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Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016

Did you vote for the side that is going to win?

Results are only viewable after voting.
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Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Jam_Sandwich said:
I hated that leave leaflet they posted out and the reason they cited.

Reason "85% of the British Public want more information so as to make an informed decision"

Result "A leaflet stating why we should stay in the EU"

Christ.

Yes I know the Government support it.
But a bit of impartiality wouldn't have gone amiss seeing as we have an official in/out team
Click to expand...

Makes a bit of a farce of the whole system of having official campaigns with spending limits. The UK govt can have a view, but I take umbrage on them spending taxpayer money on what is clearly a pro-remain campaign, and circumventing the spending limits by not being an official campaign. At the very least, it runs completely contrary to the principles of good conduct established in the Venice Commission, of which the UK is a full member.
 
A

aygomyownroad

Member
I am going to keep an eye on this thread, but I will be honest I think we are leaving the EU.

Older generation will be the ones who will vote, the youth simply can't be bothered I feel.

I never vote in anything other than the General Election and Independence vote in Scotland.

The votes for EU MPS I never vote and turnout is always very low. I think it will be the same here.

I don't know what way I will vote but there isn't much information to see what the pros and cons are of leaving, Both sides are doing poorly to win my vote.
 
J

JonathanEx

Member
QuicheFontaine said:
Ok, so now that Vote Leave has been awarded as the official Leave campaign, apparently Leave.EU is going to apply for judicial review of the Electoral Commission's decision?

Apparently this could delay the referendum until 23 October?? Am I hearing this right? What sort of shitshow is this where they leave it so late to allocate official campaigns that an appeal can push back the actual date of the referendum? It's bonkers!
Click to expand...

SAD NEWS EVERYONE.

Arron Banks will not be launching a judicial review. We're not delayed until October.
 
T

tomtom94

Member
JonathanEx said:
SAD NEWS EVERYONE.

Arron Banks will not be launching a judicial review. We're not delayed until October.
Click to expand...

Thank fuck. I suspect even he realised that that was a bad idea.

Corbyn's speech is the main headline on the BBC and can perhaps unsurprisingly be summarised as "If we leave the EU then there's nobody to stop the Tories".
 
A

Auctopus

Member
Me and all my friends are voting to stay in but I just don't see it happening.

The young won't turn out to vote and the euro-phobic older generation will come out in their droves to save themselves from the terrorist refugees.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
tomtom94 said:
Thank fuck. I suspect even he realised that that was a bad idea.

Corbyn's speech is the main headline on the BBC and can perhaps unsurprisingly be summarised as "If we leave the EU then there's nobody to stop the Tories".
Click to expand...

Well god knows the Opposition isn't up to it.

Edit:

Auctopus said:
Me and all my friends are voting to stay in but I just don't see it happening.

The young won't turn out to vote and the euro-phobic older generation will come out in their droves to save themselves from the terrorist refugees.
Click to expand...

It's going to be extremely close. Most polls since the New Year have put Remain ahead, but the gap seems to be narrowing (plenty of polls put Leave ahead, but fewer). Weighting for likelihood to vote, i.e. self-reported "I will definitely vote / might vote / not fussed", shifts it in Leave's favour, but will it be enough?

Personally, I think it's anyone's guess on the day, regardless of how many polls there are between now and then.

Edit2:

Of the 52 polls conducted in 2016 listed on the wiki page, the breakdown is:

Remain wins: 32
Leave wins: 16
Draw: 4

(I can actually hear Crab shouting at his computer in Wales about how you shouldn't lump all the polls in together like this)
 
I

Izuna

Banned
Auctopus said:
Me and all my friends are voting to stay in but I just don't see it happening.

The young won't turn out to vote and the euro-phobic older generation will come out in their droves to save themselves from the terrorist refugees.
Click to expand...

I like how the poor thinks that voting us out the EU will make living in England more affordable.

/s, just in case
 
L

Lucreto

Member
It's hard to believe any of these polls after the last general election. The Tory's getting a majority didn't appear on some of the polls during the election.

I think the media are playing up "a too close to call" scenario to push more papers and clicks.
I have heard polls where Leave have 60% of the vote and the most recent one I heard from "polling experts" that there is only a 25% chance of Britain leaving.
 
S

Sheentak

Member
I think the turn out will determine if we stay or leave. People how want to leave are so much more passionate than people who want to stay.
Even though i want to stay tbh its something i barely think about compared to people i know who want to leave the EU.
Somebody i used to work with on FB just goes on and on about leaving
 
M

Maledict

Member
In terms of enthusiasm, remember that that when the AV vote was up the people who were passionate were in favour of a new election system and they got crushed. Enthusiasm doesn't always determine voting patterns (just like in the Scottish referendum), and getting people to vote for massive change is always hard.

I've just been informed by our legal team that I can't campaign as I'm in a politically restricted post. Which is an ass - I was hoping it wouldn't apply and for once I'd actually be able to volunteer and do something (For the Stay In campaign). Seems a weird decision as its not a party political issue, but am sure it will affect other public sector workers as well.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Lucreto said:
It's hard to believe any of these polls after the last general election. The Tory's getting a majority didn't appear on some of the polls during the election.

I think the media are playing up "a too close to call" scenario to push more papers and clicks.
I have heard polls where Leave have 60% of the vote and the most recent one I heard from "polling experts" that there is only a 25% chance of Britain leaving.
Click to expand...

Some? Did any polls show that a Tory majority on the cards?

It's a lot more difficult to poll for a GE though, the FPTP thing means that national voteshare can be nowhere near national MP-share. A simple binary choice like this is much easier to poll.

It must be said that the polls leading up to the Scottish referendum were actually pretty accurate if you just disregarded outliers. The final result there wasn't really a huge upset, and several people on the site (cough, me) actually called it bang on the day before in the GAF thread about it. I'm sure we'll do a similar thing in this thread nearer the day!

Maledict said:
In terms of enthusiasm, remember that that when the AV vote was up the people who were passionate were in favour of a new election system and they got crushed. Enthusiasm doesn't always determine voting patterns (just like in the Scottish referendum), and getting people to vote for massive change is always hard.

I've just been informed by our legal team that I can't campaign as I'm in a politically restricted post. Which is an ass - I was hoping it wouldn't apply and for once I'd actually be able to volunteer and do something (For the Stay In campaign). Seems a weird decision as its not a party political issue, but am sure it will affect other public sector workers as well.
Click to expand...

You can still post in this thread though. That's surely the main thing.
 
W

Walshicus

Member
It's kind of funny to think that years from now we've a good chance of looking back at this as the year we voted in favor of recession.
 
K

Kathian

Banned
Sir Fragula said:
It's kind of funny to think that years from now we've a good chance of looking back at this as the year we voted in favor of recession.
Click to expand...

End of the day if we listened to some quarters NOTHING would change. Things end up where they are and long term its the things we can't prepare for that should concern us.

The main issue is Leave do not have a singular plan or idea. Even if we leave they might not be happy.
 
D

Dougald

Member
Maledict said:
In terms of enthusiasm, remember that that when the AV vote was up the people who were passionate were in favour of a new election system and they got crushed. Enthusiasm doesn't always determine voting patterns (just like in the Scottish referendum), and getting people to vote for massive change is always hard.
Click to expand...

To be fair, I don't think anyone *really* wanted AV, as much as they hated FPTP. AV was a horrible, convoluted compromise that had no serious chance of winning. I can't stand FPTP and even I hesitated voting against it in the polling booth

At least the referendum will be proportional! A rare election where I won't spoil my ballot
 
R

RedShift

Member
It's going to be very annoying if the older generation vote us out and we're left with the shitty economy while they all retire.

Then when the economy falls apart again they can demand we cut funding to anything that benefits the youth to protect their pensions.

God I hate that the older generation are such a political force.
 
U

Uzzy

Member
RedShift said:
It's going to be very annoying if the older generation vote us out and we're left with the shitty economy while they all retire.

Then when the economy falls apart again they can demand we cut funding to anything that benefits the youth to protect their pensions.

God I hate that the older generation are such a political force.
Click to expand...

Don't hate them for bothering to turn out to vote. Hate the people who don't even bother to do that.
 
H

Hasney

Member
RedShift said:
It's going to be very annoying if the older generation vote us out and we're left with the shitty economy while they all retire.

Then when the economy falls apart again they can demand we cut funding to anything that benefits the youth to protect their pensions.

God I hate that the older generation are such a political force.
Click to expand...

Their pensions are always getting cut anyway though. We'll all have to work to 85 at this rate.
 
J

Jimbob Smalls

Banned
RedShift said:
It's going to be very annoying if the older generation vote us out and we're left with the shitty economy while they all retire.

Then when the economy falls apart again they can demand we cut funding to anything that benefits the youth to protect their pensions.

God I hate that the older generation are such a political force.
Click to expand...

The older generation have lived through times of double digit interest and inflation rates, when large swathes of the country sent their kids to school to get a hot shower with holes in their shoes and clothes.

They know what can happen when politicians get too big for their boots.
 
J

Jimbob Smalls

Banned
Sir Fragula said:
I see no evidence of that. I mean what does it even mean in this context?


If anything they bias towards 'strongmen' and authoritarianism.
Click to expand...

The older generation have seen politicians who were happy to inflict severe economic pain in the pursuit of their beliefs. Thatcher for instance without sparking another debate.

I don't think the banks would have been bailed out in the 80s either.

There's not a politician in existence who would dare do anything thing like that anymore... The older generation have seen everything at the extreme and ultimately we got through it, for the better in some cases.

These days everyone freaks out because the currency drops a bit or interest goes up 0.5%.
 
T

tomtom94

Member
Jimbob Smalls said:
The older generation have seen politicians who were happy to inflict severe economic pain in the pursuit of their beliefs. Thatcher for instance without sparking another debate.

I don't think the banks would have been bailed out in the 80s either.

There's not a politician in existence who would dare do anything thing like that anymore... The older generation have seen everything at the extreme and ultimately we got through it, for the better in some cases.

These days everyone freaks out because the currency drops a bit or interest goes up 0.5%.
Click to expand...

I disagree with you on the grounds that Osborne and Cameron are literally doing things (privatising Royal Mail etc) that Thatcher would never have done.

Buuuuut we're getting very off topic.
 
P

Phantast2k

Member
DW poll: Most Germans oppose ′Brexit′ | Germany | DW.COM | 14.04.2016

The majority of Germans want Great Britain to stay in the EU. That's what an exclusive DW survey conducted by polling institute infratest dimap shows. Germans are not so sure how Britons will actually decide, though.

xw1nJO9.png


yBFMe6n.png


REBembl.png
Click to expand...

You better listen to what we say or else
we take Scotland.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
Kathian said:
The main issue is Leave do not have a singular plan or idea. Even if we leave they might not be happy.
Click to expand...

No doubt about that. For one they all have very different reasons to leave and they will see soon enough that leaving the EU hasn't actually improved their lives one bit. And everyone looses that very useful Brussels scape goat to blame all their sorrows on...

Pity the poor Brexiters – they could win yet still lose
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/24/outers-win-lose-eu-referendum
Still my favorite opinion piece on the matter.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
tomtom94 said:
I disagree with you on the grounds that Osborne and Cameron are literally doing things (privatising Royal Mail etc) that Thatcher would never have done.

Buuuuut we're getting very off topic.
Click to expand...

I feel like Royal Mail, more than any other industry, is a victim of the times. In the 80's people sent significantly more letters. Note: I don't mean more letters were sent. I mean people sent more letters. So much more communication is digital now that the public opinion on the importance of Royal Mail is just totally different compared to the 80's (even Labour wanted to privatise it once it became practical to do so).
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
CyclopsRock said:
I feel like Royal Mail, more than any other industry, is a victim of the times. In the 80's people sent significantly more letters. Note: I don't mean more letters were sent. I mean people sent more letters. So much more communication is digital now that the public opinion on the importance of Royal Mail is just totally different compared to the 80's (even Labour wanted to privatise it once it became practical to do so).
Click to expand...

While that might be true for letters, significantly more products are sent.
No doubt Mail services would have gone out of business without Amazon and co.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
FliXFantatier said:
While that might be true for letters, significantly more products are sent.
No doubt Mail services would have gone out of business without Amazon and co.
Click to expand...

Sure, but I don't think it's as easy to make a case that the delivery of Amazon packages needs to be protected from the profit-seeking private sector compared to when letters were the only way you could, say, correspond with your bank or pay your gas bill or contact your MP etc. There's a public interest in ensuring that everyone has access to communication but that's shifted so far from letters that I don't see why RM needed to be kept public.
 
R

RedShift

Member
CyclopsRock said:
Sure, but I don't think it's as easy to make a case that the delivery of Amazon packages needs to be protected from the profit-seeking private sector compared to when letters were the only way you could, say, correspond with your bank or pay your gas bill or contact your MP etc. There's a public interest in ensuring that everyone has access to communication but that's shifted so far from letters that I don't see why RM needed to be kept public.
Click to expand...

Even Amazon don't use RM much any more do they? It's mostly just eBay stuff.

I wouldn't have done it so soon, and the sale was a complete shambles, but I agree it was right to privatise it at some point.
 
Jezbollah

Jezbollah

Member
The funny thing is I remember seeing polls about Brexit from each UK political party.

There was 4% of UKIP who wanted to remain in Europe :D
 
H

Hasney

Member
FliXFantatier said:
That wood looks very wonky to me...
Click to expand...

True, it kind of looks like the sign though so it's either a shitty photoshop, or something was lost in translation while asking people to design the billboard and the made it look like that. Probably the former, hopefully the latter.
 
B

Bananajama

Banned
To be honest the value of the EURO is the biggest concern we have for our Exports at the moment.

Due to the strength of the GBP. We're getting undercut from other EU countries. Primarily German manufacturers.
In fact the confirmation of the referendum and the subsequent drop in value helped us secure a contract with a customer.

Doing wonders for Germany this though. They're sucking any growth out from any other countries and taking it all there way as they have the manufacturing base.

With anticipated further rate drops from the ECB over the next 4-6 months - with a negative position to be held for several years; in addition to banks across the EU anticipated to finally start charging negative interest rates to customers who hold money with them.

The value of the EURO should only be dropping further.
Which will only continue to harm our export industry.

So us leaving the EU might be a good thing...
That sharp drop in currency value should assist in our export market.

We'll still be operating with free trade for a minimum of two years after the vote to leave (if it happens)

It's all guess work though... no-one...not a sausage. Know's whats going to happen. It's all hypothetical.

I'd like us to stay in personally - but I can see some benefits to us leaving. Same way I see some benefits to us staying.

*edit - on the reverse, if we vote to remain. Us opting to join the EURO currency could be huge....take some of that growth which is forever heading to the North of Europe
 
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