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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
- Start date
- Status
Perfect Blue
Banned
A Jays win would wrap up a day of good news very well.
Couple days old but:
"You can see the look of rejection, of defeat on the faces of the [Harper]campaign workers. They're talking about jobs that they're going to have to find after the election in the private sector because they know there will be no jobs for them. And they're also having to contend with Stephen Harper, who I'm told is in a very dark mood lately. The last two days he's been snapping at workers and they say it's because the thought of losing to Justin Trudeau is like a nightmare to him. And outside the campaign you're hearing a lot of Conservatives saying that he should not have run this time, that he let his ego get in the way like so many leaders before him."
http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=722213&playlistId=1.2606864&binId=1 [starts at 4:15]
I find it interesting how harper almost killed off the Liberals and revived them all in the span of 9 years. The Liberals would have not been as strong of a party right now if the CPC and harper weren't so terrible. It will be kinda funny to watch Harper lose to a son of a former PM and one he hated also on election night if it happens.
A liberal majority wouldn't make me happy. Minority government, I can live with. Shame NDP lost all its steam in the final weeks.
The ndp has mostly stabilized now. A majority is not guaranteed yet for the Liberals.
matthewwhatever
Member
It feels like the NDP decided on their campaign strategy in July, and then haven't adjusted it at all since then. On one level, that's not a horrible plan -- it's easy to get caught up in the day-to-day of a campaign and make horrible decisions -- but at the same time, it means they're rolling out ads and talking points that make zero sense.
Okay, after looking at every riding in the country, my prediction:
Liberals 129
Conservatives 128
NDP 56
Bloc 19
Green 3
That's based, obviously, on a resurgent Bloc, but I have no idea whether they have any kind of GOTV operation in place...though at the same time, the NDP doesn't have one in much of Quebec either, so it's basically a total crapshoot there. Quebec has a crazy number of four-way races that could break for any of the parties based on all kinds of factors, but I'm guessing -- based on riding histories, local candidates, and a bit of polling -- it will go LPC 24/NDP 22/BQ 19/CPC 13. A few points here and there, though, could dramatically shift things around.
I'd love for it to be a Liberal majority, but I don't see how it happens.
IISANDERII
Member
Please tear it down if you do see it. It's embarrassing for every last living being in Canada.
I was flipping through radio stations in the car this morning when I came across the tail-end of a Conservative ad, with Harper speaking.
It was something like "...help me keep your taxes low. Let's talk again tomorrow."
LOL, no thanks.
So you're saying Conservatives are undead? Like Dracula?
It was something like "...help me keep your taxes low. Let's talk again tomorrow."
LOL, no thanks.
So you're saying Conservatives are undead? Like Dracula?
Not the worst possible outcome, since it still means the Liberals can govern with the support of only the NDP. I don't think the Bloc will do that well, though, and I also really hope they don't.
gutter_trash
Banned
Bloc won't break 7..they be lucky to get 5.
CitizenVectron
Member
If the Liberals are truly at 45% in Ontario and 48% in the 905, then they will most likely win more than 129 seats. But we don't know the exact support yet.
matthewwhatever
Member
There are just so many Quebec ridings that look like toss-ups. The NDP could win all of them, or they could get shut out entirely (which would be the nightmare scenario from a Liberal minority point of view as well). We don't have any way of knowing how solid the NDP vote is from last time -- a month ago, I'd have guessed they'd win all those seats (and a few more) without any difficulty. When the votes are splitting 30-30-30, or even 25-25-25-25, forecasting is totally guesswork.
The rest of the country is a lot easier to predict, I think. I have the Conservatives winning most of the BC interior, most of Alberta and Saskatchewan, and rural Ontario. I think the Liberals sweep most of Atlantic Canada, most of Montreal and the Eastern townships, a majority of Ontario, and scattered seats throughout the west.
killer rin
Member
Sadly the only way to get rid of the Bloc is through attrition. We need to work to get another party to fill the void which will slowly convert the separatists to federalists while we wait for the nonconvertible to die off. The NDP is doing good with trying to fill the void, but we now need a couple terms to convert them/wait for them to die off.
This will also speed up dramatically if Trudeau gets in there, because he would have a chance to replace his fathers "sour" legacy with his own
GuessMyUserName
Member
Caught this from my Albertan cousin's facebook feed
Gotta love the average HOCKEY-PLAYIN' KID
Gotta love the average HOCKEY-PLAYIN' KID
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
Why is it so important to you to see the Bloc die?
You seriously think think there's a independentist movement because of PET? And how long have federalists been saying the the "dangerous separatist movement" is about to die? 30-40 years?
Yeah. The bloc is too weak still. I don;t think a lot of Quebecers are still interested in them. About Quebec even with the way Quebec is heading this election I still think the NDP can get 35+ seats easily in the province. I think all their other opponents besides the Liberals are too weak to take many seats in that province. The conservatives will only get around 10 seats in that province, the liberals 20-25 most likely while the bloc get around 5.
I predict the bloc will end up like all the other separatist movements that have gone to parliament in the last century or so and they will die eventually.
gutter_trash
Banned
The Bloc's weakness is that its base is not energized, the base knows that souvernty cannot happen by electing Federal MPs,
and currently they don't have a solid concentration in any specific region.
,,,,,,
The Liberals in Quebec are heavily mashed together in the Greater Montreal area which generates lots of 514 seats with 1 on the South Shore, 3 in Laval.
they will pull 2 surprses in Gaspesie too.
The Concervatives in Quebec are heavily concentrated in Quebec City Region, Sagenay and the panhandle in Beauce reaching to Riviere du Loup.
The NDP is competitive in all regions of Quebec in 2 way, 3 way, 4 way fights.
They ABC sentiment helps the NDP more than the Bloc
The Bloc base is not energized
and currently they don't have a solid concentration in any specific region.
,,,,,,
The Liberals in Quebec are heavily mashed together in the Greater Montreal area which generates lots of 514 seats with 1 on the South Shore, 3 in Laval.
they will pull 2 surprses in Gaspesie too.
The Concervatives in Quebec are heavily concentrated in Quebec City Region, Sagenay and the panhandle in Beauce reaching to Riviere du Loup.
The NDP is competitive in all regions of Quebec in 2 way, 3 way, 4 way fights.
They ABC sentiment helps the NDP more than the Bloc
The Bloc base is not energized
Because it's a provincial-interest party running for national office? How is this not clear?
killer rin
Member
Don't put words in my mouth. The Nationalist movement has been going on way longer than PET. I mean it in the sense that if successful he would be able to get back the people who threw away the Liberals for the Bloc on their handling of the War Measures Act.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
I might be dumb but it really isn't to me.
I seriously doubt a lot of people base their political beliefs solely on this 45 years old event.
Simon Belmont
Banned
Huh? How is the Bloq not a regional party?
I don't have the knee jerk anti-separatist reaction many here do, so I just want them to die because when they do well they distort our legislature even worse than it already tends to be and I think the path to resolving the issues separatists have is including them in the process of governing. The Bloc can never be included in the process for reasons that became clear in 2008: A federal government propped up by a party whose only goal is separatism can't stand.
gutter_trash
Banned
How would you compare their support base today with 2007/2008?
What does you gutt tell you about now and then?
>Previous jobs: lobbyist
Yeah... Totally knowing what's best for the people....
If there was an "Ontario Party" running for federal office and they voted in a bloc, had no platform outside of their own province and consistently messed with the ability to form a stable government, Quebecois voters would be equally as infuriated.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
They had a huge drop, I won't deny it. But I think it's a little too soon for you to start celebrating!
Remember the NPD numbers a few elections ago? Things can change quickly in politics.
TAKE THAT, TRUDEAU
Isn't the main reason communism failed was because they were always coupled with right wing governments?
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
If ontarians somehow felt the federal system didn't serve them well and wanted to have a party to defend their interests, then more power to them.
lol right
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
Sorry if you can't conceive that some people might have a different political vision than you.
A liberal majority wouldn't make me happy. Minority government, I can live with. Shame NDP lost all its steam in the final weeks
I'm a big NDP supporter and still plan to vote for them, but I'm getting tired of their misleading campaign. They'll often say things that sound better than the reality, when they'd be better off just being upfront. I think Canadians would have responded well to a measured, straight up approach. Instead we have "$15 federal minimum wage" and "we're the closest because 2011".
I like Mulcair for being able to speak in a debate or interview and seem to know his stuff and speak from genuine experience (much more than Trudeau, who IMO seems to have a handful of talking points memorized so he can pull them out when prompted), but he needs better PR and the campaign needs a better message.
The NDP campaign made me roll my eyes several times, but ultimately I still want to see them govern. And all that said, I love that Mulcair stands his ground on unpopular opinions.
They had a huge drop, I won't deny it. But I think it's a little too soon for you to start celebrating!
Remember the NPD numbers a few elections ago? Things can change quickly in politics.
The problem is that they don't really have the resources to even take advantage of an increase in support right now. They have little to no GOTY mechanism. and other stuff that can help increase their vote.They can mostly only travel, air some ads on tv and etc with the resources they have right now.Also, there were reports like a month ago that they were't even attracting many people to their campaign events. This is probably true today still.
It's not that, it's that I seriously doubt how accepting you'd be of a party--especially an Ontario-based party--that was able to garner tons of support by promising to represent "their interests" while ignoring the rest of the country.
Hell, Ontario has the highest population of any of the provinces, so they could come out with a platform to divert all the funds of the federal coffers into the pockets of Ontarians and leave the rest of the country to starve, and because they vote in a bloc they'd win. Amazing!
GuessMyUserName
Member
Oh hey it seems I missed a York U party in this thread earlier - Computer Science here, yo
lol I wanna go Conservative poster hunting now. I've only seen anti-Harper stuff in the last week
lol I wanna go Conservative poster hunting now. I've only seen anti-Harper stuff in the last week
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
I agree they're in a difficult position right now. But I remember barely a month ago polls predicting they'd get 0 seats, and now they're at 5-10. Don't celebrate just yet.
First, it's not really running for national office, otherwise they'd present candidates in all 338 seats. The Bloc has neither the illusion nor the intent of ever forming government. They're just a group of people that want to represent the interests of the people that elect them, which just happens to be the very job description of an MP. I'm not sure how a Bloc MP is different from any other in this regard. They'll never have offices and ministries and that's why it works: MPs aren't elected to represent national interests, but only those of their constituents. Arguing against that reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the way Canadian democracy works.
Second, unless you want Quebec to leave Canada, you should love the Bloc. The great irony of this party is that by helping represent Quebec's provincial interests in the federal government, they're contributing to the status quo actually working, and actively hurting separatist sentiment.
gutter_trash
Banned
Wouldn't work in Ontario because Ontario is the power center, king maker, and core of the Federal establishment.
Maybe say, the Alberta Party or Reform Party would more closer to it
Just because they're not running 338 candidates doesn't mean they're not impacting national politics. They may be good for Quebec, but they're bad for Canadian democracy.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
I'm not sure if you're implying that the Bloc is "stealing" from other provinces and leaving them to starve, but I won't even go there.
In your hypothetical scenario, if multiple provinces need to have their own "bloc" to defend their interests, the canadian federation would start to crumble and, as an independentist, I'd welcome it.
With canadian democracy sometimes being bad for Quebec, that seems fair.
This is some seriously twisted logic here. The bloc forces Quebec's interests to be expressed outside the halls of power, since as you say it can never form government. In our system, as it exists right now, a minority party has effectively no voice in government whatsoever.
In your hypothetical scenario, if multiple provinces need to have their own "bloc" to defend their interests, the canadian federation would start to crumble and, as an independentist, I'd welcome it.
Well there you go. You can't understand why other people dislike the Bloc because you don't understand that other people want a secure and well-governed country and you don't. As long as you realize that, there's no point in trying to assume that the rest of the country is somehow out of line when you're actively calling for the crumbling of the nation.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
I want a dangerous and poorly-governed country. You got me there!
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Sure they do. They can shape laws in committees, they can hold the government to account when something stupid comes up, they can raise their own bills and have them pass and become the law of the land.
Opposition parties are a very important part of our parliament, even in a majority situation.
You literally just said that the crumbling of Canada's government would be good for you. You're out of your mind.
Simon Belmont
Banned
That's not really what he said though.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
gaboumafou said:
I think it would be pretty difficult to sustain that a "crumbling" country would be well-governed or safe??
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
I was talking about the confederation, as in provinces assuming more powers and taking more decisions. But if you want to frame it as if I was calling for anarchy and violence in the streets of Canada to feel good about hating those damn separatists, go ahead. This discussion is ridiculous.
gutter_trash
Banned
The Bloc to me has regressed to be just a mouth piece for the PQ on the Federal scene.
Duceppe is a left wing union guy taking marching orders from a Right wing union busting PKP.
When the PQ says jump, the Bloc says how high.
Even if the PQ is not in power
Duceppe is a left wing union guy taking marching orders from a Right wing union busting PKP.
When the PQ says jump, the Bloc says how high.
Even if the PQ is not in power
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