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Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016

Did you vote for the side that is going to win?


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Ashes

Banned
Probably a stupid question... but how do we plan on reducing EU migration if we vote out of the EU? Everything I've seen on the subject seems to indicate that if we wanted to trade with the Eurozone afterwards (we do) then it's almost certain that we'd have to accept freedom of movement, like Switzerland did.

Or is the argument that we'll somehow be able to come up with a deal that doesn't have it? (I doubt this, especially given how much we'll have pissed off the EU powers that be)

Well Boris seems to think getting out of the EU will force them to negotiate a better deal for us than David Cameron could.
 

Jasup

Member
Oh dear, I knew someone would come out with that. Cameron was elected by 35000 members of the public in his local constituency, and at the last general election members of the public all over the country had the chance to vote for the party of which he is leader.

Juncker did not face any such test of the public when he was appointed as an EU president.

Mmmm, not exactly.
Juncker was EPP's lead candidate for the President in 2014 Parliamentary Elections. And as is stated in the Lisbon treaty, the biggest parliamentary group gets to nominate the President of the European Commission.

So people voted for EPP and Juncker got the job because he was the lead candidate.

Although I have very little sympathy for Juncker or the EPP, even I admit that he was elected.
 
This might well be the goal that people have in mind. But even if it is, reality shows us that no country can be forced into this. The UK is absent from a lot of the big EU integration projects (see Euro, see parts of the Schengen treaty), yet it's nevertheless a EU member and it's certainly not being bullied out of the EU. "Two-speed Europe" is already pretty much a reality, so I don't see much of an issue overall. Those that don't want the whole "United States of Europe" part, will have the ability to stay out of certain crucial integration projects anyway.

I disagree. We can only leave now because we've always kept one foot out of the door. Look at Greece - they'd like to leave but they're too entrenched now.
 
Cheers. I suspect the people favouring leaving the EU might be in for a nasty surprise if it happens then.

As I have posted before

The Guardian has it right
We hijack the agenda with our demands for special treatment in exchange for … what, exactly? The good fortune to have us still in the club.
This peculiar reasoning flows from a long-standing refusal to accept that “Europe”, as a political process, is something that participants run collectively for their mutual advantage, as opposed to something that 27 alien nations do to Britain, and which we put up with because we lack the gumption to do anything else.
Any workable application of a Brexit vote would end up looking like a partial reconstruction of EU membership. Then each segment of the coalition for leave would feel betrayed, one by one. The Tory libertarians would complain that not enough regulation had been scrapped; the hard left would find corporate capitalism still rampant; Ukip nativists would see no sudden restoration of ethnic homogeneity to the streets.
That is the tragedy of this referendum. So much is at stake. A European alliance, decades in the making, could be undermined with no obvious economic or political benefits in exchange. And no option on the ballot paper can satisfy all the people for whom the whole destructive campaign has been arranged. The leavers may get what they vote for and still never get what they want.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
That is interesting. What mandate will the UK negotiators have? The referendum just settles the decision to leave, it doesn't set which conditions are acceptable and which not. Will you do another referendum for that?
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
That is interesting. What mandate will the UK negotiators have? The referendum just settles the decision to leave, it doesn't set which conditions are acceptable and which not. Will you do another referendum for that?

You can't do it by referendum, as that will scupper our negotiating position. So it'll all be backroom political deals. About as democratic as Saudi Arabia.
 
I think that a Leave vote would force a snap general election. Except I think that Cameron brought in fixed term laws a few years ago that prevent him from easily doing that.
...just looked it up and he needs a 2/3rds majority to vote for an early election - which would be possible if Labour agree and they whip the fuck out of anyone trying to dissent.

Otherwise, the answer is that Cameron resigns, Boris or Gove take over and do whatever the fuck they want with no mandate whatsoever.

Unless Boris/Gove is really going to give the NHS another 350 million per week, prevent the free movement of people from the EU and whatever else he's claimed.
 

King_Moc

Banned
I think that a Leave vote would force a snap general election. Except I think that Cameron brought in fixed term laws a few years ago that prevent him from easily doing that.
...just looked it up and he needs a 2/3rds majority to vote for an early election - which would be possible if Labour agree and they whip the fuck out of anyone trying to dissent.

Otherwise, the answer is that Cameron resigns, Boris or Gove take over and do whatever the fuck they want with no mandate whatsoever.

Unless Boris/Gove is really going to give the NHS another 350 million per week, prevent the free movement of people from the EU and whatever else he's claimed.

Hmm... http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/aug/16/tory-mps-back-nhs-dismantling
 

Beefy

Member
Still think saying there could be another Scotland independence poll if we leave is stupid. I can see the Scots that want to leave will vote for Brexit.
 

jufonuk

not tag worthy
I want to stay . Starting to worry if the idiots get their way and we vote ourselves out.

What happens to the people living here who are working ? The non uk nationals from the EU who married uk citizens (my wife is French I am English)

Are we really that stupid to vote ourselves out ?
 
Still think saying there could be another Scotland independence poll if we leave is stupid. I can see the Scots that want to leave will vote for Brexit.

That would be a bit silly. If Scotland votes to leave the EU, and then we leave the EU, what's the rationale for another Indyref?

They'd be better off voting to Remain, hoping that the rUK carries the Leave vote and then pointing to the divergence of opinion as a basis for a new referendum.
 

Beefy

Member
That would be a bit silly. If Scotland votes to leave the EU, and then we leave the EU, what's the rationale for another Indyref?

They'd be better off voting to Remain, hoping that the rUK carries the Leave vote and then pointing to the divergence of opinion as a basis for a new referendum.

People being silly isn't a new thing. Specially when it is John Major and Blair who are saying it...

I want to stay . Starting to worry if the idiots get their way and we vote ourselves out.

What happens to the people living here who are working ? The non uk nationals from the EU who married uk citizens (my wife is French I am English)

Are we really that stupid to vote ourselves out ?

Nothing happens to them.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I think that a Leave vote would force a snap general election. Except I think that Cameron brought in fixed term laws a few years ago that prevent him from easily doing that.
...just looked it up and he needs a 2/3rds majority to vote for an early election - which would be possible if Labour agree and they whip the fuck out of anyone trying to dissent.

It only needs a simple majority on a no-confidence motion - followed by packing the chamber for 2 weeks so that nobody sneaks through a confidence motion on an adjournment. (Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 s2(3))
 
What Scotland does surely depends on what happens with the UK's relationship to the EU? If we're in a FTA with them then yeah, they can bounce. If we're not, are they going to want to leave a FTA with their largest trading partner to join one where they have way less customers for their goods?

What's wrong with you?

Some fucks need to get got, you know?
 
Is there a positive reason to leave the EU other than 'dem immigrunts are taking our jerbs'? Leave is going all out and focusing only on immigration because they know they've lost the economic argument. Also, I'd actually now prefer that the EU has an influence on our law considering that the Tories want to repeal the Human Rights Act and both the Left and Right wing parties in this country just voted for mass surveillance. I don't trust the EU parliament at all either, but at least the EU courts have protected more of our rights.
 

Carl2291

Member
I want to stay . Starting to worry if the idiots get their way and we vote ourselves out.

What happens to the people living here who are working ? The non uk nationals from the EU who married uk citizens (my wife is French I am English)

Are we really that stupid to vote ourselves out ?
Anyone here legally remains here if they wish to stay. I can't source it but I remember reading about it a couple of years back.

We aren't just going to start kicking everyone out.
 

Uzzy

Member
Is there a positive reason to leave the EU other than 'dem immigrunts are taking our jerbs'? Also, I'd actually now prefer that the EU has an influence on our law considering that the Tories want to repeal the Human Rights Act and both the Left and Right wing parties in this country just voted for mass surveillance. I don't trust the EU parliament at all either, but at least the EU courts have protected more of our rights.

Greece. Greece is the reason.
 
With all due respect, you provided a weak almost unheard of voice of concern against immigration. Not that shouting 'racist' every time helps.

What gets me frustrated is that resource management is mostly a national government problem. And honest people trying to solve the housing crisis for example have to sway the public by dealing with artificial constructs. Cutting down the EU immigration levels won't build more houses.

The UK government should take responsibility for its woes and not blame it on immigrants if and when it isn't.

I don't think the suppression of wages is either weak or unheard of.

Resource management is indeed a problem of government, which is why I intentionally avoided things like the housing crisis, public services getting overloaded etc. I was talking about the market forces which dictate wages being impacted by an expansion of the work force, which isn't a problem of national government, even though the minimum wage is an attempt to prod this equilibrium.

I am also at pains to make the point that at no stage did I "blame the immigrants" - they are, as most people are, making rational decisions when presented with their options. The vast majority work hard, contribute to the country, pay their taxes etc which is why I'm voting remain. But those rational decisions can have negative impacts on other people who are already here, and that's really rather the point; That national statistics can give you a holistic overview but the EU affects different people in different ways and it's clearly not uniformly positive for everyone which is why the aforementioned sanctimonious diatribes on Facebook (and here, and everywhere else) annoy me so much. They're demonstrate a failure to acknowledge that one person's experience isn't the same as another and an appeal to statistics doesn't change the reality of an individual's experiences.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Leave EU? Isn't the results a total of the whole of UK etc.

What he's saying is there doesn't seem to be any evidence of tactical voting in Scotland to push for Brexit in order to trigger another Sceccession referendum.
 

Beefy

Member
What he's saying is there doesn't seem to be any evidence of tactical voting in Scotland to push for Brexit in order to trigger another Sceccession referendum.

Ah ok. I can still see a few people actually doing it though. I'm not saying there will be any mass tactical voting etc. What I am saying is I can see it being very close, so every vote counts.
 

Walshicus

Member
Ah ok. I can still see a few people actually doing it though. I'm not saying there will be any mass tactical voting etc. What I am saying is I can see it being very close, so every vote counts.

The whole point of that argument requires that Scotland vote Remain while England votes Exit. It's to highlight the difference in attitudes between the two countries.
 

Tak3n

Banned
the tactics of the remain camp to try to attack Boris is a fools errand, he is quite popular and is clearly a front runner for next PM, they run the risk of a backlash
 

kmag

Member
Ok the leave campaign is something John Cleese and Armando Iannucci dreamt up together isn't it? Putting aside the crypto-racism from the likes of Farage and the occasional shot of some weird imperialist nostalgia from Gove, the Dad's Army style arrows coming from the Balkans and Turkey in their ad must be some form of clever satire.
 

Philly40

Member
Ah ok. I can still see a few people actually doing it though. I'm not saying there will be any mass tactical voting etc. What I am saying is I can see it being very close, so every vote counts.

I'm fairly certain that the percentage of remain votes in Scotland will be higher than England or Wales.

There's also a possibility that in the event of a very close split vote in England, it will be Scottish votes that decide the outcome. I'm sure that would go down well with Nigel and chums.
 

Bumhead

Banned
I've not decided which way I'm voting yet, and this is the first televised debate on the referendum I've seen.

What I will say is I don't know how the Remain campaign have the bare faced cheek and gall to claim they're running a positive campaign. Andrea Eagle in particular has been an absolute disgrace. Spent the entire time making cheap jabs at Boris, waving her pointing figure about and shouting. Absolute horror show this.
 

Hasney

Member
From the chairman of the leave campaign:

Fantastic to see so much discussion of £350 million - our official weekly EU bill. Pls keep it up IN campaign! #TotalCutThrough #ITVEURef

Constantly lying about that figure made an MP change side away from the Leave campaign, but hey, as long as that cunt is proud of the lie!
 

Beefy

Member
This debate is basically that's have a dig at Boris. Not saying it's a bad thing, but I don't see it helping.


CkiKV0mXAAADF8J.jpg
 

Faddy

Banned
What he's saying is there doesn't seem to be any evidence of tactical voting in Scotland to push for Brexit in order to trigger another Sceccession referendum.

I don't think there has been evidence of a push for tactical voting but the SNP haven't run the most prominent campaign, England based media has dominated. And similarly Brexit have hardly got a name to put on a platform in Scotland. There are relying on noted former-SNP-leader-turned-troll Jim Sillars and some no-name Lords.
 

ShogunX

Member
It's a wall of text - but certainly worth a read. Sums up the situation very well for me at least.

Owen Jones in today's Guardian -

Our country is simmering with anger and frustration. There is no shortage of social grievances that, long unaddressed by politicians, are a source of considerable bitterness. But whether it is a lack of affordable housing and secure jobs, stagnating living standards or underfunded public services, all these grievances have increasingly been seen through the prism of immigration. And that is what the passions generated by this referendum are really all about.
Consider my hometown of Stockport. Here is a post-industrial town with many problems but few immigrants. According to the last census, just over one in 20 of the town’s inhabitants were born outside Britain or Ireland. The biggest single group of foreign-born Stopfordians are Pakistanis, and they represent less than 1% of the population. People are not flocking to my beloved hometown: in fact, its population is slightly falling. And yet in the last general election immigration was enough of a concern to secure Ukip third place in Stockport. In the impending referendum, a substantial proportion of Stopfordians will vote to leave the European Union – above all, because of immigration.

The story is repeated elsewhere. Clacton is the only British constituency to have returned a Ukip MP, and yet the proportion of immigrants living there is far below the national average. London, on the other hand, is a city of immigrants: nearly four in 10 of inner London’s inhabitants are foreign-born and white British people are now a minority there. In London Ukip is a fringe party and polling suggests the capital will decisively vote remain. London is awash with social problems: a housing crisis, increasing levels of low pay and insecure employment. But these problems are not overwhelmingly seen through the prism of immigration – unlike my hometown, where the number of immigrants is low.

Take some of Stockport’s problems. Thousands of families are trapped on social housing waiting lists. Nearly a quarter of the town’s workers are paid less than the living wage, and low pay has been increasing. In the ward I grew up in, nearly one in three children live in poverty and public services are under pressure. However, while the reasons include a failure to build council housing, the lack of an industrial strategy to promote skilled secure jobs, economic policies that have slashed living standards and cut services, these culprits are not readily identified. Immigration has become a convenient framework to understand ever growing social and economic insecurities. And many of Stockport’s citizens believe that the best opportunity to overcome problems that make their lives harder is to vote to leave.

In the run-up to last year’s general election I met a woman in Southampton whose benefits had been sanctioned. She had been driven to food banks. But she did not blame the government’s policies on social security, she blamed immigrants, because she believed they were taking jobs, leaving her with insufficient job interviews to satisfy the jobcentre. This is not to berate her, or my fellow Stopfordians. This is the fault of people like me.

We have failed to present a compelling story about the causes of the social problems that scar British society. We have argued that these are the consequences of a nation rigged in favour of a tiny elite; a society that prioritises market forces over human needs and aspirations. But if people even heard us, they were not convinced. And in that vacuum immigration has become a catch-all explanation for grievance after grievance. Whatever the result in two weeks, this referendum is only cementing the role of immigration as the root of injustice.

The leave campaign knows all this as it continues to conjure up demons that will be difficult to lay to rest. It is offering dishonesty, snake oil and outright deception. Those expecting that a British exit from the EU will diminish the insecurities they face have an unpleasant surprise in store. Most immigrants come from outside the EU. The leave campaign argues that non-EU immigrants are discriminated against – if the leavers are not being disingenuous, this means that the number of non-EU immigrants would increase after Brexit. In fact we are forced to employ immigrants because of government policies: last year Britain was recruiting one in four nurses abroad after slashing nurse training places.

One of the main concerns about immigration is a fear of wages being undercut. But agency workers are only guaranteed the same rights as full-time workers because of our membership of the European Union and its agency workers directive. The Conservative party resisted the implementation of this directive, and a future rightwing Tory government led by Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Fuckwitted Pob lookalike Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith would cast it on to the bonfire, along with other workers’ rights – so allowing the wholesale undercutting of wages.

The leave campaign even cynically toys with the rhetoric of leftwing populism. Its opponents are bashed for being the stooges of Goldman Sachs: the very people who zealously oppose limits to bank bonuses, and champion deregulation and lower taxes for the City of London.
If Britain leaves the EU, the people I grew up with will not see social housing waiting lists diminish, because the Conservative government will not build the council housing we need. They will not see secure jobs materialise, because there will be no industrial strategy to create them. They will not enjoy a surge in living standards, because the cuts policy will only be accelerated. A vote for leave has become a vote to slash immigration to solve Britain’s multiple problems. Searing disappointment awaits.

Jeremy Corbyn is berated for not speaking loudly enough for remain, and for not making common cause with the prime minister. But emulating Scotland’s Better Together campaign – where Labour linked arms with the Tories in a campaign of fear – could have calamitous results, with Eurosceptic Labour voters being lost to Ukip. Still, whatever the result, Labour has much to fear, for years of mounting social and economic insecurities have been funnelled into opposition to immigration. Ukip hungrily eyes Labour’s support base for tasty morsels. Corbyn’s party will have to address the bitterness shaped by this referendum – and do it fast.
 
Boris: "you'd rather be ruled by Brussels than London".

Fuck this guy and his colonial inbred thinking. Nobody wants to be "ruled" by anyone. Cunt.
 

Humidex

Member
Ok the leave campaign is something John Cleese and Armando Iannucci dreamt up together isn't it? Putting aside the crypto-racism from the likes of Farage and the occasional shot of some weird imperialist nostalgia from Gove, the Dad's Army style arrows coming from the Balkans and Turkey in their ad must be some form of clever satire.

Honestly thought Chris Morris decided to step back into TV programming.

What a bizarre political broadcast.
 
I have a question. Many people are assuming that UK will get a deal with the EU that will be somewhat similar to what Swiss or Norway got. What if the EU says that they want to make an example to leavers? What if EU treats UK with economic sanctions similar to russia or iran?

I find it funny that many people assume that EU is a vicious monster when UK stays in but will become a friendly neighbour if they leave. Wouldnt it be quite the opposite (in particular since EU doesnt want more leavers?)?
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
I have a question. Many people are assuming that UK will get a deal with the EU that will be somewhat similar to what Swiss or Norway got. What if the EU says that they want to make an example to leavers?

France already more or less has said this. For two reasons. First, if you can get as good of a deal outside EU as you get if you're in EU, then that's incentive for more to leave and secondly a good deal will make Le Pen president.

A very recent article about this: http://www.politico.eu/article/fran...m-consequences-europe-hollande-david-cameron/
 
France already more or less has said this. For two reasons. First, if you can get as good of a deal outside EU as you get if you're in EU, then that's incentive for more to leave and secondly a good deal will make Le Pen president.

A very recent article about this: http://www.politico.eu/article/fran...m-consequences-europe-hollande-david-cameron/

I think germany would be on the same boat mainly because frankfurt may profit a lot as the new financial centre of europe (ECB is already there).

I mean just make the process of shifting capital from accounts in UK to EU under some arbital tax, contingent or license procedure and many banks will just leave UK.
 

Carl2291

Member
Seems like popular opinion on social media is with leave after the ITV debates. I've yet to watch this one, but Boris is getting some hefty praise online for the night.
 

liquidtmd

Banned
What I will say is I don't know how the Remain campaign have the bare faced cheek and gall to claim they're running a positive campaign. Andrea Eagle in particular has been an absolute disgrace. Spent the entire time making cheap jabs at Boris, waving her pointing figure about and shouting. Absolute horror show this.

Yup.

I'm not enamoured with either of the camps approaches but Jesus wept, the Remain camp on ITV tonight was downright disgraceful.

At least in the final wrap up, the two women in the Leave vote at least tried to summarise with a 'This is why you should...' conclusion - all three in the Remain camp spent their individual wrap ups full on bitching at the Leave representatives, almost on a personal level.

I've been on the fence for weeks and am edging towards Remain from my own background reading but these cretins running the campaign...the more they perform like that, I swear to god the more they will drive hanging voters to Vote Leave
 

mclem

Member
Ok the leave campaign is something John Cleese and Armando Iannucci dreamt up together isn't it? Putting aside the crypto-racism from the likes of Farage and the occasional shot of some weird imperialist nostalgia from Gove, the Dad's Army style arrows coming from the Balkans and Turkey in their ad must be some form of clever satire.

Seriously?

This makes even less sense than I thought it did.

Germany is advancing while being in the EU, and we want to stop them by running away?

If this is trying to appeal to historical patriotism, it falls rather flat.
I think they're basically trying to evoke the intro to Dad's Army.

BRB, off to claim to be the new Derren Brown.
 
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