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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?

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Quasar

Member
Saw the first election ads this morning from the Nurses and Midwives union saying that Baird was going to sell off the hospitals and liver transplants will cost 1.5mil or so. They are one of the most militant unions, but it's clear what platform Labor will run on. No asset sales and Abbott is an idiot. Worked quite well in QLD.

And save TAFE. Thats already come up a fair bit.
 

Dead Man

Member
He's John Elliott's (pigs arse, if you remember Fast Forward, and president of Carlton Football Club) son. He's horrific to listen to on the radio, I honestly can't believe 3AW ditched Derryn Hinch for him :/

Saw him on that stupid grumpy show, where they have middle aged people bitching about stupid stuff, he was on there with his dad and made senior look like a wonderful human being.

Utter wanker.
 

Shaneus

Member
Saw him on that stupid grumpy show, where they have middle aged people bitching about stupid stuff, he was on there with his dad and made senior look like a wonderful human being.

Utter wanker.
Yes. That he is, and that show did a wonderful job of showcasing it.
 
I'm starting to think tomorrow might be closer than we think. First the Japanese PM said that a change of leadership would affect them selling subs to Aus. Clearly the subs were a palm greasing to get the free trade agreement across the line and with Joe saying in December there wasn't time for a tender, those SA jobs were clearly gone.

Now the PM is saying the SA builders will be able to tender for the subs in a message to Sen. Edwards(LIB) from SA. Now we know Abbott changes his opinions like a weather-vane, but damn it must be close for him to change at this late date. Does show how much he cares about SA and the 1000's of jobs that only seem to serve his personal ambitions.

https://twitter.com/alicemonfries/status/564305466302275584
 

wonzo

Banned
bishops really the only one that can lead the libs to victory and i'm really surprised people think the man behind UTEGATE has the competency to run anything, let alone a political party to victory

in the slim chance the spill fails to get the numbers tomorrow i really can't see tone helping the alp in nsw all that much.
 

Quasar

Member
bishops really the only one that can lead the libs to victory and i'm really surprised people think the man behind UTEGATE has the competency to run anything, let alone a political party to victory

He can read his prepared speeches and make coherent arguments at least.
 

legend166

Member
I find it incredibly difficult to believe Labor has any chance in NSW. I'd say a majority of the state don't know who the Labor leader is.
 

Jintor

Member
I find it incredibly difficult to believe Labor has any chance in NSW. I'd say a majority of the state don't know who the Labor leader is.

I think this past decade in Aussie politics has proven that you don't even really need to be known or a good option, you just need to be not the other guy
 

Fredescu

Member
Two months out from the NSW election and a poll from today has the Libs ahead 56/44 2PP. QLD was a shock but the polls were way closer than that.
 

Dryk

Member
It's a strange position they're in. The longer they keep Abbott the further they'll sink, but if they turf him now they'll suffer a hit in the polls for that, then a further hit closer to the election when people realise that nothing has actually changed.

But is keeping him at the front for another 1.5 years just so people don't realise he's more representative than they think worth the damage he'll do to them in that time?
 

hidys

Member
I think this past decade in Aussie politics has proven that you don't even really need to be known or a good option, you just need to be not the other guy

In truth you have to so a little better than be "not that guy" to win in this election in NSW. But Labor dies need to win back a number of their old seats to be competitive in future.
 

D.Lo

Member
I find it incredibly difficult to believe Labor has any chance in NSW. I'd say a majority of the state don't know who the Labor leader is.
It's Julian Morrow from The Chaser!

Doesn't mean much at a state level. State opposition leaders are almost always invisible until an election campaign, or if they do something stupid (e.g. Brogden).
 

hidys

Member
So according to David Speers Abbott backers are saying 60-40 to them. Turnbull backers think they can get 50-50.

Also rumours are that the latest Newspoll is 59-41 which is pretty crazy.
 

Yagharek

Member
He's John Elliott's (pigs arse, if you remember Fast Forward, and president of Carlton Football Club) son. He's horrific to listen to on the radio, I honestly can't believe 3AW ditched Derryn Hinch for him :/

Nothing surprises me any more. If you want to be known on radio, be an obnoxious, racist, libertarian cunt.
 
So according to David Speers Abbott backers are saying 60-40 to them. Turnbull backers think they can get 50-50.

Also rumours are that the latest Newspoll is 59-41 which is pretty crazy.

Not quite:

57-43 2PP to Labor
Primaries: Coalition 35, Labor 41, Greens 12, Others 12
Better PM: Abbott 30, Shorten 48
Abbott: Satisfied 24, Dissatisfied 68
Shorten: Satisfied 42, Dissatisfied 40

Best to Lead Liberals:
Abbott 25, Turnbull 64
Abbott: 27, Bishop 59
Turnbull 49, Bishop 38

Feb 6-8, 1178 sample

UPDATE: For context, the final Newspoll of 2014, conducted from December 12-14, were as follows:

54-46 to Labor
Primaries: Coalition 38, Labor 39, Greens 12
Better PM: Abbott 37, Shorten 44
Abbott: Satisfied 33, Dissatisfied 58
Shorten: Satisfied 37, Dissatisfied 43

Considering it now agrees with Galaxy and Newspoll has always been more conservative, the next Galaxy could be 60-40!

I wouldn't be surprised it the backbenchers attend the meeting tomorrow with rolled up copies of The Australian with iron bars inside and beat Abbott out of office. Again all this couldn't possible happen to a nicer bloke!
 

hidys

Member
Not quite:



Considering it now agrees with Galaxy and Newspoll has always been more conservative, the next Galaxy could be 60-40!

I wouldn't be surprised it the backbenchers attend the meeting tomorrow with rolled up copies of The Australian with iron bars inside and beat Abbott out of office. Again all this couldn't possible happen to a nicer bloke!

Yep journalists giving newspoll rumours are pricks. DAMN THEM! Burt that is still bad for Abbott but I still think he'll hang on tomorrow unless some frontbenchers are willing to risk their jobs.

Though my ultimate dream is that it is either a tie or one vote either way that would be awesome.

Also the Newspoll Wikipedia article has been updated to include Abbott's polling in a historical context (hint: it's bad).

So who will be watching ABC24 tomorrow morning.
 
Also the Newspoll Wikipedia article has been updated to include Abbott's polling in a historical context (hint: it's bad).
Also noteworthy, regarding ratings for "Better Prime Minister" ranked among opposition leaders: "Malcolm Turnbull recorded the equal-second lowest, with 14% (27–29 November 2009)."

Among Prime Ministers on the same "Better Prime Minister" measure: "Tony Abbott has the second-lowest career-low "Better Prime Minister" score with 30% (6-8 February 2015)."

Though I realise after that these are comparisons to Rudd 09 and Shorten 15 respectively so it isn't a fair comparison.

So who will be watching ABC24 tomorrow morning.
I will, my alarm is set for 6am but I'll catch a little coverage on my phone as I'll be heading to work when it's all expected to happen. I have Tuesdays off so I was looking forward to watching the vote coverage being on Tuesday but Abbott went and spoiled it for me. This is the last straw!
 
I'm starting to think tomorrow might be closer than we think. First the Japanese PM said that a change of leadership would affect them selling subs to Aus. Clearly the subs were a palm greasing to get the free trade agreement across the line and with Joe saying in December there wasn't time for a tender, those SA jobs were clearly gone.

Now the PM is saying the SA builders will be able to tender for the subs in a message to Sen. Edwards(LIB) from SA. Now we know Abbott changes his opinions like a weather-vane, but damn it must be close for him to change at this late date. Does show how much he cares about SA and the 1000's of jobs that only seem to serve his personal ambitions.

https://twitter.com/alicemonfries/status/564305466302275584

This stuck out to me in ABCs interview with Abbott this arvo. (starts at 1:30)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-08/tony-abbott-says-spill-motion-a-chastening/6078560

This reeks of Tony essentially buttering up a certain section of his own party room to help shore up numbers. He is essentially changing policy for votes, except this time instead of for the taxpayer and the voting public, but for the party room...

He really needs to go. He is great to laugh at and everything but he could be doing this for months if he holds onto power now everytime someone mentions leadership challenge. Imagine what he would offer some of his party room if he survived this spill and another came up down the road?
 

Rubixcuba

Banned
Well 10 minutes to go!

I'm not sure if the spill will get up, but if its say a 60-40 split can't see leadership questions going away.
 

lexi

Banned
You have to be trusted by the people that you lie to, so that when they turn their back on you, you'll get the chance to put the knife in.
 

Rubixcuba

Banned
ABC reporting ballot being counted. Speculate that the longer it takes for an announcement, the greater likelihood that spill has succeeded.
 

lexi

Banned
Slimmer majority then Gillard in 2012. So much for stability.

I'm going to enjoy the continuing rout in the polls.
 

markot

Banned
Damnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn, he is kind of screwed. 39 votes against, he is the walking dead.

39 votes against without a contender too.
 
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