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[Milton]

Strange that if you reverse those statements reminds me of Boris and Co, during our referendum in 2014.

Yep, just highlighting the fact that individuals on both sides of the campaign are really no better or different than each other.

Just last year Cameron reaffirmed the government's support for Turkey's EU membership. Funny what a referendum can do to focus the mind.

 

[PJV3]

Started compiling.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Atr8Mb1up4xLLJXJT1OqPgnqBEF_4iBz0Dbvy9mDWr0/edit#gid=0

Actually what are the rules of the election? If exit wins by a few thousand votes is that it and off we go?

 

[Carl2291]

but what bout the spooky t-t-t-turks

Obviously it's not all either positive or negative for both sides, I'm just talking about the majority of arguments I hear.

Leave have some idiotic fear based stuff like Turkey's EU membership and say, the EU army, but the main highlights of the campaign tend to be how we can improve as a nation outside of Brussels control.

 

[JonathanEx]

Actually what are the rules of the election? If exit wins by a few thousand votes is that it and off we go?

Technically, it's not legally binding.

Practically, the will of the people, no matter how small, will be respected. Probably.

 

[Chinner]

Turnout 70%

Remain 40%
Leave 60%

The following year brown people and immigrants are declared illegal and are sent to turkey.

3 years after Scotland becomes independent.
2 years after Scotland becomes part of the EU.

Tensions become high while White English people fear that brown immigrants will come to Scotland and sneak into England; a giant wall is erected to keep them out.

5 years after Wales and Ireland leave the UK and become part of the EU. The White English fear immigrants will come to Ireland and Wales to sneak into England; England is airlifted into the middle of the Pacific Ocean to stop non-Christians from entering.

10 years after, England declares the entire planet racist to the English.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Actually what are the rules of the election? If exit wins by a few thousand votes is that it and off we go?

No it's much more complicated than this, it's likely that another referendum will be needed to confirm agreement over final exit since the repercussions must be given to the population after negotiation, only then I'd imagine it would be final.

 

[PJV3]

Technically, it's not legally binding.

Practically, the will of the people, no matter how small, will be respected. Probably.

Oh dear, I'm gonna start storing tinned goods.

 

[JonathanEx]

I've added it Chinner but as long as you're fine waiting 10 years to know if you win the prize for best prediction



(no prize available)

 

[Audioboxer]

Turnout 70%

Remain 40%
Leave 60%

The following year brown people and immigrants are declared illegal and are sent to turkey.

3 years after Scotland becomes independent.
2 years after Scotland becomes part of the EU.

Tensions become high while White English people fear that brown immigrants will come to Scotland and sneak into England; a giant wall is erected to keep them out.

5 years after Wales and Ireland leave the UK and become part of the EU. The White English fear immigrants will come to Ireland and Wales to sneak into England; England is airlifted into the middle of the Pacific Ocean to stop non-Christians from entering.

10 years after, England declares the entire planet racist to the English.

Bro, do you even British Values?

 

[Carl2291]

10 years after, England declares the entire planet racist to the English.

Nothing new there then.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Oh dear, I'm gonna start storing tinned goods.

I'm already stocking up the popcorn to sit and watch the mess this will create, alongside the possibility of Trump being elected as USA president it's going to be one hell of a journey.

 

[Audioboxer]

I'm already stocking up the popcorn to sit and watch the mess this will create, alongside the possibility of Trump being elected as USA president it's going to be one hell of a journey.

Time to create a GAF space rocket and fuck off to another planet.

Out of interest any immigrants on GAF in the UK want to share their views? Personal feelings?

 

[ferrasvansen]

Time to create a GAF space rocket and fuck off to another planet.

Out of interest any immigrants on GAF in the UK want to share their views? Personal feelings?

Sadly a rocket is outwith my budget, but my referendum and election preparedness bunker is coming along nicely.

 

[Audioboxer]

Sadly a rocket is outwith my budget, but my referendum and election preparedness bunker is coming along nicely.

We can all chip in. I'll sell off all my amiibos to help the fund as well.

The ones I imported from the states will probably need to be deported anyway.

 

[PJV3]

No it's much more complicated than this, it's likely that another referendum will be needed to confirm agreement over final exit since the repercussions must be given to the population after negotiation, only then I'd imagine it would be final.

Oh I forgot about the two year period, it took longer for Greenland to negotiate their exit and they have fuck all but cod. That is going to be a sobering vote if it happens.

I'm already stocking up the popcorn to sit and watch the mess this will create, alongside the possibility of Trump being elected as USA president it's going to be one hell of a journey.

A really close call either way is going to be terrible.

 

[Audioboxer]

Oh I forgot about the two year period, it took longer for Greenland to negotiate their exit and they have fuck all but cod. That is going to be a sobering vote if it happens.



A really close call either way is going to be terrible.

If you're English welcome to Scotland post ref. Although 55/45 isn't too close. As someone who was pro-independence some of the butt-hurt was amusing, although at a stretch understandable given how important the decision was (although I'll never condone personal attacks, some of which I seen often).

I had a couple of my own personal grumbles at certain demographics behind closed doors, but never openly at people who simply exercised their demographic vote.

 

[Rourkey]

Not really.

Leave are focusing on potential positives of being out more than anything, while Remain aren't really highlighting any positives of the EU.

Everything coming out of Remain is doom and gloom, we can't survive on our own. We aren't good enough. Even if Leave are lying about a lot, it's positive stuff. It's a really clever campaign. Even Farage is hitting the right notes.

Pointing out that leaving will cause economic problems is not scaremongering its simple fact just as it was in the Scottish referendum.

The problem is people are willing to take that hit, for a lot of people this is simply a vote on immigration Yes or No. They know their are benefits of immigration but don't like the pressure it causes on housing and wages

 

[hodgy100]

Pointing out that leaving will cause economic problems is not scaremongering its simple fact just as it was in the Scottish referendum.

The problem is people are willing to take that hit, for a lot of people this is simply a vote on immigration Yes or No. They know their are benefits of immigration but don't like the pressure it causes on housing and wages

I agree immigration can cause issues. But I don't agree that the solution is to try to stop immigration as there are also a bunch of positives to it.

Why not tackle said issues. Wages have stagnated in semi skilled jobs because immigration has allowed employers to undercut wages and pay less for someone who is just as good. So why not prevent that behavior by having the minimum wage be an actual liveable amount.

Also I feel the complaint that our public services are under stress due to be misdirected blame. Our services are under stress due to budget cuts and the tighterning of targets making these services cut corners. I feel like immigration is being used as a scapegoat.

Also the housing market issue is due to a lack of house building. This has been an issue for the last decade and it likely exists so the bubble that is the housing market can be kept afloat. People don't want to loose value off their homes even in the end it's all relative:/ more houses need to be built regardless of whether we have more or less immigration.

Edit: this obviously isn't aimed at you. I'm just trying to fathom why immigration is such the massive issue it is. Because from my pov it's misplaced frustration.

 

[danowat]

Dyson will cause a big swing, I've heard it a lot today, 'someone who's opinion I can finally trust'.

Seems like leave is going to have a stronger run up to the vote.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Obviously it's not all either positive or negative for both sides, I'm just talking about the majority of arguments I hear.

Leave have some idiotic fear based stuff like Turkey's EU membership and say, the EU army, but the main highlights of the campaign tend to be how we can improve as a nation outside of Brussels control.

Of the Leave side is focusing on how the UK can be better outside the EU, then the Remain side pointing out how that isn't true is not fear mongering or being negative. That is just fighting an argument from the other side by saying how they think it will go.

And from what I've read online the Leave side is far from a positive message with a lot of bullshit being shouted around it.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Dyson will cause a big swing, I've heard it a lot today, 'someone who's opinion I can finally trust'.

Seems like leave is going to have a stronger run up to the vote.

Funny thing about Dyson, he shut the factories here and moved to Malaysia, now if he actually had factories here I would understand but he doesn't. Yet another money grabber who deserted the UK. Now all of a sudden he is spouting leaving EU because his hoovers have issues with EU regulations. Will he move his factories back here, will he hell, pathetic.

 

[Carl2291]

There's refuting claims and there's providing actual positives of the EU.

They are providing very few positives to sway Leave voters. When they also resort to insulting and poking fun at the Leave campaigners, you know they are running out of counter points.

In defence of sturgeon, while she was made to look silly in the debate at least she was arguing some positive points of the EU itself. That's what Remain needs more of IMO.

 

[Hasney]

Dyson will cause a big swing, I've heard it a lot today, 'someone who's opinion I can finally trust'.

Seems like leave is going to have a stronger run up to the vote.

Obviously just depends where you live then. All I've heard is jokes about how he's just upset that the EU stopped his vaccums from sucking him off properly.

 

[PJV3]

Why the fuck would trust be something you'd link to Dyson?

 

[milanbaros]

Dyson will cause a big swing, I've heard it a lot today, 'someone who's opinion I can finally trust'.

Seems like leave is going to have a stronger run up to the vote.

People who choose to listen to Dyson over the countless other business leaders were likely leave voters to start with.

 

[hodgy100]

People who choose to listen to Dyson over the countless other business leaders were likely leave voters to start with.

Yeah it's just another person they can use to support their argument.

 

[Empty]

Leave positive, did you even read the stuff they write. Euro criminals, immigration, nhs being destroyed by foreigners need I go on, they are playing clever words games to fool the people into believing they are being positive when they are just the opposite.

those are positive arguments for a lot of the electorate

i.e if we brexit

we can invest more in healthcare
we can make our country more safe from terrorists

remain campaign is basically elite politicians and organizations telling u to eat ur fruit and vegetables otherwise you will suffer health problems.

that said difficult to make a positive argument for the status quo and the things the eu is very good at are either taken for granted, hard to understand, invisible or irrelevant to most voters.

 

[PJV3]

Yeah it's just another person they can use to support their argument.

Nah, he makes pricey hoovers. He's obviously a good bloke you can count on.

 

[Audioboxer]

those are positive arguments for a lot of the electorate

i.e if we brexit

we can invest more in healthcare
we can make our country more safe from terrorists

remain campaign is basically elite politicians and organizations telling u to eat ur fruit and vegetables otherwise you will suffer health problems.

that said difficult to make a positive argument for the status quo and the things the eu is very good at are either taken for granted, hard to understand, invisible or irrelevant to most voters.

Why haven't been able to do that now because of the EU? lol.

 

[Milton]

I agree immigration can cause issues. But I don't agree that the solution is to try to stop immigration as there are also a bunch of positives to it.

Nobody in the Leave campaign is saying immigration should be stopped.

 

[Carl2291]

Nah, he makes pricey hoovers. He's obviously a good bloke you can count on.

Or you could say that he's a household, popular name that has the trust of millions of consumers.

 

[danowat]

I don't get it either, it's just justification for those who were erring to out.

 

[ferrasvansen]

those are positive arguments for a lot of the electorate

i.e if we brexit

we can invest more in healthcare
we can make our country more safe from terrorists

remain campaign is basically elite politicians and organizations telling u to eat ur fruit and vegetables otherwise you will suffer health problems.

that said difficult to make a positive argument for the status quo and the things the eu is very good at are either taken for granted, hard to understand, invisible or irrelevant to most voters.

So how can we invest more given 80% of all leave supporters in last poll admit economy will suffer, the NHS will be squeezed further due to austerity. As for safety so let's take the out the Eastern Europeans and bring in more from Middle East and Asia as per vote leaves planned points system, how on earth would that make us safer. That's a massive jump in logic allowing a greater influx of people from troubled areas to say we would be safer.

 

[Empty]

Why haven't been able to do that now because of the EU? lol.

well the uk electorate largely believes that the last time we spent a proper amount on healthcare gordon brown ruined the uk economy (see every bit of polling about how ppl want to cut deficit, treat budget like a household budget)

whereas the leave campaign makes as common sense household budget sounding proposal of why don't we spend money we do have available to us on the nhs instead of a parliament and bureaucracy that's unpopular. then repeats it again and again and again.

i'm not saying these are right, i believe the exact opposite, but it's the situation that this referendum is being fought in.

 

[King Gilga]

I'm not trying to say anything because some of them are great people and some of best friends and in not fussed about this eu thing much but every pro brexit person I know personally is white.

 

[milanbaros]

So how can we invest more given 80% of all leave supporters in last poll admit economy will suffer, the NHS will be squeezed further due to austerity. As for safety so let's take the out the Eastern Europeans and bring in more from Middle East and Asia as per vote leaves planned points system, how on earth would that make us safer. That's a massive jump in logic allowing a greater influx of people from troubled areas to say we would be safer.

I genuinely don't think the average person thinks beyond, 'less cash goes to EU, more can go to NHS'. Asking them to account for the effect of the wider economic ramifications is just too much.

Hell, there are people still out there who think government borrowing is like taking on a personal loan.

The politicians fight in this level of understanding because they have learnt that it is useless trying to argue on a more complex level.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

OK, I'm calling it:

52% Remain - 48% BREXIT, on a 75% turnout.

When the tailgate drops the bullshit stops.

All those Millenials who have registered to vote will save us from Farage.

I'll start putting these predictions in the OP. Probably only going to get around to it tomorrow evening, but I'll try to include every prediction from this post on.

Place your bets!

 

[Empty]

So how can we invest more given 80% of all leave supporters in last poll admit economy will suffer, the NHS will be squeezed further due to austerity. As for safety so let's take the out the Eastern Europeans and bring in more from Middle East and Asia as per vote leaves planned points system, how on earth would that make us safer. That's a massive jump in logic allowing a greater influx of people from troubled areas to say we would be safer.

yeah i mean it doesn't make much sense if you really dig into the detail

it does make sense if you just read a little bit of tabloids, listen to news bulletins on radio etc. in that case it's oh yeah paris bombers travelled around europe freely why don't we limit that instead of letting anyone in & yeah that sounds good helping my sick gran instead of paying some random eu parliament to making decisions for us.

nhs one is interesting because while people think the economy will suffer there's this pervasive belief that instead of providing vast numbers of vital staff and financing through taxes, immigrants are crowding away services from regular british people, so ppl think it will ultimately help public services. i don't think a lot of brexiteers really care if the economy suffers (a little, not full blown recession) if they think the people suffering will just be rich bankers and london professional types.

 

[Milton]

I would be surprised if turnout is over 70%. The last time we had that kind of turnout for a major vote was 1997.

 

[Hasney]

100% Leave with 100% turnout.

We actually end up leaving so hard that the land actually gets pulled away from Europe and closer to our American friends, how aloow us to become a state.

 

[ferrasvansen]

yeah i mean it doesn't make much sense if you really dig into the detail

it does make sense if you just read a little bit of tabloids, listen to news bulletins on radio etc. in that case it's oh yeah paris bombers travelled around europe freely why don't we limit that instead of letting anyone in & yeah that sounds good helping my sick gran instead of paying some random eu parliament to making decisions for us.

nhs one is interesting because while people think the economy will suffer there's this pervasive belief that instead of providing vast numbers of vital staff and financing through taxes, immigrants are crowding away services from regular british people, so ppl think it will ultimately help public services. i don't think a lot of brexiteers really care if the economy suffers (a little, not full blown recession) if they think the people suffering will just be rich bankers and london professional types.

In the last recession it was the poor that suffered, especially the sick and disabled. It was made clear last budget this was the case and further cuts were stopped. I think the electorate just don't seem to be able to separate reality and the daily mail lies to be honest, it's a pretty sad indictment on the UK population.

 

[danowat]

I'm going with.

54% out, 46% in

65% turnout.

Either way, I reckon it's going to be fairly tight.

 

[hodgy100]

Nobody in the Leave campaign is saying immigration should be stopped.

That's the main reason average Joe is voting leave though.

 

[phisheep]

I'll start putting these predictions in the OP. Probably only going to get around to it tomorrow evening, but I'll try to include every prediction from this post on.

Place your bets!

Just link to Jonathan's spreadsheet?

Started compiling.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Atr8Mb1up4xLLJXJT1OqPgnqBEF_4iBz0Dbvy9mDWr0/edit#gid=0

 

[Chinner]

nhs one is interesting because while people think the economy will suffer there's this pervasive belief that instead of providing vast numbers of vital staff and financing through taxes, immigrants are crowding away services from regular british people, so ppl think it will ultimately help public services. i don't think a lot of brexiteers really care if the economy suffers (a little, not full blown recession) if they think the people suffering will just be rich bankers and london professional types.

Most people won't care if unemployment goes up as long as it isn't them.

Fuck you got mine + these sacrifices are worth the sovereignty etc

 

[Phantast2k]

100% Remain with 100% turnout.

You will remain so hard that the British Isles will merge with the mainland. You'll introduce the Euro, drive on the right side of the road, drink wine instead of tea and eat proper food.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Just link to Jonathan's spreadsheet?

I hadn't caught up with the thread. I'm at the cricket!

I'll probably still put them in the OP though.

 

[phisheep]

I hadn't caught up with the thread. I'm at the cricket!

Jealous. I'm in the shop listening to Test Match Special and hoping we get no customers ...

 

[Milton]

That's the main reason average Joe is voting leave though.

Hmm, I don't think that's true. I think most people accept that immigration in itself isn't a bad thing, but what they object to is the sheer numbers we are currently seeing and have been seeing for a while now.

As recently as 1997 net migration to the UK was in five figures. Hell, in 1992 we had negative net migration. Now it's over 300,000.

 

[PJV3]

100% Remain with 100% turnout.

You will remain so hard that the British Isles will merge with the mainland. You'll introduce the Euro, drive on the right side of the road, drink wine instead of tea and eat proper food.

And never mention the war again.