Support NeoGAF

[FF_VIII]

So how big would a 1080p movie with uncompressed audio be to download?

 

[SolidSnakex]

So how big would a 1080p movie with uncompressed audio be to download?

Big enough that DD shouldn't even be in this discussion.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

What kind of video resolution works on your iPod? 8x5 pixels?

I don't know, what resolution is my thumbnail? Pretty small I'd wager. I don't know what the resolution ends up on a Touch, AppleTV, or iPhone. I think I remember reading all iTMS material is 480 something now.

 

[avaya]

So how big would a 1080p movie with uncompressed audio be to download?

How big is a Blu-ray disc?

Average 30GB.

 

[herod]

Some people clearly don't mind it, or iTMS would have shuttered a very long time ago.

True, although if you're like me you're more likely to lend someone a film than a CD. I think taste is less of an issue, or perhaps films are more MOR?

 

[M3Freak]

So how big would a 1080p movie with uncompressed audio be to download?

25 GB, at least.

 

[jmdajr]

So how big would a 1080p movie with uncompressed audio be to download?

close to 50 gigs if the movie is really long.
30 if you use lossless audio.

so yeah

 

[jeremy_ricci]

Some people clearly don't mind it, or iTMS would have shuttered a very long time ago.

They will mind when they can't do anything with a form of media that isn't tangible in the slightest.

No trading, no buying nothing.

There are entirely too many things that have to happen with a DD service in order for it to be successful.

1) Backup. You NEED to be able to backup your devices. MP3's are successful because you can put them on CD, move them, they are small and managable. Full sized HD Video? It is not.

2) Subscription service. You cannot have all of your media digitally without having some method of record for what you purchased. This cannot be done without subscription service. People will be weary when they learn your media is locked on one device, and when that device kicks the bucket, you'll need to re-download your movies.

3) The service has to be widely available to everyone in the US. The fact still remains that most of the US population does not have internet fast enough to get the content in a timely manner. It will take at least another 5 years before DD can become a standardized reality to all consumers. As it is right now, anyone can buy an HDTV and Blu-Ray player, they don't need to meet the many requirements that DD presents.

I don't know if you're actually supporting DD, but if you are, I feel sorry for you and the shit storm we, the consumer, will have to deal with because of pirates.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

True, although if you're like me you're more likely to lend someone a film than a CD. I think taste is less of an issue, or perhaps films are more MOR?

Hey I was the first guy to think that iTMS selling full length movies was pretty ridiculous, but it must be doing okay. I really think that the overall trend in media is putting less of a reliance on audio and video fidelity. You see it in gaming, you see it in music. As I said, movie fans are a different breed, but it's still a significant trend across the board.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

They will mind when they can't do anything with a form of media that isn't tangible in the slightest.

No trading, no buying nothing.

There are entirely too many things that have to happen with a DD service in order for it to be successful.

1) Backup. You NEED to be able to backup your devices. MP3's are successful because you can put them on CD, move them, they are small and managable. Full sized HD Video? It is not.

2) Subscription service. You cannot have all of your media digitally without having some method of record for what you purchased. This cannot be done without subscription service. People will be weary when they learn your media is locked on one device, and when that device kicks the bucket, you'll need to re-download your movies.

3) The service has to be widely available to everyone in the US. The fact still remains that most of the US population does not have internet fast enough to get the content in a timely manner. It will take at least another 5 years before DD can become a standardized reality to all consumers. As it is right now, anyone can buy an HDTV and Blu-Ray player, they don't need to meet the many requirements that DD presents.

I don't know if you're actually supporting DD, but if you are, I feel sorry for you and the shit storm we, the consumer, will have to deal with because of pirates.

You keep focusing on HD video as if it were a primary concern of even 80% of the video consuming public.

Nearly everything your describing is solved (not solvable, SOLVED) today by DVD and the iTunes Music Store.

You're putting an emphasis on the importance of HD quality that the market itself has not.

ETA: There's no need to bring emotional pleas into this. I'm just stating facts here.

 

[GauntletFan]

It will take at least another 5 years before DD can become a standardized reality to all consumers.

You don't think regular DVD will remain the standard until then?

Of course it will.

Just as most households don't have the luxury of a high speed internet connection, most households don't have the luxury of a HDTV, surround sound system and HD player. And guess what? most people don't see a difference (hard as it sounds to us guys)

Sadly I think HD movies in physical form will remain the preserve of people like us, movie enthusiasts. As long as someone is making them, though. I don't care where it comes from, as long as our niche group continues being supported.

 

[WrikaWrek]

Big enough that DD shouldn't even be in this discussion.

HD 1080p Xvid(or WMV whatever you want) for 10 bucks charlie.

ding ding

What do i hear there johny? 720P movies at the size of a standard Dvd movie?

I'll buy that for a dollar.

Come on, are you guys really bringing the size of the movie on a optical disk into discussion? Really?

 

[herod]

You keep focusing on HD video as if it were a primary concern of even 80% of the video consuming public.

Nearly everything your describing is solved (not solvable, SOLVED) today by DVD and the iTunes Music Store.

You're putting an emphasis on the importance of HD quality that the market itself has not.

which makes Gates' answer regarding Blu-ray and HD DVD all the more irrelevant, if nothing else.

 

[andycapps]

Lots of text

I agree completely. The problem is just that the broadband speeds (at least in the US) are not increasing as fast as people seemed to think they would. I know that I'm on a max of 7 mbps Road Runner cable connection. Outside of that, my options are AT&T DSL which (in my area) is maxed at 6 mbps for $34.99/month. Now if they get Lightspeed out in the US stat I could see DD being a possibility, but I cannot imagine downloading a 1080p movie with my current connection.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

You don't think regular DVD will remain the standard until then?

Of course it will.

Just as most households don't have the luxury of a high speed internet connection, most households don't have the luxury of a HDTV, surround sound system and HD player. And guess what? most people don't see a difference (hard as it sounds to us guys)

Sadly I think HD movies in physical form will remain the preserve of people like us, movie enthusiasts. As long as someone is making them, though. I don't care where it comes from, as long as our niche group continues being supported.

Exactly.

I will be buying a Blu-Ray player the same time I bought a DVD player. When they scurry under $200. So it's not like I'm some crusader against the format and am keeping Standard Definition Kosher in my home. I'm just realistic about the situation outside the Videophile's domain.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Sony Corp. shares rose in Tokyo after Time Warner Inc., the world's largest publisher of DVD titles, chose to adopt the Japanese company's Blu-ray format over Toshiba Corp.'s technology.

The world's second-largest consumer electronics maker climbed 0.9 percent to 5,840 yen at 12:44 p.m. on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Toshiba, the rival HD DVD standard's leading promoter, fell 2.5 percent to its lowest in more than nine months.

``It's a game-changing event, game over for HD DVD,'' Macquarie Securities Ltd. analyst David Gibson said in an e-mail today. Warner ``is the industry leader, and other studios will follow,'' he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8VXNBrm2jMw&refer=home

 

[bluheim]

Exactly.

I will be buying a Blu-Ray player the same time I bought a DVD player. When they scurry under $200. So it's not like I'm some crusader against the format and am keeping Standard Definition Kosher in my home. I'm just realistic about the situation outside the Videophile's domain.

If only someone had the idea to make a next-gen system that also is an excellent BR player, for 400$, we would be very happy right now...

 

[andycapps]

HD 1080p Xvid(or WMV whatever you want) for 10 bucks charlie.

ding ding

What do i hear there johny? 720P movies at the size of a standard Dvd movie?

I'll buy that for a dollar.

Come on, are you guys really bringing the size of the movie on a optical disk into discussion? Really?

Does the Xvid format support DRM? AFAIK, it's the format of choice for piracy because it's so high quality and not protected, amirite?

I will be buying a Blu-Ray player the same time I bought a DVD player. When they scurry under $200. So it's not like I'm some crusader against the format and am keeping Standard Definition Kosher in my home. I'm just realistic about the situation outside the Videophile's domain.

I pretty much did the same thing with DVD as I did this round. I got the PS2 last time because of the games obviously, and the fact that it could play DVD's. I later got a dedicated Blu-ray player when the price was right and to keep the extra wear off my PS2. I plan on doing the same with a dedicated Blu-ray player when the price is right. Anyway, I believe the Samsung Blu-ray players are at $280 on Amazon, so you shouldn't have long to wait. By this Christmas I would be shocked if they weren't sub-$200.

 

[WrikaWrek]

Does the Xvid format support DRM? AFAIK, it's the format of choice for piracy because it's so high quality and not protected, amirite?

Well there's wmv too...i don't know, choose one.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

If only someone had the idea to make a next-gen system that also is an excellent BR player, for 400$, we would be very happy right now...

What does that have to do with BR adoption? PotC3 was released when the PS3 was available wasn't it? Do you think the hundred dollar price drop (assuming this release was before it) is going to make up for a 7.4 million unit gap between BR and DVD sales?

 

[avaya]

MSRP's of BD SALs announced at CES are ~$300-350. Street prices will be $200 by Christmas.

 

[forgeforsaken]

People who are thinking digital distribution can't succeed because of the bandwidth to move movies the size of those on a blu-ray disk are being narrow minded. DD doesn't need to match that level of quality to really succeed. As long as DD can come in at better quality than current DVD it will probably be fine. I still think DD is the true heir to DVD, with the higher quality physical media existing side by side with it but being more niche. Really I see the HD disk formats being a lot like laserdisk in a way, though I do think they are going to be way way more successful than laserdisk, heck I think at their current level they already are.

 

[bluheim]

Do you think the hundred dollar price drop (assuming this release was before it) is going to make up for a 7.4 million unit gap between BR and DVD sales?

No.

What I DO think is that there already is a BR player that costs less than 200$, and a very good one, one of the best in the market : the PS3 ! You prefer to wait until BR players cost less than 200$. That's OK to me. But what about a BR player that costs 0$ if you're also a gamer ?

 

[Rolf NB]

I don't know, what resolution is my thumbnail? Pretty small I'd wager. I don't know what the resolution ends up on a Touch, AppleTV, or iPhone. I think I remember reading all iTMS material is 480 something now.

You know I've just checked, and the flagship iPod Touch can display no more than 480x320 pixels. I can understand why people are sometimes ready to trade image fidelity for mobility and easy access, but this device presents no competition to home entertainment in any way, shape or form. It doesn't even match DVD resolution, and yet you bring it up in a thread about HD video. Tell me how you feel about that.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

People who are thinking digital distribution can't succeed because of the bandwidth to move movies the size of those on a blu-ray disk are being narrow minded. DD doesn't need to match that level of quality to really succeed. As long as DD can come in at better quality than current DVD it will probably be fine. I still think DD is the true heir to DVD, with the higher quality physical media existing side by side with it but being more niche. Really I see the HD disk formats being a lot like laserdisk in a way, though I do think they are going to be way way more successful than laserdisk, heck I think at their current level they already are.

Exactly. Understand, I'm not saying Blu-Ray is doomed, any more than 1080p televisions are. I just don't believe they'll ever be the standard.

 

[jeremy_ricci]

My stand: DD will not catch on. If Blu-Ray does not replace DVD, then DVD will remain standard, and 'on demand' free cable subscription services will remain top dog, DD will never catch on.

 

[Dirtbag]

You don't think regular DVD will remain the standard until then?

Of course it will.

Just as most households don't have the luxury of a high speed internet connection, most households don't have the luxury of a HDTV, surround sound system and HD player. And guess what? most people don't see a difference (hard as it sounds to us guys)

Sadly I think HD movies in physical form will remain the preserve of people like us, movie enthusiasts. As long as someone is making them, though. I don't care where it comes from, as long as our niche group continues being supported.

Well I'm glad somebody finally said it.

 

[mckmas8808]

Well, the arugment is similar to music - if you can download an album at a reasonable speed by clicking a button, would you still prefer to own a physical CD disk? Similary, if you can download a movie (let's say upscaled SD) in a reasonable time (30 min - 1 hour) by clicking a button, and you can store it in your media devices (PS3, 360, PC, whatever else you've got), would you still prefer to have a physical DVD disk?

Hot damn GAF. Aren't people still buying CDs?

 

[Forsete]

This has probably been asked, but when is the BDA conference?

 

[avaya]

This has probably been asked, but when is the BDA conference?

5pm PST, today.

 

[mckmas8808]

MC, it's not just YouTube. Raise your hand if you miss an episode of Friday Night Lights, content in the fact that you can catch it on NBC.com.

Although Bill Gates hasn't had much success in the business sector, I think in this instance, he's on the right track. Same with music, although to a much smaller degree (Videophiles outnumber Musicophiles by probably a billion to .5), portable and online full length video, I'd be willing to bet, has a greater penetration than HD disc-based media.

So what are you really saying? Are you saying that Blu-ray and DD movies can co-exist? Or are you saying that DD movies will phase out Blu-ray sales and will be the winner in the end?

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

You know I've just checked, and the flagship iPod Touch can display 480x320 pixels. I can understand why people are sometimes ready to trade image fidelity for mobility and easy access, but this device presents no competition to home entertainment in any way, shape or form. It doesn't even match DVD resolution, and yet you bring it up in a thread about HD video. Tell me how you feel about that.

Oh, brother. Look. I've been perfectly reasonable about this the entire conversation, so I'll have to disappoint you when it comes to the personal emotional resonance of this particular issue.

I didn't bring up the conceit. Bill Gates did. In an article quoted in this thread. That most people are now responding to.

I didn't say "Ey, WHOA WHOA WHOA, has anyone thought about the current trend in music toward Digital Download?" Bill Gates did.

 

[Rolf NB]

My stand: DD will not catch on. If Blu-Ray does not replace DVD, then DVD will remain standard, and 'on demand' free cable subscription services will remain top dog, DD will never catch on.

Other random stand: low-res DD video will compete with and eventually displace most of the DVD sales, while discs will be the dominant delivery format of high-resolution content.

 

[Loudninja]

Oh and what about the Ps3 conference?

 

[kaching]

I will be buying a Blu-Ray player the same time I bought a DVD player. When they scurry under $200.

So you'll be buying one by the end of 2008 then, well short of these 5 yr predictions.

Because of the more easily achievable compatability between DVD and the HD formats, the transition doesn't have to be as protracted and demanding of the consumer as VHS to DVD was. BD or HDDVD featureset is essentially a superset of DVD. It's no different from the way the scope of features on your average DVD player has increased to encompass more than just bog standard DVD-ROM and CD-ROM playback, such that the person who buys a DVD player today also gets a device that can playback MP3 CDs, or Divx vids on rewritabled DVDs, etc. In a couple of years, that will essentially be the scenario for the winning HD format, subsumed into what is marketed to the public as your average DVD player.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

My stand: DD will not catch on. If Blu-Ray does not replace DVD, then DVD will remain standard, and 'on demand' free cable subscription services will remain top dog, DD will never catch on.

So most people are arguing semantics here, then. I've always considered cable subscription to be a form Digital Distribution. Why wouldn't it be?

 

[Forsete]

5pm PST, today.

About 9½ hours away then?

 

[jeremy_ricci]

Other random stand: low-res DD video will compete with and eventually displace most of the DVD sales, while discs will be the dominant delivery format of high-resolution content.

No.

DD video will only be successful on a minimal scale, such as iTMS. It's not going to approach anywhere near the level of DVD sales. Ever.

On Demand is already readily available with free movie content with nearly every cable and dish networks service. The ability to chose what you want to watch immediately and watch it then and there has already made DD a fictional possibliity. Before any DD service is 100% up and running with a large amount of studio backing, On Demand services will have grown to be so successful that it won't stand a chance in mainstream media. J6P wants his DVD quality on demand here and now, not 3 minutes from now through DD.

 

[WrikaWrek]

Oh and what about the Ps3 conference?

Isn't this CES? I don't think there's a Ps3 conference. CEs isn't about games.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Oh and what about the Ps3 conference?

Tuesday.

 

[StranGER]

You don't think regular DVD will remain the standard until then?

Of course it will.

Just as most households don't have the luxury of a high speed internet connection, most households don't have the luxury of a HDTV, surround sound system and HD player. And guess what? most people don't see a difference (hard as it sounds to us guys)

Sadly I think HD movies in physical form will remain the preserve of people like us, movie enthusiasts. As long as someone is making them, though. I don't care where it comes from, as long as our niche group continues being supported.

so so true.

what about streaming HD as you watch it? wouldn't that solve some of the load problems?
maybe stream and download together?

 

[Loudninja]

Tuesday.

Thanks,I don't expect much, but at least we get new footage

 

[mckmas8808]

People who are thinking digital distribution can't succeed because of the bandwidth to move movies the size of those on a blu-ray disk are being narrow minded. DD doesn't need to match that level of quality to really succeed. As long as DD can come in at better quality than current DVD it will probably be fine. I still think DD is the true heir to DVD, with the higher quality physical media existing side by side with it but being more niche. Really I see the HD disk formats being a lot like laserdisk in a way, though I do think they are going to be way way more successful than laserdisk, heck I think at their current level they already are.

So are people going to be okay with their movies looking worst than everyday HD programming on their new 50 HDTV?

 

[Rolf NB]

Oh, brother. Look. I've been perfectly reasonable about this the entire conversation, so I'll have to disappoint you when it comes to the personal emotional resonance of this particular issue.

I didn't bring up the conceit. Bill Gates did. In an article quoted in this thread. That most people are now responding to.

I didn't say "Ey, WHOA WHOA WHOA, has anyone thought about the current trend in music toward Digital Download?" Bill Gates did.

It wasn't your evil twin brother you who propped up WrikaWrek's argument on the previous page. It was you.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

So are people going to be okay with their movies looking worst than everyday HD programming on their new 50 HDTV?

People already are. In homes all over the country. I'm sure we all know people who watch stretched content on their HDTV's when the same exact show is available on the HD version of that channel on their box.

 

[WrikaWrek]

So are people going to be okay with their movies looking worst than everyday HD programming on their new 50 HDTV?

See, that doesn't make any sense, if you have the capability to have hours upon hours of high quality everyday Hd programming streamed to you, why wouldn't it have the capability to stream movies with quality on par with that?

No.

DD video will only be successful on a minimal scale, such as iTMS. It's not going to approach anywhere near the level of DVD sales. Ever.

On Demand is already readily available with free movie content with nearly every cable and dish networks service. The ability to chose what you want to watch immediately and watch it then and there has already made DD a fictional possibliity. Before any DD service is 100% up and running with a large amount of studio backing, On Demand services will have grown to be so successful that it won't stand a chance in mainstream media. J6P wants his DVD quality on demand here and now, not 3 minutes from now through DD.

What's the difference? DD and on demand is the same crap. Now you are just renting, but you will be able to buy and then stream at will whevener you want. And then you will have the option to download if you so chose.

Why are we arguing this as if On demand service was a whole different thing? It isn't.

 

[mckmas8808]

People already are. In homes all over the country. I'm sure we all know people who watch stretched content on their HDTV's when the same exact show is available on the HD version of that channel on their box.

Right now people are in the SD -> HD phase. But as consumers get smarter and when HD programming becomes the norm people will notice more often.

 

[andycapps]

Well there's wmv too...i don't know, choose one.

Yep, but then there's the issue of there being so many different services to choose from out there. Who would facilitate this? Itunes? No, they would never support WMV. There's all the different marketplace ideas that Microsoft has out there with their deal with MTV and whatnot, but there doesn't seem to be a clear cut solution to this in the online space. At least for now. I really don't think we're going to see DD rule in the next 5 years, at a minimum. I'm thinking it'll be closer to 10 years at this rate. The idea is certainly appealing to me, being able to click on something on an HTPC and download it, or at least load enough of it to stream it, within a couple hours. It sounds great to me if I had a big media server setup like what all the celebrities have on MTV Cribs, but in the real world, it seems like that is years away from being affordable and feasible for consumers.

 

[SRG01]

You don't think regular DVD will remain the standard until then?

Of course it will.

Just as most households don't have the luxury of a high speed internet connection, most households don't have the luxury of a HDTV, surround sound system and HD player. And guess what? most people don't see a difference (hard as it sounds to us guys)

Sadly I think HD movies in physical form will remain the preserve of people like us, movie enthusiasts. As long as someone is making them, though. I don't care where it comes from, as long as our niche group continues being supported.

You're missing a key point: US broadband only comes in two flavors -- affordable and high-speed. It's not a matter of luxury or even a class issue, but rather it comes down to a simple problem of accessibility. HD-TVs and the physical hardware needed do not have these issues.

Digital Downloads, like with the digital music revolution from a while back, will take off once downloading goes from a few hours to a few minutes. And that will not happen anytime soon (partially because of telecom belligerence).

 

[jeremy_ricci]

So most people are arguing semantics here, then. I've always considered cable subscription to be a form Digital Distribution. Why wouldn't it be?

DD the way Bill Gates wants it is a movie by movie service like XBL. Rental if you will, the ability to watch it once, and it deletes, etc. Total control, and putting anything other than that past him is giving the man too much credit. He's a greedy SOB, and if he can DRM the consumer to the ground, he will.

DD the way most think of it is 'buying' the movie, and downloading it. Not an instant on demand service that will make Bill Gates DD model literally impossible.

But even then, people will STILL want to own media, and Blu-Ray will eventually come to replace DVD's.