It's a ranked ballot, meaning you can vote from the least worst to worst worst without an issue. Chong is considered the least awful while O'Leary & Leitch are seen as the worst of the 14 candidates.
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Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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It's a ranked ballot, meaning you can vote from the least worst to worst worst without an issue. Chong is considered the least awful while O'Leary & Leitch are seen as the worst of the 14 candidates.
Anything can happen. Trudeau accepts pipelines today, he renegs on electoral reform. How sturdy is the ndp support that he got in the last election. What i'm afraid of is the bernie effect also coming over north and we have to deal with absurd purity tests.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I feel like trying to get someone in should be as important as trying to make sure those two are last though. Then again, I wonder if enough people are even going to do this for it to matter.
Well, let's face it, the Quebec thing was clearly an accident (probably like the NDP win in Alberta). I think honestly the Maritimes is probably more in play for the NDP than Toronto specifically or the GTA/southern Ontario as a whole.
How long do you think ndp support will last in alberta? You think it's sustainable? The ndp lost support in quebec as easily as they won it. Canadians are fickle and can't be taken for granted. Don't underestimate the stupidity in large groups when confronted with a demogogue.
It's not the ndp vote in toronto that worries me. it's the soft c conservatives that are so willing to vote for ford. Because tax cuts.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Well, that was my point. The Alberta thing was clearly a protest vote since the Liberal brand is so damaged that there is no alternative.
I don't think Toronto itself will vote CPC in any meaningful numbers, and since the NDP are irrelevant, there isn't really a worry about left votes splitting. Probably the only danger would be completely disaffected voters not bothering to vote.
But of course, who knows. Maybe the New CPC will be a viable centre-right party that gets rid of any vestiges of sexist/racist/classist/anti-science/anti-environment party platform positions and Trudeau becomes the empty shirt leader that his opponents believe that he is.
Silent Chief
Member
It really depends who the NDP and Conservative leaders are.
If they can finally get rid of the Block, there's a few more seats to grab in Quebec.
Toronto has so many MPs, but I think Trump will scare them from voting conservative.
killer rin
Member
Bumping this for new page...
I went to Chong's website and saw his tax plan.
2 tax brackets? Really? I mean it'd be good for me because I pay less tax but a huge loss in federal income tax revenue. How will that fund our social programs and so on? He is also referencing Fraser Institute for spending cut. That's kind of worrying.
Oh, and he also wants to privatize the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). He says that will get banks to invest more in riskier small and medium businesses than safe housing mortgage. Curious point about that and I wonder if it'll be effective.
Ew. Ew. Ew. Ew. Ew.
Thats clinically insane levels of policy right here. It's quite clearly a starve the beast policy. With that level if reduction, government simply wouldn't be able to function in a way Canadians have shown they want it to function, you would have to cut social spending; there is no way around it. Hell, we are already have structural deficits so this would just make the issue worse.
Ew.
If the CPC gets zero seats in the next election in Quebec because O'Leary is their leader you can even kiss goodbye to their chances of forming even a minority government. They would probably end up winning somewhere between 60 and 100 seats nationwide if O'Leary ended up as the leader of the CPC.
I could only hope.
The danger i see is support softening and the gains trudeau made by pivoting left will be lost with split votes. then a crazy like leitch wins... I'm hoping that canada is different from he rest of the world and i do believe it. but i'm just not convinced since the election is 3 years away and anything can happen. Now trudeau has to navigate an already fragile economy in the face of trump's admin.
I'd be okay with a progressive conservative leader but the leadership race has shown me nothing but no go's. i can't stand any of them.
I'm just worried that Chong is the best candidate conservatives can offer. While I appreciate his call to action on climate change, his economic policy as stated above is horrible. It is so important for us Canadian to have high funding to our education and healthcare. We don't want uneducated and unhealthy population. That's the best way to combat crazies as far as I know. In order to do that, we need a healthy federal income tax revenue. I fear his plan will not achieve that.
I can also appreciate fiscal conservatism and wanting small government. But he wants to decrease tax revenue and increase certain tax credits. That does not work in my mind.
gutter_trash
Banned
Wynne will help O'leary win Ontario, LOL
Ontarians are bellweather Conservatives, anyway its the birthplace of Canadian Tories
matthewwhatever
Member
I went to Chong's website and saw his tax plan.
2 tax brackets? Really? I mean it'd be good for me because I pay less tax but a huge loss in federal income tax revenue. How will that fund our social programs and so on? He is also referencing Fraser Institute for spending cut. That's kind of worrying.
Oh, and he also wants to privatize the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). He says that will get banks to invest more in riskier small and medium businesses than safe housing mortgage. Curious point about that and I wonder if it'll be effective.
Reminder: just because Chong is okay on some things doesn't mean he's not a standard issue Conservative on a lot of other issues.
It really depends where you stand on a range of issues. Like, if you're a really hardcore libertarian, then Bernier is your guy. Personally, I think he's a nut -- albeit a nut who's very comfortable in his own skin, which means he may be dangerous -- but I'm not going to assume what your stances are.
Alternatively, Brad Trost and Andrew Scheer are the die-hard social conservatives. Trost is more vocal about it, but Scheer is just as crazy, he's just quieter about it. He's also more of a threat to win because he was Speaker of the House for four years, so he has no record.
Steven Blaney is like a French Kellie Leitch, but he has zero support, and he's only running to spite Bernier in Quebec. Given that Bernier has an overwhelming cash advantage in Quebec, that should tell you how bad Blaney is.
There's are a few relatively moderate candidates: Lisa Raitt and Erin O'Toole, plus maybe Chong. If you're looking how to rank them in terms of winnability, that's probably the right order. Chris Alexander is arguably in this category, but he also stood by while people chanted "Lock her up" in Alberta, so I leave it to you to decide how sincere you think his moderation is. (He was also a massive flop as a cabinet minister.)
The no-hopers are people like Pierre Lemieux (also a so-con), Andrew Saxton, and Rick Petersen. No seats, no cash, no endorsements. Deepak Obhrai probably fits in this category too, though I personally find him oddly endearing and incredibly entertaining.
If it were me, I'd probably rank them:
Raitt
Obhrai
O'Toole
Chong
Alexander
Bernier
Saxton/Petersen
Scheer
Lemieux
O'Leary (bad as he is, a few people are far worse)
Blaney
Trost
Leitch
The screenshot doesn't include the proposed carbon tax, which is supposed to cover the reduction in income and corporate taxes. ($130 per tonne by 2031, predicted to generate about 15 billion in revenue per year). Reading his backgrounder he talks a lot about shifting taxation from income taxes to consumption taxes. So while the numbers will surely change by the time of the next election, you could expect his tax plan to line up with that goal. But yeah, he's definitely not some secret Liberal like some CPC members like to claim. Although finally getting the CPC to agree that climate change is some serious shit would be a big step forward, even if you don't want them to win.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.n...1478493883/Tax_Backgrounder_EN.pdf?1478493883
Also, both healthcare and education are provincial things.
Hmm I see. However, isn't consumption tax regressive by nature? Poor people will be paying proportionally more because everybody still needs to buy food and everyday goods. This would be shifting the tax burden away from the rich.
Raitt's abhorrent treatment of unions i.e. forcing union workers back to work via legislation in spite of their legal right to a peaceful assembly while being the Minister of Labour precludes her from having a seat at The Moderates table. Her opposition to O'Leary and Leitch have only made that case all the stronger given one of her main points against O'Leary was "he supports a carbon tax" and hypocritically criticizing him from wanting to imprison union members.
UberTag
Member
Can you keep us posted on whether your rankings change prior to the vote two months from now? You're clearly more knowledgeable about the candidates than I'm ever going to be and I think I may just want to crib whatever order you elect to go with (or at least use it as a starting point before fine-tuning my picks).
Simon Belmont
Banned
This has to be the weakest field of potential leaders in PC/C/CPC/whatever's history.
As far as I could tell at the time, the Canada Post back to work legislation was one of the more popular things Harper ever did. I suspect it's a considerably more mainstream and 'moderate' thing than you think.
matthewwhatever
Member
Oh, she's absolutely terrible in quite a few ways -- I don't want to give the impression that she's an objectively *good* candidate. Her French is also atrocious, which means...well, not much in this field, since that goes for most people. I'm just saying that in the tire fire that is the field of CPC leadership candidates, she ranks as one of the lesser evils.
I'm obsessed with it, so absolutely!
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
So Trump said approve Keystone quickly, Trudeau celebrated the decision, but Trump conditioned that the pipes need to be built with US steel, to which Freeland said "no, that's protectionism, protectionism is bad". Maybe she and Trudeau should talk to each other first.
I guarantee you Trump will win this one, and Freeland will end up quitting within a year if this is how her relationship with Trump's team starts.
I guarantee you Trump will win this one, and Freeland will end up quitting within a year if this is how her relationship with Trump's team starts.
Well, in the strictest sense of the term they are proportional since there is only one rate. There is an argument that they are in practice regressive because poorer people tend to spend a higher portion of their income on consumption, but nothing is stopping bankers from blowing through their money and spending just as high a proportion. In so far as that might be regressive, you can do some fancy footwork with tax credits and stuff to "correct" for that. And with something like the carbon tax there are positive effects beyond just raising revenue. Most directly it would be shifting the tax burden towards polluters, but I'll admit it might very well end up shifting the burden away from the wealthy.
The benefit of shifting from income taxes to consumption taxes is that it incentivises working more (as you get to keep more) and disincentives consumption, hopefully leading to increased savings rates. And beyond whatever personal benefits higher savings rates might be thought to have, savings and investment are important to economic growth, and higher savings rates might in the long run lead to higher living standards. There is some ideal ratio between savings and consumption rates, and western countries are generally thought to be on the side of less than optimal savings rates. To be honest I'm having trouble finding the ideal middle point of google search terms to get me sources on this instead of explanations of growth models or articles about low interest rates on savings accounts, but I feel quite confident in saying that Western savings rates are thought to be too low.
EDIT: Charts.
Just to add upon this: talking about consumption taxes and/or income taxes for lower tax brackets is completely the wrong conversation to have. Most jurisdictions have figured out how to aid the severely impoverished, and that is to directly subsidize their living. Specifically, GIS and OAS are both programs directly targeting impoverished seniors. There are even programs for disabilities and such.
So yes, while consumption taxes are in practice regressive, rolling back or eliminating them for people in extreme poverty doesn't actually help them in the grand scheme of things.
killer rin
Member
Correct me if I'm wrong, but when it comes to Keystone isn't the Canadian side of things already built, or brought as close to the border they could go before requiring USA approval?
Buba Big Guns
Banned
Canada should implement a fast track immigration program for STEM professionals along with a large science funding program (which the government is already doing). I can see a significant brain drain from the US under Trump.
Hmm, looks like even I was wrong on this: Keystone XL and Keystone are actually two different parts of the same 'line'. Keystone itself already exists from Alberta to Cushing. There's the Market Line (Keystone Phase 3a) as well as a separate Seaway line.
Keystone XL is actually a separate route from Hardisty, which wasn't my impression when I looked at the alignment years ago. Then again, I could've been confusing the line with another cross-border project from years past.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline#Route
http://business.financialpost.com/n...eep-streaming-to-the-end-point-of-keystone-xl
edit: Confusing things even further: the Keystone XL extension was proposed not long after Keystone itself was built: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline#History
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
I would assume that Transcanada would have been in charge of building the pipeline in the US, with the material it would chose. Like if any US company decides to build something in Canada it's pretty rare that the Canadian government would require it to buy Canadian material. That's more the kind of thing India or China would usually do. So that the Canadian part would already done has little bearing on what follows.
matthewwhatever
Member
Apparently Kady O'Malley has been let go from the Citizen as part of the latest round of Postmedia layoffs. That seems to be all over Twitter at the moment, though I haven't seen anything official. If it's true, it's a shame -- she's possibly the only political journalist in Canada who pays close attention to committees and who reports on Parliament beyond superficial QP nonsense. I don't know how many eyeballs she brought in for them, but I always considered her to be essential reading.
killer rin
Member
Well, the USA metal requirements aren't a new thing. The new Windsor/Detroit bridge being built at the end of the 401 extension has to use USA steel because of USA Steel Policies. It's part of the reason why the cost of the bridge more than tripled for Canada because not only are we being forced to pay for 100% of the bridge, but we have to use American Steel for half of it with a CAD that decided to throw itself off the hypothetical bridge
Why did she jump ship from the CBC in the first place, prior to her move to the Citizen I mean?
matthewwhatever
Member
If I remember correctly, they were planning on making her the centrepiece of their digital offerings. That obviously didn't go very far.
Also, she's confirmed it on Twitter, so that's one more political reporter in this country gone. I'm sure she'll latch on somewhere, but it's still pretty sad.
That's what they said last year about the GOP!
Simon Belmont
Banned
Trump wouldn't have won against an incumbent like Bams.
Has anyone read this? Not really surprised coming from alberta but the article does end on a good note.
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/ne...http://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/ne...http://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile
gutter_trash
Banned
2011's Quebec Orange Crush had NOTHING to do with the party but all to do with Jacky Layton + Bloc Fatigue.
the majority of habitual Bloc voters voted NDP in 2011. Some Liberal voters voted NDP.
But the majority of ethnic minorities in Quebec stayed loyal to the Liberals, reason being why some Montreal MPs like Dion, Garneau and Trudeau survived
Sorry for the potentially dumb question;
So the stuff apparently going on in the US is genuinely stressing/bumming me out, and I'm worried about that momentum having a ripple effect here in the future. Is there anything I can do besides wait/see/hope?
Regrettably I've been kind of shitty at keeping up with domestic politics but want to use this as a means to get more involved.
So the stuff apparently going on in the US is genuinely stressing/bumming me out, and I'm worried about that momentum having a ripple effect here in the future. Is there anything I can do besides wait/see/hope?
Regrettably I've been kind of shitty at keeping up with domestic politics but want to use this as a means to get more involved.
AuthenticM
Member
Sign up for a membership in the conservative party and vote in their leader selection in may.
The tone for the 2019 election will be set by whoever wins the CPC and NDP leadership races. Hopefully one of the populists isn't elected. But thankfully neither is really entirely Trump. Leitch has taken the Trumpian social positions but doesn't have the bluster. O'Leary has the bluster but he isn't really a social conservative. Still, I think it would degrade our political culture if either is elected. Chong's election should deal a death blow to climate change denial. Bernier would challenge the supply management status quo. The rest of the field seems like pretty generic social and/or fiscal conservatives to be honest.
The Liberals have been governing without much controversy really. But electoral reform doesn't seem to be happening and the deficit is larger than they had proposed.
I have no idea what's going on in the NDP.
The Liberals have been governing without much controversy really. But electoral reform doesn't seem to be happening and the deficit is larger than they had proposed.
I have no idea what's going on in the NDP.
Calgary continues to be embarassing. Nice city to visit but living there is a nightmare.
I may be biased because I'm an Edmontonian...
Trudeau is finishing Harper's trade deals and taking unscripted questions from hostile crowds. We are blessed.
gutter_trash
Banned
Trump's week 1 makes Justin's gafs look like nothing.
I know Canadian politics and especially Provincial Politics nit picks allot on the most minor appearances of conflicts of interests and gafs...
but LOL, with Trump dominating the news with shitty executive orders after another, nobody can talk shit about Canadian politics IMO
so Trudeau went on a trip with some guy? pfffff look Trump is pulling out UN funding, shutting down refugee claimants and silencing EPA employees
I know Canadian politics and especially Provincial Politics nit picks allot on the most minor appearances of conflicts of interests and gafs...
but LOL, with Trump dominating the news with shitty executive orders after another, nobody can talk shit about Canadian politics IMO
so Trudeau went on a trip with some guy? pfffff look Trump is pulling out UN funding, shutting down refugee claimants and silencing EPA employees
But her e-mai-I mean his elbow!
This is going to be a tough time for Canada-US relations in the coming years if Trump renegotiates/tears up NAFTA given they're our largest trading partner (maybe we'll see a greater shift towards the EU's market?), not to mention Justin Trudeau maintaining his belief in equality, feminism, etc. and standing up for those beliefs beyond a tweet that vaguely nods in support of the Women's March protests across Canada when Trump has the intellect and thickness of a brick wall when it comes to social issues given his recent actions in regards to abortion in the United States. Even with the two country's lengthy relationship and Trump's supposed positive feelings towards the country, I doubt we'll see much of anything positive come from the two's inevitable interactions, let alone Trump changing his ways as a result.
As an aside, has there ever been a more stark contrast between the U.S. President and Canadian Prime Ministers? Reagan and P.E.T. is the only that comes to mind (I know some might say Nixon and Pierre given Nixon called Trudeau a son of a bitch at one point and Trudeau's response was "I've been called worse things by better people" but Reagan was far more regressive socially than Nixon, which isn't to say Nixon wasn't) but even that doesn't compare to President Pisstake and Prime Minister Panda Hugger.
matthewwhatever
Member
It's pretty normal for the relationship to get a little bumpy when you have a Liberal/Republican or Conservative/Democrat combo. Just look at Harper and Obama or Chretien and Bush for recent examples. Going back, Pierre Trudeau and Richard Nixon hated each other. Kennedy despised Diefenbaker so much he sent Democratic Party operatives up to help Pearson and the Liberals. Our two countries generally seem to get along better when the two parties match up, i.e. Chretien-Clinton, or Mulroney-Reagan, or King-Roosevelt.
Obviously the difference between Trudeau and Trump is pretty noticeable, but I don't think it's that much more than what we've seen before.
Obviously the difference between Trudeau and Trump is pretty noticeable, but I don't think it's that much more than what we've seen before.
KernelPanic
Member
I'm actually worried what(if anything) Trump will do to Canada since we now represent just about everything he is against.
Not so much Trump but Bannon's little media network of bullshit.
Not so much Trump but Bannon's little media network of bullshit.
matthewwhatever
Member
I think that to the extent any country can be innoculated, we are. Canada is the #1 trade partner for 35 states, and in the top 3 for another 13. We do more than $1 billion/day in trade. The only reason we're not the US' #1 trading partner is because our dollar fell so much last year -- the trade volume remained the same. Our trade figures are basically even, so there's no trade deficit that would catch his eye. One of Trump's top economic advisors came up here and even said that Trump views Canada in a positive light. Those Rust Belt cities and states that went for Trump look longingly back to the days when they were sending their exports here, and there are border GOP Congresspeople openly talking about bringing back the original FTA.
That's not to say we have nothing to worry about. As you note, Bannon, in particular, might not like us much, and there are idiots like Ezra desperate to import the Breitbart model up here. But on the whole, no matter how different Trudeau and Trump might be, I think we're better positioned to weather any turbulence that may occur than almost any other country.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Sun TV failed hard. There's no market for that stuff here.
The Rebel is sustaining itself pretty well right now.
Meanwhile:
The National Post's editorializing of almost all its content gives me a headache sometimes.
pr0cs
Member
Especially if you are leftist or unemployed, which the latter is more commonplace these days.
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