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[Shaneus]

Holy shit.

https://twitter.com/sspencer_63/status/644057602477830144

I'd be keen to go in, my subs been lapsed for a bit over 6 months now and I've been really missing quality Australian political journalism.

Cool! I'll see if anyone else here wants to go in. But I think I'd get more value out of it than not. $10 a month for quality articles is a steal, far better than any of the digital newspapers.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I'm wondering, anyone else be interested in a group, yearly Crikey sub? Regular price is $189 for a year, but even with three people there's shitloads to be saved:

I'm in the same sitch as Fredescu.

 

[r1chard]

How much control does Turnbull actually have over this? Is it introduced by him, or by the cabinet member responsible? I seem to be getting conflicting answers to this elsewhere.

I think you're missing my point - which is that a bunch of soft Labor voters decided Turnbull would be their guy, and on his first day of actually doing anything he's pretty much proven that not to be the case. Whether it's his call or not, thinking Turnbull would somehow bring any sort of sanity to the Coalition (from a lefty point of view, Arksy is just wishful thinking.

 

[wonzo]

Holy shit.

https://twitter.com/sspencer_63/stat...57602477830144

wasnt expecting his ego to blow up again so soon. lmao

 

[wonzo]

@GhostWhoVotes
#ReachTEL Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (+3) ALP 50 (-3) #auspol

sample taken last night. was expecting a much bigger jump tbh

 

[bobnowhere]

Lol, beat me by to it.

I was expecting a bigger bounce as well especially as ReachTEL's robo-calling only targets land lines resulting in an anticipated Coalition bias.

 

[Mr. Tone]

I'm wondering, anyone else be interested in a group, yearly Crikey sub? Regular price is $189 for a year, but even with three people there's shitloads to be saved:

I'm interested.

 

[wonzo]

seems racist shit hit the fan in bendigo

 

[Fredescu]

sample taken last night. was expecting a much bigger jump tbh

The primary vote is interesting too.

#ReachTEL Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 43.3 (+3.0) ALP 35.9 (-1.6) GRN 11.9 (-1.5) #auspol

Votes coming equally from Labor and Greens.

 

[Elaugaufein]

"Andrew Bolt raises prospect of Cory Bernardi as leader of new conservative party" http://www.canberratimes.com.au/ent...ive-party-on-the-project-20150915-gjngrt.html

Wow. That could well do it. Everything that makes Bernadi appalling to us would make him incredibly appealing to that group It could well decimate the Nationals and suck the oxygen out of One Nation / Reclaim / etc, as well as suck up a chunk of the Liberal's vote. Not sure how long it would last though. They'd still be sharing the same vote and that means they'd have to join a Coalition agreement to do anything, which would almost certainly be viewed as selling out and lead to an implosion (like what happened with the KAP).

sample taken last night. was expecting a much bigger jump tbh

Probably would have gotten it, if the policy news hadn't followed so quickly and likely dissolved a significant chunk of soft support.

 

[Elaugaufein]

The primary vote is interesting too.

#ReachTEL Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 43.3 (+3.0) ALP 35.9 (-1.6) GRN 11.9 (-1.5) #auspol

Votes coming equally from Labor and Greens.

I really wish I could work out how *that* works.
Only have 2 theories:
I could see it being based on same-sex marriage support /ETS but he's said he's not doing either of those things.
or
Normal Liberals / Liberal leaning swing voters / swing voters using the Greens as a protest vote against Abbott ? Though you'd think that would have largely stopped by this point given the usual Liberal ads that paint the Greens as Super-Labor / Communists .

 

[Fredescu]

I've met people who are equal parts environmentally conscious and fearful of Labor in charge of the economy. There are great swathes of society that have nothing to do with unions, professionals and the like, so Labor just don't enter the equation for them.

 

[Arksy]

I've met people who are equal parts environmentally conscious and fearful of Labor in charge of the economy. There are great swathes of society that have nothing to do with unions, professionals and the like, so Labor just don't enter the equation for them.

Union membership was actually quite high in years past. It's quite interesting that the membership of unions currency is so damn low.

 

[Tommy DJ]

People love Malcolm Turnbull because they think he's financially sensible and knowledgeable (read: he's rich as fuck and people wish they were him) so he's good for the economy. But he's also the sort of guy that doesn't tell you that same sex marriage is equivalent to bestiality (read: he says shit that makes you feel good about him).

He's basically the sort of guy that grammar school kids would vote. He's also popular with the technocracy crowd that hang around Whirlpool because he's somehow seen as the guy who introduced the internet to Australia and understands it better than anyone else.

I dunno if that crowd still believes that, considering how hard his department fucked the NBN, but there are more than a few people who hold a very optimistic view that it was all Abbott's fault and Malcolm will make everything right again.

Most engineers I went to university with would fall in either of these two categories.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I've met people who are equal parts environmentally conscious and fearful of Labor in charge of the economy. There are great swathes of society that have nothing to do with unions, professionals and the like, so Labor just don't enter the equation for them.

So what you're saying is that they've never actually looked at any part of the Greens (or Labors*?) economic policy. Because if you think Labor's (weak) disagreements with neoliberal orthodoxy are going to tank the economy you should think the Greens are Ayn Rand villains.

*I've certainly met people terrified of Labor being in charge of the economy who basically agree with ~all of Labor's economic policy when asked about the points individually.

 

[hidys]

Union membership was actually quite high in years past. It's quite interesting that the membership of unions currency is so damn low.

Yep and that's mostly due to the Liberals.

 

[wonzo]

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-po...frydenberg-20150916-gjnz42.html#ixzz3ltcfyloI

Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has raised the prospect of the Turnbull government taking an increase in the goods and services tax to the next election.

preemptive rip

 

[Elaugaufein]

It's interesting how the taxes that are easiest to collect / hardest to dodge are almosr always effectively regressive. I mean I can see why: almost by definition they are short term necessities and thus a greater share of your income the lower it gets.

 

[danm999]

Hmm honestly expected a bigger bump on 2PP but ruling out the two biggest draws of Turnbull to centre/left voters (SSM and climate change) and it might still be a horse race.

 

[Fredescu]

So what you're saying is that they've never actually looked at any part of the Greens (or Labors*?) economic policy. Because if you think Labor's (weak) disagreements with neoliberal orthodoxy are going to tank the economy you should think the Greens are Ayn Rand villains.

Thinking that a party is going to do what they say they're going to do would be regarded as a novel approach, but it's less about rational analysis and more about managing your fears. Think the planet is going to boil? Vote Green. Think the economy is going to tank? Vote Liberal. Whichever fear is strongest at the ballot box wins out. (Could potentially explain why Greens often do better in polls than on election day? They usually don't campaign on out and out environmental fear. The others definitely campaign on economic fear.) Not saying this description matches a significant number of people, but I've met people for whom it does.

Union membership was actually quite high in years past. It's quite interesting that the membership of unions currency is so damn low.

It's been in rapid decline since the Hawke era. A lot less manufacturing and industries like that. Replaced with newer service industries that aren't as heavily unionised because they haven't had to fight for anything yet, and this time there's not much to fight for as those jobs just get offshored with little fanfare. Or casualised. And that beautifully Orwellian sharing economy.

Yep and that's mostly due to the Liberals.

Small l liberals like Hawke and Keating?

 

[legend166]

Turnbull needs to tie an increased GST to something like getting rid of superannuation tax concessions otherwise the narrative writes itself at the next election.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Thinking that a party is going to do what they say they're going to do would be regarded as a novel approach, but it's less about rational analysis and more about managing your fears. Think the planet is going to boil? Vote Green. Think the economy is going to tank? Vote Liberal. Whichever fear is strongest at the ballot box wins out. (Could potentially explain why Greens often do better in polls than on election day? They usually don't campaign on out and out environmental fear. The others definitely campaign on economic fear.) Not saying this description matches a significant number of people, but I've met people for whom it does.

Thinking that a party is going to do what they say when you regard it as bad seems pretty standard ?

And the Green vote collapse tends to make no difference to 2PP so it doesn't seem like it goes Liberal.

 

[hidys]

It's been in rapid decline since the Hawke era. A lot less manufacturing and industries like that. Replaced with newer service industries that aren't as heavily unionised because they haven't had to fight for anything yet, and this time there's not much to fight for as those jobs just get offshored with little fanfare. Or casualised. And that beautifully Orwellian sharing economy.


Small l liberals like Hawke and Keating?

It's mostly caused by labour market deregulation. Some of which occurred under Hawke-Keating but most of it occurred to anti-Union tactics taken by state Premiers in the early 90s.

Globalisation had a key role to play (particularly in the 80s) but the reality is most of it occurred due to labour market deregulation in the 90s where globalisation played less of a role.

This has been well documented in the literature and it's the conclusion of the vast majority of people who have studied Australian trade union membership decline. It's why decline in Australia has been more severe than pretty much any other country (except New Zealand where the same thing happens). I recommend David Peetz book Unions in a Contrary World and Andrew Leigh's book Disconnected, both of whom acknowledge that globalisation played a key role but it was mostly the actions of conservative governments which caused trade union density decline.

I would love to get more specific/ have a discussion on this but I need to go bed, but this is a subject In very interested in (did a whole bloody thesis on the thing).

 

[Fredescu]

Thinking that a party is going to do what they say when you regard it as bad seems pretty standard ?

When it feeds into your pre existing fears, yeah. I would say there is a not insignificant percentage of the voting population that would support a particular measure based entirely on which party is saying it. For them, what is being said is less important than who is saying it. They've picked their team and what their team does is right.

And the Green vote collapse tends to make no difference to 2PP so it doesn't seem like it goes Liberal.

Pretty sure I read a tweet by one of the local psephologists saying they give green preferences between 90/10 and 75/25. 10-25% is a decent chunk of Green>Lib voters. I'll see if I can verify that because I may be talking out of my arse.

I would love to get more specific/ have a discussion on this but I need to go bed, but this is a subject In very interested in (did a whole bloody thesis on the thing).

I don't think I have the stomach to read a whole book on it, but I'd be super interested if you had the time to post some bullet points or something on the subject.

 

[Shaneus]

Fredescu*
Rubixcuba
darkace
Elaugaufein*
Mr. Tone

So, we have the above five people, plus me. I noticed Wonzo has an account too, not sure if he's interested in topping up or not. But that's good though, puts us in the bracket for $139/year, saving $50 over a regular sub. I don't know how it'll all work out, I guess just via Paypal or something and then I'll buy it (I'm totes trustworthy, I swear!) once the money's all accounted for.

I'm not in any great hurry, it'll just be a handy thing to have. Will email them as well about appending existing subscriptions, see how that works out.

I've met people who are equal parts environmentally conscious and fearful of Labor in charge of the economy. There are great swathes of society that have nothing to do with unions, professionals and the like, so Labor just don't enter the equation for them.

I fit in this bracket, so I mostly go with Greens. The union thing doesn't grab me specifically, but I tend to vote for the greater good of the community and realise there's a lot of people out there doing it tougher than I who are likely to be unionised. Plus it helps that I live in Geelong, very much a blue-collar region. Except for Corangamite, would love to see Henderson booted out.


PS. Did it get mentioned in this thread that Dutton submitted his resignation via text? I can't recall reading it here but it popped up as a trending thing on FB.

 

[wonzo]

Union membership was actually on the up a few years ago until all the Craig Thompson & HSU stuff happened.

Fredescu*
Rubixcuba
darkace
Elaugaufein*
Mr. Tone

So, we have the above five people, plus me. I noticed Wonzo has an account too, not sure if he's interested in topping up or not. But that's good though, puts us in the bracket for $139/year, saving $50 over a regular sub. I don't know how it'll all work out, I guess just via Paypal or something and then I'll buy it (I'm totes trustworthy, I swear!) once the money's all accounted for.

I'm not in any great hurry, it'll just be a handy thing to have. Will email them as well about appending existing subscriptions, see how that works out.

I resubbed not that long ago so I'll pass on the group thing for now.

 

[Fredescu]

So, we have the above five people, plus me. I noticed Wonzo has an account too, not sure if he's interested in topping up or not. But that's good though, puts us in the bracket for $139/year, saving $50 over a regular sub. I don't know how it'll all work out, I guess just via Paypal or something and then I'll buy it (I'm totes trustworthy, I swear!) once the money's all accounted for.

How do you qualify for one free member? If there are 6, but we pay for five, that drops us back a bracket, but makes it even cheaper at $124/year each.

 

[Bernbaum]

I'll get in on a Crikey sub.

 

[Shaneus]

Email sent. It looks like we'd be well into the 6-9 group anyway so I'm not sure the extra member thing makes all that much difference, but I've asked regardless.

 

[Rubixcuba]

The leaks have begun, Yikes. Fairfax reporting that Turnbull had lowest rates of appointing women to boards as minister.

 

[Elaugaufein]

2 interesting things I heard on the radio:
Ruddock calling Labor corporatist. Managed to both not die of irony and not crash my car, so did well I think.

And someone who identified as a Liberal -> Green voter. Who gave pretty much the same justification as Fredescu said except re:social issues rather than environment.

Pretty sure I read a tweet by one of the local psephologists saying they give green preferences between 90/10 and 75/25. 10-25% is a decent chunk of Green>Lib voters. I'll see if I can verify that because I may be talking out of my arse.

The Green collapse is around 1/3 so 10% wouldn't cover it but 25% would go a fair way, once you account for things like people who vote for one of the single issue Senate parties first but place Greens highest of the parties that get named (and then pref Labor), the Labor/Green equivalent of the Shy Tory and people who panic/forget how preferential voting works and go with Labor.

 

[Fredescu]

This article: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-...-who-came-to-the-job-without-election/6782652

"Prime ministers who came to the job without facing an election"

Is it stupidly nitpicky to complain about this wording as something that supports the incorrect view of a Prime Minister as a presidential style position?

 

[darkace]

Pretty sure I read a tweet by one of the local psephologists saying they give green preferences between 90/10 and 75/25. 10-25% is a decent chunk of Green>Lib voters. I'll see if I can verify that because I may be talking out of my arse.

17% of the Green's preferences flowed to the Liberals in the 2013 election: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/11/preference-flows-at-the-2013-federal-election.html
If we have a look at the Primary vote jump after Turnbull's election, it's almost exactly everyone whose preferences would have gone to the Liberal's. I have no idea if the two groups are actually the same, but the sizing of the groups is very similar.

 

[wonzo]

only took day 3 of "good governemnt for real this time" for the leaks to roll. this is better than a 3rd onion eating vid

 

[Rubixcuba]

The Abbott will rise again.

 

[JC Sera]

The Abbott will rise again.

plz no

 

[wonzo]

The Abbott will rise again.

 

[Elaugaufein]

The Abbott will rise again.

So what you're saying is that that wasn't his Final Form ?

 

[roosters93]

Sources say Abbott has gone on a raw onion only diet and will come back and shirt front turnbull into the next century

 

[Fredescu]

Wow. That could well do it. Everything that makes Bernadi appalling to us would make him incredibly appealing to that group It could well decimate the Nationals and suck the oxygen out of One Nation / Reclaim / etc, as well as suck up a chunk of the Liberal's vote. Not sure how long it would last though. They'd still be sharing the same vote and that means they'd have to join a Coalition agreement to do anything, which would almost certainly be viewed as selling out and lead to an implosion (like what happened with the KAP).

itshappening.gif

 

[Omikron]

That is really amusing.

 

[danm999]

Cabinet leaking again zzzzzzzz

Someone trying to do as much damage as possible before they hit the back bench.

 

[Fredescu]

Cory Bernardi thing is a false alarm. Apparently it always looked like that.

 

[Quasar]

Cory Bernardi thing is a false alarm. Apparently it always looked like that.

Too bad.

 

[wonzo]

http://stopturnbull.com/

 

[Jintor]

off the national spill obsession for a second, anyone catch the Lib Senator telling Penny Wong to "learn to speak Australian"? Remark was not deemed unparliamentary.

What a grade a piece of shit.

One day Penny Wong will be Prime Minister somehow (or Lee Lin Chin) and I will laugh and laugh as the entire racist misogynist homophobic wing of politics has simultaneous aneurysms.

 

[Jintor]

my mistake.

it was not just some lib senator, it was noted climate denier ian mcdonald, and penny wong wasn't the target, it was doug cameron who has a thick scottish accent.

my other comment stands. i hope their fucking heads implode.

 

[bobnowhere]

Don't worry here's another.

NT AG John Elferink tells female Labor crossbencher that he'd like to slap her.

He initially claimed it was just a metaphor but later apologised. Now that the weekly or more frequent Abbott disasters should die down I hope we can rely on the comedy that is the CLP in NT to continue.

 

[darkace]

If telling a foreign-born person to speak Australian isn't deemed unparliamentary, then what the hell is.

 

[danm999]

If telling a foreign-born person to speak Australian isn't deemed unparliamentary, then what the hell is.

Breastfeeding.