate like ScoMo or JBish would just delay this problem for about say 2 days.
Dutton wants the job as demonstrated by the deliberate attempt to raise his profile. Abbott also wants the job DESPERATELY but has been judged as a joke by the electorate and never had the personal popularity of Rudd. Frydenberg needs more responsibilty as he hasn't proved himself as anything but a middling tennis player at this point and no one knows who Porter is... yet.
My prediction, Turnbull to get rolled at some point by Dutton and Dutton will lead the the party to a disastrous defeat and quickly enter the history books as the worst leader in the history of the universe and just a mistake all round. Porter will then take over and prove to be quite a formidable opposition leader and may even roll Shorten after one term.
...and round and round the merry-go-round goes with not a lot done.
D.Lo
Member
I would never have believed it were possible to have a worse PM than Abbott in modern times. Abbott got in on a weird quirk of history, due to Labor self-destructing in a cascade of idiocy. Heck if Rudd had been back in with more time before an election I think he would have scraped a win and Abbott would never have happened.
Someone like Dutton though, that just doesn't seem like it should be plausible.
Elaugaufein
Member
Thanks Trump.
The liberal wing won't allow Dutton, and some of the conservative side wouldn't either. I too wonder at what might have happened with Rudd at the helm, as much as I can't stand the ALP, I can't help but think that if you were to present what he would have done to an opposition MP but remove any mention of him or his party, and ask him if they agreed, broadly or not with the policies enacted, that they would be somewhat amenable to his agenda.
Edit: Anything Roxon or Gillard did notwithstanding.
Edit: Anything Roxon or Gillard did notwithstanding.
Elaugaufein
Member
That's an interesting point, the liberal wing have the numbers in the Lib party room for now but not the combined room but that doesn't matter for Lib Leader unless the Nats threaten to walk unless Dutton is put in.
But I can't see that happening, they have too much to gain having Turnbull by the short and curlies compared to having Dutton with a united party room and a non-zero chance of busing them for One Nation.
But I can't see that happening, they have too much to gain having Turnbull by the short and curlies compared to having Dutton with a united party room and a non-zero chance of busing them for One Nation.
Elaugaufein
Member
Cullerton's Brother In Law has pretty much been confirmed as his replacement now, so that's one missing Senator down (as expected, once it was confirmed he was ineligible to run this was really the only possible outcome).
Just the Bob Day / FF vacancy to resolve now. Have they actually decided if Day was eligible to run ?
Just the Bob Day / FF vacancy to resolve now. Have they actually decided if Day was eligible to run ?
I refuse to believe the Dutton rumours are anything but rumours.
I mean fuck the conservative wing of the Coalition doesn't exactly have their finger on the pulse of the national mood but even they must realize what a disaster Dutton would be.
I mean he fucked up a Stop and Frisk initiative in Melbourne and then pretended to be sick for several days.
I mean he can't figure out a hot mic.
I mean he can't calling someone a journalist mad fucking witch without accidental texting it to her.
It'd certainly be new grounds for the term failing upwards.
I mean fuck the conservative wing of the Coalition doesn't exactly have their finger on the pulse of the national mood but even they must realize what a disaster Dutton would be.
I mean he fucked up a Stop and Frisk initiative in Melbourne and then pretended to be sick for several days.
I mean he can't figure out a hot mic.
I mean he can't calling someone a journalist mad fucking witch without accidental texting it to her.
It'd certainly be new grounds for the term failing upwards.
Elaugaufein
Member
The sad truth is they have no real options. None of the moderates want to be the next Turnbull, Abbott is a proven loser (and accidentally overstepped the line on what he could get away with judging by Cormann giving it to him), Morrison is tainted by 'betraying' Abbott (and his less than impressive performance as Treasurer). Dutton is pretty much the least bad option they have.
I also suspect there's Cormann and Porter types who are quietly building to take over after an anticipated electoral drubbing. Wanting to be PM in the current polling position without having Turnbull's former personal popularity is dim and I'm sure plenty of them are smart enough to know it.
Bishop is probably their best actual real bet for getting back on a winning foot, but a)the conservatives hate her about as much as Morrison and b) she shows no signs whatsoever of wanting the poisoned chalice.
Elaugaufein
Member
But they really really hate Turnbull. To a logic defying extent. He's done literally everything they've wanted except for the moronic idea of putting Abbott back in the ministry and they still think he's a Socialist.
Most of its just a hard on because he returned the knife Abbott planted in his back.
Stop thinking that Bernadi and Christensen speak for the party, or even the more conservative elements of the party. While there is a pretty big division between the likes of Bishop, Brandis, Turnbull and Pyne against the likes of Morrison Dutton and Joyce, there's also pretty deep divisions within the latter group. Joyce and Dutton have come to blows many times already for example.
Elaugaufein
Member
I wasn't considering Joyce or Christensen in this , since they sit as Nats. Or Bernadi since he struck out on his own.
And yeah, the Nats and Libs have historically been an uneasy partnership, even the Lib Cons who support the Nats social agenda tend not to like their economics , when it comes to rural stuff the Nats can at times make Labor and the Greens seem positively lassez-faire. They usually hang together on the social values and the agreement that the Nats get plenty of pork to take home.
And I know Dutton and Morrison don't necessarily see eye to eye (Abbott wouldn't have gotten rolled otherwise).
Apologies if that wasn't clear.
Wasn't aimed at you personally. I just get a sense (maybe mistaken) that people are looking a very grey matter in black and white terms, my strong rebuke of Dutton earlier was meant to show that he would be unpalatable to certain sections of the party. Besides, Dutton is not a good performer, he would not be able to withstand questioning, he only has marginally thicker skin than Trump. I'm not truly a conservative, but conservatism really only works well when you temper the conservative paradigm with a bit of optimism about the future. It's what sets apart leaders like Abbott from Howard, Major from Thatcher and Bush (either of them) from Reagan. Dutton's story as PM would be like Abbott's, or Trump's.
Elaugaufein
Member
Yeah I'm under no illusion Dutton would be acceptable to a classical liberal type. But the man must have something, he's always in the ministry, and he wouldn't be fairly transparently putting drawing attention to himself as a potential leader without some encouragement. I never would have considered it a possibility without the rumours going around.
A decrease in penalty rates of 10% increases labour demand by 5%. It will also have flow on effects to consumers as their disposable income increases from lower prices. Companies exist in competition.
Price floors are almost always bad. Penalty rates should be eliminated entirely. Current Sunday penalty rates decrease employment by more than 50%.
Also Dutton isn't a chance. He has no appeal whatsoever. ScoMo is my bet after Turnbull limps along to 2019. Shame his government is essentially neutered by a populist opposition who oppose all good policies. And a real shame that all the LNP talent is in the Senate.
Also for those talking about free trade, we have increased redistribution to go along with it. Howards redistribution program was massive: http://www.pc.gov.au/research/supporting/income-distribution-trends/income-distribution-trends.pdf
Elaugaufein
Member
Good to have you back. And I waited 10 hours to make sure you weren't going to get banned again.
bobnowhere
Member
Bold statement!
Abetz - Idiot
Back - Nobody
Birmingham - Give you that one though he's never had an opinion that didn't come from head office
Brandis - Pompous idiot
Bushby - Rorter, lazy and incompetent
Cash - OMG hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Useless
Corman - All politics, all the time. Good political operator, useless person.
Duniam - Nobody more concerned about internal matters rather than actual results.
Fawcett - Called asylum seekers "fleas" Complete grub
Fierravanti-Wells - Lol nope. Another one obsessed with here own position.
Fifield - Decent, kowtowing to the ridiculous NBN party line though.
Hume - Fool
MacDonald - Never done a day of real work in his life but sure looks good in a set of colours.
McGrath - Suckhole to anyone who'll tell him what to do
McKenzie - Likes guns, like really likes guns, a lot, loves them, would probably marry one but marriage is between a man and a women and allowing people to marry guns would be the slippery slope that allowed people to marry artillery emplacements. Can't have that.
O'Sullivan - MacDonald's even less intelligent mate.
Paterson - Complete waste of space.
Payne - Probably the only real talent though she got where she is with a lot of blood on her hands.
Reynolds - Big fan of PHON
Ruston - Who?
Ryan - Meh
Seselja - May genuinely be evil. Worst human being in the place.
Sinodinas - Can't even get corruption right, lost money. Clown.
Smith - Principled if not much else.
Williams - Good fun, seems to have his heart in the right place.
So maybe 2 of any real talent and a couple that could use a good kick up the arse to get them going.
I'm aiming for a week. I need to think up a new way to get banned though, I've done the basics.
Also McGrath, Paterson and MacDonald are great. Although I might be biased with MacDonald, we got drunk together at a Christmas party.
D.Lo
Member
I giggled.
TheWasTheJoke
Member
Paterson's another Private School turned IPA Debating Hologram. No actual substance and hasn't actually served the community for a week of his life. Probably will go high but that's the libs for you.
Candescence
Member
Another demonstration of how messed up the housing situation is, 200k residential dwellings in Sydney are owned by investors and not occupied ever. Mainly foreign investors who consider tenants to be bad for the value of the property.
Investors who leave buildings vacant for months or even years need to get taxed to hell and back. That'll make sure either more investors will start renting out properties, or investors that don't want to will bolt and leave room for first home buyers or investors who DO want to rent. Of course, this government is terrified of doing anything that might cause the horses to bolt and burst the bubble, so...
Like it or not, the bubble is gonna have to burst eventually, and someone is gonna suffer as a result. But the bigger it gets, the worse the pop will be.
Investors who leave buildings vacant for months or even years need to get taxed to hell and back. That'll make sure either more investors will start renting out properties, or investors that don't want to will bolt and leave room for first home buyers or investors who DO want to rent. Of course, this government is terrified of doing anything that might cause the horses to bolt and burst the bubble, so...
Like it or not, the bubble is gonna have to burst eventually, and someone is gonna suffer as a result. But the bigger it gets, the worse the pop will be.
D.Lo
Member
The market is so hot these investors are making 100k a year gains and so are like 'lol, 15k from rent no way'.
Someone had the great idea that you pay triple rates for empty properties.
Pauline Hanson says Australians want Vladimir Putin's style of leadership
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ians-want-vladimir-putins-style-of-leadership
Does she see the problem, do you think?
Were you drunk?
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ians-want-vladimir-putins-style-of-leadership
but...
Does she see the problem, do you think?
Were you drunk?
I'm impressed I managed to type that out. I was pretty much blind last night.
LOL, hope you pulled up okay today.
Feet a bit sore from the club, but much healthier than I thought I'd be. The trick is getting no sleep and a litre of powerade while you're still hammered at 7am.
At least we got rid of our most useless idiot. The problem with Bernadi is that there are liberals who kind of adored him...As far as I'm concerned they can fuck off too but it's hard to say goodbye to a non-insignificant part of your voter base.
This is what the ALP must feel like all the time.
This is what the ALP must feel like all the time.
Elaugaufein
Member
Its kind of better for them the previous two times it happened long term, the DLP moved people from Labour to Right Wing Parties and the Democrats from the Libs to the Left. So at least they know with absolutely certainty it could be worse.
Abbott is way more of a hindrance IMO. At this rate you'll be able to make the argument he brought down four PMs in a row.
Elaugaufein
Member
Probably 5, if Turnbull's replacement gets slaughtered at an election then Abbott will likely take a significant part of the blame. As a bonus he will have brought down more PMs on his own side of politics too.
Would be pretty interesting actually in that scenario. I doubt the conservative wing would ever go back to Abbott, but I also doubt he'd ever be mollified with anything but the top job.
He'd just be wrecking for the sake of it.
Elaugaufein
Member
Looks like he made it about 3 days. An improvement over the last 2 times but not a week. I can't tell if he for banned for low grade trolling (pretending to support Trump) or disagreeing with the GAF-consensus since both happened around the same time.
Yeah, the way that Sanders supporters were treated here on GAF was utterly absurd. It's a shame that so many communities treat people who disagree with such disdain. It stops people at least being able to understand each other instead of being seen as cartoonishly evil or hopelessly misguided.
It's sad that the response has been to stop engaging with the other side completely. It polarises politics to an even greater extent, because if the other side aren't even bothering to listen, why bother trying to compromise?
Elaugaufein
Member
True but there's plenty of condescending lefties who get banned far more rarely.
ETA - Spoke to darkace via email (due to Crikey Sub) the ban is permanent this time.
TheWasTheJoke
Member
You can't really dissent on GAF it's weird. Like whenever I try post in OT with what I think are largely un-provocative takes I get dogpiled.
Like specifically with Darkace he said your dick if you don't like your right-wing friends because of their, I disagree but it's hardly treasonous talk. Im not a 'muh double standards' guy but if you're left and allowed to swear your head off and punch baddies then this isnt that bad.
Like specifically with Darkace he said your dick if you don't like your right-wing friends because of their, I disagree but it's hardly treasonous talk. Im not a 'muh double standards' guy but if you're left and allowed to swear your head off and punch baddies then this isnt that bad.
Just like in real life, it's easier to get away with saying things like that if people don't already hate you.
yup absolutely. but you have to remember where you are. this is arguably one of the most left leaning liberal safe zones on the internet. its a video game forum for outcasts. i'm a bleeding heart greens supporter and even i have trouble talking to some of these kids about stuff. they love to dogpile and shut you down if you disagree. its really quite infuriating. being reasonable and providing facts means little. its the only website i have issues discussing things with people as a lot of them think they are incredibly smart but they lack the skills to argue. as much as i disagree with darkace at least he could fucking argue lol. but yeh, i dont know why he bothered with the other threads unless he had a death wish.
anyways, the weird thing is that this thread is the complete opposite. you can actually have different views and discuss things. i appreciate it.
Elaugaufein
Member
I think we realise how unrepresentative this thread is. If Australian Elections reflected this thread the House would be 150 Greens unless someone on the zoning commission felt bad and did some gerrymandering to but even then it'd be like 100 / 30 / 20.
And the Senate would have a permanent Green supermajority.
And the Senate would have a permanent Green supermajority.
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