http://www.afr.com/news/politics/abbott-government-rocked-by-gay-marriage-fight-20150811-giwhe0?stb=twt
Abbott giving press conference now, on ABC 24.
AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?
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http://www.afr.com/news/politics/abbott-government-rocked-by-gay-marriage-fight-20150811-giwhe0?stb=twt
Abbott giving press conference now, on ABC 24.
Interesting, six MPs are already threatening to cross the floor, and it took six hours to sort out.
Plus, it seems Ministers seem mostly to be the ones pushing for the free vote, putting them, as Malcolm Turnbull puts in a bad position. Hockey and Bishop want to kick the can down the road with a plebiscite after the next election, but I'm guessing Bill Shorten won't let up on that; the ads write themselves;
"I already hear you" etc
Julie Bishop and Scott Morrison both voted against it, and they'd have to be the two favourites to replace Abbott. I think most of those 33 would prefer to keep their chances at future promotion in tact rather than fall on their sword for some thing like this. So, I reckon probably no.
Can't cover the gap then (assuming they've got the count right).
Looks like it's an election issue then!
Aarglefarg
Member
Oh goodie. I can't wait for a nasty, drawn-out, stressful referendum campaign.
It won't go to a referendum or plebiscite methinks.
This is a desperate, last ditch tactic to try and pass the buck onto the voting public from a Prime Minister desperately trying to please everyone at once, and failing quite spectacularly.
Turnbull apparently said they've given them a stick to Shorten to beat them with every day, and he's right.
This is a desperate, last ditch tactic to try and pass the buck onto the voting public from a Prime Minister desperately trying to please everyone at once, and failing quite spectacularly.
Turnbull apparently said they've given them a stick to Shorten to beat them with every day, and he's right.
bobnowhere
Member
Well that's something.
Amazing how they think this will end it, we'll totally hold a plebiscite after the next election. Momentum is running and it's about to run right over Abbott's Prime Ministership.
I think it demonstrates the extent to which this fucking blindsided him.
It really is something for a leader to simply go "I have no idea; why don't you guys decide at some point".
Given how he was MIA on the Bishop thing, he really seems like he doesn't want to be PM anymore.
30yearsofhurt
Member
Ironically the last thing labour want now is for same-sex marriage to pass parliament in this term. This sort of issue can completely drown out everything else that may happen in the next twelve months.
As much as I despise the twat, can't blame anyone for that sentiment
Media can only repeat a talking point for so long.
Doesn't have to be constant.
Look how much damage this issue has done over the past 12 months to the Coalition. It can just flare up every few months.
Well..whats the point if the constitution does not need to be changed?
That's why it makes more sense as an empty promise.
I'd say it's more to do with everything else the government has been doing.
bobnowhere
Member
It would be quite funny if he wasn't the PM, it's now just getting sad. At this point, flipping a coin would provide far better leadership, Abbott seems to get it wrong every time. Abbott looks like a guy who desperately wanted to be PM, but didn't know why. A bit like Shorten really.
I really believe Abbott and his backers though it would be easy, 3-4 terms to enact their maddness. Backed by a pliant media they could disappear into the background and not have to answer any questions. Remember at the start of his term, Abbott just disappeared! Coupled with the fact the he just couldn't stop being the opposition attack dog all we have now is a small angry man with a ridiculous comb-over.
Say what you will about Howard, but he had political nous and was very good at reading the mood of the electorate and at time bending it to his will. Howard was also surrounded by many canny operators and managed to win probably 2 elections by all right he shouldn't have. The current clowns are the leftovers from the Howard era, now in charge and with no idea.
30yearsofhurt
Member
It doesn't really do damage in and of itself. Not many who voted for the coalition are going to change their vote based on this.
But it does suck up air time and valuable minutes on the airwaves.
Those are minutes that they need to sell themselves to a swinging public that have just about stopped listening to them.
If anything this raises the possibility of a Turnbull challenge significantly.
The party room ambush today has got a lot of people in the caucus offside.
They know Turnbull can win the next election with or without SSM being an issue.
Abbott can't.
But it does suck up air time and valuable minutes on the airwaves.
Those are minutes that they need to sell themselves to a swinging public that have just about stopped listening to them.
If anything this raises the possibility of a Turnbull challenge significantly.
The party room ambush today has got a lot of people in the caucus offside.
They know Turnbull can win the next election with or without SSM being an issue.
Abbott can't.
I'm just laughing at the fact that for weeks, fucking weeks, during the Parliamentary recess, Abbott and his cohort have been defending parliamentary entitlements and benefits with the rhetoric that it's a hard job representing the Australian people and they need all the help and support they can get to do their very, difficult important work.
And fucking first thing that comes onto their plate that might be remotely difficult or involve something they might not want to do but the community wants them to do, they shriek and run away and make weak noises about how the public need to sort it out (and pay for it naturally) sometime around the next Olympics.
You couldn't make this shit up.
Abbott has always looked like he wanted power for its own sake and hadn't thought about what he'd actually do with it
30yearsofhurt
Member
It's not just the leaders that are the main problem.
The main parties are run by grown up student politicians who are all beholden to their backers.
Whether it's the more archaic unions that bankroll labour or the business and religious groups that fund the Liberals everyone pays the piper.
Totally. He wanted the job and title but not the responsibility.
The only possible compliment I can give Shorten over Abbott right now is I suspect he'd be more of a weather vane and not impede popular decisions on ideological grounds like we saw Abbott do tonight.
Candescence
Member
At least Labor have actual good policies now, even if they've gone with turn-backs. I've noticed commentators have been saying lately that the government is almost literally doing absolutely nothing, mainly due to being paralysed by their own unpopularity.
Today is going to be a fun day if the logic somersaults of this mornings doorstops is any indication. Amazing.
Also can't tell if Abbott wants a referendum or plebiscite. The first is not required in my brief understanding, but yeah. Good way to make sure it doesn't pass I guess.
Also can't tell if Abbott wants a referendum or plebiscite. The first is not required in my brief understanding, but yeah. Good way to make sure it doesn't pass I guess.
At least the world's aware:
Whoever posted this earlier was right, but I hope this doesn't get through with this government. Because it means they will get absolutely slaughtered at the next election.
I think it was via the AEC or something but a blurb I read on Twitter last night said a single-platform/issue plebiscite would cost around $112m. Libs would find a way to shirk having one by mentioning the cost of it, guaranteed.
Whoever posted this earlier was right, but I hope this doesn't get through with this government. Because it means they will get absolutely slaughtered at the next election.
i mean... we do. all the time
Yeah a vague promise of a plebiscite or referendum (that the two words are being used interchangibly by Cabinet ministers show you how nascent this thinking is) will not stop this being an election issue, especially since Abbott promises aren't exactly going to be viewed as rock solid next election.
There have only been 3 national plebiscites in Australia. 3.
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliam...une/A_quick_guide_to_plebiscites_in_Australia
1916: military service conscription (defeated)
1917: reinforcement of the Australian Imperial Force overseas (defeated)
1977: choice of Australias national anthem ('Advance Australia Fair' preferred.)
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliam...une/A_quick_guide_to_plebiscites_in_Australia
1916: military service conscription (defeated)
1917: reinforcement of the Australian Imperial Force overseas (defeated)
1977: choice of Australias national anthem ('Advance Australia Fair' preferred.)
30yearsofhurt
Member
And the anthem wasn't changed until Hawke got in in 83. Hell I remember the National Country Party were still singing God Save the Queen (a German song) at their conferences as late as 89.
Appeal to tradition and appeal to novelty are both fallacies, but hardly anyone seems to understand that
What a coincidence. People don't really want him to be either.
bobnowhere
Member
Only on Capital Hill. The other 374k or so of us are doing just fine and by any measure better than most!
Looks like the line is going to be the Coalition are going to allow the people to decide, not at the next election, but sometime off in the never-never while the evil ALP are going to force it down your throat full on dictator style. Even though all polls say 70%+ support it backbenchers are out this morning saying that it's actually less than 50% based on "talking to their electorate", anecdotal evidence, made up BS etc... Abbott and co. have completely lost all ability to set the agenda and I'm loving the show.
I suspect it's in the water actually.
30yearsofhurt
Member
2611 reprezentin here boizzzz.
Sure that wasn't the English version?
Yeah, I'm pretty much over getting upset about their decisions and just basking in their floundering. Obviously I'm still disappointed and sympathetic towards the causes they shun (renewable energy, same-sex marriage, internets, CSIRO/science/other funding etc.) but while I'm in a position to do nothing about it, I'mma grab the popcorn and watch this Titanic government dig it's own grave.
A
A More Normal Bird
Unconfirmed Member
As a strong advocate of the Government burying money and paying people to dig it up to stimulate the economy, I can't wait to hear what's coming on this front. Either a vote goes ahead because it must be the will of the people, or it doesn't because it'd be too expensive, but either way they'll be saying that in the case of this policy - which can be enacted solely by elected representatives and which any statistician would confidently say has majority public support - it's absolutely essential that hundreds of millions be spent to run a plebiscite or referendum, "more pressing issues" and budget emergencies be damned.
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