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[Jimbob Smalls]

To the "yes" people seeing "no short term damage." Why do you think anyone would even let the UK in the EEA, EFTA or negotiate any other free trade deal. Do you really think things would be amicable enough to negotiate any kind of deal?



Curious, in this case why is it any harder to call your MEP vs MP?

If they didn't it would beg the question of why were we stupid enough to get into cahoots with a bunch of politically illiterate slap heads like that in the first place!

 

[RedShift]

Let's be real here, he'd be a popular candidate for PM any day of the week regardless of the EU question

True, but if we leave he'll be PM within a month of the vote surely?

 

[Hasney]

Let's be real here, he'd be a popular candidate for PM any day of the week regardless of the EU question

Yeah. We do get more similar to America politically by the day.

 

[ClosingADoor]

If a country would leave the Eurozone it'd have serious effects for sure. It'd undermine the Eurozone as a whole. Still I'd be hesitant to say that Eurozone countries are as dominant as single countries as the UK. Outside of that, in policies that do not govern single currency, meaning the regulations, directives and other acts Britain is a top tier player.

I'm talking about a country that has the second biggest economy in the EU, third largest representation in the European Parliament (France has one more seat), by far the largest financial sector in the EU, a huge industrial sector etc. That's far more than most European countries have to offer.

I understand that many in the UK sees that leaving the EU would give Britain more negotiating power. But that's not what I was after, it was how the things are now as is.

Where are you getting that Britain has little negotiating power? You have a whole lot of exceptions compared to other EU countries because the rest wanted you guys in. From getting money back to tighter border control - I can get around the whole of the EU freely, yet taking the train to London requires passport checks.

I don't really blame the people in the EU for not wanting to make constant exceptions in everything for you, since then all countries want that and it stops being an union. But you have just as much power as the other big countries, which is how it should be. But if you want stuff the other 27 - or a majority - don't, of course it's not going to happen. The UK has 60 million out of 500 million in the EU, so that's just how it should work.

 

[Walshicus]

If they didn't it would beg the question of why were we stupid enough to get into cahoots with a bunch of politically illiterate slap heads like that in the first place!

I don't think anyone is questioning whether some form of deal will be made. The concern is that the terms of said deal will be far less favourable and we'll be outside the decision making process for all the new laws or directives from the rest of the EU we'll end up having to implement anyway. Our interests won't be protected and as much as some people still wanking themselves off over memories of Empire might want to think, we just don't have the clout to force that.

Norway is not an enviable model here. There is a reason why the EU developed from a customs union to encompass an element of political union; practical reality demanded it to accommodate what *we* actually wanted it to do. The thing the right-wing seem to agree we want from Europe - free trade and the single market - just can't work without a political element. If Germany requires a certain maximum limit of lead used in some manufacturing process to be legal for sale, but France has a different or no limit then you can't *have* a single market until you harmonise. And harmonisation is a political process.



The only people who'll benefit from secession will be in the Kremlin (or their fifth columnists here) or those who'll make a quick buck by rolling back decades of hard earned worker and consumer protections.



Also, "Politically illiterate slap heads"? Are you even English?

 

[Jasup]

Where are you getting that Britain has little negotiating power? You have a whole lot of exceptions compared to other EU countries because the rest wanted you guys in. From getting money back to tighter border control - I can get around the whole of the EU freely, yet taking the train to London requires passport checks.

I don't really blame the people in the EU for not wanting to make constant exceptions in everything for you, since then all countries want that and it stops being an union. But you have just as much power as the other big countries, which is how it should be. But if you want stuff the other 27 - or a majority - don't, of course it's not going to happen. The UK has 60 million out of 500 million in the EU, so that's just how it should work.

Well first of all, I'm not British. I look at this from a perspective of a smaller country in the EU and view the UK as a major player in the union. I was talking about the perceived notion, or rather the myth that seems to be circulating around, that the UK is somehow powerless.

Even in the discussion here you tend to see two different UK's. One is the minor player that has little sway and is at the mercy of the bureaucrats from Brussels, the other is the European superpower that can broker deals the way it wants to and get its way. The difference between these two seems to be that the other is in and the other is out of the EU, and I understand that people see things that way. I just can't understand why.

 

[Uzzy]

Clearly there will be a negotiation and some kind of deal made, it'd be daft to think otherwise. However the question is what does that deal contain? For example if the UK is to strike a similar deal like Norway, the UK would still be paying almost as much to the EU, be subjected to most of the EU trade regulations and have no say about the regulations in question. Same with the Swiss, EU trade regulations would still apply, Switzerland still contributes to the EU budget and they have no say in the EU policy.

The question I have is why is it that the fifth largest economy is seen to be utterly useless at influencing EU policies to its advance at the moment? The UK is the second most dominant power in the EU after all and has much more leverage than almost any other country.

Paying and having no say is exactly the situation we have now. Leaving would allow for a new settlement to be reached, with more or less everything up for debate. There is a difference. In the EU we're one voice among 28. But if we left, we'd have far more leverage, namely access to the fifth largest economy in the world, to negotiate a better deal.

At least that's what the likes of UKIP would argue.

As to why we have such a weak position in the EU, I'd argue that's due to a number of reasons. We've had a succession of governments who haven't really wanted to negotiate and do the coalition building that is needed to get EU agreements. Only the Lib Dems have shown any real enthusiasm for the diplomatic work needed, while Cameron would rather play up differences and fight the EU to appease the papers over here. Labour aren't much better either. Blair and Brown were rather reluctant Europeans, and Corbyn certainly is. I don't believe we have many Brits working in the EU Bureaucracy either, and our MEPs are mostly UKIP or eurosceptics like Daniel Hannan, so again, there's not a lot of chance of the kind of parliamentary work being undertaken that'd push British interests. There's just not a lot of interest in working constructively within the EU.

 

[Walshicus]

I just can't understand why.

A kind of persecution complex I guess. It's much easier to believe that the 'other' is out to get us and our media is for the most part biased to frame everything as an us-or-them dichotomy. We ignore our gains because they're not discussed and we focus on our losses because they're exaggerated.

We have a strong position in the EU as it stands. That position will not be made stronger for leaving, and it's frankly laughable to entertain the notion.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Paying and having no say is exactly the situation we have now. Leaving would allow for a new settlement to be reached, with more or less everything up for debate. There is a difference. In the EU we're one voice among 28. But if we left, we'd have far more leverage, namely access to the fifth largest economy in the world, to negotiate a better deal.

At least that's what the likes of UKIP would argue.

As to why we have such a weak position in the EU, I'd argue that's due to a number of reasons. We've had a succession of governments who haven't really wanted to negotiate and do the coalition building that is needed to get EU agreements. Only the Lib Dems have shown any real enthusiasm for the diplomatic work needed, while Cameron would rather play up differences and fight the EU to appease the papers over here. Labour aren't much better either. Blair and Brown were rather reluctant Europeans, and Corbyn certainly is. I don't believe we have many Brits working in the EU Bureaucracy either, and our MEPs are mostly UKIP or eurosceptics like Daniel Hannan, so again, there's not a lot of chance of the kind of parliamentary work being undertaken that'd push British interests. There's just not a lot of interest in working constructively within the EU.

Then this perceived bad negotiating position is mostly Britain's own fault and can be improved in the current situation.

Access to the fifth largest economy might be a good position for negotiations if they leave. But access to the worlds biggest economic zone is a good one for the EU also. So I don't see Britain having any real benefits there. If anything, the other EU countries will do anything to make it hard on the UK now, to prevent others from leaving also. If they make it too easy that will only fuel anti-EU parties in other countries which can use the UK leaving as an example.

I just don't get why the UK of all countries is complaining so much. They get a pretty good rebate, so their contribution is lower then other countries of the same size. They don't have to adopt the Euro if they don't want to. They have a special situation with Schengen. They have border controls far stricter then other EU countries.

 

[Phantast2k]

Britain ‘killed’ in trade talks if it left EU, says French minister | The Guardian

Britain would be “completely killed” in global trade negotiations if it voted to leave the EU because it would be reduced to the status of Jersey and Guernsey, the French economy minister, Emmanuel Macron, has said.

Macron, appearing on BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show to highlight the new political grouping he has established in France, raised Tata’s decision to abandon its UK steel operations to illustrate the dangers of a British exit. This includes selling off its Port Talbot steel plant, the UK’s largest, which employs 4,000 workers.

...

Macron said: “Your decision to be taken is much more about your role in globalisation. I think UK is not about becoming Jersey or Guernsey. Today, you are strong because you are part of the EU. When you discuss your steel industry with China you are credible because you are part of the EU, not because you are just UK. You will be completely killed otherwise.

“You will never be in the situation to negotiate face to face with the Chinese because your domestic market is not relevant for the Chinese in comparison with their domestic market. EU is the first global domestic market.”

Macron’s argument highlights a key argument of the remain campaign. This is that Britain is able to secure stronger trading deals as a member of the EU, with a population of 500 million, rather than as a single nation of 63 million. Trade policy is negotiated at an EU level.

...

Common sense.

 

[Jimbob Smalls]

Also, "Politically illiterate slap heads"? Are you even English?

As far as I am aware all four of those words are aptly described in the Oxford English dictionary.

Unless you know otherwise?

I wonder how all these prosperous countries who aren't part of a union manage to survive in the world seeing as apparently it's not possible?

 

[War Peaceman]

As far as I am aware all four of those words are aptly described in the Oxford English dictionary.

Unless you know otherwise?

I wonder how all these prosperous countries who aren't part of a union manage to survive in the world seeing as apparently it's not possible?

Nobody says it is not possible.

 

[Jasup]

As far as I am aware all four of those words are aptly described in the Oxford English dictionary.

Unless you know otherwise?

I wonder how all these prosperous countries who aren't part of a union manage to survive in the world seeing as apparently it's not possible?

That's one question. The other is how much of the UK's current prosperity can be attributed to the UK itself and how much of it is because the UK is in the EU?

For example, would London be the the most influential global city if it wasn't the predominant city in the largest economy in the world?

 

[Jimbob Smalls]

That's one question. The other is how much of the UK's current prosperity can be attributed to the UK itself and how much of it is because the UK is in the EU?

For example, would London be the the most influential global city if it wasn't the predominant city in the largest economy in the world?

It's hard to know what to believe. They used to say that we faced ruin and the loss of the banking sector if we didn't join the euro.

The opposite happened. London became one of the biggest banking hubs in the world.

 

[Jasup]

It's hard to know what to believe. They used to say that we faced ruin and the loss of the banking sector if we didn't join the euro.

The opposite happened. London became one of the biggest banking hubs in the world.

So who are these "they"?
And if you look from the outside perspective, does being in the Eurozone matter that much as long as you're in the single market? I mean if you are in London you are in that market, regardless if you have the Euro or not. Could there be other variables at work?

It really is hard to know what to believe. In fact I'd argue it's impossible to know what would happen in either scenario after the referendum. We're dealing with very complex systems here. But because we are dealing with complex systems it's in my opinion folly to resort to simple answers. I am OK with differing opinions as long as they're well grounded.

 

[Phantast2k]

I don't know where that assumption came from (do you have a link @Jimbob Smalls?), but as for the Brexit:

Study for European banks says Brexit would harm sector | Reuters

Banks in London would be hit hard if Britain left the European Union to trigger a long spell of uncertainty, a study conducted for European banking lobby AFME said on Monday.

The 68-page study commissioned from law firm Clifford Chance looked at the potential impact of "Brexit", or Britain voting to leave the EU in a referendum on June 23.

It is the latest warning that Brexit would be bad news for the financial services industry, Britain's biggest tax-earning sector and which operates across the EU.

"Banks and investment firms are likely to be significantly and adversely affected by new restrictions on cross-border business," the study said.

Many banks, including international ones such as JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, have their European bases in London, the EU's biggest financial centre, and would lose their "passport" under EU law to offer services across the bloc.

"This 'passport' is key to the UK's appeal for many non-EU financial institutions," the study said.

...

The study said the EU can grant passports to non-EU lenders, which "could be an important mitigant allowing wholesale cross-border investment services to be provided in the EU".

But to obtain a passport, a non-EU lender would have to comply with rules the EU deemed to be "equivalent", or as strict as its own.

Like Norway, Britain would need to be a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), which offers some of the benefits of the EU's single market without being an EU member.

Unless Britain was in the EEA, any replacement trade agreement would have the potential to restrict cross-border trading, the study added.

"There is likely to be a long period of uncertainty after a vote to leave as to whether these regimes will be available, which will affect market participants' business planning," said Chris Bates, a partner at Clifford Chance.

Exchanges and clearing and settlement houses for securities could also be hit by new restrictions unless they are recognised as "equivalent", the study said.

It seems like there would be pressure on EU to force UK into EEA and not grant it some special concessions. Otherwise countries like Norway might want some too.
And as I demonstrated in a previous thread, UK is a much smaller fish next to EU so any trade hostilities would obviously hurt UK much more that they would hurt the EU.
The UK banking sector especially seems easy to get by without. I'm sure EU banks will happily fill any void + the interest rates are at an all time low (in EU) and who knows how the Bank of England might react to a falling Pound. If they raise the interest rates, UK banking might also simply be priced out of the market.

 

[Jezbollah]

Looks like Osborne's going to be hitting the headlines hard tomorrow with the treasury's report saying that a Brexit will cost "£4300 per household"....

John Redwood replied with the following:

It's all kicking off...

 

[Lucreto]

Europe's main stock exchange is in London as well. If the UK leaves I expect banks, financial institutions etc will scale back in London and move to whatever country EU decided to relocate it, Belgium or Germany I expect.

London stock exchange will still have a presents on the world stage but will be significantly reduced without Europe.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Paying and having no say is exactly the situation we have now. Leaving would allow for a new settlement to be reached, with more or less everything up for debate. There is a difference. In the EU we're one voice among 28. But if we left, we'd have far more leverage, namely access to the fifth largest economy in the world, to negotiate a better deal.

The UK have no one to blame but themselves.
It doesn't help that the conservatives left the largest group in the EUP to play on the sidelines with other Eurosceptics...

 

[Chinner]

Looks like Osborne's going to be hitting the headlines hard tomorrow with the treasury's report saying that a Brexit will cost "£4300 per household"....

John Redwood replied with the following:

It's all kicking off...

Pr0ject F3ar at it again!!!!!

If we leave the EU then Britain will be a happy place. It will have flowery meadows and rainbow skies, and rivers made of chocolate, where the white children dance and laugh and play with gumdrop smiles.

 

[tomtom94]

So, er... What was the Exchange Rate Mechanism?

 

[anonymous_abc]

So, er... What was the Exchange Rate Mechanism?

ERM

tl;dr: The way non Euro currencies are tied to the Euro prior to being assimilated.

 

[Jezbollah]

Pr0ject F3ar at it again!!!!!

If we leave the EU then Britain will be a happy place. It will have flowery meadows and rainbow skies, and rivers made of chocolate, where the white children dance and laugh and play with gumdrop smiles.

DONT FORGET THE UNICORNS!!

 

[Walshicus]

As far as I am aware all four of those words are aptly described in the Oxford English dictionary.

Unless you know otherwise?

Hah! You're not are you? I mean how could you be English and not know why that phrase made no sense in the context you used it? Something you could say to Al Murray, maybe...

 

[CyclopsRock]

It's also how Joe Lewis made enough money to buy Spurs and, along with Daniel Levy, lead us on our current excellent form. So, silver lining and all that.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Hah! You're not are you? I mean how could you be English and not know why that phrase made no sense in the context you used it? Something you could say to Al Murray, maybe...

I don't know it is about the phrase "politically illiterate slap heads" that makes you think that guy isn't English?

Leiutenant Colonel Kojack Slaphead the Third

 

[travisbickle]

I heard the EU will definitely enforce the straight banana rule and increase fines for illegal teabag recycling if we vote to stay in.

 

[8bit]

BIG SUMS.

(via https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/721995149719547904)

 

[Hasney]

BIG SUMS.

(via https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/721995149719547904)

Osbournes a cunt, but fair play on actually laying it out there. Will look like an idiot if Rachel Riley comes out and says it doesn't add up though.

Better than the idiots replying to that Tweet, not understanding how you actually estimate unknowns.

 

[KingSnake]

The Brexit will cost a lot of money, no matter what your opinion on the matter is. Plus the unemployment rate will go up with all those British MPs in the European Parliament and all their staff.

 

[MarkMclovin]

Whenever this comes up in conversation, nobody really seems to know why they are voting to either leave or stay, they just go by facebook posts thinking they are informative.

So I'll ask here. As someone that is neither for or against at the moment, do we have any definitive info on what will happen if it goes either way? Unbiased points is what I'm after.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Whenever this comes up in conversation, nobody really seems to know why they are voting to either leave or stay, they just go by facebook posts thinking they are informative.

So I'll ask here. As someone that is neither for or against at the moment, do we have any definitive info on what will happen if it goes either way? Unbiased points is what I'm after.

There is a first time for everything a Brexit would be a first time for such a scenario. There are many unknowns. Be it pros or cons no one can possibly know for sure.

If the UK stays, well what would you expect? Nothing much will change.
UKIP will still want out, the tabloids will still blame Brussels for all of Britain's ills, etc...

 

[danowat]

Whenever this comes up in conversation, nobody really seems to know why they are voting to either leave or stay, they just go by facebook posts thinking they are informative.

So I'll ask here. As someone that is neither for or against at the moment, do we have any definitive info on what will happen if it goes either way? Unbiased points is what I'm after.

If we stay, things stay (pretty much) as is, if we leave?, who the f**k knows.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

I haven't been watching polls on this, so how likely will this happen?

 

[Volotaire]

BIG SUMS.

(via https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/721995149719547904)

Lovely regressions! Seems like international econ. Wish I took it this year.

EDIT: I love this following comment. It disregards the 'art' aspect of econometrics relative to regression analysis in other social sciences. Just completely ignorant.

Michael Merrifield ‏@ProfMike_M 34m34 minutes ago
@BBCNormanS shouldn't this fairly basic level of maths literacy be a prerequisite for your job?
0 retweets 2 likes

 

[Hasney]

I haven't been watching polls on this, so how likely will this happen?

So far, it's not going to happen, but only just if you go by the polls.

The polls were so wrong at the general election that it's worth remembering that they may not be a good indication. Also sounds like a lot of people are still undecided.

I wish they put a turnout threshold on this thing. Feels too big of a consequence if only 30% of the population bother to show up.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I'm almost certainly voting to stay but I'm worried that it'll be declared a vote of confidence in the current running of things, including all the shit I hate, and we will have lost our ability to negotiate any improvements on the grounds that the ultimate threat - of withdrawing from the EU - is no longer on the table.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

ERM

tl;dr: The way non Euro currencies are tied to the Euro prior to being assimilated.

Used to be tied to the Euro. It was replaced by ERM II in 1998 I think.

I'm almost certainly voting to stay but I'm worried that it'll be declared a vote of confidence in the current running of things, including all the shit I hate, and we will have lost our ability to negotiate any improvements on the grounds that the ultimate threat - of withdrawing from the EU - is no longer on the table.

I don't think anyone sees this as a vote of confidence. Anyone looking at the campaigns can see that - both almost wholly negative. Each side is trying to show themselves as being the least worst.

 

[danowat]

I'm almost certainly voting to stay but I'm worried that it'll be declared a vote of confidence in the current running of things, including all the shit I hate, and we will have lost our ability to negotiate any improvements on the grounds that the ultimate threat - of withdrawing from the EU - is no longer on the table.

Voting in is the lesser of two evils (IMO)

 

[nature boy]

Ok a couple of questions from a non-Birt:

- Does the leave campaign really want to leave or is it just a negotiation tactic (win the referendum and have more leverage to get more concessions from the EU)?

- If leave wins, is there any credibility to the idea that Scotland might leave the United Kingdom?

 

[MarkMclovin]

There is a first time for everything a Brexit would be a first time for such a scenario. There are many unknowns. Be it pros or cons no one can possibly know for sure.

If the UK stays, well what would you expect? Nothing much will change.
UKIP will still want out, the tabloids will still blame Brussels for all of Britain's ills, etc...

If we stay, things stay (pretty much) as is, if we leave?, who the f**k knows.

Then how can we vote on such a big, presumably huge change, if we don't even know where it would lead us?

OK, so why is Brexit a thing? What has happened in the past to make us consider leaving?

 

[Hasney]

Ok a couple of questions from a non-Birt:

- Does the leave campaign really want to leave or is it just a negotiation tactic (win the referendum and have more leverage to get more concessions from the EU)?

- If leave wins, is there any credibility to the idea that Scotland might leave the United Kingdom?

1. Yeah, they really, really want to leave. Then close up the borders and have "more control"

2. It's a tough one. If Scotland vote to stay in, they will probably push even harder for a second independence vote and it was so close last time that it might go through this time. It would just be up to the government to allow it.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Ok a couple of questions from a non-Birt:

- Does the leave campaign really want to leave or is it just a negotiation tactic (win the referendum and have more leverage to get more concessions from the EU)?

They really want to leave.

- If leave wins, is there any credibility to the idea that Scotland might leave the United Kingdom?

Certainly a lot more than there is now, providing a reason for there to be another referendum to be held (and a catalyst for a leave vote).

 

[cabot]

Ok a couple of questions from a non-Birt:

- Does the leave campaign really want to leave or is it just a negotiation tactic (win the referendum and have more leverage to get more concessions from the EU)?

- If leave wins, is there any credibility to the idea that Scotland might leave the United Kingdom?

- Nah they really want to separate

- Could see the SNP seriously pushing a second referendum if the results show that Scotland voted to stay in with a decent majority. I'm not quite sure if they'd win one so soon yet.

I refreshed myself on population numbers, and England holds 83.9% of the population of the entire UK, so it really is all on them.

Kind of sucks, but one vote one count dems da breaks.

 

[danowat]

Then how can we vote on such a big, presumably huge change, if we don't even know where it would lead us?

I don't think "we" should be.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Scotland is kinda in a funny situation, though. Like, Ireland has not been a part of the UK for almost 100 years and yet the UK is still is largest trading partner by a long, long way (geographical proximity, shared language, shared culture, historic tires, Northern Ireland etc all play a role in that), to the extent that if Brexit were to happen Ireland would have to seriously think about what to do, lest they find themselves in a trade union that doesn't include their largest trade partner.

And if that's the case for the Republic, just imagine what it would be for Scotland. They're even more significantly entrenched, and also share a language, land border, currency, all the same ties as Ireland, only the split would be now rather than 93 years ago. I mean, they'd have each other but if we didn't end up in the EEC somehow, would Scotland actually want to be a member of the EU?

 

[Nicktendo86]

Does anyone remember that re-negotiation back in Feb? What a fucking waste of time that was, an absolute sham.

Going by Osbourne's OBR reports, we can expect to find his EU treasury report will need a multi billion £ adjustment in a few weeks.

 

[Uzzy]

Does anyone remember that re-negotiation back in Feb? What a fucking waste of time that was, an absolute sham.

Going by Osbourne's OBR reports, we can expect to find his EU treasury report will need a multi billion £ adjustment in a few weeks.

Pretty much. I wouldn't trust Osborne on basic maths, let alone predictions for 14 years in the future.

 

[Walshicus]

I think it's basically inevitable that they will hold a second referendum if Scotland votes Remain but England votes Leave. It also removes any requirement the rest of the EU would have felt obliged to follow to downplay membership options.

Things are going to be very "fluid" following a possible Leave vote in England, and I doubt that Westminster could do much to prevent Holyrood holding a second referendum even if it wanted to in the aftermath.



It *is* slightly amusing that the only good thing a Leave vote could bring is the break-up of the "UK".

 

[Uzzy]

I think it's basically inevitable that they will hold a second referendum if Scotland votes Remain but England votes Leave. It also removes any requirement the rest of the EU would have felt obliged to follow to downplay membership options.

Things are going to be very "fluid" following a possible Leave vote in England, and I doubt that Westminster could do much to prevent Holyrood holding a second referendum even if it wanted to in the aftermath.

Well, Westminster just has to say 'no'. Ending the Union isn't a devolved power, which is why the Edinburgh Agreement was signed back in 2012 to allow for the referendum. They could go for a unilateral declaration of independence, but that'd be a horrific mess.

Politically it might be a different matter.