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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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S

Stet

Banned
matthewwhatever said:
Both Leger and Ekos have published their breakdowns. That Ekos one is really weird...Conservatives with a huge lead among women? The Liberals almost in 4th place in Quebec? The NDP falling to third place at the same time as they shoot up 10 points in the "Predicted Election Outcome" poll? The Greens polling almost 3 points higher there than anywhere else? I don't want to discount it just because I don't like what the overall picture is showing, but the whole thing is really out-of-whack with what every single other poll is showing.
Click to expand...

The Ekos poll also looks to indicate that a Trudeau-led coalition is incredibly popular.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
that Leger poll's column on Rest Of Canada (without Quebec) Liberals and Conservative near tied while the NDP is 10 points behind.

as it stands, it's all on Ontario

Ekos spikes Conservatives up
 
S

SRG01

Member
Conservatives at 39% in Ontario makes no sense. There hasn't been any noticeable groundswell in Conservative support *anywhere* nor has there been any reporting on it...
 
M

mo60

Member
matthewwhatever said:
You mean Ekos? We haven't seen a national-level poll from Mainstreet in weeks.

While I still don't trust Forum at all, those are some interesting results -- the Liberals tied for first with the Conservatives, with the NDP down 12 points in three weeks? Not only that, this is a pretty drastic shift from anything we've seen so far:


I mean, I'd love it to be the case, but considering that Forum wasn't even measuring people's expectations of a Liberal victory at the beginning of the race, that seems like a pretty massive shift (at least for their poll).
Click to expand...

Yes. I meant Ekos. I don't trust forum at all. Their poll numbers for the NDP were way to high a few weeks ago. The NDP is most likely sitting around the 29%-31% range overall right now in the polls which nets them 100+ seats at least right now because of Quebec and maybe BC. The NDP is not doomed and they seem to be doing decent right now still. The race seems to have shifted for the Liberals in the last month or so and it will be interesting to see if they get out of third place or even form the government.Also it's interesting to see that conservative supporters hate the prospect of a minority government more than the other two opposition parties supporters , but it's not rally shocking also.
 
M

mo60

Member
Silexx said:
Some people really think that Harper is the equivalent to Bush for some reason.
Click to expand...

Bush is obviously worse than Harper, but I don't like Harper for multiple reason.I really do want a different government or a significantly weaker conservative government so he can't pull some of the stuff he did under his majority again.
 
M

mo60

Member
pr0cs said:
Comments like this make me hope that cons win again, just to see the chaos ensue on this forum
Click to expand...

Add in the liberals losing to the NDP yet again(which is still likely because of Quebec) and even more chaos will ensue on the forums.Also, so many hardcore ABC voters epsecially the ones that post on certain site's comment section will be angry if the conservatives won.
 
L

lacinius

Member
Savitar said:
Can only hope my fellow Canadians do the right thing. Can they really be so stupid to vote for the PC's again.
Click to expand...


Canadians don't have to be that stupid, and instead only about 39% of those that can be bothered to show up to vote on Oct. 19 is all it will potentially take. What Canada needs is a far greater turnout than the 61.1% that bothered to vote in 2011, but of course institutions like Elections Canada are no longer allowed to encourage Canadians to get out and vote... because according to Harper, that would just not be Fair.
 
A

Apathy

Member
gutter_trash said:
Mulcair was scum for bringing up Pierre Trudeau's use of the War Measures Act tonight, it was a calculated move to pander to the most nationalistic of voters in Quebec, and very odd move since Qc MNA Pierre Laporte was killed at the hand of the FLQ.

I liked Jack Layoton, i like Jack allot but Mulcair is slimey and has not tact.

Brining up RIP Pierre Trudeau and and slamming Justin's father in front of him to pander to Nationalists was a really low blow.

So low that I wish the NDP never form Government even if it means Harper getting re-elected.

Haper trashes Pierre Trudeau on his energy policy, okay, Harper I get it, Western Alienation blablal

but Thomas Mulcair, a former Quebec Liberal MNA trashing Pierre Trudeau's use of the War Measure's Act when then Quebec Liberal MNA Pierre Laporte was kidnapped by the FLQ, then later killed by the FLQ.... is a real Frank Underwood low blow by Mulcair.

Discusting.
Click to expand...

Mulcair isn't the nice guy that Layton was and no amount of trying to associate himself with Layton's image will change that. Wasn't there a big hoopla after Jack's can when they are looking for a new leader and some of the in fighting within the ndp that was in the news. Bringing up Trudeau just to try and provoke the nationalist crowd is despicable. Why try to judge the son by the sins of the father in a completely different time?
 
W

Walpurgis

Banned
mo60 said:
Add in the liberals losing to the NDP yet again(which is still likely because of Quebec) and even more chaos will ensue on the forums.
Click to expand...

The only ones that are hardcore Liberal are gutter and matthew. If NDP beats the Liberals, I think this thread will be fine. :p
 
A

Azih

Member
A coalition led by Muclair that gets enough Liberals (and May+friend(friends?)) onside to get PR implemented would be ideal. NDP majority has a good chance of tempting the NDP to try and become the next 'natural governing party' but with other parties keeping them honest may force them to actually implement this policy which, seriously guys, is kinda important.

Plus with backbenchers actually being important in a minority/coalition situation. You best believe Fair Vote is going to be going after rank and file Liberals to support PR in parliament even more than we're doing in the campaign. Seriously. Me on this forum is but a slight taste of what we'll do to Liberal MPs if and when it comes to a vote on the floor.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Apathy said:
Mulcair isn't the nice guy that Layton was and no amount of trying to associate himself with Layton's image will change that. Wasn't there a big hoopla after Jack's can when they are looking for a new leader and some of the in fighting within the ndp that was in the news. Bringing up Trudeau just to try and provoke the nationalist crowd is despicable. Why try to judge the son by the sins of the father in a completely different time?
Click to expand...

especially since Justin wasn't even born yet
 
P

Pedrito

Member
Silexx said:
Some people really think that Harper is the equivalent to Bush for some reason.
Click to expand...

Is he not? He was in favor of the war in Iraq.
He's just as hawkish except he's all bark and no bite because the canadian forces can't bite anything.
His way of governing on fear and division is from the same playbook.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Walpurgis said:
The only ones that are hardcore Liberal are gutter and matthew. If NDP beats the Liberals, I think this thread will be fine. :p
Click to expand...

and even then, matthew seems dramatically less unhinged (and is very much more capable of having an argument that doesn't rely on multiple fallacies and appeals to emotion)
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
eBay Huckster said:
and even then, matthew seems dramatically less unhinged (and is very much more capable of having an argument that doesn't rely on multiple fallacies and appeals to emotion)
Click to expand...

SWEET.

EDIT: And I'll add that I don't think I've ever once written my predictions for this election, apart from writing a few pages ago that I agreed with Tiktaalik that I'm concerned we'll get another Conservative government. As I'm pretty sure I've said multiple times, it's a very, very long campaign, and recent elections at both the federal and provincial levels should show the danger of thinking that just because polls show something a few weeks before election day, it doesn't mean that's going to hold. I mean, I'm obviously hoping for a Liberal win, but I'm also going to be realistic and temper my expectations.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
I'm fine with either as long as it's a minority, more or less for the same reason as Azih. I'd prefer the NDP lead that coalition because I think fresh to limited power they're more likely to do the right thing with PR, but the element of the Liberal caucus that's pro-PR + a strong NDP all in should do the right thing too.
 
M

mo60

Member
matthewwhatever said:
SWEET.

EDIT: And I'll add that I don't think I've ever once written my predictions for this election, apart from writing a few pages ago that I agreed with Tiktaalik that I'm concerned we'll get another Conservative government. As I'm pretty sure I've said multiple times, it's a very, very long campaign, and recent elections at both the federal and provincial levels should show the danger of thinking that just because polls show something a few weeks before election day, it doesn't mean that's going to hold. I mean, I'm obviously hoping for a Liberal win, but I'm also going to be realistic and temper my expectations.
Click to expand...

At this point I don't think the Liberals are going to win unless conservative support collapses in their strongholds(AB,Ontario to a lesser extent, SK/MB and etc) especially in rural ridings in these areas. They can't just rely on Ontario and Atlantic Canada at this point and BC and Quebec to a lesser extent to win. The same appeals to the NDP. It looks like it is slowly becoming a close race for second.I still don't expect a conservative majority because both the Liberals and NDP are strong so far this election.
 
M

mo60

Member
T

thelatestmodel

Junior, please.
TheGreatPotato said:
Looks like the Conservatives will win one of Regina's new urban ridings because the Liberals have drawn enough support from the NDP to split the vote: http://www.leaderpost.com/story_print.html?id=11390257&sponsor=

The Conservatives are down 10 points since last election in the area, but the Liberals have jumped so much that the NDP has dropped, and the CPC is still in 1st place by 6%. It's really unfortunate.
Click to expand...

It kills me that this is how it works. Most people are sick of Harper and want a left / center left government, but the Cons are in with a real shot because there just happen to be two parties to split the opposition. Fucking annoying as hell.
 
M

mo60

Member
thelatestmodel said:
It kills me that this is how it works. Most people are sick of Harper and want a left / center left government, but the Cons are in with a real shot because there just happen to be two parties to split the opposition. Fucking annoying as hell.
Click to expand...

At least the good thing is that both parties are strong enough this time to prevent the conservatives from getting better than a minority unlike last election.
 
C

CitizenVectron

Member
There is a very real pathway for Harper to try and game our system to remain in power, even if the other parties have more seats:

- He wins election with plurality, but not majority
- Other parties say they will bring his government down, and form coalition/accord to govern
- Harper goes to Governor General and asks for Parliament to be prorogued until the spring (legally he only gives up his job when he is defeated in the House).
- Does Throne Speech, but refuses to allow Parliament to vote on it (which would break tradition, but is allowed)
- Doesn't allow confidence votes until budget in Apr/May
- Uses this entire time period with a massive PR blitz to attack the Liberal-NDP "coalition of losers" idea as illegitimate and illegal (even though it's legal and common in other democracies, and has even happened in Canadian provincial politics)
- If public polls show that people are then against the idea of a coalition, he will ask the GG for a new election instead of allowing them to take power
- Conservatives still have large warchest to spend, while Liberals and NDP have no money left after this election
- Conservatives win majority

The reason it is likely is because:

- In 2008 the Liberals and NDP formed a coalition to do just this and bring him down, but he got the GG to prorogue Parliament and he did the PR blitz. When Parliament returned months later, the parties backed down because of the public backlash
- He is already using phrases like "the people elect a government, Parliament doesn't." This is factual incorrect as Parliament actually does elect the government, not the people. The people simply elected the Parliament.

If he does though, it will be a huge abuse of power, and hopefully the GG would not go along with it. Constitutional scholars chided the last GG for allowing his move in 2008.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
TheGreatPotato said:
The reason it is likely is because:

- In 2008 the Liberals and NDP formed a coalition to do just this and bring him down, but he got the GG to prorogue Parliament and he did the PR blitz. When Parliament returned months later, the parties backed down because of the public backlash.
Click to expand...

to be fair, this was also due to the Bloc's role as the balance of power in that coalition
 
C

CitizenVectron

Member
gutter_trash said:
Nanos seems odd doing dailies plus all their polls look the same
Click to expand...

It's not odd to do daily polls, it happens all the time in the US. What sucks about Nanos is their sample sizes at the regional level.

And the reason their polls look the same is because there haven't been any large shifts outside of a few outliers. Nanos seems to be reflecting the polling consensus, that there is a 3-way statistical tie.
 
S

Silexx

Member
TheGreatPotato said:
There is a very real pathway for Harper to try and game our system to remain in power, even if the other parties have more seats:

- He wins election with plurality, but not majority
- Other parties say they will bring his government down, and form coalition/accord to govern
- Harper goes to Governor General and asks for Parliament to be prorogued until the spring (legally he only gives up his job when he is defeated in the House).
- Does Throne Speech, but refuses to allow Parliament to vote on it (which would break tradition, but is allowed)
- Doesn't allow confidence votes until budget in Apr/May
- Uses this entire time period with a massive PR blitz to attack the Liberal-NDP "coalition of losers" idea as illegitimate and illegal (even though it's legal and common in other democracies, and has even happened in Canadian provincial politics)
- If public polls show that people are then against the idea of a coalition, he will ask the GG for a new election instead of allowing them to take power
- Conservatives still have large warchest to spend, while Liberals and NDP have no money left after this election
- Conservatives win majority

The reason it is likely is because:

- In 2008 the Liberals and NDP formed a coalition to do just this and bring him down, but he got the GG to prorogue Parliament and he did the PR blitz. When Parliament returned months later, the parties backed down because of the public backlash
- He is already using phrases like "the people elect a government, Parliament doesn't." This is factual incorrect as Parliament actually does elect the government, not the people. The people simply elected the Parliament.

If he does though, it will be a huge abuse of power, and hopefully the GG would not go along with it. Constitutional scholars chided the last GG for allowing his move in 2008.
Click to expand...

All signs and information from insiders indicate that anything less than a majority and Harper will step down.
 
M

mo60

Member
TheGreatPotato said:
There is a very real pathway for Harper to try and game our system to remain in power, even if the other parties have more seats:

- He wins election with plurality, but not majority
- Other parties say they will bring his government down, and form coalition/accord to govern
- Harper goes to Governor General and asks for Parliament to be prorogued until the spring (legally he only gives up his job when he is defeated in the House).
- Does Throne Speech, but refuses to allow Parliament to vote on it (which would break tradition, but is allowed)
- Doesn't allow confidence votes until budget in Apr/May
- Uses this entire time period with a massive PR blitz to attack the Liberal-NDP "coalition of losers" idea as illegitimate and illegal (even though it's legal and common in other democracies, and has even happened in Canadian provincial politics)
- If public polls show that people are then against the idea of a coalition, he will ask the GG for a new election instead of allowing them to take power
- Conservatives still have large warchest to spend, while Liberals and NDP have no money left after this election
- Conservatives win majority

The reason it is likely is because:

- In 2008 the Liberals and NDP formed a coalition to do just this and bring him down, but he got the GG to prorogue Parliament and he did the PR blitz. When Parliament returned months later, the parties backed down because of the public backlash
- He is already using phrases like "the people elect a government, Parliament doesn't." This is factual incorrect as Parliament actually does elect the government, not the people. The people simply elected the Parliament.

If he does though, it will be a huge abuse of power, and hopefully the GG would not go along with it. Constitutional scholars chided the last GG for allowing his move in 2008.
Click to expand...

Harper said he won't pull all the stuff you described above again in that CBC interview that aired a couple of weeks ago.
 
C

CitizenVectron

Member
I don't think he'll do it if the results end up being 120, 109, 108, 1, but it's possible he would consider such a move if the CPC ended up only a few seats short, and the other parties were in the 80-seat range.
 
M

mo60

Member
TheRealTalker said:
some reporters need to pressure the NDP and Liberals to insure that a coalition is on the table
Click to expand...

If you are talking abut an actual coalition they don't want one and if there was a whiff of a coalition in the air harper would try to use the coalition issue again to keep his majority
 
C

CitizenVectron

Member
Harper just announced a re-elected CPC government would outlaw tax increases for 4 years. This brings up interesting questions:

- If it's only for 4 years and they will be in power anyway, why the law? Why not just don't raise taxes? Or do they not trust themselves?
- If it's such a big deal, why not ban them forever?

Either way the law has no effect as a successive government can simply override it with a new law that raises taxes and voids the old one. It's plain ideological crud. And does it apply to all federal taxes such as tariffs? Because some embargoes raise those. Would it prevent him from raising embargoes on Iran or N. Korea?
 
K

killer rin

Member
TheGreatPotato said:
Harper just announced a re-elected CPC government would outlaw tax increases for 4 years. This brings up interesting questions:

- If it's only for 4 years and they will be in power anyway, why the law? Why not just don't raise taxes? Or do they not trust themselves?
- If it's such a big deal, why not ban them forever?

Either way the law has no effect as a successive government can simply override it with a new law that raises taxes and voids the old one. It's plain ideological crud. And does it apply to all federal taxes such as tariffs? Because some embargoes raise those. Would it prevent him from raising embargoes on Iran or N. Korea?
Click to expand...

Why doesn't the media call him out on this being completely non-binding and worthless to pursue unless it was written into the constitution -.-
 
M

Morrigan Stark

Arrogant Smirk
gutter_trash said:
especially since Justin wasn't even born yet
Click to expand...
I think it's amusing that you seem more offended at this line than Justin was. He wasn't even attacking Justin personally, he was criticizing his support of bill C-51, which was fully deserved.
This is really not the scandal you think it is, lol. Pretty much no one cares.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Morrigan Stark said:
I think it's amusing that you seem more offended at this line than Justin was. He wasn't even attacking Justin personally, he was criticizing his support of bill C-51, which was fully deserved.
This is really not the scandal you think it is, lol. Pretty much no one cares.
Click to expand...

equating voting for C-51 with Pierre Trudeau's of the use of the War Measures act is disingenuous and pandering
 
D

Deleted member 126221

Unconfirmed Member
gutter_trash said:
equating voting for C-51 with Pierre Trudeau's of the use of the War Measures act is disingenuous and pandering
Click to expand...

How so? Because C-51's vagueness concerning "threats to the canadian unity" reminds me a lot of the war measures act...
 
P

Pedrito

Member
TheGreatPotato said:
Harper just announced a re-elected CPC government would outlaw tax increases for 4 years. This brings up interesting questions:

- If it's only for 4 years and they will be in power anyway, why the law? Why not just don't raise taxes? Or do they not trust themselves?
- If it's such a big deal, why not ban them forever?

Either way the law has no effect as a successive government can simply override it with a new law that raises taxes and voids the old one. It's plain ideological crud. And does it apply to all federal taxes such as tariffs? Because some embargoes raise those. Would it prevent him from raising embargoes on Iran or N. Korea?
Click to expand...

Haha. And to think people fall for this crap.

It's pretty much a ploy to be able to say, after he wins a minority and fails to pass his law: "see, those guys voted against my tax lock law. They're after you hard earned money".
 
pr0cs

pr0cs

Member
I was wondering, has there been a successful NDP run province in recent memory? Or are the provincial NDP entirely different than federal... Enough that they could be called a different political party?
Is there any commonality between federal and provincial NDP?
 
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