I wouldn't count out Paulie too fast. Him and Corey are already laying down some thick bro vibes to James, who has been fipping, flopping, and floating this entire season. If Corey or Paulie win HOH, James would likely instantly be back on their side. With two people on the other side of the house up for eviction, limiting the votes to only 2 people, Paulie/Corey/Nicole/James will have full control over who goes. Moreover, the co-HOH care package is set to arrive when Paulie returns. Even if Paulie/Corey don't win HOH, they could still get the power to nominate someone. Seeing as how the TV edits having being favouring the boys, it wouldn't surprise me if one of them got it. James could get it too, but if Corey or Paulie are HOH that week, they would completely force his hand. James is too weak to not give into the pressure Paulie exerts.
I don't mean to sound pessimistic. There's just so many variables to consider.