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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened
- Thread starter Bernbaum
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Elaugaufein
Member
I'm very much not and I still tread very carefully when expressing my rather libertarian take on civil liberties which is about the only point I significantly differ on.
Depends what you were hiding from.
She's just blindly following the Trump script on everything but isn't savvy enough to paper over the contradictions or make any tweaks that might help her. Same thing Bernardi does but for him it's even stupider since he's been part of the "establishment" voting bloc in the Coalition forever.
Candescence
Member
So a group on the left in NSW Labor is pushing for non-means tested Universal Basic Income.
I do support UBI and think it's inevitable, but actually convincing the electorate to go for it would be pretty hard.
I do support UBI and think it's inevitable, but actually convincing the electorate to go for it would be pretty hard.
bobnowhere
Member
Leaked Internal Liberal Party polling suggests Saturday is going to be a massacre in WA.
57-43 2pp and the feedback they are getting is it's down to the PHON preference swap deal.
This will look bad for Malcolm "PHON are a far more sophisticated political movement" Turnbull.
57-43 2pp and the feedback they are getting is it's down to the PHON preference swap deal.
This will look bad for Malcolm "PHON are a far more sophisticated political movement" Turnbull.
Elaugaufein
Member
That wasn't Turnbull was it ? It was Sinodinos I think ?
D.Lo
Member
Eh, she's a moron but I've disliked this juxtaposition that has been made by various places.
Yes, with the vaccinations, yes she uses the word dictatorship to describe coercive government policy and is a moron on the subject.
But she just talked about Putin being a strong leader, and that Australia could do with a strong leader, which given our recent collection of egomaniacs, loose cannons, wet blankets, iceberg tips and cowards for leaders I completely agree with. Do we want an actual Putin, of course not and it would never happen, but for example Howard and Keating closer to Putin than the current ineffective herd in terms of strength.
Elaugaufein
Member
Abbott was a strong leader by the authoritarian metric more so than Howard certainly (Howard met his downfall when unconstrained by the Senate but was able be to negotiate pretty well until that point). He sucked because of it not in spite it, Abbott tried to strong arm a body he had no power over and managed to get people need who mostly agreed with him offside and yet pigheadedly persisted.
D.Lo
Member
I don't think Hanson meant political capability strong.
I assume she meant as an someone who projects a vision that people can get behind, and makes them proud of their country.
As a country we haven't elected a leader we liked and believed in vision-wise since Rudd, we're simply kicking out the one we hate more. And even Rudd fell apart at the seams for 1-2 years.
Is it possible we put too much stock in the idea of a Prime Minister and not enough in the idea of Parliamentary composition?
Seems to me we've elected a series of successive governments who are comprised of parties with deep ideological divisions which makes formulating policy and coherent messaging impossible.
I mean what good does it do to have a strong PM with a distinct vision for the country if they can't get shit through the Senate? Alternatively what good does it do if you have a PM with views that are popular in the general community but is constrained by his or her own party?
We aren't Americans after all, we don't elect an executive, and even their power is finite.
Seems to me we've elected a series of successive governments who are comprised of parties with deep ideological divisions which makes formulating policy and coherent messaging impossible.
I mean what good does it do to have a strong PM with a distinct vision for the country if they can't get shit through the Senate? Alternatively what good does it do if you have a PM with views that are popular in the general community but is constrained by his or her own party?
We aren't Americans after all, we don't elect an executive, and even their power is finite.
I've still yet to see anyone ever explain how you pay for a UBI. I mean I think we had this discussion a couple of months ago and even then the response was 'oh you just tax' without recognising the humungous, massive tax increase that it would require, the likes of which we'd never, ever seen before. I mean seriously, that article just says:
We already have progressive taxation you dolts.
All to fix an issue (income inequality) that could be fixed with smarter taxation policy and more directed redistribution to those who need it. It's like wanting to chop down a tree so you fire a nuke at it. Sure, the tree is gone but what of the collateral damage?
D.Lo
Member
It's true, but they still sell us the government like it's a presidential ticket.
The PM and treasurer are salesmen and need to be charismatic to bring the public along (and get elected). And yes they need a team to value that and work together to the goal.
Gillard's government was productive, but what's the point when you get kicked out and it all gets undone.
It's really not that hard dude. Yes it involves a massive increase, but most of it is given back as the payment. Yes technically double handling, but much less admin.
Here's a simplified example. Take the current tax rates. Adjust them so all above the TF threshold pay 15k more. Pay everyone 15k. Those 0-15k already get centrelink to that level-ish and pay no tax so no changes. Everyone else comes out even.
What it achieves is complete removal of the expensive social security admin, and removes the stigma of the dole since everyone gets it whether they want it or not.
Yeah and a majority of the media seems more interested in selling that side of things as well.
You saw so many stories about how Turnbull went hard at Shorten earlier in the year but from a policy/outcome perspective it meant nothing really.
There's literally no way for everyone to come out even. We went through this the last time. Paying everyone $15k means doubling tax revenue.
TheWasTheJoke
Member
The viability of UBI is obviously contingent on the set amount of income.
At the moment to pay what individuals would consider a 'living wage' seem's unfeasible. You're adding large groups of people to a the welfare system and at the same time also increasing spending on most, but not all individuals currently receiving benefits. For those who your not spending more on, such as those on disability benefits, since the money they receive is often essential it is likely the government would have to ensure current spending levels on them anyway.
So to pay for this is the much vaunted savings in social security admin, which are really comparatively quite small. Australia has a ridiculously efficient bureaucracy and while I don't have the exact figure it's not nearly enough to justify the program.
also ytb im now a full member
At the moment to pay what individuals would consider a 'living wage' seem's unfeasible. You're adding large groups of people to a the welfare system and at the same time also increasing spending on most, but not all individuals currently receiving benefits. For those who your not spending more on, such as those on disability benefits, since the money they receive is often essential it is likely the government would have to ensure current spending levels on them anyway.
So to pay for this is the much vaunted savings in social security admin, which are really comparatively quite small. Australia has a ridiculously efficient bureaucracy and while I don't have the exact figure it's not nearly enough to justify the program.
also ytb im now a full member
UBI wont happen until automation of nearly all jobs occur. it's far too early to consider.
A better option is having just two payments - unemployment and disability.
Unemployed get 15k which goes down slowly as they work, disability get 30k (medicare covers treating said disability). Carer is a part of disability and they get a supplement based on income - unemployed they get 20k (15k unemployed + 5k carer supplement).
All other centrelink payments are gone. Unemployed is expanded to include studying approved courses which have a high employment rate related to course studied. Better yet if HECs is also given based on this - no more Arts degrees and Social Studies degrees getting money for learning nothing useful.
Pensions phased out for new retirees - replaced by Super only. Although they could get unemployment rate you could argue is effectively a reduced cost pension.
Centrelink is now far more efficient - you can automate most of it with data sharing with the ATO.
A better option is having just two payments - unemployment and disability.
Unemployed get 15k which goes down slowly as they work, disability get 30k (medicare covers treating said disability). Carer is a part of disability and they get a supplement based on income - unemployed they get 20k (15k unemployed + 5k carer supplement).
All other centrelink payments are gone. Unemployed is expanded to include studying approved courses which have a high employment rate related to course studied. Better yet if HECs is also given based on this - no more Arts degrees and Social Studies degrees getting money for learning nothing useful.
Pensions phased out for new retirees - replaced by Super only. Although they could get unemployment rate you could argue is effectively a reduced cost pension.
Centrelink is now far more efficient - you can automate most of it with data sharing with the ATO.
That can be later - but we have to rapidly transition away from a resources based economy to a high knowledge (R&D), service economy that doesn't also rely on Real Estate.
Elaugaufein
Member
Arts and Social Sciences feed back into "Hard" Science , I make the same jokes about soft sciences as any IT / Applied Maths grad but there's been some good stuff on stats and large scale human behaviour from the soft sciences and mental health probably wouldn't have been a thing without them. Theoretical maths is often classed as arts too, as well as a variety of human services like social workers.
There's also ethics and history which are valuable for obvious reasons. And communications is useful too.
There are very few degrees that we wouldn't miss if no one undertook them except for bored rich dilettantes with too much time and money.
Which isn't to say that current course distributions are right more that blanket blacklisting is unwise. You could do something like only having so many sponsored places awarded on merit instead but even that relies on you being able to predict society 10 years from now, which frankly we have a sucky track record of.
Love or hate him, you can't deny the genius of PJ Keating. For someone who never finished high school, he destroyed these so called educated Liberals
https://youtu.be/vII9mpcmeLw
https://youtu.be/vII9mpcmeLw
Elaugaufein
Member
He was a great speaker and very quick of wit yeah.
Normally I despise those who take joy in people's passing, but I'm far from upset there'll be no more Bill Leak cartoons.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...k=e8352fd95d4bc79f89f6e0f421b933d0-1489110402
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...k=e8352fd95d4bc79f89f6e0f421b933d0-1489110402
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
I don't get it. They can't be that ba..... oh. Ohhhh! Oh.
He still got at least one more steaming pile off before he died
Fuck him and fuck his defenders. It sucks that death is what it took to shut him up but at least we don't have to hear from him anymore.
Yikes. Yeah they say don't speak ill of the dead but jeez.
bobnowhere
Member
Oh no, what ever will I do?
After his head injury about 10 years ago when he fell off his balcony he turned into a right POS. Before that he was far more normal, didn't think it was possible to catch racism from a head knock.
He was a fine portrait artist though.
TheWasTheJoke
Member
RIP, hope his friends and family are ok.
Man was a bit of a prick though
Man was a bit of a prick though
Elaugaufein
Member
Severe head injuries causing personality changes are common enough I got Google scholar hits when searching "head trauma personality changes" on normal Google. One of the papers actually shows perceived changes and most of them are pretty much what you'd expect from someone who'd been in a severely traumatic situation (less self-reliant and more cautious) but the ones related to impulse control (maturity vs childishness , excitability and stability) take hits on average too.
its very sad that someone has lost their dad. and he was clearly an exceptionally talented artist. as for his work, i'm very conflicted. i feel like its the job of art to sometimes be provocative, to generate conversation, to say things that noone else can say, and so i appreciate what he did in terms of trying to show that you cant put a limit on what art is or is about. i personally feel its very dangerous to tell artists, writers, etc that there are certain topics they cant talk about even if its incredibly painful.
buuut on the other hand, some of his stuff WAS incredibly harsh. and i wonder how helpful it was in terms of the betterment of society.
buuut on the other hand, some of his stuff WAS incredibly harsh. and i wonder how helpful it was in terms of the betterment of society.
bobnowhere
Member
It'll be interesting to see if The Nats end up holding the BOP in WA tonight. They have been badly burnt by the Libs this election.
Edit: Fake planning documents showing Mosque development turning up in voters mailboxes this morning in Stirling
Real subtle.
Edit: Fake planning documents showing Mosque development turning up in voters mailboxes this morning in Stirling
Real subtle.
Elaugaufein
Member
Interestingly Corman was apparently involved in the WA Lib-PHON preference deal and has defended it, if it turns out badly for him this will​ be the first time he's taken a serious hit on something. The ramifications of that could be interesting since he's both a solid conservative and a Turnbull backer.
Turnbull's chances of going will also depend on exactly how things go on that too. If they fail to hold BoP and they cost Lib seats on net , then Turnbull is probably safer for a while (until Queensland). If the results suggest that a move to the right is the best idea for the Libs Federally Turnbull is screwed and may only be saved by the fact Dutton is on the list of replacements which isn't so much scraping the bottom of the barrel as searching in the rust on the underside of the barrel.
Turnbull's chances of going will also depend on exactly how things go on that too. If they fail to hold BoP and they cost Lib seats on net , then Turnbull is probably safer for a while (until Queensland). If the results suggest that a move to the right is the best idea for the Libs Federally Turnbull is screwed and may only be saved by the fact Dutton is on the list of replacements which isn't so much scraping the bottom of the barrel as searching in the rust on the underside of the barrel.
Elaugaufein
Member
Anyone on the ground in WA ?
Candescence
Member
Really, the Coalition is in crisis in general. As I've said before, they don't have the talent or leadership to unite against Bill Shorten of all people and are wracked by ideological disputes, nevermind one side of this dispute is hopelessly out of touch with the electorate. Despite Labor's faults, they're pretty much united, know what they want in terms of policy, can actually negotiate with the crossbench, and they are closer to being able to tap into discontent about the status quo than the Coalition is. Barring any kind of disaster on Labor's part, I expect the federal Coalition to end up in the political wilderness for at least a decade come the next election.
bobnowhere
Member
The ABC has been banned from the PHON function apparently!
#fakenews
#fakenews
Aarglefarg
Member
It sounds like Antony will call it for Labor soon.
bobnowhere
Member
Looks like Labor already have 9 of the 10 they need, 15%+ swing against the Libs, Nats held up.
Aarglefarg
Member
The World's Favourite Analyst predicted Labor gets 33.
Labor will win government, ABC says.
Labor will win government, ABC says.
Confirmed I believe. Funny how other media outlets were allowed. Salty one notion
Green has called it
Elaugaufein
Member
This is probably the best outcome possible for Turnbull, so far. Buddying up to PHON has hurt the Libs and not hasn't hurt the Nats. Its a bit of a club against the hard right.
Candescence
Member
Yet another Lib/Nat state government goes down. I suppose that leaves Tasmania and the clusterfuck that is NSW?
bobnowhere
Member
Tasmania is still traditionally strong Lab/Grn, it's flip back soon. The Libs are at a 7 year low in Tassie at the moment, NSW is terrible on both sides so who knows?
Thor Kerr is a great name, was alway going to be a green candidate with a name like that,
Mah, its just how bad NSW Labor is. Even disaffiliating ir something would work.
NSW Greens and other independance should be capitalizing.
bobnowhere
Member
Eric Abetz's brother Peter lost his seat.
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