I thought it would be interesting to see who the top 4 teams were in the BCS rankings. So, I have replicated the BCS rankings just to see what they'd look like this year in the first year of the CFB playoff.
Three caveats:
1. The formula I used is identical to that of the 2004 season, and very nearly the same as what has been used since 2005. The difference being that in 2004 the AP poll was used, while from 2005-2013, the Harris poll was used to determine one half of the human component
2. The BCS formula used Sagarin's "Predictor" ranking in its computation. I am using Sagarin's final ranking, which is a synthesis of the Predictor method along with two other methods
3. Billingsly might have changed his formula this year as well. Regardless, I am using the same computers as what the BCS used, but some might be incorporating MOV (margin of victory) now; Sagarin's synthesis ranking definitely incorporates MOV
The BCS ranking is the average of three components: AP poll component, Coaches poll component, and Computer component.
1. A team's AP poll component is determined by dividing the team's AP points by the maximum number of AP points (25*number of AP voters)
2. A team's Coaches poll component is determined by dividing the team's Coaches points by the maximum number of Coaches points (25*number of Coachs voters)
3. A team's Computer component is determined by dropping the highest and lowest computer, converting each of the remaining computer rankings to a point value (1=25,2=24,...25=1), summing those 4 remaining values and dividing by 100.
Here is the would be BCS ranking following Week 7 of the 2014 College Football Season:
Code:
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RANK | TEAM | AP | USA | MAS | COL | BIL | AND | WOL | SAG | APscore | USAscore | Comp | BCS |
1 | Mississippi St | 1480 | 1490 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.98667 | 0.96129 | 0.950 | 0.96599 |
2 | Mississippi | 1413 | 1436 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.94200 | 0.92645 | 0.970 | 0.94615 |
3 | Florida St | 1415 | 1489 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 0.94333 | 0.96065 | 0.920 | 0.94133 |
4 | Baylor | 1317 | 1392 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0.87800 | 0.89806 | 0.840 | 0.87202 |
5 | Notre Dame | 1228 | 1292 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 0.81867 | 0.83355 | 0.760 | 0.80407 |
6 | Auburn | 1144 | 1111 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0.76267 | 0.71677 | 0.870 | 0.78315 |
7 | Alabama | 1068 | 1121 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 0.71200 | 0.72323 | 0.780 | 0.73841 |
8 | Oregon | 1014 | 1017 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 0.67600 | 0.65613 | 0.690 | 0.67404 |
9 | Georgia | 981 | 1013 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 0.65400 | 0.65355 | 0.630 | 0.64585 |
10 | Michigan St | 1015 | 1129 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 0.67667 | 0.72839 | 0.530 | 0.64502 |
11 | Oklahoma | 935 | 1005 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0.62333 | 0.64839 | 0.650 | 0.64057 |
12 | TCU | 917 | 824 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 27 | 8 | 0.61133 | 0.53161 | 0.550 | 0.56432 |
13 | Kansas St | 626 | 710 | 19 | 20 | 28 | 26 | 12 | 17 | 0.41733 | 0.45806 | 0.220 | 0.36513 |
14 | Ohio St | 648 | 737 | 21 | 34 | 14 | 35 | 29 | 15 | 0.43200 | 0.47548 | 0.160 | 0.35583 |
15 | Arizona | 590 | 502 | 23 | 9 | 22 | 9 | 22 | 32 | 0.39333 | 0.32387 | 0.280 | 0.33240 |
16 | Oklahoma St | 620 | 610 | 17 | 26 | 33 | 25 | 9 | 29 | 0.41333 | 0.39355 | 0.100 | 0.30229 |
17 | Texas A&M | 264 | 269 | 11 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 0.17600 | 0.17355 | 0.520 | 0.28985 |
18 | Arizona St | 459 | 471 | 24 | 27 | 18 | 22 | 18 | 28 | 0.30600 | 0.30387 | 0.140 | 0.24996 |
19 | Nebraska | 402 | 433 | 25 | 16 | 15 | 23 | 25 | 24 | 0.26800 | 0.27935 | 0.160 | 0.23578 |
20 | Stanford | 223 | 344 | 16 | 39 | 17 | 37 | 16 | 16 | 0.14867 | 0.22194 | 0.290 | 0.22020 |
21 | East Carolina | 449 | 518 | 34 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 45 | 0.29933 | 0.33419 | 0.000 | 0.21118 |
22 | USC | 258 | 125 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 13 | 20 | 21 | 0.17200 | 0.08065 | 0.260 | 0.17088 |
23 | Clemson | 188 | 244 | 13 | 28 | 20 | 31 | 19 | 18 | 0.12533 | 0.15742 | 0.210 | 0.16425 |
24 | LSU | 67 | 80 | 14 | 22 | 16 | 24 | 17 | 12 | 0.04467 | 0.05161 | 0.350 | 0.14876 |
25 | UCLA | 110 | 116 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 15 | 23 | 20 | 0.07333 | 0.07484 | 0.220 | 0.12272 |
26 | Marshall | 148 | 153 | 36 | 10 | 27 | 12 | 44 | 35 | 0.09867 | 0.09871 | 0.140 | 0.11246 |
27 | Utah | 305 | 161 | 28 | 32 | 21 | 27 | 45 | 23 | 0.20333 | 0.10387 | 0.030 | 0.11240 |
28 | Minnesota | 36 | 78 | 38 | 17 | 38 | 18 | 31 | 41 | 0.02400 | 0.05032 | 0.080 | 0.05144 |
29 | Duke | 45 | 70 | 35 | 30 | 23 | 33 | 24 | 37 | 0.03000 | 0.04516 | 0.020 | 0.03172 |
30 | Georgia Tech | 11 | 14 | 32 | 15 | 26 | 19 | 26 | 50 | 0.00733 | 0.00903 | 0.070 | 0.02879 |
31 | Washington | 22 | 70 | 31 | 24 | 24 | 32 | 28 | 34 | 0.01467 | 0.04516 | 0.020 | 0.02661 |
32 | Kentucky | 36 | 37 | 41 | 25 | 40 | 20 | 39 | 44 | 0.02400 | 0.02387 | 0.010 | 0.01929 |
33 | Florida | 0 | 0 | 33 | 35 | 29 | 21 | 48 | 19 | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | 0.050 | 0.01667 |
34 | Missouri | 0 | 5 | 22 | 36 | 34 | 38 | 15 | 36 | 0.00000 | 0.00323 | 0.040 | 0.01441 |
35 | West Virginia | 27 | 17 | 39 | 42 | 44 | 39 | 46 | 31 | 0.01800 | 0.01097 | 0.000 | 0.00966 |
36 | Wisconsin | 1 | 34 | 40 | 52 | 46 | 50 | 36 | 26 | 0.00067 | 0.02194 | 0.000 | 0.00753 |
37 | Iowa | 6 | 15 | 42 | 38 | 31 | 43 | 34 | 39 | 0.00400 | 0.00968 | 0.000 | 0.00456 |
38 | Arkansas | 10 | 0 | 30 | 58 | 54 | 53 | 42 | 25 | 0.00667 | 0.00000 | 0.000 | 0.00222 |
39 | Oregon St | 0 | 10 | 47 | 40 | 42 | 36 | 40 | 47 | 0.00000 | 0.00645 | 0.000 | 0.00215 |
40 | Rutgers | 7 | 1 | 58 | 31 | 50 | 29 | 60 | 72 | 0.00467 | 0.00065 | 0.000 | 0.00177 |
41 | Colorado St | 3 | 5 | 51 | 23 | 37 | 28 | 53 | 57 | 0.00200 | 0.00323 | 0.000 | 0.00174 |
42 | Louisville | 7 | 0 | 27 | 44 | 48 | 44 | 33 | 27 | 0.00467 | 0.00000 | 0.000 | 0.00156 |
43 | BYU | 0 | 2 | 43 | 48 | 36 | 46 | 49 | 38 | 0.00000 | 0.00129 | 0.000 | 0.00043 |
44 | South Carolina | 1 | 0 | 26 | 46 | 53 | 34 | 21 | 30 | 0.00067 | 0.00000 | 0.000 | 0.00022 |
45 | Virginia | 1 | 0 | 48 | 53 | 47 | 54 | 56 | 51 | 0.00067 | 0.00000 | 0.000 | 0.00022 |
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AP Poll Source =
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/polls?poll=1 | Last Updated: 10/12/2014
Coaches Poll Source =
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/polls?poll=2 | Last Updated: 10/12/2014
Comp. Rankings Source =
http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm | Compiled by Kenneth Massey, Tue Oct 14 15:30:42 2014