D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
There's a lot of tension between the PQ and the bloc, with PKP recently saying (then retracting almost immediately) that the Bloc is "useless".
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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There's a lot of tension between the PQ and the bloc, with PKP recently saying (then retracting almost immediately) that the Bloc is "useless".
It gives them a kind of soft power, sure. That is not the same as a voice in government, though.
LMAO! This is perfect. Maybe the CPC won't actually get a minority this time.Couple days old but:
"You can see the look of rejection, of defeat on the faces of the [Harper]campaign workers. They're talking about jobs that they're going to have to find after the election in the private sector because they know there will be no jobs for them. And they're also having to contend with Stephen Harper, who I'm told is in a very dark mood lately. The last two days he's been snapping at workers and they say it's because the thought of losing to Justin Trudeau is like a nightmare to him. And outside the campaign you're hearing a lot of Conservatives saying that he should not have run this time, that he let his ego get in the way like so many leaders before him."
http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=722213&playlistId=1.2606864&binId=1 [starts at 4:15]
gutter_trash
Banned
That comment is old, when he was new to the PQ not yet leader.
PKP retracted that and went bike riding with Duceppe to show his full support for the Bloc this summer.
Journal de Montreal has tripled their news coverage on Duceppe than any other leader.
The PQ machine is fully supporting the Bloc locally.
PKP has increased campaigning on behalf of the Bloc
PumpkinSpice
Banned
How much voice do backbenchers in the majority party have then? Look at Harper's backbenchers -- how many of them want to make abortions and gay marriage illegal? A shockingly large amount. Their voices don't get heard, they just vote with their party because of the whip.
Parliamentarians have important jobs aside from voting on confidence measures.
Simon Belmont
Banned
There's no hard and fast measure of that. It's going to depend on the PM
matthewwhatever
Member
On the opposing side, though, it's not like the NDP has a much better presence either -- the vast majority of their electoral district associations have less than $5k in the bank, and a significant number have nothing at all. They're heavily relying on their voters being motivated to go vote, and even if that worked last time, relying on it twice -- especially in a province known for huge swings to and away from various parties -- seems like they're playing with fire. It may well work (it's not like the Bloc was well-funded or well-organized during its time as a force in federal politics previously), but it means that most of their Quebec seats are a lot less secure than seats with similar margins elsewhere would be.
This is why I'm skeptical of the Bloc only getting a handful of seats. If a significant chunk of Quebec media is backing them, that magnifies their message far beyond what their bought media gets them. I hope I'm wrong in my prediction, but I think they could finish with anywhere from 0 seats to 30-40 of them.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
You're an ignorant anglo who hates separatists, and I'm an out-of-his-mind separatist who hates stability and security and call for the crumbling of the nation. "Deux solitudes" indeed!
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
They don't have a huge support from medias. La Presse is behind the Liberals, Quebec radios are behind Conservatives, and Radio-Canada talks more about the "big 3" in general. I guess TVA and Journal de Mtl/Qc must mostly be being the Bloc (but I'm not sure; I avoid those like the plague).
EDIT: Woops, double-post. Anarchy!
matthewwhatever
Member
Yeesh, we let you Quebeckers post on here, and all of a sudden it's crazy posts all over the place.
Aren't TVA & Journal the most widely-consumed media in the province, though?
The bloc can get a significant chunk of the Quebec media backing them, but if no one cares about or doesn't like them this media support won't really help them. Look at the 2015 Alberta election. The PC's had a lot of the major newspapers and media support them, but it did not really help them and hurt them in some cases.You can;t just have a bunch of the media supporting them. They have to be able to get people to vote for them.
They been quite mum on the issue. My guess is that speaking well of 'bureaucrats' isn't necessarily a winning issue (outside of Ottawa).
My best advice is to look more at the local candidates and their platforms, the candidates in Ottawa will speak more openly about their plans for public servants.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Mulcair playing defense in NS today. Looking at recent projections they're at risk of losing Halifax and Dartmouth, which is kinda crazy considering how popular Megan Leslie and Robert Chisholm are.
I'd bet pot legalization is a big factor.
I'd bet pot legalization is a big factor.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
Yeah, I think they are. From what I could tell, they're more interested in populist "scandals" like the niqab than actually talking about politics. So I guess these days they're giving a boost to the bloc, but also the conservatives.
EDIT: About that "crumbling" thing, it was a tongue-in-cheek joke about this super-hypothetical scenario where the "Ontarian Block" would exist. I didn't think people would take it at face value and accuse me of dreaming of anarchy and desolation in Canada, but I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Heh.
I'd vote for this.
CreeperBlocks
Banned
Couple days old but:
"You can see the look of rejection, of defeat on the faces of the [Harper]campaign workers. They're talking about jobs that they're going to have to find after the election in the private sector because they know there will be no jobs for them. And they're also having to contend with Stephen Harper, who I'm told is in a very dark mood lately. The last two days he's been snapping at workers and they say it's because the thought of losing to Justin Trudeau is like a nightmare to him. And outside the campaign you're hearing a lot of Conservatives saying that he should not have run this time, that he let his ego get in the way like so many leaders before him."
http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=722213&playlistId=1.2606864&binId=1 [starts at 4:15]
This going to be like Simba taking back Pride Rock from Scar.
pr0cs
Member
Don't recall that at all, it was pretty clear early that there was going to be a change in government, if anything most media were happy to cover the PCs explosion... Similar to this federal election. Media are most interested in covering the potential change of ruling power. The media covers what the majority of the population wants to hear.
The Senate *is* another layer of politics it's just either a useless one or a roadblock to Parliament. Not a good thing either way. It's also got problems whether it's appointed or elected.
The GG is a figurehead.
The courts only get involved if absolutely necessary and the notwithstanding clause can shut them down too.
So I don't see where these mechanisms are that keep the PM from acting like a dictator. I mean they're 'there' but they're not exactly very effective.
matthewwhatever
Member
True, but as I said, it works each way. Depending on the poll, you have up to four competitive parties in most ridings. I don't think having the media in the tank for one of the parties hurts that party.
To quote gaboumafou:
If they were going NDP in the last election -- and I think a lot of them were, if I'm not mistaken -- I don't think it helps the NDP vote in the province.
I think Leslie pulls it out, since that riding has been NDP for so long. The rest of the province (apart from Stoffer's riding) is probably going Liberal, though.
I just saw that Mulcair is heading back to Quebec today. I wonder if he leaves the province again between now and Monday? 308.com has turned his seat to a toss-up!
Simon Belmont
Banned
All the courts need to get involved is for somebody to sue, and somebody will. Arguing in front of the Supreme Court is a huuuuge feather in the cap of any lawyer, so nobody is going to pass up an opportunity to do so.
The notwithstanding clause is enacted by parliament and must be voted on every five years. It also only applies to certain sections of the Charter. If it's not over a massively popular issue, the electorate will be severely put off by it. There's a reason no federal government has used it.
Azih majority governments are the norm in Canada and we haven't turned into a banana republic yet.
The notwithstanding clause is enacted by parliament and must be voted on every five years. It also only applies to certain sections of the Charter. If it's not over a massively popular issue, the electorate will be severely put off by it. There's a reason no federal government has used it.
Azih majority governments are the norm in Canada and we haven't turned into a banana republic yet.
The electorate wasn't severely put off by Harper proruging Parliament to avoid a confidence vote. And Harper has calculated multiple times that publicly arguing with and denigrating the Court is good for his support. And like I said the courts only get involved if the government starts ignoring laws. It's a very limited check on the power of the PM.
Simon Belmont
Banned
That's on the electorate. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.
I don't disagree with that. But the point we're discussing here is the checks and balances on the PM's powers. And practically speaking there isn't very much there at all if the PM's party wins a majority. You seem to be arguing the opposite.
Simon Belmont
Banned
I am. Just because the electorate endorses somebody it does not make it an illegitimate check on their power. PMs are beholden to the party, which is also a check on their power. The Supreme Court is also a check on the PMs power. Handwaiving them away doesn't help your point.
Edit: the Charter is the most obvious check on a PM, and I left it out for some reason.
I can't understand how anyone could look at how the Harper government rammed through its agenda in massive, hurried omnibus bills utterly ignoring all criticism and think "yep our system is fine."
The Supreme Court is a good check on the PM's power, but it's clear that we need more than that.
The Supreme Court is a good check on the PM's power, but it's clear that we need more than that.
matthewwhatever
Member
Really interesting column from Paul Wells about the last days of the Conservative campaign, and how Harper's dislike of the Trudeau family has shaped it:
Simon Belmont
Banned
They're not getting a another mandate, so it seems to have worked just fine to me.
So now even Harper is standing fully behind that "brothels and injection sites" nonsense:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...-brothels-in-our-communities/article26807446/
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...-brothels-in-our-communities/article26807446/
Look's like they've broken through the bottom of the barrel, and are now digging into the ground.
I'm not handwaving anything away.
1. The electorate
This is only kind of vaguely true in our electoral system. For example 60% of voters in 2011 DIDN'T VOTE FOR CPC candidates. And yet Harper's had full majority power for the last four years. That doesn't make any sense. How much influence does an electorate have on parliament with this kind of bizarre and bullshit electoral math? Only of a very volatile and unpredictable sort. If we had some form of proportional system then I'd accept this but as is I can't in good faith do so.
The basic logic of electoral democracy is that "In a democratic government, the right of decision belongs to the majority, but the right of representation belongs to all."
Our current system and similar disproportional systems fail ON BOTH of these incredibly basic principles. The right of decision has not belonged to the majority for the past four years and everybody who has cast a wasted vote As 49.6% of us, or nearly 7.3 million, did in 2011 do not have representation.
2. The Courts/Charter
I've talked about this already. It's a very limited check that only comes into play if the government starts breaking the law.
3. The Senate
Lol. What's the Senate done to check Harper for the past decade? I'm not talking about theory here. I'm talking about practical reality.
4. The party itself
We live in a media environment and a world in which we, as an electorate, make our decision on who to vote for based on party and party leader, not on local candidates. Whether this is a 'good' or 'bad' thing is irrelevant. It's just a fact of life and it's not changing anytime soon. In this sort of an environment it's the party and the party leader that has by far the most impact on whether a local candidate gets elected or not. All the power lies in the hands of the party leader and his or her inner circle.
Maybe in the past the backbenchers and cabinet members wielded a lot of influence over their party leader. But that isn't true anymore because the electorate doesn't vote for them; it votes for the party brand and the party leader. The centralization of power that results from this is very obvious from Pierre Trudeau onwards and has reached comical proportions with Harper. Even if the next government dials it back the underlying dynamic won't change. A party's fortune turns on its leader and inner circle and so the leader and the inner circle are the ones with the authority. A party can and will turf an unpopular leader and replace him or her but barring that nuclear option they fall in line as their own re-election depends on their 'strong' leader doing well. This is exaggerated with the ruling party and its leader PM.
5. Other parties
Yes, in a minority/coalition situation. Not in a majority situation. Like in the fake majority one that we've been living under for the past four years.
Just compare what Harper can do with what Obama can do Simon. The difference in power is staggering.
It's one of the reasons that I push so hard for PR. The only effective and constant check on a governing party are the other parties when the governing party is in a non majority situation. If a party actually gets more than 50% of the votes then sure they've earned the kind of power that our system gives them. But otherwise? It's not earned but they get it.
TheRealTalker
Banned
LMAO
Giving everyone a more urban makeover
Some don't really match though and Trudeau now looks waaaaay older
Giving everyone a more urban makeover
Gilles Duceppe took the opportunity to relax in kind.
Stephen Harper joined a group of garage rock.
Elizabeth May adopts an urban style.
Justin Trudeau lets out his "bad boy" inside.
Tom Mulcair also.
Some don't really match though and Trudeau now looks waaaaay older
Mulcair is going to be at a rally in Edmonton on .. Sunday? I think. Notley is apparently going to show up too.
massivekettle
Member
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ying-up-for-insurance-ahead-of-tight-election
RIP loonie on Oct. 19....
RIP loonie on Oct. 19....
Simon Belmont
Banned
Azih all the sudden I'm watching three kids, then when I'm done that it's band practice an hour out of town. I probably won't be able to mount a serious reply to that until after nine or ten.
Ksharp - it's doing so well at the moment, too. Totally the Liberals fault.
Ksharp - it's doing so well at the moment, too. Totally the Liberals fault.
TheRealTalker
Banned
The Loonie would have to actually be worth something significant for it to be a RIP loonie statement
matthewwhatever
Member
Enh, it's usually not worth dignifying it with a response. This is pretty much on par with Harper claiming that the Liberals were okay with child pornography. Losing campaigns do losing things.
And yet, from the same publication: For Canada Investors, Liberals Prove Better Bet Than Tories
gutter_trash
Banned
Didn't it tank under Harper's watch, like earlier this year?
matthewwhatever
Member
Liberals getting serious about winning the senior vote with a video featuring Hazel McCallion!
TheRealTalker
Banned
Trudeau is a Sorcerer?
Dang what is wrong with the Left... Vampires and Sorcerers all over the place
I didn't think it was possible to make Harper look more terrifying.
Buba Big Guns
Banned
Loonie is already at the bottom of the sewer after 10 years of Harper. I dont understand how you can blame opposition parties when the economy became shit under the CPC watch.
gutter_trash
Banned
Kelly Mcperland is mad because he is a boy with a girl's name
Trudeau is a Sorcerer?
Dang what is wrong with the Left... Vampires and Sorcerers all over the place
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Just waiting for them to use the words "hidden agenda."
Invisible bond vigilantes cause libruls... OK.
If I recall it was 5 or more(may be wrong about this)newspapers supporting them while none of the media were supporting the NDP despite the NDP being in the lead. My point still stands.The bloc is going to have to make people more interested in them to get a lot more seats in Quebec anyway.
UberTag
Member
It's all about that fear campaign against anyone who dares to vote against Harper.
Thing is... even though we can largely thank Harper for it, the loonie tanking even further is the one tangible truth in the mountain of nonsense and bullshit they're currently spewing.
Frankly, I'll take the short-term hit to our dollar to get rid of him and his poison.
Wow.Just wow. I seriously don't know what to say about this anymore. Even the PC's in Alberta when they were losing did not stoop this low(besides that one sexist comment during a debate).
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