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[CyclopsRock]

re: gambling, most sportsbooks work as has been discussed, where the bookies hedge their bets (literally) by altering the odds such that they make money either way on the arbitrage. HOWEVER with the Betfair Exchange markets, this doesn't happen - betfair don't set the odds, the market movements do in the same way the markets set share prices. There can be some manipulating done here by Betfair, but typically it's just using their sportsbook bets to liquidate the exchange market. The beauty of the exchange market is that Betfair makes money off the winning bets, but it's just punters (or other bookies or whatever) actually providing the funds, so they don't care who wins, they make the same amount either way - approx 2% of the total staked. As such, the exchange is more of a "widsom of the crowds" style measure, where as the sportsbook odds are, as pointed out, manipulated somewhat (though that can be illuminating in its own way, since they are manipulated in response to the market movements anyway).

 

[KingSnake]

As I understand it this, or something like EFTA, was proposed early on but the countries pushed for full membership as a sort of protection from Russian influence. I don't blame them at all for that, following all the cold war and iron curtain stuff - and neither do I blame the EU for acceding, though it was rather a lot to swallow all at once.

There was no real incentive or use for the Eastern European countries to form a separate union. Not to mention that it would have brought back some ugly memories of the former communist alliance between them.

 

[RedShift]

Is it time for the crazy panic moves yet? It took a lot less than this to get them to happen in the Indy Ref.

It feels terrifyingly close.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

As I understand it this, or something like EFTA, was proposed early on but the countries pushed for full membership as a sort of protection from Russian influence. I don't blame them at all for that, following all the cold war and iron curtain stuff - and neither do I blame the EU for acceding, though it was rather a lot to swallow all at once.

I can't point to a singular decisive thing that is pushing me towards Leave, but the 2004-13 expansion is definitely one of them. In a few short years, more than 100 million people were added to the EU, another 13 countries, all poorer than the poorest member state, our voice diluted from 1/15 to 1/28 and however many MEPs added to the Parliament. And we were never consulted about it. Hmph!

re: gambling, most sportsbooks work as has been discussed, where the bookies hedge their bets (literally) by altering the odds such that they make money either way on the arbitrage. HOWEVER with the Betfair Exchange markets, this doesn't happen - betfair don't set the odds, the market movements do in the same way the markets set share prices. There can be some manipulating done here by Betfair, but typically it's just using their sportsbook bets to liquidate the exchange market. The beauty of the exchange market is that Betfair makes money off the winning bets, but it's just punters (or other bookies or whatever) actually providing the funds, so they don't care who wins, they make the same amount either way - approx 2% of the total staked. As such, the exchange is more of a "widsom of the crowds" style measure, where as the sportsbook odds are, as pointed out, manipulated somewhat (though that can be illuminating in its own way, since they are manipulated in response to the market movements anyway).

Ah, I never knew that, even though I have used Betfair in the past!

Spoiler

I take it you have already placed a bet on this?

Is it time for the crazy panic moves yet? It took a lot less than this to get them to happen in the Indy Ref.

It feels terrifyingly close.

I'm seriously expecting a 'Vow' from Juncker, Tusk and Schultz on the front cover of Der Spiegel any day now. Or maybe something like this:

Yeah, that'd do it.

 

[phisheep]

I can't point to a singular decisive thing that is pushing me towards Leave, but the 2004-13 expansion is definitely one of them. In a few short years, more than 100 million people were added to the EU, another 13 countries, all poorer than the poorest member state, our voice diluted from 1/15 to 1/28 and however many MEPs added to the Parliament. And we were never consulted about it. Hmph!

Though I say now that it was a lot to take in one go, I suspect that had I been consulted about it I would have said overwhelmingly yes. We're talking countries here that emerged from the aftermath of WWII only 14 years before, that are poor largely because of years of soviet domination as a result of a war that they and we fought for the freedom of Europe. Yes, I'd have said, with open arms, welcome.

Germany took a similar risk with reunification and the consequences are still being worked out. But was it the right thing to do? Yes it was.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Though I say now that it was a lot to take in one go, I suspect that had I been consulted about it I would have said overwhelmingly yes. We're talking countries here that emerged from the aftermath of WWII only 14 years before, that are poor largely because of years of soviet domination as a result of a war that they and we fought for the freedom of Europe. Yes, I'd have said, with open arms, welcome.

Germany took a similar risk with reunification and the consequences are still being worked out. But was it the right thing to do? Yes it was.

Oh Phi, please don't use this formulation. I can only read it in David Cameron's voice :-(

I agree that German reunification was the right thing to do. It was a country divided. I don't really see how that is at all similar to EU expansionism.

 

[phisheep]

Oh Phi, please don't use this formulation. I can only read it in David Cameron's voice :-(

You watch way too much TV. Read it in a mild Welsh accent if that helps!

I agree that German reunification was the right thing to do. It was a country divided. I don't really see how that is at all similar to EU expansionism.

Continent divided?

 

[CyclopsRock]

Ah, I never knew that, even though I have used Betfair in the past!

Spoiler

I take it you have already placed a bet on this?

I actually haven't! But I do absolutely love gambling on stuff. But I like the quick return stuff. Even a 90 minute game of football is too long sometimes...

 

[QuicheFontaine]

You watch way too much TV. Read it in a mild Welsh accent if that helps!

I know, it's my problem. I'll work on it (the Welsh thing does help).

Continent divided?

Ah, but continents are not countries. Europe's never been a country. If you want to make Europe into one big country, via the EU, well I'm afraid that's not a goal I share.

Edit:

I actually haven't! But I do absolutely love gambling on stuff. But I like the quick return stuff. Even a 90 minute game of football is too long sometimes...

Christ, you're one of those degenerates betting on "next throw in" and "next corner" aren't you? Smh...

 

[Goodlife]

Yes, the PLP is in a sticky situation because of Corbyn's mandate. Potential successors are biding their time until after the referendum. If we leave the EU they'll be in a better position to claim ineptitude on Corbyn's part and take advantage of the ill feeling growing amongst Labour figures towards his weak leadership during this referendum.

They need to take a leaf out of the Tories' book and be ruthless.Who better to let down: 120,000 full party members (the rest who voted for him are just registered supporters and affiliates) or millions of the public who are looking to Labour for a credible alternative to the Tories and are left wanting?

So, they kick him out, then what?
Labour rules say he's automatically on the ballet for the next leadership election.
Even with a falling number of supporters, he'll walk it and become leader again.
Nothing changes until Labour find anyone half decent to replace him (I.e. A younger version of him)

 

[Tak3n]

So, they kick him out, then what?
Labour rules say he's automatically on the ballet for the next leadership election.
Even with a falling number of supporters, he'll walk it and become leader again.
Nothing changes until Labour find anyone half decent to replace him (I.e. A younger version of him)

Dan Jarvis is the one they all want I reckon

 

[gerg]

Another poll has been released, this time with a 7% lead for Leave, but with a positive addendum for the Remain campaign: http://www.tnsglobal.co.uk/press-release/leave-campaign-ahead-latest-tns-poll

 

[Tak3n]

Oh it's happening, the Vows have begun

Labour have announced if we vote to remain free movement will have to change.... of course we all now this is bollocks as it underpins the EU philosophy, and Labour will have no more luck than what the Tories did

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36523759

Deputy Labour leader Tom Watson has said EU immigration rules may have to be revisited, saying "woe betide" the party if it ignores public concerns.
A future government, he said, would have to make the case to revise EU-wide freedom of movement rules for workers.
Labour MP John Mann, a Leave supporter, said the party was finally "admitting defeat" over backing for open borders.

 

[gerg]

Oh it's happening, the Vows have begun

Labour have announced if we vote to remain free movement will have to change.... of course we all now this is bollocks as it underpins the EU philosophy, and Labour will have no more luck than what the Tories did

I can't see how promises like that aid either Labour or Leftist politics. In the instance that these vows help Labour convince its voters to vote Remain, but Labour is unable to follow up on its pledge, they will damage their credibility; alternatively, if Labour is successful in curbing freedom-of-movement policy then that is yet another sign of its shift towards conservative policy.

 

[Meadows]

We're going to leave aren't we

 

[Mr Cola]

My mums going on about if we leave applying for her dual Irish passport, apparently I can too, I know nothing about this but she says it is a good idea.

 

[phisheep]

I can't see how promises like that aid either Labour or Leftist politics. In the instance that these vows help Labour convince its voters to vote Remain, but Labour is unable to follow up on its pledge, they will damage their credibility; alternatively, if Labour is successful in curbing freedom-of-movement policy then that is yet another sign of its shift towards conservative policy.

Doesn't matter right now, Labour won't be in power to renege on their pledges anyhow. They'll have the Tories to blame for that.

Far more important to get out the Remain vote.

 

[Chinner]

We're going to leave aren't we

Take control and regain sovereignty. This is about democracy. Any pain will be worth it to allow Britain to be great again.

 

[Walshicus]

Oh Phi, please don't use this formulation. I can only read it in David Cameron's voice :-(

I agree that German reunification was the right thing to do. It was a country divided. I don't really see how that is at all similar to EU expansionism.

Well now we have an eastern block that is growing and in short time will be on par with the west. It's in our interest to have rich neighbours.

 

[Maledict]

We're going to leave aren't we

It makes me feel sick in my stomach just thinking about it. Will almost certainly mean my job goes, and as an added bonus we then end up with Boris as PM.

I'm still hoping that undecideds break in our way, plus the Northern Ireland / ex-pats vote swings things. Remember two weeks ago everyone was saying that leave had failed and Remain was looking much stronger. Until they decided to go full on racism regarding immigration they were losing this, and a similar turn around may still happen.

 

[DrFurbs]

Make Britain great again! (TM) #Brexit

 

[ksan]

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/742622522131222528

Bond markets looking good. Lot of international investors happy to buy UK gilts ahead of Brexit

keep telling urself that

 

[jufonuk]

bunch of fuckwits... yeah let's listen to the Sun/Murdoch

we where great once. now we'll be Meh Britain.

 

[dapperbandit]

Didn't see this posted yet.

I suspect their readership was already on board the Brexpress but the visibility of this could make a big difference

 

[WinterX]

Please vote 'leave'. It's not only about UK but the whole EU in its current state.

History repeats itself. Learner about the Roman Empire? Back then they were much more slaves than the Romans. Look what happened later Osman Turks captured Constantinople. They tried to colonize Europe in 1683 by fighting their way through Austria.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Please vote 'leave'. It's not only about UK but the whole EU in its current state.

History repeats itself. Learner about the Roman Empire? Back then they were much more slaves than the Romans. Look what happened later Osman Turks captured Constantinople. They tried to colonize Europe in 1683 by fighting their way through Austria.

What is your point exactly here? I don't get it.

You're afraid the Turks are coming to Vienna again?

 

[WinterX]

What is your point exactly here? I don't get it.

You're afraid the Turks are coming to Vienna again?

My point is the EU is already a deadman. They focus too much on helping people from around the world forgetting about their own people. I live in the Netherlands and since 2008 all kind of stuff went higher.

Refugess are only part of the problem. The problem lies within socialism. Donation here, donation there. Some silly production limits for milk and many other things. This is almost like communism.

During feudalism slave had to pay 10% tax, but his master had to take good care of him and his family. He provided home to him and food.

Now we pay much more tax for many different stuff and in return we get nothing. Do you have any idea how much do I pay for renting a house in the Netherlands? It takes 3/4 of my income.

Everything went very expensive after moving from gulden to euro.

 

[Frankfurter]

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/742622522131222528

keep telling urself that

Is this guy an idiot?

 

[theaface]

Just had this gem through the door along with two other leaflets extolling the """facts""" around the EU. Just, ugh.

I'm resolutely voting remain but I feel resigned to the fact leave will win. It really gets me down that SO many people will be voting based on misinformation and emotion over logic/fact. Such a shame that the media is so rarely a force for good in this country.

 

[FlammableD]

This is going to be a double whammy of disappointment after the general that I'm not sure I can take.

 

[ClosingADoor]

My point is the EU is already a deadman. They focus too much on helping people from around the world forgetting about their own people. I live in the Netherlands and since 2008 all kind of stuff went higher.

Refugess are only part of the problem. The problem lies within socialism. Donation here, donation there. Some silly production limits for milk and many other things. This is almost like communism.

During feudalism slave had to pay 10% tax, but his master had to take good care of him and his family. He provided home to him and food.

Now we pay much more tax for many different stuff and in return we get nothing. Do you have any idea how much do I pay for renting a house in the Netherlands? It takes 3/4 of my income.

Everything went very expensive after moving from gulden to euro.

Are you seriously comparing the way we have it now in Western Europe to feudalism? And making the argument that feudalism was better, since then at least your master provided a home and food?

Dutch also, I know the issues here all too well. Renting is not an EU problem. This is because of the lack of houses being built. The supply is ridiculously low in places like Amsterdam and other cities. This is the same in the UK and other places. Look at New York and San Francisco and their housing prices.

Most of your issues are not a result of the EU. They are of our own failings and incompetent politicians. For example, having a coalition of left and right as we do now, the result being that both have to give in on their programs too much and we have no clear direction and at a stand still. Our country is divided and the political landscape is a mess. But that will not be any different without the EU.

As a Dutchman you should very well know how much of our economy is based on international business. Closing borders and making that more difficult will be a mess.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

My hunch at the moment is a Leave vote followed by a general election by Christmas. There won't be a functioning Conservative voting bloc after this and the PLP may well end up forcing Corbyn out too.

Leave found their one issue to shout about which clicked - immigration. People don't care that the economic argument for Leave is nonexistent.

As a Lib Dem I don't mind - we stand to gain in general with party mood and numbers up - but I doubt a Leave vote will close this matter. This entire issue strikes at the core of Britain's issues with power and class, and a Leave vote will just open that wound further.

 

[WinterX]

Are you seriously comparing the way we have it now in Western Europe to feudalism? And making the argument that feudalism was better, since then at least your master provided a home and food?

Dutch also, I know the issues here all too well. Renting is not an EU problem. This is because of the lack of houses being built. The supply is ridiculously low in places like Amsterdam and other cities. This is the same in the UK and other places. Look at New York and San Francisco and their housing prices.

Most of your issues are not a result of the EU. They are of our own failings and incompetent politicians. For example, having a coalition of left and right as we do now, the result being that both have to give in on their programs too much and we have no clear direction and at a stand still. Our country is divided and the political landscape is a mess. But that will not be any different without the EU.

As a Dutchman you should very well know how much of our economy is based on international business. Closing borders and making that more difficult will be a mess.

Well, I simply tried to show people who is really a slave right now. I know there are many poor regions in the world but in the next 100 years they will probably live on a higher life level than people here in Europe. Take a look at China or South Korea. Some 30-40 years ago they were extremely poor. They didn't have the EU and could take their economy on a higher level. Chinese people laugh at Europeans that we don't want to work and rely too much on benefits - it's TRUE. But the problem is socialism and too many taxes. Bijstand or WW-uitkering are no longer considered a temporary help. Same happens in France or UK.

Housing is not a problem? How long do you have to wait for a social acommodation? Refugess are getting houses instead of other Dutch people. Same happened recently in Germany. Quite not fair I would say, don't you think?

Socialism bravely tries to solve problems it had developed. Want to get better income? Sure, get a second job, you'll pay MUCH more tax. Want to study? Sure, get a credit. Meanwhile try to find some work so you won't have to rely on your parents

Just take a look what's the current situation with young people in Spain, Italy and Greece. It's a disaster!

 

[ultratruman]

If we really do vote leave, the only hope left is that another Scottish referendum would appear on the horizon, and we can kiss goodbye to this sinking, bewildered nation.

 

[le-seb]

Some analysts are thinking that a Leave vote would have almost no impact on the EU economy, but that a Remain vote could be detrimental. Source ( in French.)

 

[Tak3n]

If we really do vote leave, the only hope left is that another Scottish referendum would appear on the horizon, and we can kiss goodbye to this sinking, bewildered nation.

but you will all ready be out of the EU, so you would be negotiating with the EU from zero strength...which means taking the Euro... and Nicola Sturgeon all ready said she would not accept that.... but the UK Government will say you are not keeping the pound if you re-join the EU

Stale-Mate

Oh, and it is generally believed that there is a common consensus in the SNP they would want at least 6 years of polling data showing at least a 60% for independence, before they would even consider a new vote

 

[ClosingADoor]

Well, I simply tried to show people who is really a slave right now. I know there are many poor regions in the world but in the next 100 years they will probably live on a higher life level than people here in Europe. Take a look at China or South Korea. Some 30-40 years ago they were extremely poor. They didn't have the EU and could take their economy on a higher level. Chinese people laugh at Europeans that we don't want to work and rely too much on benefits - it's TRUE. But the problem is socialism and too many taxes. Bijstand or WW-uitkering are no longer considered a temporary help. Same happens in France or UK.

Housing is not a problem? How long do you have to wait for a social acommodation? Refugess are getting houses instead of other Dutch people. Same happened recently in Germany. Quite not fair I would say, don't you think?

Socialism bravely tries to solve problems it had developed. Want to get better income? Sure, get a second job, you'll pay MUCH more tax. Want to study? Sure, get a credit. Meanwhile try to find some work so you won't have to rely on your parents

Just take a look what's the current situation with young people in Spain, Italy and Greece. It's a disaster!

You are naming issues that have nothing to do with the EU and go all over the place. You are blaming the wrong institutions. How is the EU responsible for our housing problems and who gets social housing here? That is on our own government.

I'm far from happy with the current situation in this country, but it is more of a failing from local governments and national politicians pushing issues forward, making some new commissions to investigate what we already know and make a fuss about issues nobody really cares about. Not the EU in itself. And removing yourself from the EU will do nothing to fix those issues.

And you are contradicting yourself a bit. On the one hand you are saying, people here should work harder and get off welfare, on the other you complain not enough people get social housing.

Let's not start to compare ourselves to China. GDP per capita in Netherlands is $49,166, UK is $41,159 and China an impressive $14,107. When you come from nothing, you can grow a lot in a short time. They'll hit a ceiling and declining growth, which is happening already.

 

[Tak3n]

What people don't realise is that people coming over now don't get half what they use to get, gone are the days of free houses for all Polish...

In my local area unless you have lived here for 10 years you are not even allowed on the housing register

 

[TeddyBoy]

If we really do vote leave, the only hope left is that another Scottish referendum would appear on the horizon, and we can kiss goodbye to this sinking, bewildered nation.

I'll be joining you ultratruman

 

[WinterX]

You are naming issues that have nothing to do with the EU and go all over the place. You are blaming the wrong institutions. How is the EU responsible for our housing problems and who gets social housing here? That is on our own government.

I'm far from happy with the current situation in this country, but it is more of a failing from local governments and national politicians pushing issues forward, making some new commissions to investigate what we already know and make a fuss about issues nobody really cares about. Not the EU in itself. And removing yourself from the EU will do nothing to fix those issues.

And you are contradicting yourself a bit. On the one hand you are saying, people here should work harder and get off welfare, on the other you complain not enough people get social housing.

Let's not start to compare ourselves to China. GDP per capita in Netherlands is $49,166, UK is $41,159 and China an impressive $14,107. When you come from nothing, you can grow a lot in a short time. They'll hit a ceiling and declining growth, which is happening already.

You're half wrong. The EU has too much influence on each country. They can involve Venetian Commision on some matters. EU should simply stick with economics, nothing more.

You really thought that letting millions of people from Eastern Europe would solve anything? Making a mix of this kind made many Western Europeans really mad. There are almost 300k Poles in the Netherlands and many many more from other Eastern European countries. Now the governement wants to provide some help to refugess and let them in. Yeah, great idea. Especially when tax payers will get the bill.

 

[Goodlife]

and the PLP may well end up forcing Corbyn out too.
.

It's not going to happen, unless he falls on his sword

 

[ClosingADoor]

You're half wrong. The EU has too much influence on each country. They can involve Venetian Commision on some matters. EU should simply stick with economics, nothing more.

You really thought that letting millions of people from Eastern Europe would solve anything? Making a mix of this kind made many Western Europeans really mad. There are almost 300k Poles in the Netherlands and many many more from other Eastern European countries. Now the governement wants to provide some help to refugess and let them in. Yeah, great idea. Especially when tax payers will get the bill.

Refugee policy is also an UN thing, not just the EU. I think letting in Eastern Europe was the right call. Russia is still a threat and having them in the EU is strengthening them. The only problem I have with it, is that it went to quick. Before moving on to Romania and Bulgaria and the Balkans, Poland should have had more room to grow and catch up.

I just think it is too easy to blame everything on the EU. It makes for nice headlines and gets politicians some votes, but in the end most problems any EU country has is mostly their own making.

Your 300k from Poland here, is that including seasonal workers or something? Because only 150.000 are actually living here. That is also the biggest group, so there are not many many more from other Eastern European countries.

 

[dalin80]

Some analysts are thinking that a Leave vote would have almost no impact on the EU economy, but that a Remain vote could be detrimental. Source ( in French.)

Right... Losing it's 4th largest contributor, the worlds 5th most powerful economy* and a massive sign of low faith would have no effect on the EU's economy. Okey-Dokey.

*Last I heard the GDP growth was on track to overtake Japan?

 

[8bit]

If we really do vote leave, the only hope left is that another Scottish referendum would appear on the horizon, and we can kiss goodbye to this sinking, bewildered nation.

You had your chance. Yer teas oot.

 

[WinterX]

Refugee policy is also an UN thing, not just the EU. I think letting in Eastern Europe was the right call. Russia is still a threat and having them in the EU is strengthening them. The only problem I have with it, is that it went to quick. Before moving on to Romania and Bulgaria and the Balkans, Poland should have had more room to grow and catch up.

I just think it is too easy to blame everything on the EU. It makes for nice headlines and gets politicians some votes, but in the end most problems any EU country has is mostly their own making.

Your 300k from Poland here, is that including seasonal workers or something? Because only 150.000 are actually living here. That is also the biggest group, so there are not many many more from other Eastern European countries.

Refugee is also an UN thing, I agree. But the whole problem was presented by Angela Merkel who you know is from Germany. She has no influence on EU. At least officially, we both know that Tusk was her choice and he's hers puppet.

150k is only legally registered in Gemeente thoughout the Netherlands. Another 150k are season worker who are not registered but live here. Many not for a month but for longer time.

 

[danowat]

Take control and regain sovereignty. This is about democracy. Any pain will be worth it to allow Britain to be great again.

Ah yes, because leaving the EU is all we need to do to reinvent the empire, win the world cup again, and win another world war.

Seriously, if you think it's only the EU that is standing in the way of greatness, you are sadly deluded.

 

[PJV3]

I hope we get rid of this decimal bollocks when we leave.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

My point is the EU is already a deadman. They focus too much on helping people from around the world forgetting about their own people. I live in the Netherlands and since 2008 all kind of stuff went higher.

Refugess are only part of the problem. The problem lies within socialism. Donation here, donation there. Some silly production limits for milk and many other things. This is almost like communism.

During feudalism slave had to pay 10% tax, but his master had to take good care of him and his family. He provided home to him and food.

Now we pay much more tax for many different stuff and in return we get nothing. Do you have any idea how much do I pay for renting a house in the Netherlands? It takes 3/4 of my income.

Everything went very expensive after moving from gulden to euro.

Geloof je echt dat jouw belasting zal verdwijnen als je het EU verlaat? It will most likely increase.

 

[Thejackburton]

My point is the EU is already a deadman. They focus too much on helping people from around the world forgetting about their own people. I live in the Netherlands and since 2008 all kind of stuff went higher.

Refugess are only part of the problem. The problem lies within socialism. Donation here, donation there. Some silly production limits for milk and many other things. This is almost like communism.

During feudalism slave had to pay 10% tax, but his master had to take good care of him and his family. He provided home to him and food.

Now we pay much more tax for many different stuff and in return we get nothing. Do you have any idea how much do I pay for renting a house in the Netherlands? It takes 3/4 of my income.

Everything went very expensive after moving from gulden to euro.

While I don't agree with everything this guy says. Countries that adopted the euro currency saw everything price wise go up as fuck.

In Italy you could get a massive pizza from a nice pizzeria for 10,000 lira. You know how much that was? £3.50....

Same shit will cost you 12-15 euros now.

Obviously this forum has a lot of members in their 20s so a lot of people will be too young to know/remember.

I feel the euro currency for has been nothing but a disaster for your average citizen, but guess what, travelling to france or germany? you don't have to exchange your monies Yay!

 

[Chinner]

Market is bottoming out, I think we could see the FESE 1000 reach 5000s relatively soon.