I can see any of them winning now:
If Paul wins HoH, he will certainly clip Christmas. Even if the jury is bitter, they might not be bitter enough to give the win to Josh, depending on how Paul handles the speeches/questions. It could go to ether way.
If Josh wins HoH and clips Christmas, they will be upset at him for remaining a spineless Paul puppet to the end, and probably give it to Paul out of disgust.
If Josh win HoH and clips Paul, I can see it go either way depending on how he handles it. If he is able to articulate that he knew that Paul ran the house and that the only way for him to win was to get in tight with Paul and get rid of him at the end, the jury will respect that and probably give him the win.
But this is Josh we're talking about. He's an emotional trainwreck. And Paul has done everything he can to make it so that Josh wouldn't be able to cut him without feeling terrible. Josh thinks they're going to be best friends outside of the house, swore on his family that he would take Paul to F2 (he shouldn't give a shit about breaking such a coerced promise but he probably will), ect. So he will probably be very upset if he cuts Paul. And he may not be able to pull his shit together in time. Him crying about evicting Paul would just make him look pathetic and less deserving of winning. So they might give it to Christmas instead. Hell, they might decide that he only did it because she convinced him to which would mean that she was the one who beat Paul.