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CFB Week 14: Brought to you by the letter I: Incidental and Insignificant
- Thread starter Lonestar
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chicko1983
Member
I am about $250 down this year, had an 11 leg 10:1 multi which went down on the weekend because Georgia lost!.
Here is my multi bet for this final weekend:
Arizona +13.5pts
Marshall straight
Bama straight
Oklahoma straight
Georgia tech +3pts
Wisconsin straight
Boise St straight
thats 10.45:1 so I need to put about $30 on it to break even for the year
Here is my multi bet for this final weekend:
Arizona +13.5pts
Marshall straight
Bama straight
Oklahoma straight
Georgia tech +3pts
Wisconsin straight
Boise St straight
thats 10.45:1 so I need to put about $30 on it to break even for the year
Well, it's taken Les Miles about 10 years to get LSU down to 5th place (and that's with 8 years of direct head to head competition in ALL things with Saban).
Looking at Florida and late 90's Miami as an example. I don't know how, but Urban somehow depleted that roster. He either chose poorly on the recruiting trail, or Will drove off the talent. Butch, on the other hand, left a shitload of talent, and "Guy who coached afterwards" rode that talent for a few years till he got found out (and forgotten by me, who was that guy?)
I'd feel that Muschamp, Kirby Smart, and Dabo would fit into the "Ride out the talent into Oblivion" type, maybe even potentially figure out how to do the job well enough, that we never see the decline coming. Beyond that, who knows.
It's extremely doubtful Saban himself can repeat 2009-2012, going forward. I'm assuming we'll fall short in the 1st game, if it's against a TCU/Baylor/Oregon type team. It's why I'm hoping for OSUn to be 4 and FSU to somehow beat Oregon
I'm staring at what I just wrote, and man I don't know what the hell any of that means. Fuck it, hitting submit.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Larry Coker
Well, it's taken Les Miles about 10 years to get LSU down to 5th place (and that's with 8 years of direct head to head competition in ALL things with Saban).
Looking at Florida and late 90's Miami as an example. I don't know how, but Urban somehow depleted that roster. He either chose poorly on the recruiting trail, or Will drove off the talent. Butch, on the other hand, left a shitload of talent, and "Guy who coached afterwards" rode that talent for a few years till he got found out (and forgotten by me, who was that guy?)
I'd feel that Muschamp, Kirby Smart, and Dabo would fit into the "Ride out the talent into Oblivion" type, maybe even potentially figure out how to do the job well enough, that we never see the decline coming. Beyond that, who knows.
It's extremely doubtful Saban himself can repeat 2009-2012, going forward. I'm assuming we'll fall short in the 1st game, if it's against a TCU/Baylor/Oregon type team. It's why I'm hoping for OSUn to be 4 and FSU to somehow beat Oregon
I'm staring at what I just wrote, and man I don't know what the hell any of that means. Fuck it, hitting submit.
Pulling a Pristine?
He needs a few more chapters, an index, and a forward written by Joe Namath to equal the average length of a pristine post.
Did he have a sad?
Well, it's taken Les Miles about 10 years to get LSU down to 5th place (and that's with 8 years of direct head to head competition in ALL things with Saban).
Looking at Florida and late 90's Miami as an example. I don't know how, but Urban somehow depleted that roster. He either chose poorly on the recruiting trail, or Will drove off the talent. Butch, on the other hand, left a shitload of talent, and "Guy who coached afterwards" rode that talent for a few years till he got found out (and forgotten by me, who was that guy?)
I'd feel that Muschamp, Kirby Smart, and Dabo would fit into the "Ride out the talent into Oblivion" type, maybe even potentially figure out how to do the job well enough, that we never see the decline coming. Beyond that, who knows.
It's extremely doubtful Saban himself can repeat 2009-2012, going forward. I'm assuming we'll fall short in the 1st game, if it's against a TCU/Baylor/Oregon type team. It's why I'm hoping for OSUn to be 4 and FSU to somehow beat Oregon
I'm staring at what I just wrote, and man I don't know what the hell any of that means. Fuck it, hitting submit.
I think what you're getting at is that decent coach can ride the tails of a great coach and succeed with their players for a while. What's really made the difference has been recruiting
and oversigning and grayshirting
I remember everyone talking about the cupboard being bare at Florida after Urban left, and how Urban won with all of Zook's recruits. I could see that. Seems like few coaches are able to handle being a great head coach and great recruiter. Most fall short in either area, and those have to surround themselves with assistants that offset their deficiency.
Saban's not afraid to hire a shitload of assistants, GA's, secretaries, conditioning coaches, marketing coaches, directors of player personal, and whatever Bobby Williams is doing.
You missed my edited-in final sentence with your quote, which I will note was done 4 minutes before your post.
They've been saying they would do this for a few weeks now, and it's really a terrible idea IMO. His explanation doesn't make any sense at all. "I know we said ONE true champion, but what we meant was that the exact opposite of that is okay as well."
Randolph Freelander
Member
This just in: co-champs are not a new thing.
Big XII can recognize however many they want.
Big XII can recognize however many they want.
Oh god, this Missouri guy on Finebaum...
IF Missouri beats Alabama, there is still no chance they get into the playoff. They shouldn't even get in if OSUn, FSU, Baylor and Oregon lose next week.
You offset a win over #1 Alabama with losing to Indiana. What else do they have on their record? Florida?
Well, now that I think about it, Florida might be FSU's best win.
Also, about the BIX "co-champion" nonsense, then we can credit both teams with 1/2 a championship, which isn't enough to OSUn/Wisconsin's whole Championship. Either team jumps them.
IF Missouri beats Alabama, there is still no chance they get into the playoff. They shouldn't even get in if OSUn, FSU, Baylor and Oregon lose next week.
You offset a win over #1 Alabama with losing to Indiana. What else do they have on their record? Florida?
Well, now that I think about it, Florida might be FSU's best win.
Also, about the BIX "co-champion" nonsense, then we can credit both teams with 1/2 a championship, which isn't enough to OSUn/Wisconsin's whole Championship. Either team jumps them.
Yep, FSU is in solely on the fact that they won the MNC last year and haven't lost.
perfectchaos007
Member
You missed my edited-in final sentence with your quote, which I will note was done 4 minutes before your post.
They've been saying they would do this for a few weeks now, and it's really a terrible idea IMO. His explanation doesn't make any sense at all. "I know we said ONE true champion, but what we meant was that the exact opposite of that is okay as well."
hah, I must have taken more than 4 minutes to type/think out my post then because I didn't see your edit until you mentioned it
chicko1983
Member
I think it was Spurrier that said at the start of the year that Saban should be winning national championships with all the recruits and talent he gets each year. I can see what hes getting at, its now kinda like a chicken and egg thing where good recruits want to go to Alabama because they are winning, getting national coverage, in the most watched conference for scouts etc. It makes it easier for Saban to recruit when 90% of people offered a scholarship there want to take it up.
The only way to know how good a coach is, is put them in a school where they have had to build the team themselves.
In terms of tactical nous, the ones I like are Spurrier, Snyder, and I did like Shaw until this year when he got too arrogant and started calling bad plays. Cost me a lot of money!
The only way to know how good a coach is, is put them in a school where they have had to build the team themselves.
In terms of tactical nous, the ones I like are Spurrier, Snyder, and I did like Shaw until this year when he got too arrogant and started calling bad plays. Cost me a lot of money!
Either (1) stealing money or (2) receiving checks in exchange for his silence.
Have you not seen what both LSU and Alabama were before Saban arrived? To discount what he's done is absolutely ludicrous. He took over for Gary "fucking" Dinardo at LSU and Mike "nobody else wants the job" Shula at Alabama, neither of which were doing anything. Sure Alabama had some historical name recognition, but hadn't really done shit on a national stage for 4 coaches.
I recall a loss to OSU in 2011 when you only threw 4 passes.
OSU winning is not so far-fetched. Wisconsin has been playing sloppy the last few weeks with a lot of turnovers. It is clearly possible to stop or at least significantly slow-down Melvin Gordon by putting 10 in the box and run-blitzing, and it usually takes Andy Ludwig most of 2 quarters to notice it is happening. It really comes down to whether your corners can handle playing on an island against our mediocre passing game and whether your linebackers and safeties can stay in their gaps to prevent Gordon from getting to the open field.
Look, Minnesota played the game pretty close last week. Is your QB significantly worse than Mitch Leidner?
Stanford didn't play Stanford Football. Problem solved.
Missouri's conference victories have a conference record of 17-39
Looking at the 6 current teams in contention:
Alabama 26-30 (lost to 5-3 Ole Miss)
Oregon 27-36 (lost to 7-2 Arizona)
Florida State 26-38 (beat the Criminal Justice System)
TCU 28-32 (minus 0-8 Iowa State)
Baylor 23-36 (minus 7-1 Kansas State)
Ohio State 28-36 (Undefeated when not playing the ACCACCACC)
chicko1983
Member
Honestly I did not see LSU or Bama before Saban arrived.
Im not saying he is a bad coach, I think he is one of the best coaches and recruiters, however, I agreed with Spurrier's quote:
So its arguable that Saban doesnt actually get the best out of his recruits. I prefer coaches that get more than expected out of his players, that is what I was trying to say.
bucknuticus
Member
High school recrutiing rankings are not really a good thing to base things off, sure take some stock into it, but theyre not usually great. Players from schools outside the power football states can dominate inferior opponents all season in look good. Offensive linemen are probably the biggest example of bad recruiting rankings. Oline men dont go up against 4 250lb+ guys eveyr single week, hell theyll be lucky if they go up agaist 1 guy whos 250lb in a month.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Spurrier's cool and all, but he's really just trolling.
Even the best coaches aren't going to get the best of the players 100% of the time. It only takes one game, or even one moment in a game, to be the difference between a championship and second place, and they're still dealing with 18-22 year olds who can often be knuckleheads and who might not pan out quite like expected.
Regardless, Saban did wonders at LSU and turned Alabama into a contender immediately. I want to say it was his second year there that they won the championship, a season which started with them being ranked somewhere around 20 and pulling off an upset over a then-top 10 Clemson team in the season opener in Atlanta.
Edit: I got my years mixed up. They got back on the map with that Clemson upset, but the championship was the following season when they opened with a win against a different highly-rated ACC opponent, Virginia Tech.
There are quite a few schools out there that, given their prestige/history, could be recruiting like Saban is at Alabama but aren't, though; USC, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, etc. Saban is the difference.
Even if you wanted to totally discount his coaching and say he ONLY wins because of his players, recruiting is as much a part of the job as anything else is, just like drafting well, signing the right free agents, cap management, etc. is a huge part of the job in the NFL. Personnel management is a legitimate thing to hire somebody for. Mack Brown was never known as an Xs and Os genius but if you offered his on the field results at Texas to any (not completely delusional) fanbase in the country they would take it.
Everybody likes the hard hat, underdog, "take a team of no-names and lead them to victory!" type of coach, but at the end of the day you'd rather have the "underachieving" coach with a national title than the "overachieving" coach with a 3rd place average conference finish.
The difference between #1 and #5 in recruiting, isn't really much at all. Maybe only one or 2 of those years where Alabama was way ahead of the rest, but most of the years it ends up interchangeable.
Then you got development, and whether the recruiting services were right about players. Some players are just not deserving of 5-4 star ratings, and you might not find out till they get into practice. Some players get injured, some break the law and go to Auburn.
The teams that either denied Alabama an SEC Championship (Florida 08), or entrance into the SEC CG (11 LSU and 13 Auburn) went to the National Championship game (Florida 08 winning, and the other 2 losing)
2010 is the outlier, with injuries and the magic of Stephen Garcia and Mark Barron's bum shoulder (against future SEC Champion and National Champion Auburn team)
So having Dynasty type numbers/records while competing in conference with other National championship caliber teams in an age of overwhelming parity, maybe he's done something right.
Then you got development, and whether the recruiting services were right about players. Some players are just not deserving of 5-4 star ratings, and you might not find out till they get into practice. Some players get injured, some break the law and go to Auburn.
The teams that either denied Alabama an SEC Championship (Florida 08), or entrance into the SEC CG (11 LSU and 13 Auburn) went to the National Championship game (Florida 08 winning, and the other 2 losing
)2010 is the outlier, with injuries and the magic of Stephen Garcia and Mark Barron's bum shoulder (against future SEC Champion and National Champion Auburn team)
So having Dynasty type numbers/records while competing in conference with other National championship caliber teams in an age of overwhelming parity, maybe he's done something right.
Go back and take a look at LSU pre-Saban and Alabama pre-Saban.
It may be arguable, but only just barely. It's not as if the teams he's squared off against in the SEC have all had sub-par recruiting classes. LSU and Auburn, in particular, have had top 5 - 10 recruiting classes, in the West. And, to be quite frank, if winning 3 MNCs in 4 years is considered "underachieving," then I hope he continues to underachieve for the rest of his tenure.
Agree on offensive linemen being the position you should least pay attention to recruiting rankings, though probably not for the same exact reason because other positions have that type of ability mismatch as well (ex. WRs going from being the fastest guy in their high school district to being the 5th fastest guy in their college position group).
Another component is that a lot of high school OL bodies just aren't developed enough to play right away. There is a ton of projection to do with players at those positions, so the differences in what exactly each coaching staff likes to see in their OL recruits mean that the projections can vary wildly. You see a pretty good number of lowly ranked 240 or 250lb OL getting constant attention from some big schools every season, for instance, while other big schools wouldn't consider the same guy at all. An undersized DT can always play DE or OLB until they develop enough, and thus can be ranked on multiple criteria coming out of high school, but an underdeveloped OL generally just looks like an underdeveloped OL (outside of the odd TE time here and there).
You also have a lot of rankings initially start out low due to a player's high school junior season before they put on an extra 30 pounds and turn into a beast. Every year around this time you usually see a ton of offers going out to OL that you've never heard of but when you look into it you realize they have 10-20 total offers and 15+ of them came in the last two weeks.
Randolph Freelander
Member
College football, everybody.
WHY DO WE HAVE A COMMITTEE TO CHOOSE 4 TEAMS
The ONLY reason I can think of is that it's to protect older schools' money and the bowls' money by not letting an unproven team with an unknown fanbase traveling ability into one until it's known how well they'll travel (ie spend money) to get to the bowl (and give the bowl money)
If so, that rule would have probably been drawn up with the idea that a school new to the division would be borderline at 6 or 7 wins and free the bowl from taking any required entrant. With a record like that they should get a bowl, though.
Frustrated_Grunt
Member
Might as well hold a special nationwide election to determine the 4th spot.
Totally separate issue. Should have had the "old" system select 4 teams.
This dude ain't handsome enough to be the #1 QB/player in the country.
Kind of amazing that he's going to UCLA rather than USC.
He's got BigTen good looks.
Randolph Freelander
Member
"FACT: Baylor would vote to cut Medicare."
"Our children and grandchildren can't afford for Ohio State to go to and lose yet another championship."
"Obama picked TCU to win every week. Who would you rather pick?"
perfectchaos007
Member
The former politicians on the committee expect lobbyists and bribes. Any team currently in the top 10 should lawyer up, lobby up, and pony up some cash. Maybe throw in a nice refurbished trans-am to each member for good measure. all under the table of course.
This ethos would appeal to republicans on the board like Condi, but what about the liberals?
This ethos would appeal to republicans on the board like Condi, but what about the liberals?
First off, the AP poll wasn't part of the BCS selection for most of the BCS's existence. Secondly, it's asinine to have a committee for four teams, especially when the committee seems to generally agree with the media poll anyway.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Off year. The liberals don't vote.
Randolph Freelander
Member
USA Today just posted an article on the greatest injustice of our time, Georgia Southern's inability to go bowling.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/sunbelt/2014/12/01/georgia-southern-bowl-waiver-ncaa-fbs-school-tom-kleinlein/19740319/USAToday said:
perfectchaos007
Member
UTSA faced the same predicament last year after finishing 8-4. Don't expect much from the NCAA
timetokill
Banned
So is anybody putting up the Week 15 thread? mre?
sf2fanatic
Member
Neuheisel may be an ok coach but a great recruit. He probably told Mora about himThis dude ain't handsome enough to be the #1 QB/player in the country.
Kind of amazing that he's going to UCLA rather than USC.
chicko1983
Member
So its pretty much consensus that if FSU lose this weekend, they are out of the top 4.
If Alabama or Oregon lose, will they be out of the top 4?
If Alabama or Oregon lose, will they be out of the top 4?
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