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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened

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T

tri_willy

Member
mjontrix said:
Mah, its just how bad NSW Labor is. Even disaffiliating ir something would work.

NSW Greens and other independance should be capitalizing.
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Understandable given how badly corrupt both sides are... NSW does need a massive shake up but I can't see that happening at all
 
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TheWasTheJoke

Member
Can anyone give me a quick rundown of the problems of NSW Labor? I know the Keneally government were extremely corrupt but as far as I know Carr was fine.
 
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bobnowhere

Member
The Daylight Savings party is on track to win 3-4 seats in the upper house! I suspect they are busily coming up with other policies, any other policies, an opinion on anything else!

Edit: Might wait a bit, some of the numbers on the WA site are a little funky. In North Met. The ALP has 173k votes and the Libs 925. Some random independent has 90k, I suspect someone has mixed up the Libs and that guy. There is a swing, probably not that big!
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
The Daylight Savings party is on track to win 3-4 seats in the upper house! I suspect they are busily coming up with other policies, any other policies, an opinion on anything else!

Edit: Might wait a bit, some of the numbers on the WA site are a little funky. In North Met. The ALP has 173k votes and the Libs 925. Some random independent has 90k, I suspect someone has mixed up the Libs and that guy. There is a swing, probably not that big!
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XD. Clearly using Antony Green's computers.
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
At the start of the night the vote swing from the libs was 2:1 ONP/Lab and by the end it was 2:1 Lab/ONP.
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Thats pretty much what happened in Queensland last time around too, they got themselves murdered by ON in the regional areas and then got murdered by losing mod libs in the cities (which are more populous).
 
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bananabread

Member
- One Nation got fucked
- Liberals got fucked
- My good friend (Zak Kirkup, Lib candidate in Dawesville) managed to hold on to his seat, replacing the retiring Kim Hames. He's been working toward this basically since I met him in high school so I'd have been devastated to see him lose in a wave election.

Best possible result for me personally.
 
Q

Quasar

Member
Glad to see one nation not rewarded.

I kind of feared the result having one nation with seats and having the balance of power in a weak Barnett government.
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
Quasar said:
Glad to see one nation not rewarded.

I kind of feared the result having one nation with seats and having the balance of power in a weak Barnett government.
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They may yet be part of it in the LC, it's too early to call due to the proportional system. But it's pretty certain that Labor won't have a majority and probable that Labor + Greens would still need at least 1 more vote and PHON is looking like a seat.

Libs for screwed by the preference deal, about the only thing they may get out of it is knocking off the Nats leader which isn't​ likely to do them any favors with the Nats.
 
D

danm999

Member
Love seeing PHON go down in flames. People can stop talking about their rise and instead about how they're nasty little fringe fascists who aren't competent.
 
T

toddhunter

Member
bananabread said:
- One Nation got fucked
- Liberals got fucked
- My good friend (Zak Kirkup, Lib candidate in Dawesville) managed to hold on to his seat, replacing the retiring Kim Hames. He's been working toward this basically since I met him in high school so I'd have been devastated to see him lose in a wave election.

Best possible result for me personally.
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Spare a thought for Mr Bernardi.

Lol
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Looks like ONP might sneak 1 in the upper house. Terrible result for them though. They polled better than the final result shows, 13% in some country areas but due to everyone but the Libs preferencing against them they lost out.

Party Current Predicted
WA Labor 11 15
Liberal Party 16 9
The Nationals 5 4
The Greens 2 3
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 2 2
Fluoride Free WA 0 1
Liberal Democrats 0 1
One Nation 0 1

Puts Lab+GRN at 18 so they'll still need one more to pass anything. The Lib Dem should be onboard for a lot of progressive social policy and it shouldn't be too hard to get the Nats or the SFF for some of the economic stuff if they throw them a bone.
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
Looks like ONP might sneak 1 in the upper house. Terrible result for them though. They polled better than the final result shows, 13% in some country areas but due to everyone but the Libs preferencing against them they lost out.

Party Current Predicted
WA Labor 11 15
Liberal Party 16 9
The Nationals 5 4
The Greens 2 3
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 2 2
Fluoride Free WA 0 1
Liberal Democrats 0 1
One Nation 0 1

Puts Lab+GRN at 18 so they'll still need one more to pass anything. The Lib Dem should be onboard for a lot of progressive social policy and it shouldn't be too hard to get the Nats or the SFF for some of the economic stuff if they throw them a bone.
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The tricky part will be fixing the malapportionment in the LC itself.

The prediction I'm looking at has Daylight Savings instead of Lib Dems.

The only path I can currently see is based on Daylight Savings / Lib Dem's since everyone else but Liberals and Fluoride Free benefit from it. I'm ruling the Libs out since I think there relationship with the Nats is likely shitty enough already that they won't be willing to make it worse by doing this (it also greatly reduces the chance of a conservative upper house) and Fluoride Free will be conspiracy nutters who aren't going to help.
 
C

Candescence

Member
In other news... Malcom is jumping on Elon Musk's "100 days or it's free" battery storage proposal bandwagon after SA Labor eagerly leaped into negotiating a possible deal. Even SA Libs are keen on the idea. We're actually seeing bipartisanship on energy for once??
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
Candescence said:
In other news... Malcom is jumping on Elon Musk's "100 days or it's free" battery storage proposal bandwagon after SA Labor eagerly leaped into negotiating a possible deal. Even SA Libs are keen on the idea. We're actually seeing bipartisanship on energy for once??
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You'd have to be out of your mind to not at least consider it. Its an insanely good offer.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Elaugaufein said:
The tricky part will be fixing the malapportionment in the LC itself.

The prediction I'm looking at has Daylight Savings instead of Lib Dems.

The only path I can currently see is based on Daylight Savings / Lib Dem's since everyone else but Liberals and Fluoride Free benefit from it. I'm ruling the Libs out since I think there relationship with the Nats is likely shitty enough already that they won't be willing to make it worse by doing this (it also greatly reduces the chance of a conservative upper house) and Fluoride Free will be conspiracy nutters who aren't going to help.
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Perth has about 1.8mil people and there are about 800k in the rest of WA, yet the Upper House is split 50/50 between Perth and the rest. I suppose at least the lower house isn't Joe-mandered.

I suspect if it turns out Labor only need 1 vote outside of the Greens a lot of people will be desperate to make deals to get their own issues up. Labor will probably be able to pick and choose the best deal going for most of their policy plan.

Just once I'd love to see a left-wing/prog one issues conspiracy nutter get up somewhere, the always seem to be from the right.

Candescence said:
In other news... Malcom is jumping on Elon Musk's "100 days or it's free" battery storage proposal bandwagon after SA Labor eagerly leaped into negotiating a possible deal. Even SA Libs are keen on the idea. We're actually seeing bipartisanship on energy for once??
Click to expand...

Where the funding will come from will probably the point that is politicised now. But it will take the edge off the Coal is awesome campaign, maybe Malcolm is going to do something good for a change, actually maybe 2 in one day with his pro-vaccine proposals today.
 
A

AdventureRacing

Member
Candescence said:
In other news... Malcom is jumping on Elon Musk's "100 days or it's free" battery storage proposal bandwagon after SA Labor eagerly leaped into negotiating a possible deal. Even SA Libs are keen on the idea. We're actually seeing bipartisanship on energy for once??
Click to expand...

I feel like this is one of those too good to be true things. Hoping something more comes out of it but just can't see it happening.
 
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Dead Man

Member
Happily surprised by the WA results, faith in humanity restored a little bit when I see a PHON preference deal causing carnage like that.

Also:

George Brandis not taking diary order seriously, Labor says, amid push for contempt hearing
Federal Labor is trying to push contempt of court proceedings against Attorney-General George Brandis, arguing he is not taking an order relating to his ministerial diary seriously.

Senator Brandis and his counterpart, Shadow Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus, have been locked in a stalemate for almost three years.

Mr Dreyfus lodged a freedom of information (FOI) request to access an electronic copy of the Attorney-General's diary, to see who he met with before sweeping cuts hit his portfolio in the 2014 federal budget.
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But Mr Dreyfus's lawyers have argued nothing has happened since.

They wrote to Senator Brandis' lawyers informing them they would ask the Federal Court to grant a hearing if he did not process the request, so they could argue Senator Brandis was in contempt of that ruling.

The letter, seen by the ABC, stated that Mr Dreyfus's lawyers have not seen any evidence of progress since their last correspondence with the Senator's office in early February.

It stated that no explanation for further delay has been offered, despite it now being six months since the court ruling.

The standard FOI processing time is meant to be 30 days.

When questioned about the latest claim by Labor, the Attorney-General's office directed the ABC to answers he provided on the FOI claim during the last round of Senate Estimates in February.

At the time, Senator Brandis said it had been "disgracefully alleged" that he was in contempt of the court.

He said that when the FOI had been processed by his office, there would be a response provided to Mr Dreyfus.
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Candescence

Member
Brandis' deadline is up, Dreyfus has started contempt hearings.

Meanwhile, David Pope continues to be a national treasure.

C6x0XIIU8AAPhQT.jpg:large
 
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Candescence

Member
Double post, but SA government has released its fairly comprehensive energy plan, and the federal government is fucking livid, partly because it involves giving the SA government the power to override the National Electricity Market in emergencies. The SA government also intends to build and own its own gas plant and electrical storage, meaning they're trying to get around the fact that the electricity network is privatised.

Victoria is also planning to get a storage plant built.

It's good to see Labor governments going against the privatisation flow and humiliating the feds over energy policy.
 
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bobnowhere

Member
So, Turnbull's solution is to open up gas supplies and "hope" the gas companies don't just sell the addition supply to Asia and "instruct" them to take the national interest into account when they make their decision. Never known a Publicly traded company to choose the national interest over cash. The Gladstone LNG export plant was made so far over current usage capacity that they buy gas a a loss just to keep the plant going.
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
So, Turnbull's solution is to open up gas supplies and "hope" the gas companies don't just sell the addition supply to Asia and "instruct" them to take the national interest into account when they make their decision. Never known a Publicly traded company to choose the national interest over cash. The Gladstone LNG export plant was made so far over current usage capacity that they buy gas a a loss just to keep the plant going.
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A foreign listed company is likely obligated to screw our national interest for their fiduciary duty unless national interest has enough teeth to make those align. Which it won't.

ETA - The government is somewhat​ screwed here short to midterm , much of that export is on fixed contracts and retroactively altering those deals would actually be Sovereign Risk. Not the bizarre argument where passing non-retrospective laws we don't like is Sovereign Risk.
 
D

danm999

Member
bobnowhere said:
So, Turnbull's solution is to open up gas supplies and "hope" the gas companies don't just sell the addition supply to Asia and "instruct" them to take the national interest into account when they make their decision. Never known a Publicly traded company to choose the national interest over cash. The Gladstone LNG export plant was made so far over current usage capacity that they buy gas a a loss just to keep the plant going.
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Same strategy he used with the banks; some parting tough talk about how naughty they've been then move to do everything they asked for (in that case tax cuts).
 
S

Striek

Member
Haha, Jay Weatherill is slaying Josh Frydenberg at a SA power press conference. Literally shoulder to shoulder. Awkward.
 
D

danm999

Member
I don't really think Frydenberg really believes in the shit he and Turnbull are selling.

Explains why he's just sitting there and letting it wash over him and the best he can muster is to complain about gatecrashing.
 
C

Candescence

Member
Newspoll 2PP and primary vote has reversed by 3 points, putting the former on 52/48 to Labor. The shift seems rather inexplicable, TBH. Possibly an outlier?
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
Candescence said:
Newspoll 2PP and primary vote has reversed by 3 points, putting the former on 52/48 to Labor. The shift seems rather inexplicable, TBH. Possibly an outlier?
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Might also be a consequence of the WA Election, the wave and PHON not doing as well as expected may have bought some Libs and Nats home.
 
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Arksy

Member
It's astonishing that the Libs in WA didn't treat PHON the same way John Howard did, with utter contempt and rage, and they paid the price for it. I don't think many Lib voters would vote PHON in places of Australia that aren't Queensland.
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
Arksy said:
It's astonishing that the Libs in WA didn't treat PHON the same way John Howard did, with utter contempt and rage, and they paid the price for it. I don't think many Lib voters would vote PHON in places of Australia that aren't Queensland.
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Many Lib voters don't, even in Queensland (PHON isn't going to win Teneriffe or Hamilton or Brisbane City etc any time soon or even poll well in them) . The Queensland LNP boned themselves back in the day, they lost a couple of rural seats to PHON, won a few from PHON preferences and then got utterly slaughtered in the inner metro seats which allowed Labor to form majority government.

It's the Rural and Suburban seats where PHON tends to do best.
 
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