For people celebrating for Blu-ray, it could just as easily have gone the other way...yes it was that close. There was an agreement in principle between Toshiba, Fox and Warner, but FOX pulled out at the 11th hour and went to Sony with their intentions. To Sony's credit, the did whatever it took to get Fox and Warner (although Warner is denying any type of incentives...if you believe this, I have a bridge for sale if anyone is interested). For the record, I think "incentives" are perfectly acceptable and a part of doing business.
Let's look at this from a business perspective. Is Toshiba harmed by losing HD DVD? Yes, but not to the degree that Sony would be if Blu-ray died. Sony has literally bet the farm on Blu-ray with the PS3. The PS3 isn't considered a successful game machine (yet), and if Sony lost Fox and Warner after the Paramount defection, that would have been the end of Blu-ray and possibly the end of Sony as we know it.