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[BenjaminBirdie]

It wasn't your evil twin brother you who propped up WrikaWrek's argument on the previous page. It was you.

Yes, exactly. I was following the thread of the argument which had become about the future of movie consumption. I've stated my case numerous times and it at no point predicts the collapse and failure of Blu-Ray as a viable format. Only as a dominant one.

 

[bloodydrake]

Way i see it its not just the speed of downloads thats limiting DD its the way ISPs allocate costs.
When do the DD advocates admit that your ISP is never going to allow the average consumer to download 25gigs - 50gigs a day without charging em out the ass?

Its a common thing now that if you exceed a certain amount of gigs permonth your isp will 1. charge you more. 2. cancel your service. 3 throttle your connection.

ISP's hate customers that use constant bandwidth. I don't see when this is ever going to change.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Thanks,I don't expect much, but at least we get new footage

I'm not sure if its a conference, but that is when they're suppose to roll out the games. So far it looks like Drake and LBP will be there. And in the PSblog they mentioned MGS4, although there's nothing confirmed on whether it'll actually be there.

 

[Forsete]

I'm not sure if its a conference, but that is when they're suppose to roll out the games. So far it looks like Drake and LBP will be there. And in the PSblog they mentioned MGS4, although there's nothing confirmed on whether it'll actually be there.

Drake? Are they showing already released titles?

 

[SRG01]

Way i see it its not just the speed of downloads thats limiting DD its the way ISPs allocate costs.
When do the DD advocates admit that your ISP is never going to allow the average consumer to download 25gigs - 50gigs a day without charging em out the ass?

Its a common thing now that if you exceed a certain amount of gigs permonth your isp will 1. charge you more. 2. cancel your service. 3 throttle your connection.

ISP's hate customers that use constant bandwidth. I don't see when this is ever going to change.

North American ISPs and telecoms like to make money. That's why they like to nickel and dime the consumer while simutaneously offering them poor services.

 

[Kosma]

So now that Blu Ray is clearly winning the fight has become DD (old HDDVD camp) vs. Blu Ray?

 

[Loudninja]

I'm not sure if its a conference, but that is when they're suppose to roll out the games. So far it looks like Drake and LBP will be there. And in the PSblog they mentioned MGS4, although there's nothing confirmed on whether it'll actually be there.

Yeah, I like to see more LBP.

 

[Rolf NB]

Yes, exactly. I was following the thread of the argument which had become about the future of movie consumption. I've stated my case numerous times and it at no point predicts the collapse and failure of Blu-Ray as a viable format. Only as a dominant one.

The one thing I love the most about that is that it doesn't have anything to do with tiny iPod videos being on the rise anymore. A good result.

 

[andycapps]

I'm not sure if its a conference, but that is when they're suppose to roll out the games. So far it looks like Drake and LBP will be there. And in the PSblog they mentioned MGS4, although there's nothing confirmed on whether it'll actually be there.

If it is, it'll just be old videos. Ryan Payton said they're not working on any more footage or demos for press events, just focusing on finishing the game (as they should be). I'm expecting no news out of this conference, if there's anything new then I'll be pleasantly surprised. Expecting more out of GDC.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Drake? Are they showing already released titles?

Its listed on their CES site so it looks like it'll be there. The PSEye is also listed so we might see something new there.

 

[Shig]

DD the way Bill Gates wants it is a movie by movie service like XBL. Rental if you will, the ability to watch it once, and it deletes, etc. Total control, and putting anything other than that past him is giving the man too much credit. He's a greedy SOB, and if he can DRM the consumer to the ground, he will.

Bill Gates doesn't even work at MS anymore as of yesterday night.

Also, he and his wife run a massive charity foundation.

 

[kaching]

So most people are arguing semantics here, then. I've always considered cable subscription to be a form Digital Distribution. Why wouldn't it be?

Because a basic cable subscription isn't an on-demand viewing experience, anymore than than standard OTA broadcasts since the dawn of TV are. This isn't a matter of semantics, BB, it's a matter of being uninformed about the subject matter you're trying to discuss.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

So now that Blu Ray is clearly winning the fight has become DD (old HDDVD camp) vs. Blu Ray?

Nice try, but no. I've been consistent throughout. You can't just paint a perfectly viable point of view, based on current market realities, as some kind of scorned burn mentality.

 

[avaya]

About 9½ hours away then?

Yep. 2am in mainland Europe, 1am in the UK.

 

[GauntletFan]

So now that Blu Ray is clearly winning the fight has become DD (old HDDVD camp) vs. Blu Ray?

In the marketplace, the real fight is DVD vs Blu-Ray. (Although it's not even a fight. DVD controls the market.. HD media might as well be laserdisc at the moment)

 

[Forsete]

Its listed on their CES site so it looks like it'll be there. The PSEye is also listed so we might see something new there.

Alright.. well people there needs to see what a really, really, ridiculously good looking game looks like and plays like.

Yep. 2am in mainland Europe, 1am in the UK.

Yeah, so I'll miss it. First work day tomorrow.. NOOOooos.

 

[M3Freak]

It's going take a long ass time for the HD format to actually become the new DVD, the casuals aren't used to HD, so they don't notice the difference from DVD to HD (that's what i get from experiences with my GF and parents and friends).

When I demo BD movies to people on my HT, they can clearly tell that they are watching a hi-def movie. There is no question that there is a massive jump in quality from DVD to BD.

If your circle of friends and family don't see the difference, then:

1. they're watching on a crappy HD t.v.
2. they're watching on a good HD t.v. that hasn't been tuned
3. you're watching crappy HD transfers (trust me, there are many)

I have BD movies that look 3D on my tuned Sony KDS-R50XBR1 SXRD. I really do get the "looking through a window" feeling that people talked about a lot when HD started coming out. Hell, when watching certain scenes in the Planet Earth series, I feel like I'm flying (just like the feeling you get when watching IMAX films, though with IMAX it's much more pronounced).

 

[forgeforsaken]

So now that Blu Ray is clearly winning the fight has become DD (old HDDVD camp) vs. Blu Ray?

My position on this issue has not changed.

 

[Beer Monkey]

DD the way Bill Gates wants it is a movie by movie service like XBL. Rental if you will, the ability to watch it once, and it deletes, etc. Total control, and putting anything other than that past him is giving the man too much credit. He's a greedy SOB, and if he can DRM the consumer to the ground, he will.

DD the way most think of it is 'buying' the movie, and downloading it. Not an instant on demand service that will make Bill Gates DD model literally impossible.

Nah, Bill doesn't give a shit if you can 'buy' the content, otherwise you wouldn't be allowed to 'buy' TV shows on XBLM. These models are driven by the studios and networks, and they don't put up with being told what to do (see NBC leaving iTunes). You'll certainly see movies that you can 'buy' at some point, just look for them to cost 4x as much as the stuff you essentially 'PPV' on XBLM right now.

So are people going to be okay with their movies looking worst than everyday HD programming on their new 50 HDTV?

Sadly, I think so. Some of our local channels here run two standard-def subchannels at the same time as their HD channel, and the result is lots of blocking artifacts during fast action, especially during stuff football games. Most of the 'new' HD adopters that I talk to think the picture is flawless. If they settle for this crap, they'll settle for digital downloads.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Because a basic cable subscription isn't an on-demand viewing experience, anymore than than standard OTA broadcasts since the dawn of TV are. This isn't a matter of semantics, BB, it's a matter of being uninformed about the subject matter you're trying to discuss.

I would consider On-Demand digital distribution, not a basic cable subscription. But that's because I don't have enough invested in this to actually see much of a market difference between On-Demand and something like iTunes Music Store. It's Physical Media vs. Non-Physical Media, when you boil it down.

 

[Raistlin]

Well, the arugment is similar to music

Based on usage habits (at least for people with decent-sized displays) ... the argument actually is quite different.

 

[Dirtbag]

onDemand is pretty much the same thing as DD. I thought that was understood.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

If your circle of friends and family don't see the difference, then:

1. they're watching on a crappy HD t.v.
2. they're watching on a good HD t.v. that hasn't been tuned
3. you're watching crappy HD transfers (trust me, there are many)

Sorry but none of these are true.

You are massively discounting the effect that pillarboxing has on the average television viewer, regardless of the quality of their HDTV or Calibration thereof. There are very view HD channels that are completely free from 4:3 content. And cable boxes hardcode a 16:9 HD signal, at least on my TV. This means that you can't stretch the content. And that means that you're stuck with pillarboxing. And that's an unacceptable solution for a lot of TV viewers, regardless of how they're TV is calibrated. Thus, they'll stick to standard def channels that maintain the zoom that they're using to fill the entire 16:9 screen.

 

[iceatcs]

another pop up in my head

Digital downloads never/rarely use subtitle support. It is the MAIN problem for me with my deaf.

 

[andycapps]

So now that Blu Ray is clearly winning the fight has become DD (old HDDVD camp) vs. Blu Ray?

I've always been on the Blu-ray side because of the amount of storage that it offers and it doing essentially the same things as HD-DVD. But yeah, I think the HD-DVD format is pretty much over and the supporters are either going to have to jump ship to Blu-ray, be like Baghdad Bob and say it's not over, or jump on the DD wagon. I still think that DD will be the way to go in the future, but I don't think it's that close yet unless we're talking about HD Cable On Demand. If we're talking about that, I could see that being good enough for your everyday consumer. If we're talking about DD using an HTPC and some type of Windows environment, I think that broadband speeds are 5-10 years away from that becoming a reality. If DD is the way of the future, I could see HD Cable On Demand being a holdover until broadband speeds are high enough to support an HTPC/DD model.

For me, I'll just stick with buying Blu-rays for the next few years, most likely. I like having the physical disk and knowing that I own the movie, I'm not renting it from the cable company.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

onDemand is pretty much the same thing as DD. I thought that was understood.

That's what I assumed.

 

[InterMoniker]

I wonder what the execs at Toshiba are doing right now, everyone seemed to have bailed out on them, not ONE WORD of support from either Universal, Paramount or Microsoft, they didn't even TRY to fake a commitment.

I would think they are trying to cut a deal right now and get some royalties to call it quits.

I hope they bail out sooner than later.

Sorry but none of these are true.

You are massively discounting the effect that pillarboxing has on the average television viewer, regardless of the quality of their HDTV or Calibration thereof. There are very view HD channels that are completely free from 4:3 content. And cable boxes hardcode a 16:9 HD signal, at least on my TV. This means that you can't stretch the content. And that means that you're stuck with pillarboxing. And that's an unacceptable solution for a lot of TV viewers, regardless of how they're TV is calibrated. Thus, they'll stick to standard def channels that maintain the zoom that they're using to fill the entire 16:9 screen.

Dude just give up already. It's all over.

 

[mckmas8808]

So now that Blu Ray is clearly winning the fight has become DD (old HDDVD camp) vs. Blu Ray?

Yeah sadly?

But to be fair most people on the old HD-DVD camp aren't saying this. It's just a few.

 

[Raistlin]

People who are thinking digital distribution can't succeed because of the bandwidth to move movies the size of those on a blu-ray disk are being narrow minded. DD doesn't need to match that level of quality to really succeed.

I don't think people are arguing it can't succeed ... they are arguing that it won't 'kill' physical media.

I personally, see DD as a compliment to physical media, not a replacement.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Dude just give up already. It's all over.

For HD-DVD? Obviously. Have you even read all of my posts in this thread?

 

[Dirtbag]

That's what I assumed.

But of course, if people here aknowledge onDemand their physical format arguments get weaker. An evolution of that business model would destroy physical formats.

I don't think people are arguing it can't succeed ... they are arguing that it won't 'kill' physical media.

I personally, see DD as a compliment to physical media, not a replacement.

I think physical formats are an old timer's view of the world. Your kids aren't going to care. And physical media is going to start looking pretty archaic.

 

[mckmas8808]

I personally, see DD as a compliment to physical media, not a replacement.

.

 

[WrikaWrek]

I personally, see DD as a compliment to physical media,

It will become the opposite.

 

[Raistlin]

onDemand is pretty much the same thing as DD. I thought that was understood.

Not quite, DD includes purchasing content.

 

[SolidSnakex]

It will become the opposite.

When? Because it damn sure isn't happening anytime soon.

 

[jeremy_ricci]

onDemand is pretty much the same thing as DD. I thought that was understood.

Same concept and principal, IMO, but very different business models.

 

[avaya]

When? Because it damn sure isn't happening anytime soon.

20yrs.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Not quite, DD includes purchasing content.

Physical media can be rented or bought too. I really think this is splitting hairs.

 

[GauntletFan]

I think physical formats are an old timer's view of the world. Your kids aren't going to care. And physical media is going to start looking pretty archaic.

Sadly I believe this is true. As a lover of physical media (I still go shopping for all music and DVDs) I feel it's coming to an end. I'd love to be proven wrong though, then maybe Tower Records will come back

 

[WrikaWrek]

When? Because it damn sure isn't happening anytime soon.

What's soon? I expect it to happen withing the next decade easily. I think that's pretty soon. And pretty exciting too.

 

[andycapps]

When? Because it damn sure isn't happening anytime soon.

That's the question here. When a 1080p movie with subtitles, extras, and everything I get on a Blu-ray on my cable on demand for $5 a month for unlimited titles I'll be switching over. I think that is quite a ways off though. Years.

 

[Dirtbag]

Not quite, DD includes purchasing content.

All it will take is a profile that you purchase movie licenses with that give you access to this content whenever you want.... like I said, an evolution to the business model. How can you be so short-sighted.

 

[jeremy_ricci]

Physical media can be rented or bought too. I really think this is splitting hairs.

Not really. onDemand is a part of another subscription service, with PPV (home rental) being another part of onDemand.

DD, as I see it, is purchasing digital content to own, similar to iTunes.

 

[SolidSnakex]

What's soon? I expect it to happen withing the next decade easily. I think that's pretty soon. And pretty exciting too.

By soon I mean its not happening anytime that's going to have any serious impact on how successful BR turns out to be. Which is why its pointless to bring it into this discussion.

 

[Raistlin]

I think physical formats are an old timer's view of the world. Your kids aren't going to care. And physical media is going to start looking pretty archaic.

For quality reproduction? No it won't.


For most people, there will simply not be a way to get the same level of quality by an on-demand service (assuming its ever even offered).

Secondly, OnDemand has no ownership. There are movies people like to watch a number of times ... the pricing for OnDemand makes that a poor choice.

 

[mckmas8808]

Physical media can be rented or bought too. I really think this is splitting hairs.

BB how will Warner, Sony, Paramount, etc make their money in OnDemand Cable services?

 

[spwolf]

Sorry but none of these are true.

You are massively discounting the effect that pillarboxing has on the average television viewer, regardless of the quality of their HDTV or Calibration thereof. There are very view HD channels that are completely free from 4:3 content. And cable boxes hardcode a 16:9 HD signal, at least on my TV. This means that you can't stretch the content. And that means that you're stuck with pillarboxing. And that's an unacceptable solution for a lot of TV viewers, regardless of how they're TV is calibrated. Thus, they'll stick to standard def channels that maintain the zoom that they're using to fill the entire 16:9 screen.

your tv sucks. Both of my HD Ready TV's can apply stretching to whatever source/input.

Now you are thinking that they will continue watching SD TV because of the letterbox? They wont notice the difference between SD and HD?


:lol

 

[Raistlin]

It will become the opposite.

In what way?

People are going to want certain titles at a certain level of quality ... and are going to want to own certain titles.

Whereas, for other titles ... they won't care. That seems to be the definition of a complimentary relationship.

 

[patsu]

Just one more informal item (rumor) and 1 more news:

Rumor: www.digitalbits.com

Helping HD DVD consumers

"One last note this evening: That idea I floated yesterday, that the BDA should offer an olive branch to HD-DVD consumers? I mentioned it to senior BDA executives this evening, and I think you can safely say that they're going to move forward with something along these very lines in the weeks ahead. We'll post more when we can, but the idea was definitely warmly received. In fact, plans are already in the works. We'll post more on this as things develop."



News: http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=816

"BD Magic Goes Live

ArcSoft, Inc. and Related Content Database Inc. (RCDB) have come together to create ArcSoft TotalMedia Extreme with BD Magic, an optional Blu-ray player feature that adds both a network content delivery channel and an on-screen personal media library. BD Magic featured players can receive updated Blu-ray trailers, Blu-ray sample scenes, and exclusive high-definition content direct to their Blu-ray player.

The software works by accessing a Gracenote-powered database of 50,000 DVDs and 3.6 million CDs worldwide to make recommendations and promote new related content. BD Magic will be available as a part of the ArcSoft TotalMedia Theatre software."

It seems that it is also possible BD can do DD in the future. I don't think they have to be mutually exclusive.

 

[jeremy_ricci]

All it will take is a profile that you purchase movie licenses with that give you access to this content whenever you want.... like I said, an evolution to the business model. How can you be so short-sighted.

We already see the hassle with XBL and XBLA games combined with DRM and your profile. As soon as the device crashes and you get a new one, the problems begin.

onDemand requires only a subscription service and a cablebox.

Very different. How can you be so sure DD is going to be that kind? Pirates will change that quickly.