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[QuicheFontaine]

I haven't been watching polls on this, so how likely will this happen?

Bookie odds? At the moment, roughly 2/1 Leave, 1/2 Remain.

But they've been moving towards Leave. I stuck a tenner on Leave a couple of months ago, and you won't find those odds now.

So far, it's not going to happen, but only just if you go by the polls.

The polls were so wrong at the general election that it's worth remembering that they may not be a good indication. Also sounds like a lot of people are still undecided.

I wish they put a turnout threshold on this thing. Feels too big of a consequence if only 30% of the population bother to show up.

I reaaaaaally doubt this is going to be an issue here. This ain't a referendum on the EU-Ukraine association agreement.

 

[Nicktendo86]

This is all academic by the way, remain will win. It won't even be close, referendums like this result in the status quo. With the government backing remain, countless stories like the treasury report etc, leave have no chance.

And that's from someone who will vote leave.

Edit: The only possible way leave could win is due to turnout, old people will vote leave and they tend to vote, lazy youngsters can't be arsed to vote but would vote remain. The 25-40 age bracket will be crucial.

 

[Walshicus]

Well, Westminster just has to say 'no'.

Westminster can say what it wants. Doesn't mean Holyrood has to listen.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Does anyone remember that re-negotiation back in Feb? What a fucking waste of time that was, an absolute sham.

Going by Osbourne's OBR reports, we can expect to find his EU treasury report will need a multi billion £ adjustment in a few weeks.

I'm wondering if the Remain campaign remembers it! They haven't even mentioned it for a good old while...

 

[anonymous_abc]

This is all academic by the way, remain will win. It won't even be close, referendums like this result in the status quo. With the government backing remain, countless stories like the treasury report etc, leave have no chance.

And that's from someone who will vote leave.

Edit: The only possible way leave could win is due to turnout, old people will vote leave and they tend to vote, lazy youngsters can't be arsed to vote but would vote remain. The 25-40 age bracket will be crucial.

soyoursayingthereisachance.gif

I don't know what to think any more.
I'm even coming round to the idea of favouring independence myself because that will let the rest of the EU get on with much needed integration.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

soyoursayingthereisachance.gif

I don't know what to think any more.
I'm even coming round to the idea of favouring independence myself because that will let the rest of the EU get on with much needed integration.

There was a phone-in on Radio 4 over the weekend, and a German listener phoned in to make that exact point. It's a fair enough point, there's been talk of a two-speed EU for a while now. I say let those who want their USofE get on with it.

 

[Nicktendo86]

soyoursayingthereisachance.gif

I don't know what to think any more.
I'm even coming round to the idea of favouring independence myself because that will let the rest of the EU get on with much needed integration.

In all honesty I feel pretty much the same. There is very little appetite in the UK for being part of a European superstate but that direction is probably where the EU needs to go in order to make things like the euro and integrated migration policy work. And by work I mean for all states, not just the big ones.

In a way I think we're holding the EU back. A two speed Europe doesn't work, we need to be either full in or completely out.

 

[Turnbl]

Let's just say for one moment that leave wins, I really can't see what the UK identity 'won back' would be. We don't manufacture any more. I'm not sure what we're good at (aside from darts). Science? Tech?

I'd have sincere doubts that the current UK leadership or population would be savvy enough to prosper. I basically think we're a country of lazy wasters. Is that wrong?

 

[danowat]

Let's just say for one moment that leave wins, I really can't see what the UK identity 'won back' would be. We don't manufacture any more. I'm not sure what we're good at (aside from darts). Science? Tech

Too many people think that, with us out of the EU, we'll got back to the glory days of the empire, combine that with the massive xenophobia that is present in huge swathes of the country.

 

[KingSnake]

soyoursayingthereisachance.gif

I don't know what to think any more.
I'm even coming round to the idea of favouring independence myself because that will let the rest of the EU get on with much needed integration.

I also think that this could be the positive side of a leave vote, at least on EU side, UK being the main saboteur of any deeper integration.

 

[Frankfurter]

Well, Westminster just has to say 'no'. Ending the Union isn't a devolved power, which is why the Edinburgh Agreement was signed back in 2012 to allow for the referendum. They could go for a unilateral declaration of independence, but that'd be a horrific mess.

Politically it might be a different matter.

I feel like once Westminster does that, the UK is done. Scotland will be pissed and even those Scots that were slightly opposed to the idea of leaving the UK will feel like they should have a right to vote on the matter and decide on their own. And that will ultimately lead to a strong majority favoring Scoxit.

 

[cabot]

I feel like once Westminster does that, the UK is done. Scotland will be pissed and even does Scots that were slightly opposed to the idea of leaving the UK will feel like they should have a right to vote on the matter and decide on their own. And that will ultimately lead to a strong majority favoring Scoxit.

Don't you dare.

 

[8bit]

Let's just say for one moment that leave wins, I really can't see what the UK identity 'won back' would be. We don't manufacture any more. I'm not sure what we're good at (aside from darts). Science? Tech?

I'd have sincere doubts that the current UK leadership or population would be savvy enough to prosper. I basically think we're a country of lazy wasters. Is that wrong?

World class skiving, bants and being a bit cheeky.

Scoxit.

Oh no.

 

[anonymous_abc]

I feel like once Westminster does that, the UK is done. Scotland will be pissed and even does Scots that were slightly opposed to the idea of leaving the UK will feel like they should have a right to vote on the matter and decide on their own. And that will ultimately lead to a strong majority favoring Scoxit.

 

[Frankfurter]

Haha

 

[Hasney]

Scoxit.

Did you type that while enjoying some Scoats for breakfast?

 

[cabot]

Did you type that while enjoying some Scoats for breakfast?

or maybe perhaps a Scaggis roll?

 

[Heartfyre]

Scotland is kinda in a funny situation, though. Like, Ireland has not been a part of the UK for almost 100 years and yet the UK is still is largest trading partner by a long, long way (geographical proximity, shared language, shared culture, historic tires, Northern Ireland etc all play a role in that), to the extent that if Brexit were to happen Ireland would have to seriously think about what to do, lest they find themselves in a trade union that doesn't include their largest trade partner.

I know that you're not asking this as a question, but just so you know, there's zero appetite in Ireland for leaving the EU, even with trade relations with the UK being considered. No political party elected to the Dail supports the idea of Ireland leaving the European Union. The UK has UKIP, France has Le Front National, and The Netherlands has the PVV, but Ireland has nothing that cleanly compares. You can make arguments for Sinn Fein being similar in aspects, and let's not go there, but even they're saying they will "campaign vigorously" in favour of remaining. Of course, there may not be too much of an issue with trade relations since, in the event of Brexit, if the UK wants to continue to trade with the European market (and it does), some deal will have to be made between the EU and the UK that Ireland would avail of as part of that. Ireland cares a lot about the result of this referendum, though. We've got a good thing going.

Scoxit.

I'm still trying to figure out how to pronounce this. Scoh-zit? Scog-zit?

 

[Zutroy]

I wonder if we do vote to leave how long the SNP would wait until a second Indy reference.

I voted to remain at the last vote, and then we got a Tory majority after, which just painted a clear picture for me that England is leaning even more right while we continue to lean left, and I just don't see what the benefit would be staying together when politically our gap is dividing. I guess I'm one of the votes the SNP are hoping will switch sides. I wonder how many others resonate with my thoughts.

 

[Walshicus]

or maybe perhaps a Scaggis roll?

Whilst dipping your bread soldiers into a scotch egg?

Spoiler

Right? Right??

 

[Camp Freddie]

I also think that this could be the positive side of a leave vote, at least on EU side, UK being the main saboteur of any deeper integration.

Yes, Minister. As relevant today as when it was written:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVrN-gkzVYI

The only reason to Leave is the continued right-wing Trumpist bullshit about being able to "protect our borders" from all those nasty Eastern Europeans, with their despicably strong work ethic, their disgracefully high productivity and downright scandalous ability to contribute more via taxation than they ever relieve in benefits or healthcare.

For the economy, we'll be sticking to all the EU rules (because we need to trade with the EU) but now we'll have no say in writing them and will have to enforce them via a domestic trade regulatory body what can't draw upon pooled EU expertise (which will cost at least as much as our share of the EU budget).

And yeah, Scotland will fuck off - maybe followed by Wales if they want some agricultural subsidy. Then trade negotiations will be a bit more difficult when Scotland and Ireland are part of a 30-state trading bloc and we've got... Boris.

Personally, the thing I hate most is people arguing to leave because of the lack of transparency in Europe. That's the same Europe where trade rules are debated in open parliament by elected MEPs, and where even the meetings/decisions of the bureucrats (i.e. the European Commission) are published on the internet for all to read.
I'm sure things will be much more transparent when our trade is negotiated by Boris and his industry chums behind closed doors. After all, TTIP is such a wonderfully transparent process...

Also, Scoxit. How can any Leave voter claim to represent Britain when their actions will lead to more debates containing this etymological abomination.

 

[Camp Freddie]

Whilst dipping your bread soldiers into a scotch egg?

Spoiler

Right? Right??

They're called Scoggs from now on.

 

[Jezbollah]

I wonder if we do vote to leave how long the SNP would wait until a second Indy reference.

I voted to remain at the last vote, and then we got a Tory majority after, which just painted a clear picture for me that England is leaning even more right while we continue to lean left, and I just don't see what the benefit would be staying together when politically our gap is dividing. I guess I'm one of the votes the SNP are hoping will switch sides. I wonder how many others resonate with my thoughts.

Well, they will have a much better reason to push for a second referendum in the event of a Leave vote than they were hinting at due to the results of the last election.

I'd give it two weeks from the Leave vote happening to the actual announcement of intention to have a Referendum.

 

[JonathanEx]

Well, they will have a much better reason to push for a second referendum in the event of a Leave vote than they were hinting at due to the results of the last election.

I'd give it two weeks from the Leave vote happening to the actual announcement of intention to have a Referendum.

That would make sense in this hypothetical. You've got to let the chaos that would happen in the Tory party happen and actually start falling apart, because if you're too quick you could make them unite round disliking the Scots again.

 

[Walshicus]

They're called Scoggs from now on.

Sceggxit.

Fuck, "Scotch Exit" just works on its own...

 

[CyclopsRock]

innit

 

[Jezbollah]

All this Scoxit makes me think of Scotch Eggs. SHCTAP PEOPLE. So hungry...

 

[Daemul]

Holy shit you guys are killing me, Scoxit is a terrible term. In fact, all the --xit terms are horrid.

 

[Uzzy]

Westminster can say what it wants. Doesn't mean Holyrood has to listen.

Well, given that changes to the constitutional status of the UK, such as Scottish independence, are a reserved power and in the hands of Westminster, Holyrood kinda has to listen, if they want a legal referendum. The SNP may think highly of themselves, but they aren't above the law.

I feel like once Westminster does that, the UK is done. Scotland will be pissed and even those Scots that were slightly opposed to the idea of leaving the UK will feel like they should have a right to vote on the matter and decide on their own. And that will ultimately lead to a strong majority favoring Scoxit.

If they call it Scoxit, they can forget about leaving the UK. They'll be kicked out faster than they can say it again.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Holy shit you guys are killing me, Scoxit is a terrible term. In fact, all the --xit terms are horrid.

Czexit is amazing.

 

[ClivePwned]

Holy shit you guys are killing me, Scoxit is a terrible term. In fact, all the --xit terms are horrid.

what about Gerxit for Germany leaving?

 

[Frankfurter]

I'm sorry for the Scoxit term, but I fear now we'll have to stick with it forever.

 

[CyclopsRock]

How about Scagxit?

 

[Walshicus]

Seriously guys, I think we should stick with Scotch Exit.

 

[Jimbob Smalls]

Seriously guys, I think we should stick with Scotch Exit.

I prefer Scotch Eggzit.

 

[Phantast2k]

This is all academic by the way, remain will win. It won't even be close, referendums like this result in the status quo. With the government backing remain, countless stories like the treasury report etc, leave have no chance.

And that's from someone who will vote leave.

Edit: The only possible way leave could win is due to turnout, old people will vote leave and they tend to vote, lazy youngsters can't be arsed to vote but would vote remain. The 25-40 age bracket will be crucial.

Welp,

@alextomo
Brexit audience tonight- make your own judgement about age, demographic and ethnicity.

 

[Maledict]

Yep. I'm convinced we are going to vote to leave, and it will; be down to turnout. Those who want to leave are old, those who want to stay young That is not a good demographic to win elections on, and I still don't think labour are doing enough to get the vote out.

 

[Walshicus]

Was doing a bit of searching for an EU website link and came across this:

http://news.sky.com/story/1266181/the-top-10-european-union-myths-debunked

How did that get past Murdoch?

 

[Phantast2k]

EU loophole could see 77 MILLION Turks head to Britain, warn Farage and Johnson | Daily Express

 

[Dennis]

EU loophole could see 77 MILLION Turks head to Britain, warn Farage and Johnson | Daily Express

 

[QuicheFontaine]

EU loophole could see 77 MILLION Turks head to Britain, warn Farage and Johnson | Daily Express

I wondered what the loophole was, and read that they would have the right of free movement if they became German citizens.

Lol, that's not really a "loophole", now is it?

 

[Thornton Reed]

There is a lot of talk of talk about the vote leaves demographic. I work for a fairly big web company there is about 15 or so staff in our satellite office in Liverpool and the vast majority is voting out. This is the young professional demographic which you would naturally think would vote in. It's on a knife edge this. I'm still on the fence

 

[Lucreto]

There is a lot of talk of talk about the vote leaves demographic. I work for a fairly big web company there is about 15 or so staff in our satellite office in Liverpool and the vast majority is voting out. This is the young professional demographic which you would naturally think would vote in. It's on a knife edge this. I'm still on the fence

Was it just a poll or did they give a reason on why they want to vote out?

 

[ClosingADoor]

EU loophole could see 77 MILLION Turks head to Britain, warn Farage and Johnson | Daily Express

What the hell. So this:

Mr Farage explained that even though visa free access will apply only to the Schengen zone, which Britain is not included in, migrants could still abuse the system by applying for German residency and being granted an EU passport

Is now 77 million people suddenly flooding the UK? Yes, when someone gets a EU passport, they can get to the UK without a visa. Doesn't mean they will be given a EU passport.

And they can come without checks. So Britain is just going to stop border control suddenly? What a bunch of tools.

There is a lot of talk of talk about the vote leaves demographic. I work for a fairly big web company there is about 15 or so staff in our satellite office in Liverpool and the vast majority is voting out. This is the young professional demographic which you would naturally think would vote in. It's on a knife edge this. I'm still on the fence

Amazing. I'm sure international work like internet companies will not at all feel any hurt when leaving an economic union...

 

[Uzzy]

EU loophole could see 77 MILLION Turks head to Britain, warn Farage and Johnson | Daily Express

I kinda want to vote remain just to see the Express' meltdown. It'll be a sight for the ages.

 

[Jimbob Smalls]

Was it just a poll or did they give a reason on why they want to vote out?

Northern towns and cities will have a stronger out inclination in general. The lower cost of living / housing means that the lower earning migrants get encouraged to settle there with all the social issues that comes with that.

 

[Walshicus]

Northern towns and cities will have a stronger out inclination in general. The lower cost of living / housing means that the lower earning migrants get encouraged to settle there with all the social issues that comes with that.

Eh? Isn't there a fairly well known inverse relationship between ethic diversity and racism/xenophobia? In that BNP/UKIP support is generally higher in areas with low non-native populations?

 

[CyclopsRock]

Eh? Isn't there a fairly well known inverse relationship between ethic diversity and racism/xenophobia? In that BNP/UKIP support is generally higher in areas with low non-native populations?

Well the person you quoted didn't say anything about racism.

 

[anonymous_abc]

There is a lot of talk of talk about the vote leaves demographic. I work for a fairly big web company there is about 15 or so staff in our satellite office in Liverpool and the vast majority is voting out. This is the young professional demographic which you would naturally think would vote in. It's on a knife edge this. I'm still on the fence

Well that is hardly a poll, more anecdotal evidence. I'm sure there are angry old folk who will vote in too...
But I agree that it will be on a knife's edge.

 

[Jimbob Smalls]

Eh? Isn't there a fairly well known inverse relationship between ethic diversity and racism/xenophobia? In that BNP/UKIP support is generally higher in areas with low non-native populations?

I've read and re read this post and decided that you've quoted the wrong person.