• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia

Status
Not open for further replies.
And the truth come out - Fears Of Alt-Right, Divisive Referendum Behind Liberal Electoral Reform Reversal: Insiders


You know, if the Alt-Right argument was the reason, they have already failed. One look across the aisle will tell you all you need to know about certains groups of deplorables trying to take over a weakened yet major party.

It gets more into the Alt-Right argument deeper in the article. There is also the usual argument of really not wanting to do a referendum, the insiders mentioning them not wanting to reopen the Clarity Act, an argument of if 50% would be enough to pass and the issue of what to do if every province but a couple special snowflakes supported it... and also the issue that Trudeau really wanted a Preferential Ballot

Just a reminder that this piece is basically the government laying out an argument through its media channels to try to better their position for an issue that they are going to have a hard time getting past through the next election. "Several government sources, speaking to The Huffington Post Canada on condition of anonymity," (contained in the article) is classic inside coverage that certain media types basically pass off as "news," which passes along the governments preferred message, while failing to question the government in a deeper more meaningful way.

I am not saying that this wasn't something that the liberals thought about and discussed when debating the issue internally but it is a pretty weak argument and one that only holds more power alongside recent news out of the states.

Also as some have brought up, having grown up in Alberta in the 90s it is clear that there were and continue to be powerful pseudo alt righters in the reform now conservative party who gained a lot of power (remember opposition) under the guise of wanting Alberta in.
 

UberTag

Member
Fucking idiots. Weak as hell arguments there. Oh - there could end up being an alt-right person or two in parliament if we switch to a PR system. And? You have a major damn party flirting with the possibility of being led by such individuals now, and under the current system that means they could end up having control of the government. That's so much worse than a seat or two with those people - assuming there aren't safeguards in place to prevent such things to begin with.

Trudeau is being a goddamn idiot. Thanks to him and the Liberals wanting a system that would benefit them, instead of what would be best for the country, we're all going to get screwed.
One or two radicals in a PR system can easily be ignored.
Whereas the Conservatives are susceptible of being taken over by alt-right interests and running the entire country into the ground with FPTP still in place.

Trudeau is gambling the country's future by sticking with the system that conditions people to defacto vote for the Liberals out of fear. You can't do that if the evil Conservative boogeyman is neutered. It's wholly transparent and disingenuous. Even moreso if Liberal interests rally behind O'Leary which I very much suspect they are.
 
One or two radicals in a PR system can easily be ignored.
Whereas the Conservatives are susceptible of being taken over by alt-right interests and running the entire country into the ground with FPTP still in place.

And this it exactly. If you give the extremists their 1-2 seats, if they earn them through passing the proportional threshold, the Extremists suddenly become more dedicated to building out their own party and becoming electable than if you ignore them and force them to take over a major party to have their views heard.
 
Alright. 14 is a lot of candidates.

  1. Chong
  2. Raitt
  3. O'Toole
  4. Obhrai
  5. Alexander
  6. Bernier
  7. Scheer
  8. Peterson
  9. O'Leary
  10. Saxton
  11. Blaney
  12. Lemieux
  13. Trost
  14. Leitch

Can't you leave Leitch blank?

Personally, I'm really impressed by Obhrai, him speaking English at a French debate notwithstanding.

Also, that would approximately be my list as well, although I'd have Chris "C-24 second class Canadians" Alexander a bit lower.
 
And the truth come out - Fears Of Alt-Right, Divisive Referendum Behind Liberal Electoral Reform Reversal: Insiders


You know, if the Alt-Right argument was the reason, they have already failed. One look across the aisle will tell you all you need to know about certains groups of deplorables trying to take over a weakened yet major party.

It gets more into the Alt-Right argument deeper in the article. There is also the usual argument of really not wanting to do a referendum, the insiders mentioning them not wanting to reopen the Clarity Act, an argument of if 50% would be enough to pass and the issue of what to do if every province but a couple special snowflakes supported it... and also the issue that Trudeau really wanted a Preferential Ballot

Didn't we almost get Stephen Harper re-elected under FPTP? He's not outright white nationalist, but it's way easier for a white nationalist to take over the Conservatives and its party machinations than it is to build a party from the ground up and have it get 50% of the vote.

I agree with not having a referendum though. Referendums are a strong-arm option made to silence people who have minority opinions. Just because an opinion is popular doesn't make the opinion right, and referendums embody this false notion.
 

Mr.Mike

Member

UberTag

Member
Well, you can only rank up to 10 anyway, and you only need to rank at least 1 person for your vote to be valid. http://www.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jwVHlOlnB1-rNCI.pdf
I'm concerned about people including O'Leary on their ballots in any way, shape or form.

You have to account for polls when building these things out.
Even if he would be an improvement over Leitch, I'd have to rank her above him (in a hypothetical situation where I had to rank everyone) simply because he's much more likely to win.

That said, neither of them will be on my ballot in May. Odds are I'll probably just rank Raitt-1st, O'Toole-2nd, Obhrai-3rd, Chong-4th and call it a day.
 

Apathy

Member
And this it exactly. If you give the extremists their 1-2 seats, if they earn them through passing the proportional threshold, the Extremists suddenly become more dedicated to building out their own party and becoming electable than if you ignore them and force them to take over a major party to have their views heard.

A major party can back bench them, they can kick them out and good luck for them trying to run as independents or with an even more obscure party. The second they get in with 1-2% as super fringe parties they get to speak. You think right wing nationalist parties in europe stated out massive? All these white nationalist parties should never get a platform to speak, ever.
 
A major party can back bench them, they can kick them out and good luck for them trying to run as independents or with an even more obscure party. The second they get in with 1-2% as super fringe parties they get to speak. You think right wing nationalist parties in europe stated out massive? All these white nationalist parties should never get a platform to speak, ever.

Most MMP systems have minimum thresholds. Germany's is 5%. Ontario's proposed system was 3% or 1 seat won under regular FPTP (either or).

I think we can raise it to 5%, or give proportional seats to only parties that wins at least one seat under FPTP (the local MP ballot). We can even make the local MP ballot an instant-run off ballot. Best of both worlds.
 

maharg

idspispopd
The reason ranked ballots are good is because right wing would need to add parties and further dilute their vote to more accurate representation.

It would also allow for more regional representation.

People keep looking at the immediate future for ranked ballots, not long term.

We would go from 3 major parties to like 6-8, mixed with proportionality, you would get a more accurate government because people aren't perfect liberals or perfect NDP or perfect conservatives.

Over time you would see a balanced government as the amount of parties grow

Ranked ballots do not cause an increase in the number of parties. At best they entrench about 3 options. There's no way 6-8 parties would rise up and thrive when they'd all be first choices to ballots with mainstream parties as second choices. The votes accumulate towards the centre.

Look at Australia, which does ranked ballots in their house and a form of regional pr in their senate. Look at how many parties each have elected. Look at which one has a majority leadership. And they're elected by the same populous.

If you want a diverse set of parties in the legislature it's pr you want.

A major party can back bench them, they can kick them out and good luck for them trying to run as independents or with an even more obscure party. The second they get in with 1-2% as super fringe parties they get to speak. You think right wing nationalist parties in europe stated out massive? All these white nationalist parties should never get a platform to speak, ever.

In the European pr systems you tend to see nationalist taking power when they genuinely garner a large amount of support from voters. No electoral system that pretends democracy can prevent that.

Look to the south to see how fptp on the other hand allows nationalists to come in under the covers of big tents and win yuuuge.
 

SRG01

Member
Didn't we almost get Stephen Harper re-elected under FPTP? He's not outright white nationalist, but it's way easier for a white nationalist to take over the Conservatives and its party machinations than it is to build a party from the ground up and have it get 50% of the vote.

Not really. The ridings with reasonable margins were soft-right votes in Ontario, and they've always flipped between Liberals and Conservatives.

Atlantic Canada is another story, as the complete blowout by the Liberals indicate that the CPC, like the Democrats in the south, took their core Maritime ridings for granted and shifted their eyes westward. These voters will never vote for CPC again -- the Liberal tent is huge -- unless they propose something that isn't Western-centric.
 
A major party can back bench them, they can kick them out and good luck for them trying to run as independents or with an even more obscure party. The second they get in with 1-2% as super fringe parties they get to speak. You think right wing nationalist parties in europe stated out massive? All these white nationalist parties should never get a platform to speak, ever.

It only takes a coordinated action for 2% of voters to takeover a political party. You have to remember the (super)majority of people aren't members of a political party in a capacity that would allow them to vote at party conventions. Assuming you had 2% of people eligible to vote who were white nationalists and decided to coordinate and buy Conservative Memberships, you can bet your ass they would take over the party. That would be over 512,000 people, a little over 5x the votes cast in the Liberal leadership race of 2013. Hell even 1% of that would be 256,000 people or 0.5% would be 128,000 people. No party could prevent that.

From there its all about pretending at the election until people get tired of the current government and let you in by proxy. It's not hard
 

SRG01

Member
It only takes a coordinated action for 2% of voters to takeover a political party. You have to remember the (super)majority of people aren't members of a political party in a capacity that would allow them to vote at party conventions. Assuming you had 2% of people eligible to vote who were white nationalists and decided to coordinate and buy Conservative Memberships, you can bet your ass they would take over the party. No party could prevent that.

From there its all about pretending at the election until people get tired of the current government and let you in by proxy.

Yup, it's how the current PC party leadership campaign has been completely turned over its head because Kenney literally parachuted himself and his campaign into the province. And the party itself has zero backbone in enforcing its own rules.
 
Not really. The ridings with reasonable margins were soft-right votes in Ontario, and they've always flipped between Liberals and Conservatives.

Atlantic Canada is another story, as the complete blowout by the Liberals indicate that the CPC, like the Democrats in the south, took their core Maritime ridings for granted and shifted their eyes westward. These voters will never vote for CPC again -- the Liberal tent is huge -- unless they propose something that isn't Western-centric.

Harper's vote totals didn't really collapse though, they remained steady. It's that Liberal turnout was way up and a lot of regular NDP voters went for the Liberals too, at least that's the story in Ontario and BC. There's no saying how the election would have went if the Conservatives weren't an unpopular incumbent that had governed for 9 years already, while also still running on their racist-lite platform.
 
A major party can back bench them, they can kick them out and good luck for them trying to run as independents or with an even more obscure party. The second they get in with 1-2% as super fringe parties they get to speak. You think right wing nationalist parties in europe stated out massive? All these white nationalist parties should never get a platform to speak, ever.

Precisely this. All those people ranting here about the terrors of white supremacists taking over the Conservative Party clearly don't remember/weren't around for the '90s. The Reform Party/Canadian Alliance kept getting waylaid by racist eruptions from random members, and it meant no one was ever going to take them seriously. It took Harper coming in and muzzling his entire party (plus a series of less-than-stellar Liberal leaders) for them to get into government, and then the moment they started nodding at the racist vote again, they lost the next election.

It only takes a coordinated action for 2% of voters to takeover a political party. You have to remember the (super)majority of people aren't members of a political party in a capacity that would allow them to vote at party conventions. Assuming you had 2% of people eligible to vote who were white nationalists and decided to coordinate and buy Conservative Memberships, you can bet your ass they would take over the party. That would be 479,434 people, almost 5x the votes cast in the Liberal leadership race of 2013. No party could prevent that.

From there its all about pretending at the election until people get tired of the current government and let you in by proxy. It's not hard

You say this like it's some easy thing. David Orchard (anti-free trade farmer from Saskatchewan) tried multiple times to take over the PC Party when it was a non-entity post-1993, but he failed miserably. The best he was able to do was crown Peter Mackay in 2003, and even that backfired on him spectacularly. Our system generally pushes parties towards the centre, and no party with government aspirations is going to go crazy off in one direction or another, because it's been proven to be a terrible strategy time and time again.

Ranked ballots do not cause an increase in the number of parties. At best they entrench about 3 options. There's no way 6-8 parties would rise up and thrive when they'd all be first choices to ballots with mainstream parties as second choices. The votes accumulate towards the centre.

Look at Australia, which does ranked ballots in their house and a form of regional pr in their senate. Look at how many parties each have elected. Look at which one has a majority leadership. And they're elected by the same populous.

If you want a diverse set of parties in the legislature it's pr you want.

...you say that like it's a bad thing. ;)
 

Tiktaalik

Member
A major party can back bench them, they can kick them out and good luck for them trying to run as independents or with an even more obscure party. The second they get in with 1-2% as super fringe parties they get to speak. You think right wing nationalist parties in europe stated out massive? All these white nationalist parties should never get a platform to speak, ever.

Hard to backbench a member if they're the leader... The example of the USA shows that if people or party members want to elect an extremist they will. You can't create a perfect electoral system to guard against this.
 

Zips

Member
Whatever system you personally think is best to avoid the alt-right achieving power (and I strongly believe FPTP is a terrible system for that), Trudeau has just given massive ammunition to the Conservative party to exploit during the next election.

Because of the system we have, all the Conservatives need to do is use things like this to make Trudeau look bad, and drive a wedge between Liberals and NDP voters. The goal will be splitting them and leaving their percentages individually weak, while the Conservatives just hide their crazy as best they can until after the election.

I am surprised to see people arguing that alt-right voices can be silenced in a major party. Just because we don't hear it doesn't mean they aren't there and still putting in some influence. Not to mention that it might be hard to silence when the party leadership is alt-right themselves.

After all that's gone on in the States, nobody should have faith that the sane members of a party will openly fight against the insane parts, or that a sizable chunk of the electorate does little more than check off whoever's name is next to the party they always vote for. Harper's numbers were still fairly stable, remember, even after what he did.

We are now essentially relying on Trudeau's popularity not waning by the next election, as the NDP still seem directionless, and a vote split would be very possible if people have lost their idolization of Trudeau. This is not reassuring in the times we live in.
 
I'm sorry, but anyone who thinks that the contours of the next election are being set now is insane. At various points during the 2015 election, we had the Liberals being dead and buried, the NDP on a path to a majority, and people talking openly about the CPC finishing in third place. That was just over the course of eight weeks. We're talking about an election that's two and a half years away, when we don't even know who two of the three main party leaders will be, and -- more importantly -- when we have no idea what kind of craziness will be going on south of the border. The only people talking about electoral reform at that point will be the same people who always talk about electoral reform, because it's all they're capable of talking about.
 

lupinko

Member
The reason ranked ballots are good is because right wing would need to add parties and further dilute their vote to more accurate representation.

It would also allow for more regional representation.

People keep looking at the immediate future for ranked ballots, not long term.

We would go from 3 major parties to like 6-8, mixed with proportionality, you would get a more accurate government because people aren't perfect liberals or perfect NDP or perfect conservatives.

Over time you would see a balanced government as the amount of parties grow

That's the argument for it, but the rank ballot will always give the LPC the best chance to win in every election.

In Australia, their Liberal Party (which is actually a Conservative party, like Japan's Liberal Democratic Party) always seems to win in every election.

I don't mind the LPC winning all the time (I am a registered LPC member iirc), but the argument against ranked ballots is certainly there. And it's understandable.

To help smaller parties, they could make further changes to campaign financing to even the playing field more.

And I really don't want any avenue that allows for heinous people to get into government. Italy has the granddaughter of Mussolini sitting in their parliament and the Philippines had the son of Marcos as a senator who tried to run for Vice President (he lost but I read Duterte is trying to oust the current democratically elected [who is also his opposition] Vice President so he can install Marcos' son instead as VP).
 
That's the argument for it, but the rank ballot will always give the LPC the best chance to win in every election.

In Australia, their Liberal Party (which is actually a Conservative party, like Japan's Liberal Democratic Party) always seems to win in every election.

I don't mind the LPC winning all the time (I am a registered LPC member iirc), but the argument against ranked ballots is certainly there. And it's understandable.

To help smaller parties, they could make further changes to campaign financing to even the playing field more.

And I really don't want any avenue that allows for heinous people to get into government. Italy has the granddaughter of Mussolini sitting in their parliament and the Philippines had the son of Marcos as a senator who tried to run for Vice President (he lost but I read Duterte is trying to oust the current democratically elected [who is also his opposition] Vice President so he can install Marcos' son instead as VP).

There doesn't seem to be any strong preference for any one party in Australia and its states, especially post-1970, giving credence to the idea that all ranked ballot systems eventually devolve into two-party systems (and not one-party or multi-party).

616094384014610c22d31861943c158d.png


(Borrowed from Wikipedia)
 

SRG01

Member
Harper's vote totals didn't really collapse though, they remained steady. It's that Liberal turnout was way up and a lot of regular NDP voters went for the Liberals too, at least that's the story in Ontario and BC. There's no saying how the election would have went if the Conservatives weren't an unpopular incumbent that had governed for 9 years already, while also still running on their racist-lite platform.

I'm processing this by hand at the moment, but here's my statistics for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. I'll have to find a way to mass-download the election results and some code to process the files, because EC only gives links per riding at the moment :(

The results, of course, don't say where the conservative vote went, but do show a drop across the board.


edit: Oh, the colors show the 2011 incumbents.
 

Zips

Member
I'm sorry, but anyone who thinks that the contours of the next election are being set now is insane. At various points during the 2015 election, we had the Liberals being dead and buried, the NDP on a path to a majority, and people talking openly about the CPC finishing in third place. That was just over the course of eight weeks. We're talking about an election that's two and a half years away, when we don't even know who two of the three main party leaders will be, and -- more importantly -- when we have no idea what kind of craziness will be going on south of the border. The only people talking about electoral reform at that point will be the same people who always talk about electoral reform, because it's all they're capable of talking about.

I've seen the idolization people have of Trudeau first hand, and it is most definitely something that will be affected by his failures over time. Right now people I encounter still tend to give him the benefit of the doubt on bad things, and attribute anything positive to his doing. We'll see how long that lasts.

Is failing on electoral reform the only thing Conservatives will try to hit Trudeau on (with the focus being lying and/or failing to keep his promises)? No, of course not. Doesn't change that he just gave them something they can use to help make a wedge. Political parties will use whatever they have on someone to cast them in a particular light, and for however long they need to. How long did Republicans go on about Hillary's emails again?
 

Zips

Member
They were able to keep it in the news because the Republicans control both houses...

I never said the Conservatives would do it the exact same way. They will bring it up as suits them.

There obviously won't be trials going on about this.
 

SRG01

Member
I never said the Conservatives would do it the exact same way. They will bring it up as suits them.

There obviously won't be trials going on about this.

I suppose my point is that we're really comparing apples and oranges, in that the US Republicans used the political apparatus for purely partisan purposes. Contrast that to pre-2015, when even the CPC-controlled departments/committees prior to the Liberals had limited ways to engage in partisan activities.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
BLM attacking Trudeau will just make him more popular. Canadians don't care about BLM.
 

jstripes

Banned
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-adams-coletto-1.3960405

''50% of Canadians still don't know who Kelly Leitch is''

''only 0.3% of adult Canadians are card carrying CPC members''

it's hard to poll the leadership race, especially concerning the CPC convention rules
Figures like that always remind me how incredibly political the US actually is. Their primaries involve tens of millions of voters, and our party conventions involved maybe a few thousand.


BLM is an odd organization. They have a very positive and progressive message they want to get across, one I support, but they have a habit of handing the megaphone to a crazy.
 

Kinitari

Black Canada Mafia
I gotta hear the reasoning for this statement, because it seems incredibly dumb and self-destructive

I've been wracking my brain over the logic behind something like this, and I can't figure it out. I wasn't exactly a fan of blmTO before, because of their fundamentally divisive attitude, which I think I've made clear in previous posts - but this makes me think that they've lost any thread that they had before.

My best guess is that they think that Trudeau being the bleeding heart he his, is going to apologize for slavery or something, thus encouraging more support for BLM? I don't know, that's my best guess.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
I've been wracking my brain over the logic behind something like this, and I can't figure it out. I wasn't exactly a fan of blmTO before, because of their fundamentally divisive attitude, which I think I've made clear in previous posts - but this makes me think that they've lost any thread that they had before.

My best guess is that they think that Trudeau being the bleeding heart he his, is going to apologize for slavery or something, thus encouraging more support for BLM? I don't know, that's my best guess.

I think you're giving her too much credit. With a statement like that, especially with how she followed it up, I suspect she feels all white men are oppressing her, because of the colour of their skin, and would make that absurd statement about any with power.
 
the next MP from St-Laurent is either going to be of Yolande James (Jamaican-Canadian) or Marwah Rizqy (Moroccan-Canadian). So a guaranteed 1 more woman MP added.

now back to Justin Trudeau being a white supremacist.... haahahahahahahahaha
 

Alavard

Member
the next MP from St-Laurent is either going to be of Yolande James (Jamaican-Canadian) or Marwah Rizqy (Moroccan-Canadian). So a guaranteed 1 more woman MP added.

now back to Justin Trudeau being a white supremacist.... haahahahahahahahaha

On that note (woman MPs that is), in my riding, Ottawa-Vanier, the Liberals just chose Mona Fortier as their candidate for the upcoming by-election. Given the riding's history, she's almost certainly going to be elected MP when we eventually have the by-election, which would also mark the first woman MP for the riding.
 
Figures like that always remind me how incredibly political the US actually is. Their primaries involve tens of millions of voters, and our party conventions involved maybe a few thousand.

Hopefully this doesn't come off as too much partisan shilling, but this is why I like what the Liberals are doing as far as opening up party membership to anyone willing to hand over their name and email address. They just had a nomination contest in Ottawa-Vanier yesterday to pick their candidate for Mauril Belanger's old seat, and they had to hold the meeting in a convention centre because of the turnout. I don't know how many came out, but going in they had 8,000+ members/supporters and 12 candidates. Admittedly, those numbers are a bit atypical since it's one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, and it was contested so strongly because the winner is virtually guaranteed a seat in Parliament, but still: it sets a good precedent for other ridings for the Liberals, and hopefully it spurs the other parties on to forgo membership fees in favour of opening up the process to more people.

I gotta hear the reasoning for this statement, because it seems incredibly dumb and self-destructive

...is there really something they could say that would make it a justifiable statement?

when are the CPC leadership candidates start dropping off?

that field is still too large, I even believe more people were added on.

At this point, I'll be surprised if that many people drop off. As far as I can tell, everyone who was on stage over the weekend is fully registered and has paid their $100k deposit. Quitting now means flushing all that money down the tubes without even getting to speak at the convention (or whatever they're calling the reveal event).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom