akascream said:
What is being stolen is worth millions of dollars regardless of whether the thieves would have purchased the murchandise if they hadn't stolen it.
Look, I think this "debate" is fairly dumb on both sides, but I can't let this statement go unchallenged.
1)
Copyright infringement is NOT theft. Repeat that to yourself until you understand the difference between the two.
2) Calculating the monetary impact of software piracy (or ANY kind of piracy, for that matter) is NOT as simple as multiplying the number of alleged downloads by the MSRP. There are at least THREE categories of people who would download brand-new pirated games that come to mind:
-- People who want something for free. ("Freeloaders")
-- People who already plan to buy the game when its available, but want to play before that time (waiting for a release date, waiting to have available funds, etc.). ("Previewers")
-- People who are not planning to buy the game, but would consider buying it if they enjoy playing the pirated version and consider it worth their money. ("Trial Runners")
"Freeloaders" are assholes, in my personal opinion, but you can't argue that everyone in that category represents a lost sale. Quite frankly, many of them wouldn't have bought the game under ANY circumstances -- either they don't have any disposable income for games, or they choose to game only because they can get away with ripping off the latest and greatest entertainment.
"Previewers" don't represent ANY lost sales, since they are going to buy the game ANYWAY. They are downloading the game because they are real enthusiasts, and if the game is excellent, can actually DRIVE word-of-mouth sales. Again, it's hard to make these people into bad guys, in my opinion.
"Trial Runners" are the most interesting category. If they try it and like it, then they actually represent an EXTRA sale for the developers. On the other hand, if they consider it to be "not worth my money," they won't buy it -- but they weren't planning on it anyway.
Since a certain percentage of "trial runners" (and "freeloaders") would have probably bought the game just to "take a chance on it being good," you could assess SOME financial impact from the availability of the pirated version. The X factor is how many people HONESTLY would be willing to spend the money to buy something they already have for free to "do the right thing." In other words, I think there is a strong, selfish instinct which tempts people into downloading something by thinking, "I'll try it, and if I like it, I'll buy it"...but once they have it, revert to thinking, "It's not REALLY worth my money," and continue to play it anyway.
In any event -- I hope it's QUITE clear that any quoted dollar figure for piracy is HIGHLY suspect without a shitload of supporting data. Also, a proper analysis would have to include sale price over time, because people may feel that Doom 3 (for instance) isn't worth $55 at release, but would be a worthwhile purchase at $40. Not all unit sales are equal from a revenue perspective.