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British PM Theresa May Brexit Speech 17th January 2017 at 11:45AM GMT

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gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
Lets be honest, she has well and truly called out the EU.... as much as it will be unpopular, she just said we are picking up our ball and going home....

the huge question will be, does the EU blink, or do they remain steadfast in their position

If the EU gives May what she wants in an unqualified way (e.g. all the trade perks, none of the rest), I think more countries could wind up following the UK out. Don't think the EU can afford to blink.
 
Parliament should get a vote on triggering Article 50 after the Supreme Court makes a decision and Labour have already called out May on the Tories going against their manifesto pledge of staying in the Single Market. If Labour has any spine they could show it here. They won't though obviously, they'll roll over.
 

Tak3n

Banned
I can never understand what you mean with these posts.
"called out the EU"
"picking up our ball and going home"
"does the EU blink"
You make this sound like a playground scrap, why do you think the EU would ever "blink" here? What do you think has been "called out" - and to what end?

By saying, she respects their stance on 4 freedoms. but she rejects that, so we will leave the single market if that is your stance, still wants free trade, but give Britain a bad deal and we will take no deal, which will also hurt you (EU)

Called out (is the 4 freedoms really that concrete)
picking up our ball ( fine then, we will leave)
 
So, the parliament and lords get to vote on whatever deal they come up with and if they reject it, then what happens, we leave with nothing or don't leave ?

The former. May was very clear that she was not afraid of leaving without a deal in place (and that it would be preferable to leaving with a "bad" deal).
 

Maztorre

Member
na, if it all does go to shit, I would expect once this generation moves through, I would expect another referendum...30 years or so

Oh good, we can fix this massive farce after I have spent the rest of my working life trying to make ends meet in an offshore tax haven.
 

mnz

Unconfirmed Member
If the EU gives May what she wants in an unqualified way (e.g. all the trade perks, none of the rest), I think more countries could wind up following the UK out. Don't think the EU can afford to blink.
Yep. That's why the EU will even go against its own interests in these talks.
 

Audioboxer

Member
I don't know, the speech seems to be playing pretty well outside of GAF.

It is with the Scottish Nationalists!

C2X477tXgAAFSFR.jpg:small


https://twitter.com/theSNP

One heck of a divided nation incoming, although it's been getting split pretty badly for a while now.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Of course it does. The people who want to leave are self obsessed assholes who think this idiot is sticking it to the man in some form. These people believe the UK is still a world power. This isn't the 1800s anymore. We cannot function without EU support.



This is what the supreme court decision is about. May doesn't think parliment should vote on it.
I think we can we'll just be substantially worse off for it. Keep in mind the UK was one of the largest economies in the EU. Just as it's going to substantially hurt us, it's going to substantially hurt them, but they have a bit id a break in terms business moving headquarters, but the uk makes up a rather large proportion of EU trade. No-one is really winning in this scenario.
 
May: We want tariff free trade with the EU and a customs agreement.
EU: You're not getting that without staying in the single market and accepting the Four Freedoms.
May: Well we don't want that!
EU: Then there's nothing more to be said.
May: ...We want tariff free trade with the EU and a customs agreement.
 

Xando

Member
She was asked the question, about what would happen if they reject it. She didn't answer that question.

Because she knows parliament has no chance but to agree with it unless they want WTO rules.


With that move she basically took parliament out of the equation. Because falling of a cliff is still better than nuking yourself.
 

mnz

Unconfirmed Member
May: We want tariff free trade with the EU and a customs agreement.
EU: You're not getting that without staying in the single market and accepting the Four Freedoms.
May: Well we don't want that!
EU: Then there's nothing more to be said.
May: ...We want tariff free trade with the EU and a customs agreement.
This the crux of the matter and it has not changed since before the vote was even held.
 

Jonnax

Member
Just got in and catching up.

So... how much value did she knock off of the pound this time?

At the end of May’s speech, the pound held on to most of its gains. Against the dollar it was up by 1.74% at $1.2251 as she finished her prepared comments, compared to a 1.1% rise as she began speaking. Against the euro it was up 0.7% at €1.1445.

The FTSE 100, down 0.4% initially, edged lower and fell 0.58% to 7284 as dollar earners fell back as the pound improved.

As she took questions, emphasising Britain was looking for a deal which would benefit both sides, sterling hit its high for the day, up 2% to $1.2293.

The 2% rise is the biggest increase against the dollar since June 20 last year, just ahead of the referendum, and the second biggest since December 2008.

Too early to see I guess.
 
By saying, she respects their stance on 4 freedoms. but she rejects that, so we will leave the single market if that is your stance, still wants free trade, but give Britain a bad deal and we will take no deal, which will also hurt you (EU)

Called out (is the 4 freedoms really that concrete)
picking up our ball ( fine then, we will leave)


The EU can't give the UK a "good" trade deal outside of EEA. It's simply impossibly, because it would undermine its very existance. Even if the EU suffers from that (and it will, no doubt about that), it will have to deal with that. Which means the UK is fucked, if it really goes through with this "strategy", because it obviously will be hurt much worse.
Of course, May and her advisers know that perfectly well, so I'd argue that this is just pandering to her base and when things don't work out (as to be expected), she'll blame the EU for acting irresponsibly. It's indeed a game she is playing. Unfortunately with the lives of people in the UK and the EU.
 
Constantly torn internally between WANTING people to suffer for this decision but being aware that everyone, including those who were against it, will suffer too.

Ugh.

Same here, as always it's gonna be the poorest and most vulnerable people who will be fucked over the most. On the other hand, the smug xenophobia and racism that accompanied the campaign and result mean I won't feel guilty for enjoying the schadenfreude that will follow a hard Brexit.
 

Tugatrix

Member
UK will make a trading deal with the EU of course, just not as good as the single market. It means they'll have to look for stronger and/or better deals with other partners to make up for that loss.

They might not emerge with a stronger economy overall immediately but they'll try to lessen the initial blow brexit. On the other hand, they'll get what they wanted : more control on their borders and laws.

I don't think things will playout like that at all, open up to Indian and Chinese markets for example demand that their citizens have freedom of movement in your country, so how exactly will you accomplish that and strict borders, without discriminate people based solely on the volume of their wallet?
 

gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
The EU can't give the UK a "good" trade deal outside of EEA. It's simply impossibly, because it would undermine its very existance. Even if the EU suffers from that (and it will, no doubt about that), it will have to deal with that. Which means the UK is fucked, if it really goes through with this "strategy", because it obviously will be hurt much worse.
Of course, May and her advisers know that perfectly well, so I'd argue that this is just pandering to her base and when things don't work out (as to be expected), she'll blame the EU for acting irresponsibly. It's indeed a game she is playing. Unfortunately with the lives of people in the UK and the EU.

Yeah, you could see it already in this speech.

If the EU doesn't do this/that/the-other, look at all the damage they'll do to themselves as well as us.

She's trying to shift the burden of responsibility onto the EU, ignoring that the UK has brought this entirely on itself in the first place. The EU did not want any of this.
 

Tak3n

Banned
The EU can't give the UK a "good" trade deal outside of EEA. It's simply impossibly, because it would undermine its very existance. Even if the EU suffers from that (and it will, no doubt about that), it will have to deal with that. Which means the UK is fucked, if it really goes through with this "strategy", because it obviously will be hurt much worse.
Of course, May and her advisers know that perfectly well, so I'd argue that this is just pandering to her base and when things don't work out (as to be expected), she'll blame the EU for acting irresponsibly. It's indeed a game she is playing. Unfortunately with the lives of people in the UK and the EU.

agree with that.... this is the opening negotiation to me, with one caveat, I don't think she will move on immigration control
 
Because she knows parliament has no chance but to agree with it unless they want WTO rules.

With that move she basically took parliament out of the equation. Because falling of a cliff is still better than nuking yourself.
Theresa will get what she wants either way. She said no deal is better than a bad deal.
 

Hazzuh

Member
May: We want tariff free trade with the EU and a customs agreement.
EU: You're not getting that without staying in the single market and accepting the Four Freedoms.
May: Well we don't want that!
EU: Then there's nothing more to be said.
May: ...We want tariff free trade with the EU and a customs agreement.

Huh? Pretty clear from the speech that she wants a Canada style trade agreement. You can think that's the wrong approach (I do) but it's not an unreasonable thing to try to negotiate with the EU.
 

Timbuktu

Member
On the other hand, the smug xenophobia and racism that accompanied the campaign and result mean I won't feel guilty for enjoying the schadenfreude that will follow a hard Brexit.

It's not like they would wise up to the fact that it's their fault though, it'll just be more blaming on others so I think there is any satisfaction in schadenfreude at all. Just suffering.
 

jelly

Member
I don't think things will playout like that at all, open up to Indian and Chinese markets for example demand that their citizens have freedom of movement in your country, so how exactly will you accomplish that and strict borders, without discriminate people based solely on the volume of their wallet?

Yeah, India for example have already said they won't budge on free movement.
 

-Plasma Reus-

Service guarantees member status
I haven't even thought of the extra costs this negotiation is adding to both UK taxpayers and EU taxpayers (of which Brits are both members of).
 

mnz

Unconfirmed Member
I don't think things will playout like that at all, open up to Indian and Chinese markets for example demand that their citizens have freedom of movement in your country, so how exactly will you accomplish that and strict borders, without discriminate people based solely on the volume of their wallet?
Expanding trade with the rest of the world also just means going against China, Korea, Japan, Germany etc, etc, it's a dog eat dog world. It's not like the world is waiting for more competition.

I haven't even thought of the extra costs this negotiation is adding to both UK taxpayers and EU taxpayers (of which Brits are both members of).
A year ago the UK didn't even have any trade negotiators. I wonder how it's looking now.
 
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