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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?
- Thread starter Bernbaum
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Not new, checked the whois and it dates back to Feb.
Elaugaufein
Member
It's kinda hard to read things from pre-poll / postal votes vs on the day without a good baseline (and I'm pretty sure Canning for a redistribution). Postal votes are usually more conservative than normal votes (though there are exceptions, in State level at Queensland theres a largely rural conservative seat, that goes the other way because a little bit on the southern side takes in part of a largeish town). I'm not sure about general pre-poll votes, I suspect they are more partisan than normal but that doesn't indicate which way.
Elaugaufein
Member
I feel kind of bad for Hockey. He did the economy part right (not going hard on the whole Austerity thing). It was the confines placed on him by narrative and ideology that really boned him (Debt and Deficit Disaster, and the resulting utter inability to defend the resulting budget blowout as being appropriate stimulus and the hamhanded way the cuts were targeted at those least able to defend themselves or to bear it, compounded by his ability to stick his foot in his mouth whenever he tried to defend things).
the housing gaffer left any pity I had for him in the drain
"get a job that pays better if you want a house"
10/10 advice
Heard back from Crikey:
So I guess for those of you with existing accounts, let me know when your sub is due and we'll work something out. I can't remember numbers/who exactly wanted in either, so remind me
Mine is due 2/7/2016
It was a by-election. As far as I am aware, a by-election has never changed hands from the Government to the Opposition. Wide consensus from Canning seems to be that neither Shorten or Turnbull 'won'.
The swing was of 7% which is above the usual swing of 5% at a general by-election, and also that following a deceased Member (2.5%). A hollow victory could be claimed for Labor in that regard, but when the events of #Libspill and the lackluster performance of the Liberal Government are considered, the swing is on the disappointingly small side. Turnbull may also be concerned that the swing was still larger than that 5% figure, if a swing that size was recorded in marginal seats throughout Western Sydney, South Australia and Queensland lots of Liberal backbenchers would be ousted.
The pressure is on Shorten (Hey, he is on Q&A tonight, with a one-on-one with Tony Jones!), but it's still premature to be saying his a dead duck.
There's nothing to be learned from Canning imo. It was way too soon after a leadership change. Give it a few weeks to shake out and start looking at the polls then.
Canning was going to the Libs anyway so nah.
I was thinking via PM, easier to co-ordinate that way
I think the Libs were always going to win, it was more the amount of swing that would theoretically be applied to all seats in Australia (I think that's how it worked, or something) to see what the swing would be towards Labor across Australia. Because they said it was a swing of ~7%, I guess anything with a <7% margin to Libs could potentially go to Labor under Shorten.
Still want him gone, though. Tits on a bull.
I have increasing doubt whether throwing in Plibersek or Albo would have same effect as Turnbull. Whilst either would be more popular with ALP members, and the Left in general, I'm not sure either has the public recognition to make traction in the community 10~ months out of an election. Kinda akin to how Luke Foley went in this years NSW Election, likeable enough guy, but absolutely no one knew who he was.
Luke Foley backflipped on supporting the Sydney CBD Light Rail after the election. Why would I vote for somebody who withdraws support on good policy just because?
But who else would, though? Hell, Di Natale has more of a public profile than anyone else in Labor. Albo and Plibersek, as far as popularity goes (if that's the metric to use) are all Labor have.
Only way you can get known is if you fuck up big enough (see: everyone you've heard of in the Libs). Not counting that it was more recent, how many people can remember the last Labor treasurer vs. the last Liberal one? Even at the time of the last election I don't think many people could've remembered it was Swan.
Well, would like to think as leader of the Greens that Di Natale has a larger public profile than anyone else. The exception with Turnbull was I suppose is that he was a former Opposition Leader who threw himself spectacularly into the public's eye with the whole Utegate thing.
Labor's frontbench are all untested as Opp. Leader. That's a good thing I think through. The party should stay course with Shorten til the election, if he fails, then there isn't anyone to blame but himself for poor performance.
shame tanner left as he was by far and away labor's best performer, not so much for combet who went to shill or the gas sector
"the berlin wall of sydney" - luke "dumbfuck" foley
Do you think Labor are happy to essentially sit out this election and bide their time for the next one? I'd have thought the last thing they want to do is let Turnbull settle in as PM, resulting in more of a chance to cement himself in and wash himself of Abbott.
That's exactly the issue facing Labor. Play the long game with Shorten or risk a spill for [insert]. A huge caveat has to be placed that whilst Turnbull is preferred PM, 2PP polling has Labor/Libs at 50/50. Considering again that Turnbull has only been in for a week, its far too early to say Shorten can't win.
It sort of helps that Shorten is so boring that nothing really sticks onto him. I mean the Liberal Far Right are still pretty sore about Turnbull right now: The sort of problem for Shorten is that these people will still probably vote Liberal because there's not really an alternative choice unless you consider fringe parties like Family First to be one.
bobnowhere
Member
John Oliver (Last Week Tonight) on the downfall of Abbott.
It's from some awards show this morning. You have to admire Angela Bishop's professionalism, I wonder if John knows who her mother is!
It's from some awards show this morning. You have to admire Angela Bishop's professionalism, I wonder if John knows who her mother is!
Elaugaufein
Member
Yeah, agreed, they really did leave Abbott in too long, and it's damaged the entire Liberal brand*. They haven't managed to put out anything suggesting that they are doing anything to reduce that (the opposite if anything).
I do personally think Shorten should get a while to show what he can do. He did manage to unseat Abbott (and in so doing basically counter any mantra's about Labor instability), so he deserves the chance to show he can actually function as Labor leader in less unusual circumstances. Even if on a personal level I think he's a muppet who could use a spine transplant and would be better suited as a policy wonk than a leader.
*They need to be able to at least project a convincing image that they are for the Aspirational Middle Class rather than for the Religious Fundamentalists and the Ultra-Wealthy to win elections without Labor doing the whole internal meltdown thing.
I do personally think Shorten should get a while to show what he can do. He did manage to unseat Abbott (and in so doing basically counter any mantra's about Labor instability), so he deserves the chance to show he can actually function as Labor leader in less unusual circumstances. Even if on a personal level I think he's a muppet who could use a spine transplant and would be better suited as a policy wonk than a leader.
*They need to be able to at least project a convincing image that they are for the Aspirational Middle Class rather than for the Religious Fundamentalists and the Ultra-Wealthy to win elections without Labor doing the whole internal meltdown thing.
Perfect, because a super effective opposition leader is exactly what Labor doesn't have!
Holy fuck, how did I not know that? Explains a lot, actually.
Maybe, but I don't like him so I want him out of there. There's some saying about how apathy is worse than hatred or something, and it applies there. He's just nothing. While Abbott's switch was set to "oppose everything", Shorten's is set to "eh".
Any of the people I can think of though (other than Shorten) don't exactly scream "spill waiting to happen" to me, if they do it before they could possibly get elected. I guess we have to consider that with every election for the next decade or two now, but I think Labor have to now see the power that having an outspoken, strong opposition leader has. It got Abbott elected, but I don't see it from Bill.
Yes, of course I'm somewhat leading to Albo being ideal, he looks like he could get shit done, and actually get riled about things
Did he? Abbott basically unseated himself. The only people Shorten helped unseat were those in his own party several years ago.
Elaugaufein
Member
This is true, but Shorten avoided doing anything to get in the way of it, and that does seem to have been the point of his small target approach. Though unfortunately for him it was a little too effective, I think he was really hoping to make it to the next election and basically cruise in.
I think Shorten does deserve some credit here. Abbott's a fighter, and is always looking for the next person to hit. Shorten never provided this target for him and Abbott knocked himself out. You can disagree with how Shorten achieved this, but I think it's more important that he did do it in the end.
Reminds me of what Dryk said a couple of days back that Shorten is a robot set to Abbott.
My mind is beyond blown.
Elaugaufein
Member
I made the mistake of actually reading this (well at least as far as I got before I wanted to spork my eyes). The entire beginning is about Turnbull's mother (and is approximately tabloid quality). Then it moves on to what Turnbull did in the 1970s. As someone who came from a conservative family background and was a conservative voter until the mid 2000s, to say that someone's political beliefs 40 years ago, don't necessarily have any bearing on those they hold today, is a massive understatement. Then I stuck a spork in my eye and closed the page but I will remember this bomma_man , and you shall pay.
You forgot the key difference between them, Shorten's batteries are flat so he just sort of weakly stumbles around quietly disapproving of things instead of going in hard like Abbott
D.Lo
Member
Exactly, Shorten sounds like he's a lazy whinger, as opposed to Abbott who was more like a fiery preacher.
Shorten deserves less than no credit for removing Abbott. Shorten's crapness kept the 2PP close to parity for at least a 1.5 years of near-constant Abbott buffoonery and worse. Shorten strengthened Abbott.
You need no more evidence of the fact that Shorten had nothing to do with Abbott going than his own people and Shorten himself not believing it. They're apparently in a bit of a panic now, and his face went white when they heard of the spill.
Memo to the ALP, wake the fuck up. I say this as someone who thinks that a useful credible opposition is essential to keeping a government working properly.
I think the problem with the ALP is just they have so few people in Parliament to actually draw talent from. If the ALP don't win the next election I think the party would nonetheless be in a much better position with way more MPs to draw from.
I think the problem with the ALP is just they have so few people in Parliament to actually draw talent from. If the ALP don't win the next election I think the party would nonetheless be in a much better position with way more MPs to draw from.
Interesting. Didn't Labor's polling dive when Gillard took over?it's a morgan poll so take it with the tiniest grain of salt but what a bounce!
Did it? I thought it went up slightly, and only really started to plummet after her election.
there was a big jump in the first week, after that & "the real julia" campaign brainfart happened she never ever reached the polling heights rudd had before he was ditched
going by other more reliable polling outfits this would be comparable to rudd replacing her again as the percentage jump was similar (tho not enough to save us from the onion eating monster)
D.Lo
Member
Yeah, small bump, 'first female PM' was hyped, but then it was immediately an election 'poll', which was a dead heat (72 seats each), then Labor and Gillard collapsed soon after.
What was Labor's lowest primary under Gillard? 26% I think?
Rudd's heights were stratostrophic though. 75% approval rating? Most libs approved of him even.
Fuck off, Shorten.it's a morgan poll so take it with the tiniest grain of salt but what a bounce!
Dastardly Jerks
Banned
OH BOY BILL SHORTEN ON Q&A TONI-zzzzzz
I'm not talking about his approval rating but the overall polls right before he was knifed (around the ~52 2PP mark)
D.Lo
Member
Ah okay, you said 'polling heights' (Labor was way ahead when he was 75% too) but that was basically close to Rudd Labotr's polling 'lows' - but would be a 'high' for Gillard.
Yeah, I meant relative to Gillard's.
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