I think his plan was to hope the Right (and Nats) would be pleased enough with the concessions he gave them to shut up until the next election. In the mean time he starts several policy discussions to look like he's doing something without actually having to do anything. Pass Senate Voting Reform. Pass a traditional pre-election budget (middle class welfare wooo, be cagey about anything unpopular, rule out some incredibly stupid shit that would be political suicide to do, etc) and then go to the polls. At that point he either gets back in (with what he hopes) is a more tractable Senate and a clear mandate (so that the Right get told to STFU) or he loses (and he's done).
But he'd have been able to count on a relatively clean-ish period before home and the honeymoon bounce combined with not being Tony Abbott to probably win at least the House and get a Senate where he had less varied crossbenchers to deal with.