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Brexit | OT3 | A Feast for Crows
- Thread starter theaface
- Start date
All this bad news, and only 52% of people are against Brexit.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...heresa-may-florence-speech-tory-a7960226.html
And you know if they re-ran the vote people would be so outraged that they'd vote Brexit just out of spite.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...heresa-may-florence-speech-tory-a7960226.html
And you know if they re-ran the vote people would be so outraged that they'd vote Brexit just out of spite.
Psychotext
Member
In shock news, people are still insular idiots who would rather blame everyone else for their issues.
been trying to tell people that, brexit was a done deal the moment it happened. There was never going to be a re vote or vote on the deal or anything else. The Lib Dems learned this the hard way when thought that would read the mood of the country from social media and now they're more irrelevant than ever. The best thing Labour did was put out that fire early and go with "we respect the result and blahblahblahglfkng"
Anyway, May's £20bn deal looks like a relatively smart move (or the only one she has left now). I think Boris's attempt to rally support for a hard brexit died on its arse and now they've all conceded they'll probably need a transitional deal and some
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That's also more or less within the margin of error of the original result, so we don't even have sufficient evidence to say that anyone has changed their mind.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
Tried to explain Brexit to my non-european colleague. She just couldn't understand why a whole country would harm itself, for literally no reason. All she could say was "How is it that their hatred for non-brits is that severe?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/theresa-may-will-deliver-her-big-pitch-to-the-eu-on-friday
I dunno, I don't really see this going down well.
I dunno, I don't really see this going down well.
You have no proof of this. Lets see how the midterms turn out first.
There isn't much new. It's kicking the can down the road. 20 billion is just some of what the UK owe. Will the EU bite, I think they might entertain it but not accept everything because a transitional deal just delays everything two years, all the disagreements, having their cake still exist. UK still wants single market access without the strings. Citizen rights etc. which the EU is firm on from day zero.
Is the UK hoping Brexit enthusiasm changes in two years and then call it off. EU reforms during that tine that they can sell to the public. I dunno. It seems like a desperate case of trying not to follow through.
Is the UK hoping Brexit enthusiasm changes in two years and then call it off. EU reforms during that tine that they can sell to the public. I dunno. It seems like a desperate case of trying not to follow through.
The speech preview seems like it's going to be another ridiculous "you need us, so put more effort" rhetoric that the EU commision is tired of (and offended by). The EU has moved on and sees the UK more as a nuinance nowadays, while the government is losing relevance but does not realize it.
Hope there's more to the speech than the previews because this is just frustrating.
Hope there's more to the speech than the previews because this is just frustrating.
Yup. Awaiting the full version but the excerpt reads like "We moved an inch, now you move a mile. Please? Think of our children!"
Call my cynical but I'd say it's more like the party game 'Pass the Bomb'. The Tories want to hold on to Brexit for as long as they can, have another GE come and go before the transitional period is up, and leave Labour holding the Brexit bomb when it eventually and inevitably blows.
If I understood this correctly, she's offering 20bn to 'pay' for the transactional period so Britain can continue to enjoy all the benefits of the EU in the interim, but she's also trying to claim that this is the money that settles the divorce accounts, e.g.: all that was agreed by the 28 nations up until 2010.
So in a way she is trying to get the transactional period benefits 'for free' as opposed to paying what was agreed until 2010 and then negotiating what the transactional agreement bill would be like.
I'll give her points for her cunty chutzpah, but if she thinks this is going to fly with Barnier et al she's deluded.
mehrmantrout
Member
I can't wait for this speech today, in Florence, to a room full of journalists, whilst all the EU leaders watch it at home, probably laughing about it in their whatsapp group
Its going to be a car crash
Its going to be a car crash
Monty Mole
Member
When is the speech?
Starwolf_UK
Member
The main reason I want to watch it live is not just to get pissed off on GAF about it (and make the "no negotiation no compromise and no mercy"* joke again) but the journalist reactions and Q&A as those tend to get omitted from the useless sound bites reported.
*-Though the full quote ("Our people can't 'coexist peacefully.' We can't coexist, period! It's us or you, you arrogant wormno negotiation, no compromise, and no mercy!") sounds like something a frustrated Breiteer would come out with
Monty Mole
Member
Let's be honest, this speech isn't for Barnier who will just repeat the usual stance in response, it's aimed at the other EU leaders to try and get them to put pressure on from their side. Not that I expect it to work.
Yes I want to watch it live too but for the life of me I can find no information anywhere on what time the speech is scheduled for.
EDIT: 2PM apparently http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...a-may-time-start-florence-how-to-watch-stream
The UK only has a financial commitments to the EU until 2020 and we leave in March 2019 so the £20bn would be paying for an additional two years of single market access at roughly what we pay now which is waaaaaayyyy more than counties like Norway do. We're still in the EU and continue to fund it until March 2019 so there's no point where it would be "free".
The £100bn some on the EU side floated is never happening and they can moan about it all they like but they need to eventually sort brexit out just as much as the UK.
Monty Mole
Member
I'd imagine the cost of single market access would be somewhat based on the size of your economy, in which case we should be paying much more than Norway.
Same reason we already pay a lot more in to the EU pot than the vast majority of the other 27 members. Not sure why France pays so much more in to the EU when they're a similarly sized economy though.
Ha, yeah that's a possibility, mould it, let it harden enough that Labour can't do anything about it but are left with the mess in power then the Tories pick up the carcass the following election.
Yeah, I said similar on the last page. It's not deductible but when the transition is over, it totally is, ha fooled them. The EU isn't going to fall for it and I guess they will be painted as greedy when they slap this back as nothing has really changed but all leavers will see is EU knocked back 20 billion.
This isn't going to unblock anything. Whether the EU takes the 20bn carrot and thinks it can get the other billions, I really doubt it because the UK still wants single market access without the strings and other things, it's bizarre.
We are basically back to square one with a sentence changed.
I want the cake, I'll pay you something later.
20 billion for the cake and free cakes there after, I'm good for it.
Farming subsidies probably. France is ridiculous on that front. They've got it good.
I think this is a bit of a bold statement to make solely on the basis of Jean-Claude Juncker's speech the other day. It's in his interests to act like this is no big deal and he's a hardcore European federalist. The EU has not moved on, it's just trying to reassure the polity of its member states that leaving = bad, to be discouraged, and remaining = good, to be desired. But regardless, their third largest net contributor is leaving, and I'm not so sure there's another member state willing -- and if willing, able -- to assume the UK's role in the bloc.
The UK is performing poorly in negotiations so far, but it's not going to be demoted to third world country status. I voted remain, but the preaching is annoying even I.
There was a curious case of a Brexiteer at work. He became a rabid nutter about the thing over the past 2 years. Turns out he is actually a white supremacist and is terrified of the white race dying out or some other shit. No shit Sherlock moment for me when I heard that.
It turns out, in fact, there are a lot of racists in this country. They tend to be more polite and subtle about it. Where do you think the American South got its racism from?
I do wonder if the UK is just going to pay 20 billion every two years and hope to wing it until Brexit can be worked out, either EU makes appealing strides or UK comes to their senses. They would rather have single market access than leave and the EU isn't going to cave so that's a stalemate, the UK still wants a seat at the global table, don't believe the leave rhetoric for a second. They are wasting everyone's time and this is all a stupid game to end up at the same place, a game that must be played to save face and change public opinion, perhaps but a very silly one.
CyclopsRock
Member
I think France paying a lot of basically an in-joke for the EU. About 40% of the EU's budget is just paying farmers to be farmers, and a big old chunk of them are in France to the point where France does make a net contribution, but only just.
I mean CAP is absolute horseshit, it really is. It's weird, it started off as a sort of weird bribe by the Germans and I'm not sure how it's stuck around for so long.
Frankfurter
Member
It's curious timing tbh. German federal election is on Sunday, so don't expect any politician from the current government to do or say anything substantial after this speech. Then it'll take atleast a month until a new government is formed, so the speech will be old...
I feel like France and Germany would be the ones with enough power to change a little bit in the EU (for the UK), but they'd have to work together, which won't happen because of the election.
I feel like France and Germany would be the ones with enough power to change a little bit in the EU (for the UK), but they'd have to work together, which won't happen because of the election.
The CAP itself is a horrible faf. But agriculture subsidy is pretty much an necessary to continue to have an agricultural centre. Western European economies simply don't have the space (the UK especially) to do mega-agriculture on the scale of the US, Canada, Australia and South America, and wait until mass scale mega-agriculture hits Africa.
So you're left with two options. 1) hide behind a tariff barrier and basically keep prices artificially high to the point where local producers can exist in the market 2) subsidise the bahooky out of agriculture.
Most western countries do a bit of both. The EU just takes the subsidies a bit further because of their additional competitive weakness.
Of course this assumes that you see agriculture as an industry worth saving, most people agree for food security that it is.
Why do they need to say anything if the speech is just the same bullshit as always?
Frankfurter
Member
Well, this assumed that May has something meaningful to say. That's unlikely, though ^^
From what they're trailing it'll be somewhat meaningful (there's some movement on money, some movement on guarantees of citizens rights) but will fall short.
Nothing on Ireland beyond a request for 'creativity' will ensure it falls short.
Dr Zhivago
Member
3 million more people voted for Clinton. Trump is only president because the US has a terrible electoral system.
It's only going to cost our public finances £15 billion per year according to the IFS. A bargain for sovereignty and control and stuff.
A number of lawyers and QC's on twitter saying that the 'guarantees' on citizens rights (not codifying them into law but the treaty themselves) just don't work in the UK's legal system. Parliament is sovereign and simply undo what it wants to undo.
You mean an illusion of.
killer_clank
Member
Itll still be progress, Ireland is the weird one of the three because its reallt hard to propose solutions re border if you cant talk trade whatsoever.
Yeah, treaty and legislation would be the way to go there, but I'm not sure how much the EU would trust our Parliament given how much it could change in the next few years. Probably doesn't help that our Home Secretary deported someone despite three court orders ordering them to stop.
mehrmantrout
Member
Lol, the Telegraph are reporting that May will threaten to leave the EU before the 2019 dealine
That'll show em
That'll show em
...what