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[SporeCrawler]

I think germany would be on the same boat mainly because frankfurt may profit a lot as the new financial centre of europe (ECB is already there).

I mean just make the process of shifting capital from accounts in UK to EU under some arbital tax, contingent or license procedure and many banks will just leave UK.

So schäuble made it clear

If you are out you are out. If you are in you are in.

They will not accept swiss or norway status for UK.

Schäuble also mentioned that they will be extra harsh on UK to prevent anyone else from leaving.

But hey souvereignity is totally worth it

 

[ClosingADoor]

Not really, member states do set their own VAT levels but they have to comply with the EU VAT directive.

If you want to do trade, helps that one of the most important taxes on goods around play within a certain set of rules. But you are free to put it at 10% or 20% or whatever. Saying stuff like "I don't need 1/28 of a say in Slovakias tea VAT" is just nonsense. It is trying to ridicule things that aren't even true.

I didn't say they were! You seem to have missed my point there.

What is the point then? You never get a 100% say in what happens in your country. That is why we elect people to do the job. And you elect the people in the EU or the people you elected in your country appoint them, just like they do for positions in your own country. I don't vote on trade regulation, tax laws, who gets to run department X or Y. And neither do I want to.

 

[Stereogatari]

How exactly will the UK have any increased sovereignty when leaving the EU, but still wanting open borders for trade and such? This means you'll have to adopt the rules from the EU for that, which is by far the bulk of all regulation coming from the EU.

I admit I'm not 100% clued in. But to me, it would feel better to have less layers at the top. Right now we are ruled by Brussels and by Westminster. Occam's Razor kind of thing.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

If you want to do trade, helps that one of the most important taxes on goods around play within a certain set of rules. But you are free to put it at 10% or 20% or whatever. Saying stuff like "I don't need 1/28 of a say in Slovakias tea VAT" is just nonsense. It is trying to ridicule things that aren't even true.

What is the point then? You never get a 100% say in what happens in your country. That is why we elect people to do the job. And you elect the people in the EU or the people you elected in your country appoint them, just like they do for positions in your own country. I don't vote on trade regulation, tax laws, who gets to run department X or Y. And neither do I want to.

That's a nice way of putting it...

As to the point, the point was that even if you agree with the laws set, you can still disagree with the mechanism by which those laws are set. It's a legitimate grievance. I thought my "imagine a benevolent dictator" thing summed it up quite well but apparently not.

I'll try again. Say I'm a Conservative voter. I agree with all the laws set by the current Tory government. I think they're great!

I can still disagree with FPTP and support proportional representation. Does that make more sense?

 

[ClosingADoor]

I admit I'm not 100% clued in. But to me, it would feel better to have less layers at the top. Right now we are ruled by Brussels and by Westminster. Occam's Razor kind of thing.

If you want less government, I'd sooner look at eliminating the layers in your own country actually.

With this argument, it would also be better of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland just started governing themselves without Westminster having any say.

That's a nice way of putting it...

As to the point, the point was that even if you agree with the laws set, you can still disagree with the mechanism by which those laws are set. It's a legitimate grievance. I thought my "imagine a benevolent dictator" thing summed it up quite well but apparently not.

I'll try again. Say I'm a Conservative voter. I agree with all the laws set by the current Tory government. I think they're great!

I can still disagree with FPTP and support proportional representation. Does that make more sense?

Then your problem isn't so much with the EU itself, but how you elect the people there? That is a whole other discussion then just leaving the EU. I'd agree that a bit more voting power to the public there wouldn't hurt. Sadly, the public isn't actually that interested in voting for the European Parliament already, judging by the numbers in which they show up.

 

[Best]

Are we also going to get rid of the House of Lords and move to PR whilst we are all drinking this democracy cool aid. I swear most people instinctively take a stance and backwards rationalise it, rather than looking at any evidence or having any fundamental beliefs or ideals.

During the IndyRef, most of England was giving Scotland lectures on how if they don't like the UK they should stay in it to reform it. Similarly how fucked they'd be outside the EU if they left the UK. And now the EU is a terrible thing that can't be reformed.

 

[Beefy]

I want to remain in the EU and know it isn't perfect. But I still have a weird feeling the EU will crumble in a few years. Any one else feel this?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Are we also going to get rid of the House of Lords and move to PR whilst we are all drinking this democracy cool aid. I swear most people instinctively take a stance and backwards rationalise it, rather than looking at any evidence or having any fundamental beliefs or ideals.

During the IndyRef, most of England was giving Scotland lectures on how if they don't like the UK they should stay in it to reform it. Similarly how fucked they'd be outside the EU if they left the UK.

Actually, I think the bit of England giving Scotland lectures on how to reform largely are Bremain. Brexit overlaps more with the "fuck off Scotland you jobbies" camp.

 

[Hasney]

I want to remain in the EU and know it isn't perfect. But I still have a weird feeling the EU will crumble in a few years. Any one else feel this?

It would only crumble if even more countries left. It's bigger than the UK and the Netherlands leaving if they do. I'm pretty sure that it will still be here for the duration of my lifetime.

 

[ClosingADoor]

It would only crumble if even more countries left. It's bigger than the UK and the Netherlands leaving if they do. I'm pretty sure that it will still be here for the duration of my lifetime.

Problem is, if more leave, that would probably be countries that are net contributors to the budget. Poorer countries at this moment have no motivation to leave. So that does bring with it a share of problems and less power in the world.

 

[kurisu2001]

Sovereignity. Such a quaint, 18th century idea.

Good luck.

 

[Hasney]

Problem is, if more leave, that would probably be countries that are net contributors to the budget. Poorer countries at this moment have no motivation to leave. So that does bring with it a share of problems and less power in the world.

I agree, but I think it would survive it. Although if the main opponents left, they would go to a full integrated state system a lot quicker which could offset some of that.

 

[Thejackburton]

One thing that annoys me is the crock of shit Cameron says that by staying in the eu it can be reformed. Reformed into what? Other than a sound bite he can repeat over and over.

Eu has been constantly pushing for ever tighter Union, it's going the opposite way of reforming.

 

[hodgy100]

One thing that annoys me is the crock of shit Cameron says that by staying in the eu it can be reformed. Reformed into what? Other than a sound bite he can repeat over and over.

Eu has been constantly pushing for ever tighter Union, it's going the opposite way of reforming.

depends what their view of a tighter union is, I'm not inherently against it.

 

[KingSnake]

I agree, but I think it would survive it. Although if the main opponents left, they would go to a full integrated state system a lot quicker which could offset some of that.

This is also my view. Without UK being the constant pain in the ass, EU will consolidate much faster if it survives the wave of inner extremism in the next years. A bloody aftermath of an eventual Brexit would greatly help with that.

 

[hodgy100]

This is also my view. Without UK being the constant pain in the ass, EU will consolidate much faster if it survives the wave of inner extremism in the next years. A bloody aftermath of an eventual Brexit would greatly help with that.

I wish our country wasnt so opposed with the rest of the EU I really do...

 

[kmag]

I'd be happy for London to be a city state. We'd be extremely rich and get to laugh at all the plebs outside our borders. Well, more than we do now.

When you're out the EU, it'll be those fuckers in Frankfurt who'll be doing the laughing.

 

[Goodlife]

This is also my view. Without UK being the constant pain in the ass, EU will consolidate much faster if it survives the wave of inner extremism in the next years. A bloody aftermath of an eventual Brexit would greatly help with that.

Yep.
This is the one nagging thing that's telling me I should vote leave.

We (the UK) are very much not European. We don't get (IMHO) involved in the things we should be (Greece, migrants). We always seem to be on the outside throwing stones in.

I think us being out would help the EU and I think that's a good thing for my European Neighbours

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Yep.
This is the one nagging thing that's telling me I should vote leave.

We (the UK) are very much not European. We don't get (IMHO) involved in the things we should be (Greece, migrants). We always seem to be on the outside throwing stones in.

I think us being out would help the EU and I think that's a good thing for my European Neighbours

What should we have done about that??

When you're out the EU, it'll be those fuckers in Frankfurt who'll be doing the laughing.

I dimly remember "Everything will move to Frankfurt" being a thing back when we didn't join the Euro, but it never panned out.

 

[fizzelopeguss]

Eurotrash is coming back. lol

 

[Uzzy]

So Wolfgang Schäuble feels that the UK wouldn't have access to the single market following Brexit.

In an interview in a Brexit-themed issue of German weekly Der Spiegel, the influential veteran politician ruled out the possibility of the UK following a Swiss or Norwegian model where it could enjoy the benefits of the single market without being an EU member.

“That won’t work,” Schäuble told Der Spiegel. “It would require the country to abide by the rules of a club from which it currently wants to withdraw.

“If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.”

He also mentioned that further integration in response to Brexit wasn't likely.

“In response to Brexit, we couldn’t simply call for more integration,” he is quoted as saying. “That would be crude; many would rightfully wonder ­whether we politicians still haven’t understood.

“Even in the event that only a small majority of the British voters reject a withdrawal, we would have to see it as a wake-up call and a warning not to continue with business as usual. Either way, we have to take a serious look at reducing bureaucracy in Europe.”

 

[kmag]

What should we have done about that??



I dimly remember "Everything will move to Frankfurt" being a thing back when we didn't join the Euro, but it never panned out.

One city would you access to the EEC, one would not. Like it or lump it that's a major change for financial institutions to swallow and restructure around. Any negotiated access to the EEC could see the likes of Germany clearly target the UK financial sector. That's not scaremongering, that's simple realpolitik. The notion that the UK could tell the EU to eff off, then immediately turn around and demand preferential access on essentially the same terms is fanciful, the EU would have to press the boot to UK's throat simply to protect the project.

 

[CyclopsRock]

So Wolfgang Schäuble feels that the UK wouldn't have access to the single market following Brexit.



He also mentioned that further integration in response to Brexit wasn't likely.

I wonder if it's grandstanding or a genuine threat? Part of me thinks that, in the event of an exit, there's really no good reason for them to conduct such a policy of refusing to let us have a Norway solution, other than a sort of pour encourages les autres affair.

 

[Frankfurter]

So Wolfgang Schäuble feels that the UK wouldn't have access to the single market following Brexit.



He also mentioned that further integration in response to Brexit wasn't likely.

He is basically saying what any no-Brexit person has said all the time. Leaving the EU and then still having access to the single market would only work if the UK would still comply with EU rules. But the reason it wants to leave is, because it doesn't want to comply with those rules anymore.

I wonder if it's grandstanding or a genuine threat? Part of me thinks that, in the event of an exit, there's really no good reason for them to conduct such a policy of refusing to let us have a Norway solution, other than a sort of pour encourages les autres affair.

Reread what Schäuble said. It's not that he (or the EU as a whole) wouldn't wanna give the UK a Norway-like deal. The issue is that the UK probably wouldn't want it.

 

[ClosingADoor]

I wonder if it's grandstanding or a genuine threat? Part of me thinks that, in the event of an exit, there's really no good reason for them to conduct such a policy of refusing to let us have a Norway solution, other than a sort of pour encourages les autres affair.

If the majority of the British people don't want in the EU, why would they want in EFTA and still follow regulations from Brussels that they are so against apparently?

 

[tomtom94]

Pretty sure even Gove and Johnson are now arguing Britain won't have access to the single market if it leaves.

 

[kmag]

I wonder if it's grandstanding or a genuine threat? Part of me thinks that, in the event of an exit, there's really no good reason for them to conduct such a policy of refusing to let us have a Norway solution, other than a sort of pour encourages les autres affair.

Why would anyone want to leave and have a Norway style relationship though? It's literally the worst of both worlds, almost all the same laws and rules, a similar cost per capita and absolutely no say or veto?

I think there would be a negotiated free trade agreement, but it'd be a line item agreement with a bunch of industries and sectors being winners and losers. The question is how long that agreement would take to enact and under what terms would the relationship continue under in the interim. It's in the EU's interests to make it so arduous that no other member would look to leave so I couldn't see a quick solution. It took 7 years of active negotiation for the EU and Canada to come to an agreement.

If we end up under WTO rules for any length of time, then the service sector especially the financial sector would really suffer under GATS (WTO's services rules). GATT (for goods) is comparatively less punitive.

 

[Orniletter]

If the majority of the British people don't want in the EU, why would they want in EFTA and still follow regulations from Brussels that they are so against apparently?

Because they want to leech off it's objective strengths (bargaining power with the likes of Russia and China, free access to the huge continental European markets) without carrying some of the union's weight (regardless of how great a deal they got in the first place).

 

[ClosingADoor]

Because they want to leech off it's objective strengths (bargaining power with the likes of Russia and China, free access to the huge continental European markets) without carrying some of the union's weight (regardless of how great a deal they got in the first place).

If they want to pay the same per capita as now for less say in the process and still obligated to use 3/4 of the regulation the EU wants, go right ahead I guess (http://infacts.org/norwegians-pay-same-brits-eu-access/). It will be an idiotic decision for the UK with years of economic impact, but maybe they'll be happy with their "sovereignty".

 

[CharmingCharlie]

“Even in the event that only a small majority of the British voters reject a withdrawal, we would have to see it as a wake-up call and a warning not to continue with business as usual. Either way, we have to take a serious look at reducing bureaucracy in Europe.”

As a leave voter this would be my preferable outcome. I don't have any strong views on immigration, I don't care if we are in or out of the single market and as for free movement I couldn't care less. What I do care about is that I do not want to become part of some shitty United States of Europe which is why I am voting to leave now.

I believe this is the UK's final chance to get out of the EU before it becomes a bastardised Single "country". Another 10 - 15 years from now it will be too late for the UK to leave, we have to do it now.

Now if remain narrowly win then we might get the brakes put on this United States of Europe crap. If we vote to leave I am fine with that (though it won't happen). The dangerous result to me is if remain win by a landslide that is when things will really go down the shitter.

 

[ClivePwned]

based on this thread alone, I can't see Remain winning.

 

[Maledict]

based on this thread alone, I can't see Remain winning.

Based on internet traffic, Scotland is an independent country, Bernie sanders won the democratic nomination and Donald Trump has already won the presidency.

 

[Undead]

based on this thread alone, I can't see Remain winning.

Bookies are the ones to watch, I could put £10 on remain and win about £3 or put £10 on exit and win about £25.
Bookies know people are fucking with the polls again, hell I know people that are fucking with them by saying leave when they are actually going to vote remain

 

[ClivePwned]

Based on internet traffic, Scotland is an independent country, Bernie sanders won the democratic nomination and Donald Trump has already won the presidency.

good to know.

 

[Izuna]

based on this thread alone, I can't see Remain winning.

I would puke, and blame everything on Corbyn.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

based on this thread alone, I can't see Remain winning.

Really? I haven't counted but it looks like there are more Remainers than Leavers in this thread.

And I think I remember a poll on Gaf a while back that came back like 80/20 in favour of Remain.

Of course, the demographics of Gaf are nothing like the demographics of the voting UK public, so I don't think it really tells you anything anyway.

 

[Best]

Actually, I think the bit of England giving Scotland lectures on how to reform largely are Bremain. Brexit overlaps more with the "fuck off Scotland you jobbies" camp.

I think there's an overlap between the nationalistic "We're Great Britain, we'll just trade with the commonwealth" types and those that wanted Union to be preserved.

As a leave voter this would be my preferable outcome. I don't have any strong views on immigration, I don't care if we are in or out of the single market and as for free movement I couldn't care less. What I do care about is that I do not want to become part of some shitty United States of Europe which is why I am voting to leave now.

I believe this is the UK's final chance to get out of the EU before it becomes a bastardised Single "country". Another 10 - 15 years from now it will be too late for the UK to leave, we have to do it now.

Now if remain narrowly win then we might get the brakes put on this United States of Europe crap. If we vote to leave I am fine with that (though it won't happen). The dangerous result to me is if remain win by a landslide that is when things will really go down the shitter.

You do realise that if any more power was to be transferred from Westminster to Brussels, it'd automatically be put to a referendum? There's absolutely no way we end up in a United States of Europe unless the people vote for it.

 

[Spuck-uk]

I want to remain in the EU and know it isn't perfect. But I still have a weird feeling the EU will crumble in a few years. Any one else feel this?

No, and I don't gamble with the future of the country I live in based on 'weird feelings'

 

[Spuck-uk]

based on this thread alone, I can't see Remain winning.

Based on the people I know IRL, I can't see leave getting more than .5% of the vote.

I'm still massively confused as to any possible advantage to leaving that doesn't boil down to 'muh nationalism', or 'I really don't like foreigns'

 

[KooopaKid]

100% guaranteed UK will stay.

 

[Chinner]

100% guaranteed UK will stay.

Id rather the fear continue so that all possible remain voters vote.

 

[SporeCrawler]

What should we have done about that??



I dimly remember "Everything will move to Frankfurt" being a thing back when we didn't join the Euro, but it never panned out.

Becaus London is part of the unified european financial/ capital market. UK capital can be transferred freely from Uk to rest of EU and vice versa. Once London is severed from the european financial/capital market any crossborder transaction will require permitts, licenses and possibly taxes

 

[ClivePwned]

I guess we'll see.

fingers crossed.

 

[Exterminieren]

based on this thread alone, I can't see Remain winning.

I would still be pretty astonished if it didn't.

Leave would need a significant lead in the polls to counteract the conservatism and hedging of the last few days of the cycle, and it simply hasn't- in the best polls for Leave, they're slightly ahead in a neck and neck race, and I simply don't see that holding in the final days before the vote.

 

[danowat]

100% guaranteed UK will stay.

What drives you to this conclusion?

If I did a straw poll of people I know, leave would win by a landslide, I know it's not representative of the general population, but being a lone voice in a sea of hate for the EU is a little bit worrying.

I wish I had your certainty.

 

[Ghost]

I think getting the Germans in to underline what will actually happen when we leave is a really good idea because the Brexit campaign has done a fantastic job of making people believe shitty politicians who are more interested in political grandstanding than making sensible decisions only exist in the UK (+Trump).

Brexit will brush it off as more project fear though.

Really does feel to me like momentum is on the Brexit side, but it is hard to tell if that's just my brain subconsciously reminding me of the general election and how eagerly the British public votes for promises that can't be delivered.

 

[Psychotext]

Believe it or not, this isn't satire:

 

[Carbonox]

Based on the people I know IRL, I can't see leave getting more than .5% of the vote.

I'm still massively confused as to any possible advantage to leaving that doesn't boil down to 'muh nationalism', or 'I really don't like foreigns'

Based on the people I know in real life, I can't see "remain" getting more than .5% of the vote. I know far too many fucking people whose view boils down to precisely what you just said:

" 'muh nationalism', or 'I really don't like foreigns' "

It's sad. You could throw every fact under the sun at them and it would just devolve in to "I don't think so, imo".

Oh well.

 

[Exterminieren]

Brexiteers tend to be the loudest and have the most passion, but that doesn't mean they have all the numbers.

Again, Scotland.

 

[danowat]

Believe it or not, this isn't satire:

I'm confused, these are bad things?