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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?
- Thread starter Bernbaum
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Aarglefarg
Member
I saw earlier the first paragraph noting the role of Queensland's election today might play in rolling Abbott if it's particularly bad for the coalition, which would make watching election coverage tonight more interesting.
pewpewpew
Is this a big plan by Abbott to make Brough the opponent so everyone will stick to Abbott?
Elaugaufein
Member
Going by the polls even the probable LNP win is terrible given the swing against them (its ridiculously huge). Abbott's only real saving grace is Newman's (lack of) popularity which means that when Queensland doesn't go from a 7 Seat ALP to an ALP victory, Abbott's supporters will pin the negatives on Newman and claim that the LNP winning is a sign of LNP support. His detractors will claim that the massive swing is at least partially attributed to Abbott. Basically my prediction is so much spinning is coming that we should wrap the Federal Coalition in copper wire and make them stand near magnets.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/que...igures-predict-labor-win-20150131-132tuv.html
Queensland (whole state) exit poll
54 ALP
46 LNP
Queensland (whole state) exit poll
54 ALP
46 LNP
Elaugaufein
Member
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/que...igures-predict-labor-win-20150131-132tuv.html
Queensland (whole state) exit poll
54 ALP
46 LNP
Jesus Christ. If that's accurate there's going to be blood flowing in Coalition meetings.
It should be noted though that non-polling day votes tend to lean conservative (due to their preponderance of rural areas and the elderly), though the higher rate of early voting is chipping away at the advantage these days. But that response is far more than even that would account for.
It's also possible its the Silent Tory effect (ie the LNP are so on the nose people are reluctant to say they voted for them even though they do and the people doing so are actually enough to make for a small majority).4
Don't get me wrong I'm hoping its true but I just want to keep my expectations realistic.
Elaugaufein
Member
I would like to know WHICH 17 electorates that was though (and if the polling method happened to favor urban areas or not). If that swing is coming from their rural strongholds they are doooomed, whereas if its from Labor seats returning to form it means far far less.
exit polls aren't the most reliable but still omg if thats even close *turns on abc24*
from one trainwreck to the next. hope he wins!
bobnowhere
Member
First drink of the night, Antony Greene can't get his screen to work.
Aarglefarg
Member
Antony Green is one of my favourite people.
That news comes quicker than I expected.
Without him elections mean nothing.
bobnowhere
Member
I would have been happy if Campbell was taken out tonight and that's it, but it might get even better!
yeah it looks like nicholls may be fucked too. one of the rare chances to see a minister eat shit on live tv
We don't know the result yet.
But it is definitely a close election for a government that had the largest majority in the history of the state.
We do know that at least 32 libs have lost their job. Regardless of who forms government, that's a result, and it's awesome.
bobnowhere
Member
Saw an amazing Born-to-Rule'r on Sky. Facing a a 15%+ swing against her on a 3.6% margin refuse to concede or even acknowledge the chance of losing.
Aarglefarg
Member
ABC is currently showing
35 LNP
44 ALP
3 OTH
7 unknown
45 is the magic number. I wouldn't be surprised if ALP doesn't win still, but wow.
(36 to 43 now)
(36 to 41 now, I was expecting this to happen before a conclusion was found)
35 LNP
44 ALP
3 OTH
7 unknown
45 is the magic number. I wouldn't be surprised if ALP doesn't win still, but wow.
(36 to 43 now)
(36 to 41 now, I was expecting this to happen before a conclusion was found)
Green seems to believe Labor has a chance of getting 46. Holy moley QLD LNP sure did a fantastic job making everyone hate them.
Isn't really a bad thing considering how New Zealand is right now.
So nice to have Newman gone now. Even if LNP wins, it means we, Queenslanders, have shown LNP in the best way possible that what they are doing is not what we want. Was so satisfying numbering him last in Ashgrove.
Aarglefarg
Member
39 LNP
40 ALP
3 OTH
7 unknown
Things are going more as expected previously.
Newman conceding Ashgrove.
40 ALP
3 OTH
7 unknown
Things are going more as expected previously.
Newman conceding Ashgrove.
More than likely a hung parliament, but we at least have shown LNP that their efforts are not what we want in Queensland.
Great to see Newman gone. That was my main hope.
I live in Brisbane, so some faith in my state has been restored.
I thought it would be close, but I was pessimistic. My feeling was the Libs woul be just in front. Maybe Abbott is even worse than I thought. Is such a thing even possible?
I live in Brisbane, so some faith in my state has been restored.
I thought it would be close, but I was pessimistic. My feeling was the Libs woul be just in front. Maybe Abbott is even worse than I thought. Is such a thing even possible?
Aarglefarg
Member
Labor is ahead in all the seats still in doubt.
Aarglefarg
Member
EDIT: This seemed to be a glitch with ABC or something rather than anything else. 38 to 43 now.
woah it just changed dramatically on ABC
30 LNP
39 ALP
3 OTH
17 Unknown
30 LNP
39 ALP
3 OTH
17 Unknown
Elaugaufein
Member
Oh man. I'm actually starting to feel sympathy for the LNP help me.
I don't understand where this LNP bloke is coming from with his claim that Labor don't have a clear plan. Newman walked into the 2012 election with exactly what Labor is currently doing, in that him and his party just claimed an opposition take (besides saying no asset leasing).
Labor at their previous term form were a party of nine. Nine people. How the fuck does anyone expect them to come out with a proper game plan with only nine people in the party and not having access to specific government stats? This same situation happened with Abbott, and he took forever getting his actual budget and game plan out. All he brought to the election was remove the carbon tax and stop the boats. How the fuck is that a clear game plan?
Labor at their previous term form were a party of nine. Nine people. How the fuck does anyone expect them to come out with a proper game plan with only nine people in the party and not having access to specific government stats? This same situation happened with Abbott, and he took forever getting his actual budget and game plan out. All he brought to the election was remove the carbon tax and stop the boats. How the fuck is that a clear game plan?
CrankyKong
Member
Elaugaufein
Member
It was a clear plan of Ideology uber Alles (and thats exactly what he did once he got in and then he got lambasted for it because people were surprisd). The ALP (like most Anglosphere left-ish) wouldn't dare put forth a position like that.
Since Hewson's loss, there's no politician in Australia that believes a "clear plan" from opposition is a useful strategy. It's a talking point he's regurgitating because it might resonate with some people, but he doesn't believe it himself.
Elaugaufein
Member
how bout now?
That's done it. Now I just need to do something about the urge to punch things.
Elaugaufein
Member
I just don't understand how this happened. The polls yesterday gave them a quite reasonable governing majority in their own right. Its almost like there was some kind of bizarre reversal of the Silent Conservative effect. Did the shaky polls cause people to doubt them more ? Was there a major screwup (other than Australia Day) that I missed ?
It seems like if you do come in with a clear plan you get lambasted heavily and I guess show your cards too early. I just hate how smug he was in beating Swan with it over and over.
Don't underestimate the power of Abbott's clusterfucks to hurt state elections.
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