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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?
- Thread starter Bernbaum
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He probably thinks he's untouchable because they could never really do it.
At some point they'll do it just to save a few seats.
There is no way he contests the next election at this point.
D.Lo
Member
It just goes to show how random life can be.
By all rights Hewson, Beazley, Costello etc would have made far better PMs than their contemporaries.
Instead we got the absolutely pathetic 'last man standing' little Johnny who reigned against all odds for over a decade, a blip of Rudd cut short by a politically suicidal rise of Gillard, followed up by an unelectable fruitcake.
It's an insane last 20 years. If it wasn't for China wanting rocks we would have basically been a big New Zealand at this point.
"A vote for the Liberals will give us the mandate we need to elect a new leader"
bobnowhere
Member
There's a hell of a lot of First-termers who are seeing their political careers flashing before their very eyes right about now and there are probably a lot of longer serving MP's who though their seat was safe that are also getting restless. Never underestimate the, political, survival instinct.
Even if numbers aren't being run, that fact that people assume or think they are will result in them being run anyway. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. Unless something miraculous happens the LNP will Abbort before the end of the year and Hockey will go with him.
Even if numbers aren't being run, that fact that people assume or think they are will result in them being run anyway. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. Unless something miraculous happens the LNP will Abbort before the end of the year and Hockey will go with him.
And the main contender is Shorten compared to Albo. FFS.
D.Lo
Member
Exactly, the useless union hack who orchestrated the move (Rudd backstab) that put Labor where they are now. He's crap AND tainted.
Jesus the Libs also have Turnbull and Bishop, yet we have Knight Boy?
This makes it sound like Rudd was excluded from your list. Labor were so desperate that they appointed a leader than none of them liked.
D.Lo
Member
Sure, but at the very least he was a talented and charismatic man who clearly and cleanly won an election for them. And it wasn't so much being disliked that did him in (lots of leaders are disliked), the main issue was he was not factionally backed, so was easy for them to shove out when they got dissatisfied with him, despite him bringing them out of an 11 year desert.
It's impossible to argue that the knifing of Rudd was not a massive political blunder that any idiot should have foreseen.
EDIT: You could argue putting him in in the first place was the blunder, but either way it's all part of a continuum.
By all reports, he was sorely lacking in talent at internal politics and diplomacy.
It's possible to argue that the appointment of Rudd was the blunder that lead to his inevitable knifing. Rudd gets excused for far too much. He clearly had problems and made blunders himself as PM. His mishandling of the ETS in favour of political games is inexcusable.
D.Lo
Member
Not my problem as a voter. That's Labor's problem, they needed to work it out in such a way their actual boss (the voter) stayed happy.
They didn't.
There's no arguing with that. All I'm saying is that Rudd was as much a party to it as everyone else.
roosters93
Member
Lots of leaders may be disliked but Rudd would have to take the cake as of late. He was immensely disliked.
Rudd could have easily survived without being factionally backed. He was the first Labor leader in 100 years to elect his own cabinet, usually decided with the factions. They were weaker than ever. If he didn't isolate himself, alienate colleagues and try to run everything by himself (or through the gang of four) he could have survived.
In the aftermath of the the change in leadership labor people were wary to badmouth Rudd publicly which I think led to a distortion of the event, with most of the public unaware of the slow suicide Rudd had himself been committing. With hindsight it's clear the person most responsible for the fall of Rudd was Rudd himself. He was a terrible leader
He cultivated public popularity through Sunrise et al. and lived and died by it.
bobnowhere
Member
I think it's pretty clear Newman is going to win on Saturday, somewhere in the region of 51.5-52.5% 2pp.
While he's a liar and impossibly arrogant, having him make a victory speech on Saturday night after he's lost his seat would be one of the funniest things in the history of Auspol.
While he's a liar and impossibly arrogant, having him make a victory speech on Saturday night after he's lost his seat would be one of the funniest things in the history of Auspol.
Elaugaufein
Member
Do we have any figures on how he's doing personally in his electorate ? Last I heard he had clawed back enough ground to be a possible contender.
That's a bit unfair, there is (like in the federal level) no real opposition. Campbell really blows, and I would love to see him ousted but what will the alternative be like?
Better than Newman?
Really? That is pretty weak. If he's that bad, anyone is better, if he's not that bad, stop whining.
Huh, there is no evidence the opposition is any better, why is it assured 'anyone' else is just better, that's stupid logic. I am willing to take that chance and vote against him, but there is no guarantee, hell not even a good indication that the opposition is better.
It's just like how "terrible" people felt federal labor was, "oh we don't like abbott but he must be better" how did that work out?
One would hope, but who knows, the more probable outcome is we get rid of "terrible" newman and still keep the LNP and potentially get someone even worse. The outlook is bleak for QLD regardless of what happens. At this point it seems unlikely the party itself will get voted out, the best we can probably hope for is a hung parliament, which isn't a great thing but at least might keep things a bit more in check.
edit: I should clarify this a bit, as you people aren't from Qld. Not many (any?) people really know what state Labor stand for in Qld, they seem to be marketing themselves on the LNP's mishaps rather than selling their own vision/policies.
LOL, fair point, but I don't think anyone but idiots voted for the Libs nationally on that basis. It just seems weak. You have plenty of people to give the primary vote to, it doesn't have to a case of resigning yourself to actually voting for the monkey just because he is going to win. Was Labor actually worse for the state than Newman has been? Use your preferences. You don't have to vote for him is the point. Vote for whoever you think WOULD do better. If you actually think your local LNP candidate is the best option, vote for them. Otherwise, don't. There is no guarantee that anyone is better, but given the Newman track record, it seems it isn't too hard to find a candidate who would at least be less bad than whatever candidate the party has seen fit to give you in your electorate.
The problem DeadMan (as I edited in my last post) is we don't really know what Labor stand for. I am saying all this by playing a pseudo devils advocate. I have been a Labor voter for the past 4 federal and state elections, with a mix of Greens/Indies/Liberal/LNP (think I even voted for Democrats once) thrown in before that. I will vote for Labor again, but I have no idea what I am voting for this time around apart from someone other than the LNP. I think Labor were really caught off guard with Newmans snap election and are still scrambling to create some policies, problem is, they only have a few days.
Elaugaufein
Member
I'm pretty sure Labor would have had this problem no matter when the election occurred. Labor wipes in Queensland happen harder than LNP wipes because Queensland has some very very safe rural seats for conservatives (Katter and One Nation are the only groups who could potentially threaten those seats and Katter pretty much binned himself by preference Labor over the Coalition at the federal election in those seats). As a result Labor has very little in the way of resources or ministers and unlike the Greens its not a position that Labor is used to working from. Newman has done a fair chunk to make it as difficult as possible (eg he allocated more total time to review but he did it by holding reviews simultaneously which is not a good thing if your Shadow Cabinet is 7 people who aren't Time Lords).
LOL, okay. A known piece of shit is better than an unknown. Fair enough, if you are a dire pessimist. And how is Labor unknown? By that measure no government would change ever. Sorry, I'm not having a lot of sympathy for your position at the moment. You are a staunch centre left voter, and worried about voting centre left because you are only familiar with the yoke of Newman? Yeah... nah.
Elaugaufein
Member
I'm past center left, but I'd still prefer the LNP to Katter's Australian Party (Conservative Social Values For All, Socialism For Farmers & Graziers, Fuck You For Everyone Else) or One Nation ('nuff said), at least for the moment (they are doing their best to move right far enough to change that though). And Newman is admittedly better than many of his colleagues in his party (e.g Jarrod Bleijie). I did vote Green then Labor, and put the LNP second last (would have been third last but One Nation didn't run a candidate in my seat)
High Court rules the detaining of the 157 Sri Lankan asylum seekers (stateless non-citizens?) was legal in a 4:3 decision. This is pre- legislative changes which voided our international obligations; will be interested to see any analysis, since Opinions on High hasn't put anything up yet.
/edit ruling is here
CJ French, Crennan, Gageler and Keane found authorisation in the Maritime Powers Act; Bell, Hayne joint dissent; Kiefel seperate dissent.
/edit ruling is here
CJ French, Crennan, Gageler and Keane found authorisation in the Maritime Powers Act; Bell, Hayne joint dissent; Kiefel seperate dissent.
I don't really care if you have sympathy or not, that is not a goal of mine here
(edit: re-reading that, it sounds a little pointed, not my intention, much <3 ), my point is simply I have no idea what vision Labor really have in mind for the next three years, the last Labor goverment in this state was pretty terrible as well. I am 39, I have seen plenty of bad governments in Qld, and a lot of bad things from Labor governments in Qld, they are not immune from being pretty damn terrible. Values are one thing, bad decisions are another thing entirely. Annastacia might just be the premier this state needs, or she might just bring us more problems. I have taken a chance by voting for her, it was her or the Greens (I only had 3 options on my ballot paper).http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/que...an-on-track-to-lose-seat-20150128-130bim.html
Elaugaufein
Member
I'd expect him to recover some of that on polling day since the LNP look like a lock and voters are reluctant to deprive a potential premier. But I think that gaps large enough that he's toast anyway. Apparently we're electing Premier Unknown LNP Member.
bobnowhere
Member
Hahahahahahahaha!
So what will happen, Campbell for Canberra or in a few months a sitting member in a safe LNP seat will step aside for "reasons" and in will fly Newman?
Even funnier would be a hung parliament. I wonder how long it will take for both parties who swore blind they would never do deals with independants/third parties to do deals with independants/third parties for the good of the state, to end the uncertainty. About 12 seconds I imagine.
Well, at least they didn't decide that it was part of the executive's inherent power.
Yea, the marginals that are predicated as an LNP hold in the latest Newspoll(?) are apparently because of a swing towards them in the 18-34 age bracket.
About as useful as reading tea leaves and goat entrails.
If the Queensland Labor Party does secure victory it will be like Victoria 1999 times 5.
Elaugaufein
Member
I'm trying to come up with a reason for a swing towards the LNP in the 18-34 age bracket that wouldn't also carry over into the other brackets that isn't that the LNP vote in the other brackets is already 100% and I'm not getting a lot. Sad to say losing Newman as leader will probably result in the LNP moving right socially, remaining the same economically and not really changing in terms of authoritarianism so its not like his loss is going to improve their standings among younger voters. I got nothing.
I really don't think Queensland Labor has a chance in hell of winning though. Even on 2PP they are down 2-3%. Its likely the real gap is larger since some Greens voters will exhaust their vote (which is frankly moronic, the way OPV is supposed to work is that you number every box until you regard every remaining candidate as equally bad). Their comeback by the polls is already incredible, if they hang the parliament it'll be impressive, if they win I'll be suitably pleased and admit I was wrong.
Queensland is so messed up with only 1 house and it being representational instead of proportional, its basically a recipe for people like Newman. But that was Labor's fault for dissolving the upper house instead of making it elective instead of appointed. Actually now that I think about it Queensland Labour has a fairly long track record of kicking their future political successors in the gonads. Joe's reign was basically a bunch of them combining in a baaad way for the ALP.
So pretty much the LNP's campaign at the last federal election? Gotcha.
Means they might have a chance.
IIRC Labor want to introduce a ban on selling alcohol after midnight. I can't see that being popular with that age set.
bobnowhere
Member
Elaugaufein
Member
I don't remember hearing about it but it wouldn't surprise me , a similar idea in the Valley has been supported by both parties before.
ETA - Found the related policy document. 1 AM Lockouts. 3 AM stopping service of alcohol. Venues licensed to run to 5 AM can stay open but not serve alcohol after 3 AM. That's not much different to now. They do want to ban high alcohol content drinks after midnight (shots etc) but as far as I know that's not what people usually drink when they are out clubbing. Authorizing police to breath test drunk or disorderly patrons, with the specific intent of fining staff and management, may have negative knock on effects too, the last thing you want is a perverse incentive for management to avoid calling police until someone is actually injured or else be risking a large fine.
Sidenote: Labor is running on some weird shit in certain areas. Single Sex Public Secondary Schools ? (admittedly now that High School is Years 7-12 this isn't automatically a moronic as a standalone proposal)
Dastardly Jerks
Banned
I wish Queenslanders learned to drink properly
bobnowhere
Member
^^ I had no Idea what to say when I saw him say that, he's clearly lost it.
Mal Brough for PM?
For a guy who was clearly elbows deep inside the Peter Slipper Affair, it's ballsey!
Mal Brough for PM?
For a guy who was clearly elbows deep inside the Peter Slipper Affair, it's ballsey!
I don't really care if you have sympathy or not, that is not a goal of mine here
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/que...an-on-track-to-lose-seat-20150128-130bim.html
Don't know why I went in so hard on your posts, apologies for that. Good luck today.
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