The only shot I can see Labor having is that Canning dislikes Turnbull to the extent that enough Liberal supporters protest or donkey vote.
But I wouldn't hold my breath.
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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?
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The only shot I can see Labor having is that Canning dislikes Turnbull to the extent that enough Liberal supporters protest or donkey vote.
But I wouldn't hold my breath.
It's always been leaning quite comfortably to the Libs and I can't see that changing.
Shorten might need someone to watch him tonight.
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6...rnbull-shorten-september-15-2015-201509150557
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6...rnbull-shorten-september-15-2015-201509150557
D.Lo
Member
Holy shit
Elaugaufein
Member
Hmmm. It's worth noting that's better PM not preferred PM. And it's probably pretty accurate given that you need a spelunking team and 12 months to find traces of Shorten's personality or policies. The preferred PM is probably more favourable less unfavourable to Shorten.
The economic argument in favour of taking refugees:
http://www.afr.com/news/economy/the...ur-of-taking-refugees-20150914-gjm6bt?stb=twt
Hurray for "demand side" arguments in the mainstream media.
http://www.afr.com/news/economy/the...ur-of-taking-refugees-20150914-gjm6bt?stb=twt
Hurray for "demand side" arguments in the mainstream media.
bobnowhere
Member
Hell of a poll bump. Has to be the equivalent of going on your honeymoon and three Victoria's Secret supermodels coming along as well.
2PP will be interesting, I imagine they are all polling feverishly right about now. But if what already appears to be the case that Turnbull keeps the same economic policy and betrays his own social progressivism just to be PM he'll still lose the next election to Bent Spoontits.
2PP will be interesting, I imagine they are all polling feverishly right about now. But if what already appears to be the case that Turnbull keeps the same economic policy and betrays his own social progressivism just to be PM he'll still lose the next election to Bent Spoontits.
A
A More Normal Bird
Unconfirmed Member
PPM or w/e haven't really meant much when it comes to electoral success, hopefully these numbers scare the shit outta Shorten into getting his act together
or people in the party doing it for him.
LibDems & Family First must be utterly amused at the moment.
Translation: who is going to repeal 18C so I can say nasty things about Aborigines now?
Elaugaufein
Member
I think Shorten will get a little while since he did bring a PM down*. So he'll probably be okay unless things continue looking bad for the next couple of months (or rumours of DD/early elections intensify while Labor sits significantly behind in 2PP polls).
*Or at least didn't stop a PM bringing himself down but that's good enough.
Its think Turnbull would be a better PM, not prefer as PM. But there's also not a lot of love for Shorten from Greens voters given that he's consistently folded like wet tissue on several issues that they care about (sometimes adding insult to injury by taking a principle stance for about 72 hours first). I really wouldn't expect many of them to preference the Coalition over Labor though.
Elaugaufein
Member
rip good government
I really don't get the Nationals at times. They support farmers and graziers who are getting completely boned by climate change, ain't big on Coal Mines / Natural Gas that tends to screw up farmland but are extremely anti doing anything about any of that.
rip good government
Good.
It's not like the environment or climate or planet matter!
Elaugaufein
Member
That part I get. Super socially conservative stuff like that is something that's *entirely* consistent with the beliefs and interests of their electorate.
Mining is the only source of funds they have left as all the other groups are latching onto Liberal/Country Labor/Greens.
Box of Bunnies
Banned
Those things are far less important than getting rid of taxation. We can just trust the free market to regulate itself instead of destroying the planet in the name of profit.
Arksy's stance with regards to ETS is that we should maintain the status quo until the world adopts some sort of world wide system so that we're not theoretically knee capping ourselves in a world that doesn't give a shit.
Of course there are other benefits ETS brings about that aren't quite related to climate change but I always get the impression he's ideologically against a lot of things based on whatever principals he holds.
No they think he's basically a communist, can confirm. Righties use "lefty" as a slur in the exact same way that lefties use "righty" as a slur.
Well I didn't really want to respond to straw man trolling, but since I don't want more reasonable people to misunderstand I guess I should clear it up a little.
The carbon tax was going to have a negligible (even using the word negligible is generous) impact on climate change given we don't emit much (despite our high output per capita) so I thought it was lunacy to hamstring our entire economy for a system that wouldn't achieve the result they were after. (Fairly regressive as well, hence why Labor increased welfare as a response to the tax). That said, if everyone else in the world decides to implement an ETS I'd absolutely want to join in, because my two objections (the fact that it put us at an economic disadvantage, and that it wouldn't do anything) would fall to the wayside.
I've debated this already a bunch of times here, and good points were made by people who disagreed but my position remains mostly unchanged.
shanshan310
Member
lol, well I guess when you're that conservative everyone looks left.
The use of those terms as slurs is all a bit silly though isn't it.
Drives me up the wall. The terms left-wing and right-wing are so vague as to basically be rendered meaningless.
People in England thought that Ed Miliband was the most left-wing Labour leader in decades, while people in Scotland thought he was a Tory.
Wasn't really trying to straw man troll but thanks for elaborating. I'm not being sarcastic here, what I said was the gist of what I remember of your stance. That is to say you're not inherently against a ETS but rather you don't believe it will do shit all if no one else does it.
Oh no I didn't mean you!.....I meant the people who think that being against a carbon tax means you want the world to burn.
Elaugaufein
Member
I can honestly say, I've never heard anyone accusing Bill Shorten of being a Fascist using the term Right-Winger. I don't think I've even heard him being called a Righty outside of the context of his position in the Labor Party. To some extent that's probably because being on the Right side of the Labor party carries more negative connotations to a leftie than being on the Left side of the Liberals for the right.
Yeah. But that's hardly unexpected. Its the same platform with a nicer face. Its why I don't get Turnbulls popularity.
You and I have been over this ground in the past before, so I'm not going in again, but this feels like a version of that relative privation thing we were talking about earlier. "We shouldn't do anything until everything is perfect elsewhere". It's just an excuse not to act really.
Dastardly Jerks
Banned
That's pretty much the only "insult" the UPF know.
That's a thing that happens?
Absolutely. And even pidgeonholing people into something so black and white is foolish.
I am curious...I don't think I've ever heard 'righty' used before.
I didn't mean 'righty' as in that particular term...but I see "right-wing" used a slur or a way to demean or discredit people all the time. The right definitely do it as well. "Communist" was a really common one. I don't really want to start a war on what terms people use and what frequency they do it at but just wanted to say that they're all stupid.
A very prominent member of the YL dry faction went on facebook yesterday to say that "If you support Turnbull you support redistributive taxes and gay marraige and you're not a liberal, you're left wing."
Which obviously started a facebook war with the YL wets with people arguing over the definition of broad in the term "broad church." and posting articles about Turnbull thinking about joining the ALP which was responded to by people posting articles about Abbott basically thinking about the same thing.
It was pathetic.
A very prominent member of the YL dry faction went on facebook yesterday to say that "If you support Turnbull you support redistributive taxes and gay marraige and you're not a liberal, you're left wing."
Which obviously started a facebook war with the YL wets with people arguing over the definition of broad in the term "broad church." and posting articles about Turnbull thinking about joining the ALP which was responded to by people posting articles about Abbott basically thinking about the same thing.
It was pathetic.
I find they're often used an excuse not to engage someone's (probably complex) arguments on it's merits. It's much easier to throw everyone into two buckets and attack the bucket you're not in. It's why engagement with people you disagree with can be difficult, a lot of peoples political opinions consist entirely of fear of the other bucket, and anyone that doesn't fit neatly into that bucket is assumed to be disingenuous. "If I concede your point, I'll have to get in your bucket!"
You mean, like how we should help all of our own homeless, every last one, until we even begin to contemplate taking on refugees?
Yeah, Turnbull may have made a deal with the devil there. Every poll indicates Australians want the government to do more about climate change. Half the reason he's been so popular I'd wager is because of his past policies on climate change and same sex marriage out of step with the Coalition generally. If those are both neutralized to placate the Nationals it may be a very, very tough battle ahead for him to build public trust, and Bill Shorten might have the issues he needs to torpedo any momentum.
Alan Jones...?
Alan Jones...?
bobnowhere
Member
I reckon there are 3 ways Turnbull can go:
Seeing 2 and 3 atm, not any 1.
Disaffected ex-national country independents? Hell the greens won a couple of seats off the Nats in the NSW state election. Once the really old national voters die off, the National Party could die off. In fact the Libs should have put them out of their misery a while ago, a completely useless group of thickshits.
- Turnbull through shear force of will or ego drags the party to the centre and basically does what he wants. Could be a spectacular success and he reigns for a decade or an equally spectacular failure.
- He parks himself squarely on the fence between the small 'l' and big 'C' parts of the party muddles on and maybe wins the next election but never really becomes a PM of note.
- Repackages the same old shit, completely ignores his socially progressive side and ends up becoming a joke who sold out.
Seeing 2 and 3 atm, not any 1.
Disaffected ex-national country independents? Hell the greens won a couple of seats off the Nats in the NSW state election. Once the really old national voters die off, the National Party could die off. In fact the Libs should have put them out of their misery a while ago, a completely useless group of thickshits.
The free market has a pretty good track record of accounting for negative externalities don't you know
"Andrew Bolt raises prospect of Cory Bernardi as leader of new conservative party" http://www.canberratimes.com.au/ent...ive-party-on-the-project-20150915-gjngrt.html
Morrison takes next step towards leadership. Jokes about Hockey's communication skills, but it probably suits him since it's probably harder to inadvertently insult people while discussing communication policy. Surprised he got a ministry at all though. Guess Turnbull has to keep some friends around.
A lot is made of Morrison by the press and Party, mostly for his role in stopping the boats and ability to see boom mics, but I wonder how he'll do when he can't hide behind operational matters as Treasurer.
The few times he's talked to the media as Minister for Social Services he's made Hockey look gentle.
The few times he's talked to the media as Minister for Social Services he's made Hockey look gentle.
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