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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?
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Elaugaufein
Member
I'm not sure that Clusterfuck describes a 4% swing against. Abbott's ability to hurt state governments appears damn near magical.
Even if the PUP dies now Clive will have achieved his goal.
Aarglefarg
Member
ABC predicting ALP majority, 45 to 41. [EDIT: 46 to 40 now]
Federal Coalition getting criticism from their state counterparts.
I would like a Malcolm Turnbull please, he's not as good as he was before by playing along with Abbott but he's still okay I guess.
Federal Coalition getting criticism from their state counterparts.
I would like a Malcolm Turnbull please, he's not as good as he was before by playing along with Abbott but he's still okay I guess.
Yes. Just like all the 'bring back rudd!' stuff during Gillards time at PM.
Howd that work out!?
Elaugaufein
Member
Turnbull probably can't make it. The reason for his higher popularity figures is that he's (much) more popular with people who'd stab themselves before voting Coalition , which isn't actually useful for winning elections or dealing with this party room.
Elaugaufein
Member
Only if you can come up with something wonderful about that one term.
Edit - I'd rather have the Roast back.
The wonderful thing would be it is only one term.
JesseEwiak
Member
Honest question from an American. And since it's 3 AM over here, I might be ramble-y.
Part of the reason for the super right-wing tilt of the GOP in the past few years if we've gone from people who were right-wingers, but also knew how to make deals and how to bullshit the conservative base while not believing all the crazy stuff (a good example of this is Newt Gingrich or hell, even Karl Rove.)
But, the problem for the GOP is we've gone from the snake oil salesmen being in charge to the actual buyers of the snake oil who believe it's working becoming Congressmen, Governor's, and so on.
So, from what I know, Turnbull's closer to the snake oil salesmen type. Or, maybe more like a George H.W. "knows where all the body is buried" type. I guess, my question is, has the Coalition over there actually gone from the snake oil salesmen in charge to the actual customers being in charge?
Wonderfully entertaining? Wonderfully terrible?
Elaugaufein
Member
I'd have to say Turnbull is more like a saner Libertarian in US terms. He's very much right wing economics but he's a wet (so he won't cut spending to the bone in a recession) and not a foaming at the mouth social conservative. He lost the party leadership by 1 vote because he didn't know where enough bodies where buried, so that's not really accurate either (though I suspect he knows where a good few are).
The LNP has never really been dominated as such by its religious faction (though our current PM seems to be an exception but that's because he appears to have time travelled here from some time in the 1800s), the major forces on it are socially conservative rural people (dominant in Queensland mainly) and the business lobby (the primary force in most states). Its just drifted slowly rightward as happened with a chunk of the Anglosphere.
Its easier to see Turnbull as a Libertarian - "fiscally conservative, socially liberal".
I'll try some back of a napkin analogies:
Newman = Rick Scott
Abbott = Rick Santorum/GWB
Turnbull = Romney/Governator
Corey Bernadi = Ted Cruz
In a sense, yes, you are right. Howard and Costello were very much comparable to Reagan and George Bush Snr. Abbott has aways been seen as an extremist. The Queensland conservative parties have always been insane though (look up Joh Bejelke-Peterson).
Hence the Romney comparison
Elaugaufein
Member
I'd have to say the Queensland Liberals haven't historically been much worse than anywhere else. The Nationals are nuts because the situations that bring them to power (which tends to be someone fucking up the electoral system) makes them almost unremovable (because their power base is really concentrated). That does mean Queensland conservatives overall tend to whack though since its the Nationals who tend to dictate policy.
JesseEwiak
Member
Got ya.
Oh, I know about Joh. I fell down some Austraila electoral wiki holes before, and actually followed the Rudd election fairly closely.
One thing I'm still not clear on. I get in general, Abbott is under fire for being an idiot as PM. But, I still don't quite get why the Liberals losing in Queensland makes him even weaker and more apt to be done in.
I mean, a bunch of Republican Governor's won in the latest midterm elections, but if by some miracle, the Dem's would've held on to the Senate, nobody would've cared about Rick Scott or Paul LePage winning reelection as far as it pertained to Obama's political capital.
Is it just that there's fewer states and a smaller population, so each election is a huge deal, or something else I'm missing?
I meant the idea he was a libertarian, he wanted to join Labor. Libs offered him a safe seat with some preselection tomfoolery. Had Labour offered him a seat he would be on the other side of the floor.
He wants to be PM. Thats it.
Elaugaufein
Member
Is both the smaller number of states and that we have a stronger federal government in many ways. There's also much less cultural difference between states (Victoria and Queensland are different but they aren't California and Texas). As such there's
much stronger crossover (federal government fuckups have measurable effects on state elections and state government fuckups also chip away the corresponding Federal vote in that state). I think its also that the smaller number of states mean that there's much more direct party ties too.
Elaugaufein
Member
I'm pretty sure that you can think of at least 3 MPs on Labor's right edge who wouldn't be terribly out of place next too Turnbull on either side of the floor. There's not that much gap between what's left of the Liberal's moderate/left flank and Labor's right edge. Though I'll totally admit that there's not a whole lot of Liberal moderates left.
Aarglefarg
Member
My Malcolm Turnbull comment was more a flippant way of saying that the likelihood of Abbott being replaced went up and also that I'd prefer Turnbull over the other possible replacements. Not really advocating for Abbott to be replaced in that fashion, however interesting it would be. I'd like him to lose the next election.
Dastardly Jerks
Banned
Holy shit, Queensland you surprise me. Pleasantly.
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
It's always so strange voting in state elections and seeing the ballot papers so short. Compared to the Federal election with its enormous senate ballot, it seemed too easy.
I live in a very safe ALP seat, so I threw a bone toward the Greens and put Family First last, like I usually do.
Good to see that the result was an upset. Hopefully Annastasia doesn't embarrass me like Campbell did.
I live in a very safe ALP seat, so I threw a bone toward the Greens and put Family First last, like I usually do.
Good to see that the result was an upset. Hopefully Annastasia doesn't embarrass me like Campbell did.
bobnowhere
Member
Pretty extraordinary result tonight.
There was also a 6% swing against the Libs in the SA by-election in a safe seat making it marginal. Now that could be put down to people getting pissed off at being forced to vote again so soon, but it's still just more bad news for Abbott. His days really are numbered and it couldn't happen to a nicer chap!
There was also a 6% swing against the Libs in the SA by-election in a safe seat making it marginal. Now that could be put down to people getting pissed off at being forced to vote again so soon, but it's still just more bad news for Abbott. His days really are numbered and it couldn't happen to a nicer chap!
Dastardly Jerks
Banned
EDIT: From this article...
There's no actual way Tony steps down. He's too pigheadded.
Dis gun b good.
Elaugaufein
Member
I was wrong about Queensland Labor not having a chance in hell of winning.
(I'm also suitably pleased).
(I'm also suitably pleased).
Candescence
Member
Everyone's pointing to the speech to the National Press Club on Monday as the current 'do or die time', but I'm not sure how the hell it'd be that hard to screw up that kind of speech as long as he ditches the paid parental leave scheme. Then again, Tony's as stubborn as a mule and incredibly thick, so I wouldn't be surprised if he found some way to screw that up, especially since now he needs to make some serious damage control for the disaster in Queensland.
Campbell wasn't a politician, see. Not really. He was an engineer. An army bloke. A guy who wanted to help out. Consequently, his rancid failures don't reflect, and shouldn't impinge, on conservative politics more broadly.
I want to hear from Peter Costello. One of the under-acknowledged architects of this shitheap ex-government.
Elaugaufein
Member
I do wonder how Labor is feeling about that Greens vote. It makes them look bad on the primary count but it delivers incredibly consistently on the preferences (especially for OPV). Its also not really threatening to them in Queensland at least (the only area the Greens beat Labor is Noosa and that's a safe Liberal seat, so even if the Greens somehow took it Labor benefits).
ETA - Came to mind particularly because Prentice was making pretty clear environmental overtures, on ABC. Its interesting that the LNP are eyeing that chunk of votes as a potential Labor weakness. I don't think they stand much chance of making much of it though, there's just too much of a gap on pretty much everything.
ETA - Came to mind particularly because Prentice was making pretty clear environmental overtures, on ABC. Its interesting that the LNP are eyeing that chunk of votes as a potential Labor weakness. I don't think they stand much chance of making much of it though, there's just too much of a gap on pretty much everything.
Candescence
Member
Speaking of Costello, he and ol' Johnny Howard are the how-too guide for squandering an unprecedented mining boom. At least the previous government tried to at least get some revenue out of it, even if the mining tax was poorly implemented. Howard's goverment will probably be recognized as one of the worst governments of the tail end of the 20th century/early 21st, because what they did just caused problems for their successors.
If there's anyone Abbot should be blaming for the 'debt blowout', it's Howard. If Howard had actually taken advantage of the revenue potential, there wouldn't be any debt to speak of, surpluses as far as the eye can see.
If there's anyone Abbot should be blaming for the 'debt blowout', it's Howard. If Howard had actually taken advantage of the revenue potential, there wouldn't be any debt to speak of, surpluses as far as the eye can see.
Congrats to those that took a punt!
Well shit today is going to be one nonstop party - lnp lost, we won the soccer and hopefully will be having some iced coffee tomorrow! I love iced coffee!
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
Their principles are so self-evidently right that they should require no explanations.
Colour me surprised, incredible effort by qld/labor. Labor win the election (and maybe a slim majority) and Aus win the Asian cup, great weekend
All good mate, no harm done, it is politics after all
All good mate, no harm done, it is politics after all
Yeah. But at the same time nobody's had the guts to try to fix the gaping holes in the tax code they left behind and the longer that goes on the more everyone gets to share the blame.
CrazedProfessional
Member
I know I don't post here much but being a Queenslander was a great experience last night and watching Antony Green melt down on the statistics was utterly stunning.
"These preference flows, the statistics, Ashgrove!"
"These preference flows, the statistics, Ashgrove!"
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A More Normal Bird
Unconfirmed Member
Last night I had a dream where following the result in QLD Rudd was parachuted into a safe seat and installed as leader... of the Federal Liberals. Turnbull was his deputy, and the polls gave them a slight lead over Labor. It was hilarious.
The ironing.
Even economists are economical illiterates. They helped cause the gfc.
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A More Normal Bird
Unconfirmed Member
#NotallEconomists
Well not all. I'm sure there are a handful of them who dont advocate the public pay for the debts of maladministrated private corporations.
bobnowhere
Member
Assuming Abbott lasts till March, which lets face it is unlikely, I wonder if he will be politely asked to not go to NSW during their state election. Of course being from NSW himself will make it awkward.
That's assuming that the GFC wasn't their goal. *tinfoilhat*
I just checked, there are no perfect rational actors at the 4H Club either
Ollie Pooch
In a perfect world, we'd all be homersexual
LOL.
The first thing i texted to my mate this morning on reading the news. I couldn't stand that smug asshole. I'l never forget repealing the same-sex union laws in his first days in office - so aggressive and said it all about what type of person he is. Seeya!
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